Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 24_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. AR3561 has produced 10 M-class solar flares, however the largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 0331 UTC from AR3559 (see previous report)​

M-class flares from AR3561

● M2.44 at 08:11 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M2.39 at 08:22 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean

● M1.02 at 13:08 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean
● M1.01 at 14:38 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean
● M1.3 at 14:59 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean

● M4.3 at 16:40 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America

● M1.0 at 18:28 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southwest Pacific Ocean
● M1.1 at 18;44 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southwest Pacific Ocean
● M1.0 at 19:52 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southwest Pacific Ocean
● M1.0 at 20:01 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southwest Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749858085357687138

HYPERACTIVE SUNSPOT: The sun is crackling with solar flares, and almost all of them are coming from hyperactive sunspot AR3561. There have been more than a dozen M-class eruptions in the past day and a half:​

​

The profusion of flares since the late hours of Jan. 22nd directly tracks the rapid growth of AR3561, which didn't exist when the week began. It is now a sprawling sunspot group 100,000 km wide with more than 20 dark cores. It has a mixed-polarity magnetic field that makes it naturally prone to frequent eruptions.​

NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of more M-class flares on Jan. 24th. Make that 100%. We've already observed two. How many will there be when the day is over? Stay tuned. SpaceWeather.com​

MASSIVE SOLAR BLAST: If you look carefully (use full screen) at the SDO 304A image (orange) you see a filament erupt in the SW. It propagates through the LASCO inner field (red) and then through the outer field (blue). I estimate that the CME would contain over 100 million Earths

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749992035149365403

​

There are currently 08 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3549, AR3553 AR3555, AR3556, AR3559, AR3560, AR3561 & AR3562

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 123 (54 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 75% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3559 & AR361 have a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) to active levels (Kp4) for the past 24 hours. On January 23 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s (Elevated speed) at 22:37 UTC. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21:05 UTC (Strong impact to Earth's magnetic field)
​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms for the next 3 days. This is in response to multiple CMEs expelled by the sun, some of them approximately aimed at Earth. Glancing blows could disturb our planet's magnetic field on Jan. 24th, 25th and 26th. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.75 nT South


● Current Conditions at 05:25 UTC on January 24

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4) threshold reached at 02:44 UTC
▪Solar wind speed record: 455 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5.02 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.97 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M2 0141 UT Jan24 from AR3561 the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South east Asia

▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.66x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.8 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 123 (SN 139 January 23)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[washable_orbit]

I watched the video again just to realize I was confusing two things together. My sincere apologies.

 

[Puma]

Thank you so much for that information!

​

My post was in reference to Tucker Carlson’s episode featuring Dennis Quaid, who says there is a 100% probability of a G5 solar storm in April that will cause the power grids to fail. It’s a wild claim, so I wanted to see if there was any additional information to back it up.

https://x.com/tuckercarlson/status/1746215532833947700?s=46

edit: he says it at around minute 0:50

I cannot locate where Quaid says there will be a G5 storm in April, however, he is not talking about something not previously known or something new. Someday fate will catch up with us.

I have read comments on the video. Many people believe that because he is an elite Hollywood actor Quaid "knows" what is coming and is warning us. I think it's more hysteria from normies who are discovering that a solar storm can break down their cell phones and wipe out the internet and oh god!! that would be terrible, no more likes, no more selfies on Instagram or Facebook, no more stupid viral videos etc.

And if we criticize Bill Gates for not being a doctor and promoting vaccines, we could say the same about Quaid who is an actor and not a scientist and is promoting the documentary "Grid Down, Power Up" that's all.

