Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 10_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at 1314 UTC from Region 3575. See previous post. On the other hand AR3576 produced a M1.2 event observed at 18:00 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean. In the following image we can also see a Moderate S2 Solar Radiation Storm which caused effects on HF radio through polar regions and satellite operations. (Red and green on polar areas) this was due to the X flare.

​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 105 of which 36 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows: AR3571, AR3572, AR3574, AR3576, AR3577, AR3579, AR3580, AR3581

AR3565 & AR3578 are gone

NOAA maintains its forecast for the next 24 hours at: 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance for M flares and 25% chance for X flares. This is due to the fact that the colossal sunspot AR3576 continues with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class solar flares. In the last 24 hours this active region increased its size to 710 MH (yesterday it had an area of 670 MH) however it decreased its number of sunspots to 27 after having recorded 44.
​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (Kp1) for the past 24 hours. On February 09 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 09:06 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20:53 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.51 nT North

● Current Conditions at 05:21 UTC on February 10

We see that the solar wind velocity remains at Elevated levels and due to the S2 Solar Radiation Storm the number of protons per cubic centimeter has increased, however the magnetosphere remains undisturbed at Kp1 level.​

PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: An S2-class radiation storm is underway following today's strong X3.4-class solar flare... Energetic solar protons raining down on Earth's upper atmosphere are causing a polar cap absorption event, interfering with the reception of shortwave radio signals at high latitudes. SpaceWeather.com​

The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has a low impact (4nT) on the Earth's magnetic field at this time so there is not chance of auroral activity. The last recorded solar flare was a M3.4 at 03:54 on February 10 from a unnumbered region. The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Australia. The first images of the event show that there was a coronal mass ejection not Earth directed.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 416 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 7.57 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M3.44 at 03:54 UTC


▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 105 (SN 149 February 08)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.......
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[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 11_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. After the M3.4 flare from an incoming sunspot region (now AR3584) on the Sun's eastern limb:​

The last recorded solar flare was a M3.4 at 03:54 on February 10 from a unnumbered region. The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Australia. The first images of the event show that there was a coronal mass ejection not Earth directed.​

And at 23:07 UTC sunspot AR3576 generated an M8.9 near X-class flare which caused a Moderate R2 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean.​

SOLAR RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS: For the second day in a row, energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. This is called a "solar radiation storm," and it is currently a category S2 event. A data-plot from NOAA's GOES-18 satellite shows how protons surged around our planet just after yesterday's X-class solar flare. SpaceWeather.com​

The following image shows the impact of M8.9 and the radiation storm at the poles.

​

ALMOST-X FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an M9-class solar flare from Earth-facing sunspot AR3576 (Feb 10th @ 2703 UT). This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows that the blast was directly facing Earth:​

​

The powerful explosion was only percentage points from category X, so any CME it may have thrown in our direction probably has plenty of power. We don't yet know for sure that such a CME exists. Stay tuned for confirmation from SOHO coronagraphs in the hours ahead. SpaceWeather.com​

The total number of sunspots has increased to 146 of which 56 of them are grouped into 9 active regions as follows: AR3571, AR3574 AR3576, AR3579, AR3580, AR3581 & new regions AR3582, AR3583, AR3584​

AR3572 & AR3577 are gone

NOAA maintains its forecast for the next 24 hours at: 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance for M flares and has reduced to 15% chance for X flares. As has been reported during the week, the colossal sunspot AR3576 continues with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class solar flares. (It has produced an almost X flare) This region has again increased in size and now has an area of 730 MH (710 MH yesterday) however it decreased its number of sunspots from 44 to 36​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (Kp1) to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On February 10 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 21:47 UTC Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21:47 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -6.14 nT South

● Current Conditions at 05:31 UTC on February 11

Solar wind velocity remains at Elevated levels but although the S2 Solar Radiation Storm continues the number of protons per cubic centimeter has decreased. The impact of a CME was also detected around 01:23 UTC. These factors are contributing to the active conditions (kp4) which reached threshold at 02:20 UTC. The Aurora Oval shows us that there are conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. The last recorded solar flare was C3 at 01:54​

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 478 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.75 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 01:54 UT Feb 10
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 146 (SN 105 February 10)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.......
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SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 12_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6.5 from AR3576 on February 12 at 03:48 UTC the event generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over South East Asia
​

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Big sunspot AR3576 erupted yesterday (Feb 10th @ 2703 UT), producing an M9-class solar flare only percentage points from category X. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:​

