Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 16_2024

ALL QUIET. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 14:05 UTC from a unnumbered region.​

IMPOTENT SUNSPOTS: Solar activity remains low depite a relatively large number of sunspots. For the past five days, more than a dozen sunspot groups have failed to produce anything stronger than a minor C-class solar flare. All of today's sunspots have stable magnetic fields, so the situation is unlikely to change on Jan. 16th. SpaceWeather.com​

An eruption was observed beyond the west limb around 12:00 UTC (Jan 14). The source was possibly old AR 3536, now no longer in view. The event generated a fast moving CME that is directed away from our planet. GOES Solar X-Rays measured the flare as a long duration C9.6, however it was likely much stronger than that due to the event being behind the limb. SolarHam vía X​

There are currently 13 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3540, AR3541, AR3545, AR3546 AR3547, AR3548, AR3549, AR3550, AR3551, AR3552, AR3553 and new regions AR3554, AR3555

AR3544 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 150 (64 of these are grouped into 13 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On January 15 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s (Normal speed) at 13:06 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18:45 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.09 nT North

● Current Conditions at 05:15 UTC on January 16

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 337 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0330 UT Jan16
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.51x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.6 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 150 (SN 183 January 15)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 17_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 03:30 UTC from Region 3541 (S20W77)

There are currently 12 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3540, AR3541, AR3545, AR3548 AR3549, AR3552, AR3553, AR3554, AR3555 and new regions AR3556, AR3557, AR3558

AR3546, AR3547, AR3550 & AR3551 are gone
​

INEFFECTUAL SUNSPOTS: Solar activity remains low depite a relatively large number of sunspots. For the past five days, more than a dozen sunspot groups have failed to produce anything stronger than a minor C-class solar flare. SpaceWeather.com​

Total number of sunspots remains at 150 (31 of these are grouped into 12 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 25% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On January 16 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s (Normal speed) at 06:36 UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06:27 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.06 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on January 17

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 402 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 3. 95 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.15 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0326 UT Jan17
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.51x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.6 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 150 (SN 150 January 16)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 18_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07:24 UTC

Solar maximum is on its way, possibly in 2024, and in the past day the sun has shown multiple signs that it’s reaching its peak activity. These include a lot of active filaments, many active sunspot regions, and instances of coronal rain. And at this writing (11 UTC on January 17), the solar disk is peppered with sunspot regions and active filaments, and the limb (edge) is covered with prominences, many of which are firing out plasma that’s falling back to the surface. One sign of an active sun that we don’t have: we don’t have high levels of flaring. But that can change in an instant! By the way, we’re now in the SDO eclipse season. Every day until February 10, SDO’s view of the sun will be briefly blocked by the Earth. Check out this beautiful spectacle in the images below. EarthSky.org

There are currently 12 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3540, AR3541, AR3545, AR3548 AR3549, AR3552, AR3553, AR3554, AR3555, AR3556, AR3557, AR3558

Total number of sunspots has increased to 158 (62 of these are grouped into 12 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 25% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

Sunspot AR3555 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On January 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s (Normal speed) at 17:40 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20:55 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.04 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on January 18

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 301 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.31 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 8 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C5 0408 UT Jan18
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.52x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.2 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 158 (SN 150 January 17)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 19_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 0408 UTC from Region 3553 (N05E03)
​

LARGE FILAMENT ERUPTS OFF NE LIMB: The filament is the dark structure on the Sun's surface reaching nearly to the limb. It starts to rise slowly and then erupts away from the Sun, reaching a size of at least 100,000 km.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747983951182930052

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3545, AR3548 AR3549, AR3551
AR3552, AR3553, AR3554, AR3555, AR3556, AR3558

AR3540, AR3541 are gone​

Using helioseismology (the study of the vibrational modes of the Sun), we can image the far side of the Sun. It looks like in a week, some big sunspots will rotate onto the disk. Stay tuned to see if they are right. Keith Strong vía X​

Total number of sunspots has increased to 113 (37 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 30% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On January 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s (Elevated speed) at 09:07 UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03:35 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.61 nT South
​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747914757653590032

● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on January 19

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 461 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 8.44 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 8 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0153 UT Jan19
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.67x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.0% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 113 (SN 158 January 18)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 20_2023

