SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 12_2024
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X5 event observed at 0123 UTC from Region 3664 (S18W62).
In addition, AR3664 produced the following M-class flares on May 11
● M3 at 10:18 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Africa
● M1.6 at 10:56 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa
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● Extreme G5 geomagnetic storm (Kp9)
Threshold Reached: 11:28 UTC
● X1.5 at 11:44 UTC the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Africa
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● Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8)
Threshold Reached: 12:37 UTC
● M1.7 at 13:49 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean
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● M8.7 at 15:25 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over West Atlantic Ocean
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● Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
Threshold Reached: 15:45 UTC
● Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8)
Threshold Reached: 16:47 UTC
● Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
Threshold Reached: 19:37 UTC
● M1.2 at 20:41 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over East Pacific Ocean
The total number of sunspots has decreased to 148 of which 68 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows:
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AR3666 is gone
AR3664 Maintains a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. Its size is 2100MH
NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 95% chance of M flares and 75% chance of X flares.
● Auroral Activity
The geomagnetic field has been severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. On May 11 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 993 km/s (very high speed) at 14:33 UTC. Total IMF reached 73 nT at 23:05 UTC
Aurora Oval Bz: 2.77 nT North. Radiation Storm has subsided.
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● Current Conditions at 05:17 UTC on May 12
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7) in progress. The solar wind has a high speed of 894 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 2.77 the radiation storm has subsided however good conditions exist for aurora sightings at high and low latitudes.
Aurora in Yucatan, Mexican South East.
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On May 11 Solar activity is likely to be high with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at severe storm levels.
▪︎
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
Threshold Reached: 04:33 UTC
▪Solar wind speed record: 894 km/sec (high speed)
▪︎ density: 4 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.11 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M3 0045 UT May12
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -6.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 148 (SN 155 May 11)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. .
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