Here I found a synthesis of what he said:​

● “Basically, there is a 100% probability that our sun, generating what they call a GMD, which is a solar storm, that hits hard, hits our Earth, and the magnetic field we have around the Earth, and can fry everything that is electric above the ground, including our entire grid,” actor Dennis Quaid explained to Tucker Carlson
● …a Carrington event such as occurred in 1859… At the time, Quaid notes, the GMD (geomagnetic disturbance) devastated the then-existing telegraph system, and asks Carlson to consider the potential magnitude of such a disaster in today’s electrically-dependent society. He notes: “imagine what that would do now with a very large storm… it would take out not only the electricity but all of our infrastructure,” the actor exclaims
● “There wouldn’t be water in your tap. You couldn’t get gas for your car because the whole system is broken down.”
● “It’s something we don’t like to think about but it’s… whether from the Sun or a bad actor this is something that 100% chance it’s going to happen and we are just no nowhere no way prepared for it.”
● “President Trump actually signed an executive order to harden our grid to protect ourselves against an event like this happening. Obama tried to get that going as well and it’s stuck in these Regulatory Agencies.”
● “Everything that we rely upon would be gone. The food would melt in our refrigerators…” Quaid states, warning that “within a year, 90% of the world’s population would be dead from starvation, disease, or killing themselves in total and utter social catastrophe.”

Dennis Quaid discusses power grid vulnerabilities on Tucker Carlson show: There is a 100% probability that our sun would generate a solar storm that could fry everything electric | The Jim Bakker Show

Important Takeaways: “90% Of The Population Will Be Dead Within A Year” – Dennis Quaid Warns Tucker Of Inevitable Major Solar Storm Destroying All Tech “Basically, there is a 100% probability that our sun, generating what they call a GMD, which is a solar storm, that hits hard, hits our Earth...

jimbakkershow.morningsidechurchinc.com

Possibly this is what we need to level the field.

Q: (L) They never counted on their satellites getting fried.

(Pierre) And other electronic equipment through which they monitor, control, and influence populations. It's a failing of the electronic control system.

A: Level playing field eventually. Just wait for the current to begin to flow!

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749914403246600420

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (UPDATED): NOAA forecasters have downgraded today's geomagnetic storm watch from category G2 (Moderate) to category G1 (Minor). This is in response to the late arrival of the Jan. 20th halo CME. At the same time, the new G1 geomagnetic storm watch has been extended through the next 3 days. The sun has expelled multiple overlapping CMEs in the past 24 hours, including this beauty. One or more of them may graze Earth's magnetic field before the weekend. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

A STRONG DOUBLE SOLAR FLARE: What are the odds? This morning (Jan. 23rd @ 0331 UTC), two sunspots separated by 500,000 km erupted simultaneously. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the double ultraviolet flash:



In this movie, sunspots AR3559 and AR3561 can be seen flaring in tandem from opposite hemispheres, north vs. south. The combined intensity of the two explosions reached category M5.1.

This is called a "sympathetic solar flare." Sympathetic flares are pairs of flares that occur almost simultaneously in different active regions, not by chance, but because of some physical connection. A statistical analysis of such flares in 2002 proved that they are real and linked by magnetic loops in the sun's corona. An even bigger 40-year study of sympathetic flares found that the pairs can be separated by more than 90° in latitude.

Today's sympathetic flare caused a shortwave radio blackout over Australia and Indonesia: map. Ham radio operators and mariners may have noticed a loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as 30 minutes after the flare's peak. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750024681476764078

Record Flooding Sparks Emergency In San Diego - Space Weather Uptick - Willie Soon Cancelled

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749978172093759689

Stunning images! No, it is not “the day after tomorrow.”…These are incredible images captured by drones of a frozen lighthouse in front of frozen Lake Michigan, under the effects of the extreme cold that has been experienced in recent days. Via @weatherchannel

Cold Weather Has Increased Range Anxiety For EV Drivers | OilPrice.com

The ongoing frigid weather in much of the country has exposed yet another Achilles heel of the EV revolution: cold weather is the kryptonite of electric vehicles.

oilprice.com

Another 'risk of heavy snow' is on the radar for Colorado | OutThere Colorado

Mapping from the National Weather Service shows that another chance of heavy snow is expected to close out the month of January.

denvergazette.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 25_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 01:40 UTC from Region 3561 (S17W57). See report January 24th​

▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M2 0141 UT Jan24 from AR3561 the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South east Asia

Subsequently AR3561 produced a series of C-class flares and two M-class flares.


