Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Gaby]

I love the non-hysterical, didactic updates. From XRAS.ru:

Fast protons from the Sun have reached Earth. The radiation load on spacecraft has increased dramatically.

Accelerated protons from the Sun arrived en masse in Earth's orbit, creating a “snowstorm” effect in images from space telescopes — one of the most reliable signs of a fast plasma ejection approaching Earth. Each “snowflake” in the image is the result of a fast proton hitting the telescope's detector during image exposure. Long lines are caused by particles hitting the detector at an acute angle and thus illuminating several pixels.

The density of protons with energies above 10 MeV in the vicinity of Earth has increased more than 1,000 times over the past day. The “red level,” above which high-energy particles have a dangerous effect on spacecraft electronics, has now been exceeded by about 50 times and continues to rise, which is only observed when the largest solar flares directly impact Earth. Last year, this parameter reached comparable and higher values only twice: on June 1, 2025, and November 12, 2025, and both times it preceded very strong impacts on Earth and magnetic storms above level G4, which began within a day after the arrival of the particles.

 

[Gaby]

A bit odd, with peak placed back in 2024.

The strongest proton event of the 25th solar cycle is taking place

The flux of solar protons with energies of 10 MeV (the main indicator of the density of energetic particles in near-Earth space) 2.5 hours since the previous message (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ), has grown by another 4 times and currently exceeds the level of 1,920 units. This is the highest value recorded in at least the last decade. The level of danger and warning (10 units) has now been exceeded by almost 200 times. The reason for such high proton energies is not fully understood. There is a possibility that the plasma ejection rate, which is expected to exceed a gigantic 1,100 km/s at the moment of impact on Earth (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ), is underestimated, and the ejection is even more rapid. In general, against the background of the general low activity of the Sun, the event is absolutely inexplicable, looking at the moment as the result of an exceptionally rare combination of circumstances.

NOAA announced (NWS/NCO Critical Weather Day Status /) Until 9 a.m. on January 20 (Moscow time), the CWD status is a critical weather day.

Reason: S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm observed and a G4 (Severe) or greater Geomagnetic Storm predicted (observed S3-level radiation storm and expected G4-level or higher geomagnetic storm). UPDATE: The status has been extended until 15:00 Moscow time on January 20, 2025.

When you thought you've seen it all...

Solar proton fluxes in the vicinity of Earth reached 20-year highs

The density of the proton flux with energies above 10 MeV, used as a standard world index, reached the level of 7000 pfu units (1 proton/(cm2/cp)), which is the highest value since 2003. The last time higher values were observed was on October 29, 2003, after an X17.2 solar flare occurred on the eve (https://xras.ru/image/xray_RAL5_20031029.png ) before the largest magnetic storm in the 21st century on October 29-30 (https://xras.ru/image/kp_RAL5_20031030.png ).

Here comes a new record!

An S4-level radiation storm has begun in the vicinity of the Earth for the first time in 2 solar cycles

The solar proton flux has exceeded 10,000 units! For the first time in the last two solar cycles, an S4-level radiation storm is occurring in the vicinity of the Earth!

The S5 level exists only theoretically, and has never been reached in the modern history of observations.

The record values in history at the moment are considered to be about 40 thousand units achieved in the last century.

To understand what the satellites are experiencing now, just look at the video.

UPDATE — 21:49 MOSCOW TIME — 14 thousand!!!
UPDATE — 21:58 MOSCOW TIME — 17.5 thousand!!!

It gets better! :

The proton level has increased to 30 thousand units!!! This is higher than in the X17.2 outbreak in 2003. It's completely inexplicable! We write it as it is. UPDATE — 22:25 MOSCOW TIME — 37 thousand !!!!!!!!A RECORD VALUE HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN THE 21ST CENTURY !!!!!

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

A bit odd, with peak placed back in 2024.





When you thought you've seen it all...



Here comes a new record!



It gets better! :

Westerners confirms this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2013333472333496354

Webcam in Finland:

 

[Gaby]

Hit has begun

It just hit the Earth. 15 minutes passed between the passage of the L1 Lagrange point and arrival at the planet (1.5 million kilometers). This means a speed of about 1,700 km/s. Speed measurements on the ACE satellite are out of order (https://xras.ru/image/swv_RAL5_20260120.png ). There will be no other information about the speed. The rest of the real—time data is here (https://xras.ru/solar_wind.html ).

I hope many you get to see the auroras.

A G4-level geomagnetic storm will start within 20-30 minutes. If you have clear skies, look for auroras. Due to the failure of part of the ACE satellite systems, the forecast of the aurora borealis on the website (https://xras.ru/aurora.html ) may not work correctly.