SOLAR LULL. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 01:53 UTC

ANOTHER QUIET WEEKEND: The sun is entering its second consecutive week of quiet. The solar disk is peppered with sunspots, but none has an unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for strong flares. NOAA forecasters say there is no more than a 1% chance of X-flares this weekend. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3545, AR3549, AR3551, AR3553 AR3554, AR3555, AR3556, AR3559, AR3560 & AR3561

AR3548, AR3552 & AR3558 are gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 137 (37 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 20% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On January 19 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 02:48 UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03:38 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.5 nT North

● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on January 20

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748460121334702422

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 407 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 3.68 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.28 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0258 UT Jan20
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.80x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.9 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 137 (SN 113 January 19)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748901483796680771

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748902974712328699

https://twitter.com/drkstrong/status/1748897566861750371

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748888258082140480

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742949888176873773

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748845963148456042

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 21_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 14:34 UTC from Region 3559 (N27E35).​

EARTH-DIRECTED CME: Breaking almost 2 weeks of quiet, a magnetic filament erupted on the sun today, hurling a CME toward Earth. According to a NASA model, the CME will arrive on Jan. 22nd after 1800 UT. Its impact could cause G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms. SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748920238958116948

HUGE WAVE FROM A SMALL FLARE: The bright region in the top left of this image flares - just a low-level C flare. But watch carefully (you may need to use full screen) a dark wave moves west and south eventually covering the entire SW quadrant of the Sun. That is over 700,000 kms!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748903967327694969

Magnificent Magnetic Loop Eruption; On the Sun's NE limb, a huge loop structure erupted. Note how plasma is ejected upwards, slows and starts to fall back onto the Sun's surface. Where it impacts brightens as the kinetic energy of the falling mass is turned into thermal heating.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748897566861750371

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3545, AR3549, AR3551, AR3553 AR3555, AR3556, AR3559, AR3560, AR3561 & new region AR3562​

AR3554 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 144 (57 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On January 20 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s (Elevated speed) at 21:40 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21:40 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.39 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on January 21

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 400 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.86 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.44 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C6 0202 UT Jan21
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.90x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 144 (SN 137 January 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 22_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 19:35 UTC from Region 3559 (N27E22).
​

Aliens on the Sun? As interesting as that would be, this is unfortunately *not* ‘aliens siphoning off solar plasma’, as some (genuine) commenters on my TikTok suggested! It’s all magnetism​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749093069427707914

There are currently 09 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3545, AR3549, AR3553 AR3555, AR3556, AR3559, AR3560, AR3561 & AR3562

AR3551 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 150 (60 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.
​

BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: A big sunspot is turning toward Earth. AR3559 tripled in size over the weekend, growing 10 times wider than Earth with more than a dozen dark cores. If you have eclipse glasses, take a look; no magnification is required to see this behemoth. An unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field makes AR3559 a threat for strong M-class solar flares. SpaceWeather.com​

Above: A 48-hour animation of AR3559 showing its rapid growth over the weekend.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On January 21 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s (Elevated speed) at 02:46 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14:41 UTC
​

EARTH-DIRECTED CME: Breaking 2 weeks of quiet, a magnetic filament erupted on the sun yesterday (movie), hurling a CME almost directly toward Earth. Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the emerging halo:​

According to a NASA model, the CME will arrive on Jan. 22nd after 1800 UT. A just-released NOAA model agrees with this assessment. The CME's impact could cause G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms with auroras spilling outside the Arctic Circle into northern Europe and northern-tier US states.
SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: Bz: 0.65 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:47 UTC on January 22

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 388 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 4.41 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.21 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C6 0147 UT Jan22
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.84x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 150 (SN 144 January 21)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 22_2024

Big Back-to-Back Storms Head To Earth | Solar Storm Forecast 22 January 2024

Jan 22, 2024

Large Swarm of Earthquakes China Region. Watch for Auroras tonight! MON night 1/22/2024

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

ANOTHER MAGNETIC FILAMENT SNAPPED: Another magnetic filament erupted today, Jan. 22nd, opening a 'canyon of fire' in the sun's atmosphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the massive snap:
Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024


Newly-arriving images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a bright CME emerging from the blast site: movie. The bulk of this CME will sail to the south of our planet. However, a preliminary NASA forecast model suggests the CME's flank will strike Earth on Jan. 25th, possibly causing G1-class geomagnetic storms. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749575171604705632

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 23_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Seven M-class solar flares produced by the sun on January 22 and one M5 flare on January 23 so far.