● M1.4 at 05:44 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southeast Indian Ocean

● M1.3 at 20:58 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean


There are currently 6 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3555, AR3556, AR3559, AR3560 AR3561 & AR3562

AR3549, AR3553 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 108 (48 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3559 & AR361 continue with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares
​

Potential active regions approaching the east limb, including whatever remains of old regions 3536 and 3539. We will get a better look this weekend. SolarHam.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) to active levels (Kp4) for the past 24 hours. On January 24 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s (Elevated speed) at 08:50 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 00:28 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH EXTENDED: NOAA forecasters continue to believe that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible this week when one or more CMEs might graze Earth's magnetic field. The most likely date is Jan. 26th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras as the weekend approaches. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.49 nT South
​

● Current Conditions at 04:21 UTC on January 25

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 390 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.25 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 2.7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 2216 UT Jan24
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.66x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.8 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 108 (SN 123 January 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎A twin stream of solar wind flowing from these coronal holes should reach Earth on Jan 29-30

..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 25_2024

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH EXTENDED: NOAA forecasters continue to believe that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible this week when one or more CMEs might graze Earth's magnetic field. The most likely date is Jan. 26th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras as the weekend approaches. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

China Freezes, The Snow Builds In Japan; U.S. Has Set 80 New All-Time Low Temperature Records This Month; Crackling Sunspot; + Mann's Manipulation Of The Peer Review Process - Electroverse

Single-day snow totals have surpassed a meter (3.3 ft) in many areas of Japan.

electroverse.info

"Meishin Expressway stuck "snowfall exceeding forecasts was the biggest factor" to verify the response".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750449690922148258

Regarding the stranding that occurred on the Meishin Expressway on the 24th due to heavy snow, the Central Nippon Expressway said that the biggest factor was that the amount of snowfall near the Sekigahara Interchange in Gifu Prefecture was higher than previously predicted, and the road was closed. We plan to verify whether there were any issues with the response, including timing.

The traffic jam that occurred on the 24th near Sekigahara Interchange on the Meishin Expressway in Gifu Prefecture was completely resolved at 4 a.m. on the 25th, after about 19 hours. The table was stuck.

Starting from the 23rd, the Central Japan Expressway will spray antifreeze on roads in sections where heavy snow is expected, and operate snowplows once snow begins to fall, to prevent traffic problems such as stranding. That means they were responding.

In addition, we make decisions about road closures in advance based on data such as predicted snowfall amounts provided by contracted private weather companies. That means I didn't do it.

The standards were not reached even at around 9 a.m. on the 24th when the first stranding occurred on the outbound line.

However, by 9:30 a.m., about 30 minutes later, the amount of snowfall exceeded the standard for road closures, so the first road closure was made at this point.

The Central Japan Expressway has said that the biggest factor behind the stranding was that the amount of snowfall near the Sekigahara interchange was higher than previously predicted, and will examine whether there were any problems with the timing of road closures or other issues. .

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750509131964784904

The Sun Now 1-25-2024 14:18 Twenty-Four Hour Time Loop

SDO | Solar Dynamics Observatory

SDO is designed to help us understand the Sun's influence on Earth and Near-Earth space by studying the solar atmosphere on small scales of space and time and in many wavelengths simultaneously.

sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov

4.2 Earthquake Southern California WED night 1/24/2024
Jan 25, 2024, The EarthMaster

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750520928302215250

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 26_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 15:22 UTC from Region 3561 (S17W71).​

There are currently 6 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3555, AR3556, AR3559, AR3560 AR3561 & AR3562

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 101 (41 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3559 & AR361 continue with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) levels for the past 24 hours. On January 25 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s (Elevated speed) at 06:14 UTC. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14:35 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CANCELED:
Although the official NOAA forecast still calls for a G1-class geomagnetic storm today, the odds of such a storm are rapidly declining. A veritable blizzard of CMEs expelled by the sun earlier this week appears to have been 100% off target. There's still a slight chance of a tardy CME strking Earth on Jan. 26th; if so, NOAA forecasters will be proved correct. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.44 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:23 UTC on January 26

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 390 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3.68 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.45 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C8 0033 UT Jan26
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.31x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.5 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 101 (SN 108 January 25)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎A twin stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal holes should reach Earth on Jan 29-30

.........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[dennis]

The Carrington Event was on September 1, 1859. There was an event in 1770, not 1777 though.
The article on the 1770 event has interesting drawings and detail from Japan where it was documented.

