SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 14_2024
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6.6 event observed at 0944 UTC from Region 3664 (S19W87). The flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Africa
AR3664 produced other M-class flares
● M1.2 at 08:20 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region.
● M1.4 at 08:29 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region.
● M4.8 at 09:33 UTC The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa.
● M3.6 at 13:11 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Americas
● M1 at 17:47 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Americas
● M1.5 at 21:59 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean
The total number of sunspots has increased to 207 of which 78 of them are grouped into 14 active regions as follows:
AR3664 is decaying but maintains a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. AR3676 has developed a delta component that harbors energy for strong X-class flares while AR3675 & AR3679 have a beta-gamma-class magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares
NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 80% chance of M flares and 40% chance of X flares.
● Auroral Activity
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to moderate storm levels for the past 24 hours. On May 13 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 891 km/s (very high speed) at 22:42 UTC. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22:04 UTC
Aurora Oval Bz: 2.7 nT North
● Current Conditions at 03:20 UTC on May 14
Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 3 (unsettled) The solar wind has a high speed of 563 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 2.7 Good conditions are not expected for aurora sightings at high latitudes. AR3664 does not say goodbye without leaving a couple of flares: M2.5 at 01:48 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over East Asia and Pacific Ocean then X1.7 at 02:09 the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over East Asia and Pacific Ocean. Moderate S2 Solar Radiation Storm (Infrequent effects on HF radio through polar regions and satellite operations)
On May 14 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm levels.
▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 563 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 1.3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : X1 0209 UT May14
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -10% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 207 (SN 186 May 13)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. .
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