​

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere. This, in turn, caused a strong shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare's peak.​

Of greater interest is the coronal mass ejection (CME). New images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory show an assymetric halo CME with an Earth-directed component. A preliminary NASA model predicts it will reach Earth on Feb. 13th:​

SpaceWeather.com


The total number of sunspots has decreased to 144 of which 75 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows: AR3571, AR3574 AR3576, AR3579, AR3581, AR3582, AR3583 & AR3584

AR3580 is gone

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours at: 99% chance for C flares, 65% chance for M flares and has reduced to 20% chance for X flares. Sunspot AR3576 continues with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class solar flares. This region has again increased in size and now has an area of 740 MH (730 MH yesterday) and it has creased its number of sunspots from 36 to 44​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (Kp1) to active levels (kp4) for the past 24 hours. On February 11 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 17:03 UTC Total IMF reached 19 nT at 01:56 UTC which is a strong impact to the Earth's magnetic field. (Could we expect a significant seismic event in the next few days? There is potential, we will have to wait and see)​

EARTH TO BE HIT BY 3 CMEs ALMOST SIMULTANEOUSLY: The NOAA models show 3 CMES heading towards Earth (green dot) with velocities of over 500 km/s. They look as though they will approach us on the morning of the 13th February. We may get some spectacular aurora at high latitudes.​

Keith Strong vía X

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.97 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:58 UTC on February 12

The solar wind speed has increased to High speed and the Solar Radiation Storm continues at the poles so the number of protons per cubic centimeter is at moderate levels. The auroral oval shows that conditions exist for auroral sightings at high latitudes. The last recorded solar flare was M6 at 03:48 UTC.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 524 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 11 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare:M6 0348 UT Feb12
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 144 (SN 146 February 11)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.......
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SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 13_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. After the M6 flare at 03:48 UTC from AR3576 this same sunspot produced two other lower level M-class flares.

● M1.1 at 13:08 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean
​

● M1.4 at 15:48 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America

A third M2.6 class flare at 21:17 was generated by an as yet unnumbered sunspot located on the far side of the western limb.

The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean​

SOLAR RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS:
An S2-class solar radiation storm is in progress on Feb. 13th. It started yesterday when an explosion on the sun's southwestern limb hurled a blizzard of energetic protons toward Earth. Twenty-four hours later, they're still coming. The storm is rich in "hard protons" wiith energies greater than 50 MeV. It is causing a shortwave radio blackout inside the Arctic Circle and speckling the cameras of some Earth-orbiting satellites. SpaceWeather.com​

The total number of sunspots has increased to 153 of which 83 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3571, AR3576, AR3579, AR3581, AR3582, AR3583 & AR3584

AR3574 is gone

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours by increasing the percentages for M and X flares as follows: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares, and 25% chance of X flares. Sunspot AR3576 continues with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class solar flares while AR3583 has developed a delta component that harbors energy for M-class flares. AR3576 has decreased its size to 420MH​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (Kp1) levels for the past 24 hours. On February 12 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 705 km/s (High speed) at 06:46 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23:40 UTC

The strong 19nT Interplanetary Magnetic Field coincided with a strong M6.1 earthquake in the volcano region of Japan.​

Total IMF reached 19 nT at 01:56 UTC which is a strong impact to the Earth's magnetic field. (Could we expect a significant seismic event in the next few days? There is potential, we will have to wait and see)

IS A CANNIBAL CME' COMING? Since Feb. 7th, the sun has hurled multiple CMEs into space. A handful of them might hit Earth this week. A new NOAA forecast model shows at least three solar storm clouds approaching for strikes on Feb. 13th:​

Click to play the animated forecast model​

The closely-spaced arrival of these three CMEs could spark G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with high-latitude auroras in northern Europe, Canada, and northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.​

There's a chance (slim but non-zero) that these CMEs will pile up to form a Cannibal CME. This happens when one fast-moving CME sweeps up slower-moving CMEs in front of it. Cannibal CMEs typically contain strong shocks and enhanced magnetic fields that do a good job sparking geomagnetic storms. If such a pile-up occurs, the combined strike could cause a G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm with auroras at mid-latitudes. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.25 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:45 UTC on February 13

After recording a high speed of 700km/s the solar wind speed returned to moderate levels of 400 km/s causing a proton breeze to the earth. The Solar Radiation Storm continues at the poles so the auroral oval shows conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. The last recorded solar flare was M2.6 at 21:17 UTC.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1757124083815223580

https://twitter.com/x/status/1757232359273791688

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 484 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 13 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 2224 UT Feb12
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.9% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 153 (SN 144 February 12)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 14_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07:59 UTC
​