Dim red aurora at low magnetic latitudes is a visual and recognized manifestation of magnetic storms. The great low-latitude auroral displays seen throughout East Asia on 1770 September 16–18 are considered to manifest one of the greatest storms. Recently found, 111 historical documents in East Asia attest that these low-latitude auroral displays appeared in succession for almost nine nights during 1770 September 10–19 in low magnetic latitude areas (<30°). This suggests that the duration of the great magnetic storm is much longer than usual. Sunspot drawings from 1770 reveal that the sunspot areas were twice as large as those observed in another great storm of 1859, which substantiates these unusual storm activities in 1770. These spots likely ejected several huge, sequential magnetic structures in short duration into interplanetary space, resulting in spectacular worldwide aurorae in mid-September of 1770. These findings provide new insight into the history, duration, and effects of extreme magnetic storms that may be valuable for those who need to mitigate against extreme events.

Radware Bot Manager Captcha

The father of our country, George Washington, was a man of prayer. We have all read of how he went to the thicket many times to pray during the winter his army was at Valley Forge. However, little publicity has been given to the vision and prophecy he received at that time.

The first-hand account of this vision was given in 1859 by an old soldier named Anthony Sherman. He gave it to a writer, Wesley Bradshaw, who published it. In the vision, God revealed to George Washington that three great perils would come upon the Republic. He was given to know that America was going through the first peril at that time. The old soldier who told the story of the vision said that the nation would soon see the account verified by the second peril descending upon the land.

The account was taken from the reprint in the U.S. war veterans’ paper The National Tribune, in December 1880. The National Tribune is now called The Stars and Stripes.

This article was reprinted in the Stars and Stripes December 21, 1950. (winter solstice, just after Chinese counter attack in Korean War)
...
(during the third peril)-

Heaven Intervenes

“Instantly a light as of a thousand suns shone down from above me and pierced and broke into fragments the dark cloud which enveloped America.
...
In the report of this phenomenal and most important heavenly message for us at this hour, Wesley Bradshaw wrote: The last time I ever saw Anthony Sherman was on the fourth of July 1859, in Independence Square. He was then ninety-nine years old and becoming very feeble. But though so old, his dimming eyes rekindled as he gazed upon Independence Hall, which he came to visit once more.

George Washington's Vision and Prophecy About America

The father of our country, George Washington, was a man of prayer. We have all read of how he went to the thicket many times to pray during the winter his army was at Valley Forge. However, little publicity has been given to the vision and prophecy he received at that time.

sign.org

This article (and others) says the vision was made up, likely as civil war propaganda. Binghamton, NY was later home to IBM computers as well as a patent medicine called "Dr. Kilmer's Swamp Root."

Historic George Washington 'vision' found in Binghamton? The tall tale of the West Side​

Gerald Smith
Special to the Binghamton Press & Sun-Bulletin






Perhaps, because it was not a genuine find. The article had been reproduced several times, including in an issue of what later became the Stars and Stripes newspaper produced by the Defense Department. It was, indeed, called Washington’s Vision, and was written by Charles Wesley Alexander, a Philadelphia journalist who wrote under the pen name of Wesley Bradshaw. The story first appeared in April 1861 and made its way to a periodical aimed at the Union soldiers. Alexander wrote many such dream visions for other leading figures at the time – offering hope and inspiration. Visions from Lincoln, Ulysses Grand, and George McClellan. All manufactured, but done for a good cause.

...

There was a real Anthony Sherman during the American Revolution, but in 1777, he was serving at Saratoga under Benedict Arnold. Yet, despite evidence to the contrary, the story of Washington’s Vision made its way into the American mind – and, in this instance, into the hands of a well-known and respected architect and curator, Elfred Hull Bartoo.

Historic George Washington 'vision' found in Binghamton? The tall tale of the West Side

A well-known architect, Elfred Hull Bartoo, said he was in possession of Washington's Vision, which was later determined to be a work of fiction.

www.pressconnects.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 27_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 03:33 UTC from Region 3561 (S17W85).​

There are currently 5 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3555, AR3559, AR3560, AR3561 & AR3562

AR3556 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 97 (36 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3559 & AR361 continue with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. Both regions will leave the solar disk this weekend.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On January 26 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s (Elevated speed) at 20:21"UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13:09 UTC
​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CANCELED:
Although the official NOAA forecast still calls for a G1-class geomagnetic storm today, the odds of such a storm are rapidly declining. A veritable blizzard of CMEs expelled by the sun earlier this week appears to have been 100% off target. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.08 nT Norte

● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on January 27

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 415 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 6 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0149 UT Jan27
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.6 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 101 (SN 108 January 25)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎A twin stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal holes should reach Earth on Jan 29-30

RETURN OF AN OLD FRIEND: Over the last 6 months, a coronal hole has returned like clockwork. It changes shape each rotation but is clearly not affected by the differential rotation of the Sun. Odd! This implies that these are not surface phenomena but rooted much deeper inside

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750856682073190816

THE STRATOSPHERE IS GETTING COLD AGAIN: Yesterday in Europe, sky watchers in several countries saw colorful forms in the sky strongly resembling Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). For example, these iridescent bands appeared over Slovenia:​

"I saw them at sunset over the Planina disappearing lake, and thought they might be PSCs," says photographer Giorgio Rizzarelli. "The colors were unusual." Similar displays were seen in Switzerland and Italy.

Normally the stratosphere has no clouds at all. But on rare occasions when the temperature drops to a staggeringly low -85 C, widely-spaced water molecules in the stratosphere coelesce to form icy clouds. Because of their vivid iridescent colors, PSCs are considered to be the most beautiful clouds on Earth.

Is the stratosphere actually cold enough to make these clouds? Maybe. NASA's MERRA2 climate model suggests that the north polar stratosphere has indeed been cooling this week. However, according to the model, it's still a few degrees to warm for the icy clouds to form.

Sky watchers may be seeing something else. There is another type of PSC made of nitric and sulphuric acids: Type I PSCs form at a slightly warmer temperature (-78 C) and, while colorful, are not as beautiful as the colder Type II PSCs. Or--here's a completely different alternative--this might be an episode of unusually intense iridescence in the troposphere.​

.........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

From Spaceweather.com :

"
RARE AURORA CURLS: Regular readers may recall how we have occasionally reported on magnetic sine waves rippling through Earth's magnetic field, causing the magnetosphere to ring like a bell. On Jan. 16th, Jeff Dai looked up and actually saw one of these waves over the Kerid Crater in Iceland:

​

"I captured this rare image of 'aurora curls," says Dai. "They rippled across the zenith for several minutes."

Dai, who is vacationing in Iceland from China, asked Xing-Yu Li of Peking University's Institute of Space Physics and Applied Technology for help in understanding the aurora curls. "Imagine that Earth's magnetic field is like a guitar string," says Li. "In Jeff Dai's picture we are seeing vibrations in that string." Their wavelength, Li estimates, is several kilometers.

Normally this kind of magnetic pulsation is seen only as a squiggle on a chart recorder. In this case, however, energetic particles from space flowed down the rippling geomagnetic field, causing it to glow with auroral light and write the wave across the sky. It was a very rare sighting, indeed."

 

[Ca.]

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR QUIET: Hyperactive sunspot AR3561, which peppered Earth with dozens of solar flares last week, is now exhausted. The active region has almost-completely stopped flaring and, as a result, this weekend is expected to be quiet. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

Incoming Solar Storms & Big Flare Players | Informal Live Briefing 25 January 2024

Kīlauea Eruption imminent? Large Earthquake uptick. 3.5 EQ Louisiana SAT 1/27/2024

BOOM!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751259377015685630

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751315649572520129

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751323879065129172

An Aneto 3404m comparable to early June @jonatas_n_co

Then, during hard winters, they use this commodity to feed their herds.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 28_2024

ALL QUIET. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 10:39 UTC from Region 3561 (S14W0*).​

The most significant event today was the large double CME off the NE limb, followed by one off the SW limb. Otherwise, it has been pretty quiet as reflected in the lower flare rate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751423974456590834

There are currently 3 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3559, AR3560 & new region AR3563


AR3555, AR3561 & AR3562 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 52 (22 of these are grouped into 3 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 96% chance for C flares, 25% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3559 continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. This region will be leaving the solar disk next few hours.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On January 27 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s (Elevated speed) at 21:08 UTC. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10:24 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.24 nT North
​

● Current Conditions at 04:36 UTC on January 28

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 370 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 7.4 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9.39 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 2312 UT Jan27
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.8 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 52 (SN 101 January 27)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎A twin stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal holes should reach Earth on Jan 29-30
........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 29_2024

