The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

Here are two titles with abstracts, along with one book, that demonstrate our weather and climate fluctuate more easily than we traditionally have been told by the media and in our schools even over short periods of time.
The day the sun turned blue. A volcanic eruption in the early 1460s and its putative climatic impact – a globally perceived volcanic disaster in the Late Middle Ages?
Martin Bauch
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Article about the reception of a putative volcanic dust veil across Europe in September 1465 and the hypothesis it might be the infamous Kuwae eruption, long time dated to 1452, now recently to 1458. The contribution aims to reconstruct the possible impact of the eruption in the second half of the 1460s, but makes also clear that it might be wrong to assume all volcanic mega eruptions behaved like Tambora 1815. Finally the article puts forward the assumption (and gives examples) that volcanic events of the kind might be a good starting point for a medieval environmental history with global aspects. Bauch, Martin, The Day the Sun Turned Blue. A Volcanic Eruption in the Early 1460s and its Possible Climatic Impact – a Natural Disaster Perceived Globally in the Late Middle Ages?, in: Schenk, Gerrit J. (Hg.), Historical Disaster Experiences. A Comparative and Transcultural Survey between Asia and Europe, Heidelberg 2017, S. 107-138. See full volume here: Historical Disaster Experiences - Towards a Comparative and Transcultural History of Disasters Across Asia and Europe | Gerrit Jasper Schenk | Springer
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One comment one could ask is that while volcanic eruptions leading to cooling so far happen rarely, there is still, even at the present frequency rates, a chance that two blow at about the same time, thus compounding the effect on the climate.

The link to the book, following the last bolded title, leads to a summary:
Historical disaster research is still a young field. This book discusses the experiences of natural disasters in different cultures, from Europe across the Near East to Asia. It focuses on the pre-industrial era and on the question of similarities, differences and transcultural dynamics in the cultural handling of natural disasters. Which long-lasting cultural patterns of perception, interpretation and handling of disasters can be determined? Have specific types of disasters changed the affected societies? What have people learned from disasters and what not? What adaptation and coping strategies existed? Which natural, societal and economic parameters play a part? The book not only reveals the historical depth of present practices, but also reveals possible comparisons that show globalization processes, entanglements and exchanges of ideas and practices in pre-modern times.
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If anyone is interested in particular chapters of this book, I imagine one could try to find them on one of the research communities under the name of the authors.

The next article was what led me to collect and post the abstract of these papers.
The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe
Chantal Camenisch
Melanie Salvisberg
Martin Bauch
Richard Hoffmann
Heli Huhtamaa
Oldřich Kotyza
Raphael Neukom
Maximilian Schuh
Philip Slavin
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Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in northwestern and central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives indicate that the 1430s were the coldest decade in northwestern and central Europe in the 15th century. This decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers resulting in a strong seasonal cycle in temperature. Results from comprehensive climate models indicate consistently that these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system. External forcing like volcanic eruptions tends to reduce simulated temperature seasonality and cannot explain the reconstructions. The strong seasonal cycle in temperature reduced food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis and a famine in parts of Europe. Societies were not prepared to cope with failing markets and interrupted trade routes. In response to the crisis, authorities implemented numerous measures of supply policy and adaptation such as the installation of grain storage capacities to be prepared for future food production shortfalls.
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The above paper should mean that the yearly average could be "normal", but within this normal, there can be devastating fluctuations.

The impression I have from the above papers as a whole is that serious weather-induced upsets of the social and economic systems are inevitable from time to time and occur more frequently than people in government plan for. There is an increasing amount of research from different fields, that confirm our already existing concerns, and while society is being geared to green and greener, the obvious is being ignored.

I don't know, if we need a new thread for this kind of papers, or if we should just enjoy and post them here with comments, as they surface from time to time?
 
It is rather worrying that preparations for possible/probable ice age conditions are not being made. I predict that things are going to get very serious and very chaotic rather quickly. But then, about anybody with two firing neurons can see that, so no cigar!
 
Laura said:
It is rather worrying that preparations for possible/probable ice age conditions are not being made. I predict that things are going to get very serious and very chaotic rather quickly. But then, about anybody with two firing neurons can see that, so no cigar!
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And Bill Gates is going to make it happen! :-O

www.dailymail.co.uk

Bill Gates wants to spray tonnes of CHALK into the stratosphere

Harvard University experts will send a large balloon 12 miles above the Swedish town of Kiruna and have it drop 2kg of chalk dust into the stratosphere.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
 
Laura said:
It is rather worrying that preparations for possible/probable ice age conditions are not being made. I predict that things are going to get very serious and very chaotic rather quickly. But then, about anybody with two firing neurons can see that, so no cigar!
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I recall one session where the Cs said something like (and I am paraphrasing) "Ice ages come on much much much faster than scientists think". The current "scientific consensus" is that the transition into an ice age takes "thousands of years". I always interpreted the use of the word "much" by the Cs to mean a factor of 10. So "much much much" is 1,000 times faster... This means that the transition into an ice age takes "years" and not "thousands of years".
 
rs said:
I recall one session where the Cs said something like (and I am paraphrasing) "Ice ages come on much much much faster than scientists think". The current "scientific consensus" is that the transition into an ice age takes "thousands of years". I always interpreted the use of the word "much" by the Cs to mean a factor of 10. So "much much much" is 1,000 times faster... This means that the transition into an ice age takes "years" and not "thousands of years".
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rs said:

Session 22 February 1997​

A: Climate is being influenced by three factors, and soon a fourth.