● M1.4 at 06:22 UTC from AR3559 caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean



● M1 at 19:24 UTC from AR3559 caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean
● M1.2 at 19:32 from AR3559 caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean
● M2 at 19:47 UTC from AR3561 caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean



● M3.4 at 21:21 UTC from AR3561 caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean


● M1.5 at 21:43 UTC from AR3561 caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

● M2 at 22:22 UTC from AR3561 caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

SIX M FLARES IN A DAY: 2 sunspot regions AR3559 (top left) and AR3561 (bottom right) have been flaring all day. They have produced 6 M flares and 5 C flares ranging from an M1 to an M4. Best way to see them is to watch a region for the full 20-s movie then watch the other. Enjoy!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749609653099532709

There are currently 08 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3549, AR3553 AR3555, AR3556, AR3559, AR3560, AR3561 & AR3562

AR3545 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 139 (59 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3559 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

ANOTHER MAGNETIC FILAMENT SNAPPED: Another magnetic filament erupted today, Jan. 22nd, opening a 'canyon of fire' in the sun's atmosphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the massive snap:​

Newly-arriving images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a bright CME emerging from the blast site: movie. The bulk of this CME will sail to the south of our planet. However, a preliminary NASA forecast model suggests the CME's flank will strike Earth on Jan. 25th, possibly causing G1-class geomagnetic storms.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On January 21 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s (Elevated speed) at 02:46 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14:41 UTC

INCREASING CHANCE OF GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: There are now two CMEs heading for Earth. Both were launched by snapping magnetic filaments on the sun. Their consecutive arrivals on Jan. 23rd and Jan. 25th are expected to cause G2-class and G1-class geomagnetic storms, respectively. Stay tuned for updates.

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.22 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:33 UTC on January 23

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 451 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 10 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.24 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M5 0331 UTC on Jan23 from AR3559 the flare caused a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Southeast Asia


▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.84x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 139 (SN 150 January 22)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
..........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[washable_orbit]

I don’t know if this is the right thread but does anyone know where I can read about the alleged solar storm that’s predicted for April? Or is it an educated guess based on data?

 

[Puma]

@washable_orbit

Could you post the link where you read that there will be a solar storm in April?

Neither NASA can predict exactly what will happen tomorrow with solar flares or Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) let alone what will happen in three months. They can, estimate, theorize and project but not know exactly. I am not an expert, but I think that watching how sunspots evolve or the sudden ejection of a CME is the best tool we have and can give us a warning. For example, today January 23 there are only two regions that could generate a solar X flare but do not have enough energy to cause a solar storm. NOAA estimates that AR3559 has a 5% chance of generating an X-class flare while AR3561 has a 10% chance of generating an X-class flare.

Now, it is well known that NASA models are not accurate either. They may predict that there will be a geomagnetic storm, but at the end of the day nothing happens.

 

[Puma]

I don’t know if this is the right thread but does anyone know where I can read about the alleged solar storm that’s predicted for April? Or is it an educated guess based on data?

In short, it can happen at any time and not necessarily in April, don't worry.

How likely is another Carrington Event?​

Richard Horne, who leads Space Weather at the British Antarctic Survey and who was a co-author on this study, commented:

Our research shows that a super-storm can happen more often than we thought. Don’t be misled by the stats, it can happen any time, we simply don’t know when and right now we can’t predict when.

Using annual averages of the top few percent of the aa index the researchers found that a ‘severe’ super-storm occurred in 42 years out of 150 (28%), while a ‘great’ super-storm occurred in 6 years out of 150 (4%) or once in every 25 years.

| EarthSky

New research shows that "severe" space super-storms occurred in 42 of the last 150 years. "Great" super-storms happened in 6 out of the last 150 years. The new work sheds light on the famous Carrington event of 1859, the largest super-storm in recorded history.

earthsky.org

 

[washable_orbit]

Thank you so much for that information!

Could you post the link where you read that there will be a solar storm in April?

My post was in reference to Tucker Carlson’s episode featuring Dennis Quaid, who says there is a 100% probability of a G5 solar storm in April that will cause the power grids to fail. It’s a wild claim, so I wanted to see if there was any additional information to back it up.

https://x.com/tuckercarlson/status/1746215532833947700?s=46

edit: he says it at around minute 0:50

 

[washable_orbit]

I found Dennis Quaid’s documentary on the subject.