ALL QUIET. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.4 event observed at 23:34 UTC from Region​

There are currently 5 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3559, AR3560, AR3563 & new regions AR3564, AR3565

Total number of sunspots has increased to 75 (25 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 25% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3559 continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. This region will be leaving the solar disk next few hours.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) levels for the past 24 hours. On January 28 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s (Elevated speed) at 18:53 UTC. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09:37 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.6 nT North
● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on January 29

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 460 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 7.24 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 0140 UT Jan29 from AR3559 the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Australia

BIG FLARE FROM NW LIMB: Sunspot region AR3559 produced an M1.3 flare just a few minutes ago. It produced a coronal mass ejection which makes it likely that the Earth would be a target. We will have to wait for the solar wind models to be run to see if or when it might arrive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751797243714142503

▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 75 (SN 52 January 28)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎A twin stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal holes should reach Earth on Jan 29-30
........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 0140 UT Jan29 from AR3559 the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Australia

Followed by a much stronger flare, wich according to the report could bring some unrest :

SOLAR FLARE AND RADIATION STORM: Departing sunspot AR3559 erupted Monday morning, Jan 29th (0438 UT), producing a strong M6.8-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the exteme ultraviolet flash:​

This flare is going to affect Earth in several ways. It has already caused a shortwave radio blackout over Australia: blackout map. Ham radio operators and mariners may have experienced loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.​

Next, it is almost certainly going to cause a radiation storm. Sunspot AR3559 is well-connected to Earth. This may seem counterintuitive, because the sunspot is not directly facing us. However, when sunspots are near the sun's western limb, they can link to our planet magnetically. Take a look at this diagram, and you'll understand why. It's called "the Parker Spiral." Protons energized by the flare are now following the Parker Spiral toward Earth. Within hours, an S1-class (or stronger) radiation storm may be underway.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 30_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6.8 event observed at 04:38 UTC from Region 3559 (N26W83). The flare caused a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Australia​

This video shows the build up to and the proton flare itself (see previous tweet) at a temperature of about 10 MK. Note the physical size of the event compared to Earth (inset). You can see there is plainly a CME associated with this eruption. Will it hit Earth?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751909084331229642

Wow, we see images in Lasco C2 the M6.8 class flare of the AR3559 genre a CME that will probably hit a glancing blow towards the west side earth by day 31 , but let's wait to see its evolution.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1752000281112383708

SOLAR PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: Energetic protons from the sun are striking the top of Earth's atmosphere today following a strong solar flare during the early hours of Jan. 29th. This is called a "radiation storm," and it is currently a category S2 event. Such a storm can cause elevated levels of radiation in airplanes flying over Earth's poles and unwanted glitches in the electronics of Earth-orbiting satellites.

● Minor S1 Solar Radiation Storm - Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions at 06:21 UTC

● Moderate S2 Solar Radiation Storm - Infrequent effects on HF radio through polar regions and satellite operations at 17:29 UTC

The source of the flare was departing sunspot AR3559. Not all flares cause radiation storms, but this one did because the sunspot is unusually well connected to Earth.​

That may seem counterintuitive, because the sunspot is not directly facing our planet. However, when sunspots are near the sun's western limb (as AR3559 is), they can link to Earth magnetically. Take a look at this diagram, and you'll understand why. It's called "the Parker Spiral." Protons accelerated by the flare are now following the Parker Spiral toward Earth and raining down on our atmosphere.​

NOAA's GOES-18 satellite is recording the protons as they pass by en route to Earth:​

​

The three colors represent different energy ranges. Blue and green are especially noteworthy; they trace the most energetic protons capable of penetrating the metal hulls of satellites and aircraft. A significant pulse of these "hard" protons was recorded in the hours immediately after the flare. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 5 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3559, AR3560, AR3563, AR3564 AR3565

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 48 (22 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares. Departing sunspot AR3559 is suddenly crackling with strong solar flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet (Kp1) to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On January 29 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s (Elevated speed) at 03:32 UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22:26 UTC.​

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.48 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on January 30

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 470 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 1.27 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.29 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0049 UT Jan30
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 48 (SN 75 January 29)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎A twin stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal holes should reach Earth on Jan 29-31
........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com