YESTERDAY'S EXPLOSIONS--ALL OF THEM: Yesterday, Feb. 12th, the sun produced 9 solar flares (one was almost an X-flare) and multiple filament eruptions. Senol Sanli of Bursa, Turkey, combined all of them into a single 24-hour image:​

Click to view a time-stamped version of this image​

"This is every explosion on Feb. 12th as recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory," he explains. "I made this composite view using the observatory's 304 Å images, which show plasma at a temperature of 50,000 K."​

The circled explosion, with the intense central bright spot, is the source of an ongoing S1-class radiation storm. As Solar Max approaches, days like this will become more common. SpaceWeather.com​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 122 of which 63 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3576, AR3579, AR3581, AR3582, AR3583, AR3584 & new region AR3585​

AR3571 is gone

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours by decreasing the percentages for M and X flares as follows: 99% chance of C flares, 55% chance of M flares, and 15% chance of X flares. This is the reason: Sunspot AR3576 is decaying although it continues with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field the number of sunspots composing this region has decreased to 19 while its area expanded again to 600MH. On the other hand AR3583 continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels (Kp4) levels for the past 24 hours. On February 13 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s (Moderately High speed) at 01:55 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03:45 UTC
​

THE FIRST CME HAS ARRIVED: The first of potentially several incoming CMEs hit Earth today at 0230 UT. The initial impact was so weak it was almost undetectable. Nevertheless, geomagnetic unrest is building as Earth moves deeper into the CME's wake. Another, stronger impact will be necessary to push Earth's magnetic field into a state of full-fledged storming. NOAA forecast models suggest that could happen later today. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.23 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:30UTC on February 14

Solar wind speed has returned to high speed levels of over 500km/s causing, along with cannibal CMEs, geospace instability. The Solar Radiation Storm has not subsided, so conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes persist. The last recorded solar flare was M1 at 03:10 UTC from region 3582, the flare generated a minor R1 radio blackout over Australia. In the following image we can see the radiation impact in Australia and the Solar Radiation Storm in the poles.
​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 501 km/sec (Moderately High speed)
▪︎ density: 6.4 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 0310 UT Feb14
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.4 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 122 (SN 153 February 13)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 15_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 0310 UTC from Region 3582 (N06W40) See previous post.​

SOLAR RADIATION STORM UPDATE: For the third day in a row, energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. However, the storm is subsiding. It is now a minor S1-class event. The storm's one lingering effect is a polar cap absorption event (PCA):​

​

Red zones in this global map show where shortwave radio transmissions are being absorbed. Frequencies below 15 MHz are almost completely blacked out, while anything below 35 MHz is being attentuated, at least a little.​

This is a direct result of the ongoing solar radiation storm. Earth's magnetic field funnels the proton rain toward the poles where their ionizing effect causes the absorption of shortwave radio. The south pole is more strongly effected than the north pole because it is now summer in the south; that side of Earth is tilted into the radiation storm. SpaceWeather.com​

The total number of sunspots has increased to 123 of which 53 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3576, AR3581, AR3582, AR3583, AR3584, AR3585 & AR3586

AR3579 is gone

NOAA forecast for the next 24 hours remains at 99% chance of C flares, 55% chance of M flares, and 15% chance of X flares. Sunspot AR3576 continues with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field but the number of sunspots composing this region has decreased to 18 while its area expanded again to 660MH.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) levels for the past 24 hours. On February 14 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s (Moderately High speed) at 08:53 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06:07 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.41 nT North

● Current Conditions at 05:02 UTC on February 15

The solar wind speed has remained at elevated levels of over 400km/s. The solar radiation storm is subsiding and conditions for aurora sighting at high latitudes are not optimal. The last recorded solar flare was C3 00:51 UTC on Feb 15​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 430 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 0051 UT Feb15
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.7 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 123 (SN 122 February 14)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 16_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 17:07 UTC from departing Region 3576 (S16W82) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America

​

SPECTACULAR EXPLOSION ON NORTHEAST LIMB OF THE SUN: This jet sent 50,000K plasma (which cool for the Sun!) soaring over 150,000 km up into the solar corona. Interestingly, it was hardly visible in higher temperatures. So. this was primarily a cool phenomenon. Note size of Earth.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758282512584118333

The total number of sunspots has increased to 151 of which 51 of them are grouped into 10 active regions as follows:AR3576, AR3581 AR3582, AR3583, AR3584, AR3585, AR3586 & new regions AR3587, AR3588 & AR3589

NOAA forecast for the next 24 hours 99% chance of C flares, 55% chance of M flares, and 15% chance of X flares.

