Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Kadam303]

https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_c2_combo.mp4

 

[Kadam303]

never seen such flashing and shape so far

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

Although it was impressive the last X8 flare WON'T be a Carrington event, Burns is a bit of an enthusiast clickbaiting for fame/ego.
Seems the sunspot has a caged magnetic field which impeded the plasma ejection during the flares. Here's a video for yesterday's X1 flare showing this phenomenon:

The overall X-ray flux has been above M level for nearly 24h now.

Someone noticed that the number of this sunspot, AR4366, is a rearrangement of that of the famous group of sunspots responsible for the magnetic storm of May 2024, AR3664. Should we note to look for incoming AR4663 ???

The last summary by Russian institute:

AT THE CURRENT MOMENT — on the flare and the overall situation on the Sun

A large center of activity with exceptionally large reserves of energy, which were accumulated deep in the Sun and are now being brought to the surface in the form of electrical currents and strong magnetic fields, has formed on the Sun. The areas of concentration of the latter are now forming numerous sunspots on the surface. The region, which is relatively compact in size, is "swallowing up" this energy and burning it off in all available ways, continuously producing major flares. Since, apparently, there are not enough strong and very strong flares, superflares have come into play.

There are no signs of a decrease in energy reserves in the active center. Strong flares will continue. There may be new major explosions.

The X8.1 event is, without any exaggeration, a superflare. Over the past quarter century, since January 1, 2001, there have been only 13 such or larger explosions on the Sun. That is, on average, one every two years. Such an event occurred tonight.

Not every flare of this magnitude affects the Earth. In particular, the two previous events of the current cycle, which occurred in 2024 — X8.7 and X9.0 — did not affect the Earth. The flare may be on the edge of the disk, the flare may occur without a plasma ejection, the ejection may go sideways — there are many reasons, and more often it's "no" than "yes". Every time, the details matter.

As for the details. For this event at the current moment, an impact on Earth has not been confirmed. There's a 90% chance that it won't happen. According to the available data, powerful plasma clouds, which form the main impact force, have not been formed, and those that were have been directed sideways. Final confirmation will be obtained today, but preliminarily the flare is "sterile" (without a geoeffective ejection).

Now a bit about the downsides. The first is that today by the end of the day, the active center will approach the Sun-Earth line and will be in the zone of the most effective impact until Saturday. There's no way to avoid it. Moreover, so far there have been no major plasma ejections from the center, but this doesn't mean that it's not there. It's just that it hasn't been able to break through yet. Against this backdrop, a flare with a very large ejection is possible. A small plus is that the plasma from the current superflare was ejected at an upward angle, past the planets. In general, active centers tend to operate according to a certain pattern, and the next ejections may go in the same direction. But this is not guaranteed.

In general, this is all that can be written for now. Science, like everything else, is currently in the role of an observer. As news arrives, we will inform you.

The size of the active center and the associated group of sunspots allow it to be confidently observed from Earth even in amateur telescopes. If anyone is filming them, they can send photos. This area has already made its mark on the history of solar physics, and getting a personal photo of it can be inspiring.

 

[Gaby]

"Space Bro" (and geophysicist), Stephan Burns is somewhat concerned that there might be another Carrington Event.

Although it was impressive the last X8 flare WON'T be a Carrington event, Burns is a bit of an enthusiast clickbaiting for fame/ego.
Seems the sunspot has a caged magnetic field which impeded the plasma ejection during the flares.

Second that, don't rely on Stephan Burns as your feed, or he will hystericize you. As I said here, he has a tendency to dramatize other's people material for the clicks and awe factor, making him a source to be wary of. Just keep in mind that he might have some pattern recognition run amok in him.

Post in thread 'Watch the skies and land and oceans'

Saturday at 12:37 PM

Although he tend to be a drama queen, he always correlate interesting points.

He has a tendency to dramatize other's people material for the clicks and awe factor, making him a source to be wary of. Just keep in mind that he might have some pattern recognition run amok in him.

• A strong positive BZ component (60 nT) was observed in a recent solar storm, stronger than the G5 "Mother's Day" storm of May 2024.
• The positive field caused longer-term geomagnetic effects rather than immediate massive plasma injection.
• This led to strong...

• Gaby

• 

He hasn't told anything insightful here, it doesn't explain anything at all. It's just a description, with the second point being practically BS. Just nomenclature that makes people go "oh" and tells nothing of the processes involved. He doesn't seem to have the ideas clear in his head. To be fair, that is what most of them do.

You'll find far more honesty in the Russian Laboratory of Solar Astronomy as opposed to this guy. The former isn't hystericized like people in the West. So they genuinely admit the anomalies more willingly as opposed to anybody in the West. They even seem more genuinely happy that the U.S. is going to the moon than the Americans themselves.

 

[Kadam303]

Although it was impressive the last X8 flare WON'T be a Carrington event, Burns is a bit of an enthusiast clickbaiting for fame/ego.
Seems the sunspot has a caged magnetic field which impeded the plasma ejection during the flares. Here's a video for yesterday's X1 flare showing this phenomenon:

The overall X-ray flux has been above M level for nearly 24h now.

View attachment 115722

Someone noticed that the number of this sunspot, AR4366, is a rearrangement of that of the famous group of sunspots responsible for the magnetic storm of May 2024, AR3664. Should we note to look for incoming AR4663 ???

The last summary by Russian institute:

event on going so lets wait and see. this is not yet earth directed but cumulative impact can shake earth up.
CS said that our magneto is much weaker .so good slap can jiggle

 

[Kadam303]

Second that, don't rely on Stephan Burns as your feed, or he will hystericize you. As I said here, he has a tendency to dramatize other's people material for the clicks and awe factor, making him a source to be wary of. Just keep in mind that he might have some pattern recognition run amok in him.

Post in thread 'Watch the skies and land and oceans'

Saturday at 12:37 PM

Although he tend to be a drama queen, he always correlate interesting points.

He has a tendency to dramatize other's people material for the clicks and awe factor, making him a source to be wary of. Just keep in mind that he might have some pattern recognition run amok in him.

• A strong positive BZ component (60 nT) was observed in a recent solar storm, stronger than the G5 "Mother's Day" storm of May 2024.
• The positive field caused longer-term geomagnetic effects rather than immediate massive plasma injection.
• This led to strong...

• Gaby

• 

few blown transformers would calm things on earth i think:) war mangers would need to pool back for a wille

 

[Ruth]

Second that, don't rely on Stephan Burns as your feed, or he will hystericize you. As I said here, he has a tendency to dramatize other's people material for the clicks and awe factor, making him a source to be wary of. Just keep in mind that he might have some pattern recognition run amok in him.

I don't think he's hystericized me. I find him entertaining, engaging and open minded and too much of a modern day 'hippie' for that.... If he's concerned, it doesn't necessarily mean that I am (at all), besides, there's nothing that can be done about it.

What's the worst thing that can happen in a Carrington Event? Power blackouts? Not a great time to have them in the Northern Hemiphere. Earthquakes? Maybe.

The only thing to do is enjoy the beautiful auroras and not have to travel to the 65th parallel + to see them..... (that I will bring popcorn for), and hope and pray that this is Mother Nature doing a "Great Reset" on our toxic Elites and all their flunkeys! I could toast that, but I'm not allowed to drink anymore.