 

[Brewer]

Hit has begun
I hope many you get to see the auroras.

Cloudy every time where I live! Enjoy!

So no moon trip?

 

[Ellipse]

The NOAA is not so alarmist. We will see...

 

[Gaby]

So no moon trip?

No luck!

A G4.33 level magnetic storm has been confirmed

It has been officially confirmed that a G4.33 planetary magnetic storm is taking place on Earth. The main question remains whether the highest level of G5, which has been observed only once over the past 20 years, in May 2024, will be reached in the coming hours. The only indicator of the solar wind that is currently being measured correctly is magnetic field induction, which shows values close to historical records.

However, it went higher and they didn't have a graphic for it, so it still looks like 50, but it reads at practically 90.

Is it serious? 87.9 NT????
We have a schedule ceiling of 50 NT selected with a margin for 20 years ahead.

Historical record.

 

[Ellipse]

The impact is imminent. More or less one hour from now. Z is for Zero which mean UTC. The American continent is the most exposed as it currently face the Sun.

WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

 

[Ellipse]

The impact have started! Wow.

Source

 

[EmeraldR]

It's got someone in Moscow up at very late hours. Another update:



View attachment 115230

Safe flights to those who have to fly that day!

wonders if all those flying to the Davos shenanigans get zapped ??? !!

 

[EmeraldR]

BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) Forecast| Solar Storm and Aurora Five-Day Outlooks| Solar Flare and Dayside Radio Blackout Five-Day Outlook| Radiation Storm and Polar Aviation Five Day Outlook| Synopsis of forecast| Post BLUF Q&A and Deep Dive

 

[Puma]

The speed of the solar wind has reached a maximum of 900 km/sec and a maximum interplanetary magnetic field of 42 nT. These extreme conditions often coincide with severe geological or weather events (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, storms). The latest SSGEOS forecast, for example, indicated a high probability of an M7-8 event around January 20, taking into account only the planetary geometry: Sun, Mercury, Mars. The geomagnetic storm may add another ingredient. Let's wait and see.

​

 

[Gaby]

The speed of the solar wind has reached a maximum of 900 km/sec and a maximum interplanetary magnetic field of 42 nT. These extreme conditions often coincide with severe geological or weather events (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, storms).

A perspective/flow for these values:

Geomagnetic storm passed through the first peak

Briefly for the moment.

The first pulse phase of the geomagnetic storm is currently coming to an end. The speed of the solar wind has stabilized at 900 km/s (2.5 — 3 times higher than usual). The increased values of the magnetic field induction near the Earth remain very high, about 10 times. At the same time, both parameters decreased by about 2 times compared to the moment of impact, when they were at a simply inadequate level and went from "incredible" to extremely strong, but still real values.

There is a rapid change in the sign of the magnetic field, which, if this trend continues, may lead in a few hours to a second strong geomagnetic surge with the indices returning to at least G4 and a new attempt to storm G5. The night peak stopped at G4.7, which was facilitated by the "incorrect" orientation of the magnetic field, which is now changing to the "correct" one and, instead of suppressing the geomagnetic event, will begin to accelerate it.

The total duration of the geomagnetic event is expected to be at least a day, which is likely to be completely painted over in red. The first clearings may appear tomorrow, and complete stabilization of the geomagnetic situation is most likely possible no earlier than in 2-3 days.

At night, exceptionally strong (one of the most powerful in the 21st century) auroras passed over the territory of the country and the European part of the continent, the lower limit of which dropped to a latitude of about 40 degrees. A repeat of the event is possible next night, albeit with a slightly lower power.

 

[Ellipse]

A picture coming from the spaceweather forum.

It was over Germany.

 

[Gaby]

A perspective/flow for these values:

More context, even last year's events were peanuts. In fact, for the entire history of reliable measurements since 1976, the largest storm was on 1991 with 43000 units.

The radiation storm around Earth peaked last night and is now coming to an end. The maximum solar proton density values were reached yesterday at 22:15 Moscow time and amounted to 37,000 pfu (proton flux unit — 1 proton/(cm²·s·avg)). This is the highest level recorded in the 21st century. For comparison, the strongest storm of the current 25th solar cycle, previously recorded at the peak of the cycle in October 2024, was about 1,800 units. Throughout the current century, the strongest radiation storms to date were on November 6, 2001 (31,700 units) and October 29, 2003 (29,500 units). In the entire history of reliable measurements since 1976, the largest storm was on March 24, 1991, which amounted to about 43,000 units.

Currently, the proton density in the vicinity of Earth is around 200 pfu, which is still significantly, 20 times, higher than the warning threshold (10 pfu). The increased load on spacecraft therefore remains, although it has decreased significantly compared to the previous peak.