Departing sunspot AR3576 is decaying, it has lost its delta component and now its magnetic field is beta-gamma which harbors energy for M-class flares. The number of sunspots composing this region also decreased to 12 while its area is 510MH its maximum size was 740MH on February 11. As reported by SpaceWeather, this region still poses danger by remaining magnetically connected to the Earth.​

THE DANGER OF SUNSPOTS THAT DON'T FACE EARTH: Big sunspot AR3576 is about to disappear over the sun's western limb. This makes it uniquely dangerous. Scroll past this farewell shot from astronomer Philippe Tosi to find out why:​

​

Sunspots located near the sun's western limb are magnetically connected to Earth. The sun's magnetic field spirals around like a lawn sprinker--a shape known as the "Parker spiral." Look at this diagram. Lines of magnetic force coming out of the western limb curve around and touch our planet.

AR3576 is now in the "danger zone." If there is an eruption today, or in the next couple of days, debris may be funneled back to Earth by the Parker spiral. The resulting radiation storm could pepper satellites with high-energy protons, fogging cameras and causing reboots of onboard electronics. At such times, shortwave radio propagation can become difficult to impossible especially around the poles. SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) levels for the past 24 hours. On February 15 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s (Moderately High speed) at 02:08 UTC Total IMF reached 9 nT at 00:34 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CANCELED:
Somehow, Earth threaded the needle between at least three CMEs. The storm clouds were supposed to hit Earth on Feb. 13th, then 14th, now maybe not at all. Only one barely detectable impact during the early hours of Feb. 13th might have been associated with the expected CMEs, and it did not cause a geomagnetic storm. The geomagnetic storm watch is canceled. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.35 nT South
.
● Current Conditions at 04:33 UTC on February 16

The solar wind speed is back to normal levels of around 300km/s. The solar radiation storm is subsiding and according to the auroral oval map conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes are slightly optimal, which would have improved with a geomagnetic storm which was cancelled. There are low levels of protons per cubic centimeter in the atmosphere and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field had low impact. The last recorded solar flare was M1.5 from region 3576 at 02:51 UTC on February 16. The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Australia. It appears that there was no associated CME

​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 389 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 1.2 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.64 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 02:51 UT Feb16
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -6.4 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 151 (SN 123 February 15)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

"AR3576 is now in the "danger zone." If there is an eruption today, or in the next couple of days, debris may be funneled back to Earth by the Parker spiral."

There was indeed an eruption from this sunspot, time to open our cosmic umbrella maybe :

07:12 UTC - Solar flare​

Major X2.56 flare from sunspot region 3576

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 17_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 06:53 UTC from Region 3576 (S16W98). The flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Indian Ocean.


Gorgeous X-class flare fortunately we have friends in the "celestial hosts"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758522130721902751

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758518165850509597

Hours later the same region said so long with an M3 class flare at 22:09 UTC of the same February 16. The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean


​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 97 of which 29 of them are grouped into 9 active regions as follows: AR3581, AR3582 AR3583, AR3584, AR3585, AR3586, AR3587, AR3588 & AR3589

AR3576 is gone

NOAA forecast for the next 24 hours 90% chance of C flares, 60% chance of M flares, and 15% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.
​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) levels for the past 24 hours. On February 16 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s (Elevated speed) at 23:50 UTC Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11:43 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.92 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on February 17

The solar wind speed is currently at elevated levels of about 450km/s. The solar radiation storm at the poles now persists fed by the X-class flare, which is why the auroral oval map shows conditions for auroral sightings at high latitudes. There are low levels of protons per cubic centimeter in the atmosphere and the interplanetary magnetic field had low impact on the Earth's magnetic field. The last recorded solar flare was M3.0 from the 3576 region already on the far side of the sun.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 457 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.85 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M3 2209 UT Feb16
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.7 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 97 (SN 151 February 16)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 18_2024

Solar activity has remained at low levels during the last 24 hours after the M3 event at 2209 UTC (see previous report).
​

A RARE ERUPTION FROM THE SOUTH POLE: Most explosions on the sun happen near the equator where sunspots tend to cluster. Today, however, something blew up 90 degrees away near the sun's south pole:​

​

The polar blast propelled a bright CME straight down, out of the plane of the solar system. No planet will be struck. Although if a comet is below the sun (comets can go there) it could have its tail ripped off by the solar storm cloud.​

This rare eruption appears to be linked to an unstable polar crown filament--a twisted strand of magnetism circling the sun's south pole. Solar astronomers have known about these circular filaments for more than a century. Long-term studies show that they shrink in size near Solar Maximum, forming ever tighter circles around their respective poles.​

Indeed, that's why these rare eruptions happen most often around Solar Max. Intense magnetic fields crowded together in tight spaces love to erupt. Solar Max is coming soon, so stay tuned for more polar blasts in the months ahead. SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1759048516280738087

The total number of sunspots has increased to 100 of which 30 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3581, AR3582 AR3583, AR3584, AR3586, AR3587, AR3589​

AR3585 & AR3588 are gone

NOAA has modified its solar flare forecast for the next 24 hours because the colossal sunspot AR3576 has left the solar disk and the remaining regions have stable magnetic fields. So the forecast is as follows: 99% chance of C flares, 40% chance of M flares, and 5% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) levels for the past 24 hours. On February 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s (Elevated speed) at 23:18 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20:58 UTC
​

CME TO STRIKE VENUS: A CME launched into space by yesterday's X-flare won't strike Earth, however, it will hit Venus according to a NASA model. The strike on Venus (Feb. 18th) will probably erode a small amount of Venus's upper atmosphere. CMEs do not erode Earth's atmosphere because, unlike Venus, our planet is protected by a global magnetic field. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.89 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:04 UTC on February 18

The solar wind speed is currently at normal levels of about 300km/s. The solar radiation storm at the poles has subsided, however auroral oval map shows conditions for auroral sightings at high latitudes. There are low levels of protons per cubic centimeter in the atmosphere and the interplanetary magnetic field had moderate impact on the Earth's magnetic field. The last recorded solar flare was a C3 at 03:47 UTC​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 311 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2 42 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 8 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 0347 UT Feb18
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -6.3 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 100 (SN 97 February 17)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 19_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 18/0405Z from Region 3583 (N09W67).

New image of rare eruption from the south pole

​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 84 of which 30 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows: AR3581, AR3583 AR3584, AR3586, AR3587 & new region AR8390

​

BIG FARSIDE SUNSPOT: There's a sunspot on the farside of the sun large enough to affect the way the whole sun vibrates. Helioseismic images have pinpointed it just behind the sun's northeastern limb. The sunspot (or sunspot group) should turn to face Earth this week SpaceWeather.com​

​

AR3582 & AR3589 are gone

NOAA maintains its solar flare forecast for the next 24 hours. Thus, the forecast is as follows 99% chance of C flares, 40% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares. All regions maintain stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) levels for the past 24 hours. On February 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s (Normal speed) at 23:37 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22:17 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.48 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:55 UTC on February 19

ALL QUIET. The solar wind speed is currently at normal levels of around 300km/s. The solar radiation storm at the poles has subsided and the auroral oval map shows that no auroral conditions exist. There are very low levels of protons per cubic centimeter in the atmosphere and the interplanetary magnetic field had a low impact on the Earth's magnetic field. The last recorded solar flare was a C2 at 00:11 UTC another big sunspot assigned AR3590 will accompany us in the coming days, for the moment its magnetic field is unipolar or alpha and its size is 250MH located in the northeast (N19E78)​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 327 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.25 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0011 UT Feb19
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -6.4 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 84 (SN 100 February 18)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 20_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 0940 UTC from Region 3590 (N18E61) which continues to turn into view and is currently producing occasional C-Flares. An isolated moderate M-Flare may be possible during the next 24 hours.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1759799262706106796

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 64 of which 17 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows: AR3581, AR3583 AR3584, AR3586, AR3587 & AR8390

NOAA has updated its solar flare forecast for the next 24 hours. Thus, the forecast is as follows 99% chance of C flares, 30% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares. All regions maintain stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On February 18 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s (Normal speed) at 2317 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21:00 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.53 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:45 UTC on February 20

The solar wind speed is currently at normal levels of about 300km/s. The auroral oval map shows auroral conditions below 10% according to NOAA data. There are very low levels of protons per cubic centimeter in the atmosphere and the interplanetary magnetic field has had a low impact on the Earth's magnetic field. The last recorded solar flare was a C4 at 00:01 UTC. Now that ARR3590 is visible, it is known that it is composed of 4 sunspots with an area of 530 MH, three times larger than the Earth, and that for the moment it has a stable beta (bipolar) magnetic field. We might expect great things from AR3590​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 284 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.16 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 0001 UT Feb20
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.7 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 64 (SN 84 February 19)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 21_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 1556 UTC​

The Sun has suddenly gone very quiet with a sharp drop in sunspot number and no significant flares. Only a couple of significant CME and those in unfavorable positions on the Sun to affect Earth. This has resulted in very quiet Earth's magnetosphere with some Kp readings at zero. Keith Strong vía X ​

Think of our sun as a star
Overnight according to clocks in the Americas, a huge blast occurred on a part of the sun we can’t quite see from Earth. We know this because it produced a massive rope of plasma and magnetic fields that appeared over the solar southwest horizon. This rope is known as a prominence. It likely came from sunspot group AR3576, which recently got carried off the solar disk by the sun’s rotation. If this sunspot group stays intact, it’ll arrive back into view on the other horizon in around a couple of weeks. EarthSky.org​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 50 of which 10 of them are grouped into 4 active regions as follows: AR3581, AR3584, AR3586, & AR8390​

AR3583 & AR3587 are gone

NOAA's solar flare forecast remains at the same values for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 30% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.

AR8390 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. This region is composed of seven sunspots in an area measuring 760MH, 4.5 times the size of the Earth. NOAA forecasts that this region has a 30% chance of producing M-class flares and a 5% chance for X-class.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On February 20 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s (Normal speed) at 00:31 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19:22 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 7.45 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:49 UTC on February 21

The solar wind speed is currently at normal levels of about 280 km/s. The auroral oval map shows little chance of observing auroral conditions at high latitudes. There are low levels of protons per cubic centimeter in the atmosphere and the interplanetary magnetic field has had a moderate impact on the Earth's magnetic field. The last recorded solar flare was a C4 at 03:17 UTC. The number of sunspots has dropped to 50 and the most active region, albeit with C-class (low) flares, is AR3590 (N17E49) which increased in size from 530MH to 760MH in the last 24 hours and its magnetic field changed from bipolar (beta) to a complex region (beta-gamma) in which the positive and negative polarities are so unevenly distributed that they cannot be classified as a bipolar sunspot group.
​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 278 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.73 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9.5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 0217 UT Feb21
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.0 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 50 (SN 64 Feb 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected a strong X1.8-class solar flare (Feb. 21 @ 2307 UT). The source is giant sunspot AR3590. Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare caused a shortwave radio blackout over the western USA and Pacific Ocean.​

Above: The extreme UV flash from today's X1.8-class flare. Credit: NASA/SDO​

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760464719133933805

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 22_2024

More information on the X1.9 class flare is now available. It generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​

At 00:14 on February 22, almost an hour later, the same sunspot AR3590 produced an M1.5 flare which generated a R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean


Let's wait and see what effect these two eruptions have on the earth's climate in the coming hours but also on volcanoes and plate tectonics.​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 45 of which 26 of them are grouped into 3 active regions as follows: AR3584, AR3586 & AR8390

AR3581 is gone

NOAA's solar flare forecast has been updated for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 30% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

AR8390 is growing and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. This region is now composed of 23 sunspots in an area measuring 740MH, 4.5 times the size of the Earth. According to NOAA forecasts, this region has a 30% chance of producing M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-class flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On February 21 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s (Normal speed) at 1527 UTC Total IMF reached 9 nT at 2303 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz Bz: -4.32 nT South


● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on February 22

The solar wind speed is currently at normal levels of about 350 km/s. The auroral oval map shows little chance of observing auroral conditions at high latitudes. There are low levels of protons per cubic centimeter in the atmosphere and the interplanetary magnetic field has had a moderate impact on the Earth's magnetic field. The last recorded solar flare was an M1.5 at 00:14 UTC. The number of sunspots has decreased to 45 and the most active region remains AR3590 (N17E36) which although it decreased in size from 760MH to 740MH in the last 24 hours continued to develop sunspots in its complex which went from 7 spots to 23. The magnetic field in this region now has a Delta component which means a group of bipolar sunspots and others with opposite polarity in a single penumbra. Delta spots rarely last more than one rotation of the sun. They decay faster than other sunspots. However, new Delta spots can form within the same area.
​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 344 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3.27 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1.5 0014 UTC feb 22
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.0 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 45 (SN 50;Feb 21)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com