Q: (L) All right, I'll take the bait; give me the three factors, and also the fourth!.

A: 1) Wave approach. 2) Chlorofluorocarbon increase in atmosphere, thus affecting ozone layer. 3) Change in the planet's axis rotation orientation. 4) Artificial tampering by 3rd and 4th density STS forces in a number of different ways. Be vigilant. Be observant. Be cautious in your planning and be aware. Do not let emotional anomalies cloud your knowledge base. This is not a "time" to let one's guard down. Be especially careful of travel to unfamiliar locators, as well as sleeping in unfamiliar surroundings!!! You are being watched. Or, at least, it is best to assume you are, and act, think, and prepare accordingly. Remember what you have been warned about concerning attack. As you learn more and know more, you become more interesting... and, when your ranks swell, you are more vulnerable unless you are more aware!!

Q: (L) All right, were those given in the order in which they are occurring? The fourth being the one that's coming later?

A: Maybe, but remember this: a change in the speed of the rotation may not be reported while it is imperceptible except by instrumentation. Equator is slightly "wider" than the polar zones. But, this discrepancy is decreasing slowly currently. One change to occur in 21st Century is sudden glacial rebound, over Eurasia first, then North America. Ice ages develop much, much, much faster than thought. [Discussion of new scientific theory recently presented that the earth is expanding.]

Session 26 July 2014​

(Turgonl) About the weather here in Canada... It's been fluctuating between hot and cold this summer, and in the winter time. And we were just wondering, is the way the ice age is going to occur, will the summers just start to get cooler and cooler with the precipitation as time goes on over the next few years?

A: No, glacial rebound will fall within months when the tipping point is reached.
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Laura said:
It is rather worrying that preparations for possible/probable ice age conditions are not being made. I predict that things are going to get very serious and very chaotic rather quickly. But then, about anybody with two firing neurons can see that, so no cigar!
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I have heard anecdotally the climate change research funding is decreasing or ceasing and is being redirected to 'other areas'. This is a vague statement but unfortunately I don't wish to provide specific details at this time.

As a thought experiment, if this were the case, it would make a lot of sense that it's not announced publicly. It would make even more sense to deny and distract - those in the know have a head start: "Yes we are fairly confident climate change is occurring and has probably always been occurring, but we need more data to be positive that man made contributions are accelerating the change. We are throwing (xyz) at it. We are investing in this, and that. We are looking to renewable energy as a future solution, blah blah blah" - is a pretty good message to portray. If things do get serious and very chaotic quickly, it's advantageous (perceived by them, or so they think) to keep the masses in the dark.

-> edited addition: The point is, I think preparations are probably being made at the highly privileged and private levels of society. I don't believe it is in their interest to advertise their preparations, but it is 100% in their interest to discredit the conspiracy-theorist-preppers who do.
 
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Spring snowfall in Magadan, Russia - March 31 (and from the look of it more than just a dusting).


www.sott.net

Spring snowfall suprises residents of Magadan in Russia's east

Magadan was engulfed in the snow over the past 24 hours, leaving the Russian Far East city streets covered by a huge blanket. Metrologists predicted poor weather conditions, but no one expected the springtime snowfall.
www.sott.net www.sott.net
 

Super-chilled thunderstorm unlike any other ever detected​


By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer
Updated Apr. 1, 2021 5:28 PM CEST

thunderstorm-satellite.jpg


The cluster of particularly cold brightness temperatures is slightly to the left of the image center. (Image/NOAA/VIIRS/S.Proud/UniOxford)

When people think of a thunderstorm, towering clouds on a warm and humid summer day may come to mind, but one thunderstorm tracked by forecasters over the Pacific Ocean several years ago set a record for the extremely cold conditions that it generated.

A new study published in American Geophysical Union examined a particularly strong thunderstorm that rumbled over the Pacific Ocean well northeast of Australia on Dec. 29, 2018, a storm that has now gone down in the record books.

The record-setting storm was spotted by the NOAA-20 satellite, one of the most advanced weather satellites in NOAA’s fleet that launched just one year prior to the storm’s development.

The lowest temperature detected in the clouds above the strongest part of the storm was so low that it was almost literally off the charts -- coming in at around minus 111.2 degrees Celsius, or a bitterly cold 168.1 degrees below zero Fahrenheit.

This “extremely cold temperature that is, to our knowledge, the coldest recorded by satellite,” the authors of the study said. Previously, the lowest temperatures recorded in the cloud tops of storms anywhere around the globe ranged between 162 and 157 degrees below zero F.

The astonishingly low temperature was measured from space with the use of infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 satellite, a system that can accurately tell what the temperature is inside the clouds within Earth's atmosphere.

The driving feature behind every thunderstorm is the updraft, the column of rising air that gradually gets colder as it climbs higher and higher in the atmosphere.

When the rising column of air reaches the tropopause, the top of the lowest section of the atmosphere, the clouds typically fan out and spread outward. This is called an anvil cloud due to its resemblance to the tool used by blacksmiths.

In a stronger storm, like the one that was observed on Dec. 29, 2018, part of the storm clouds can poke through the tropopause and break into the next layer of the atmosphere, the stratosphere. This feature is called an ‘overshooting top’ and is the part of the storm where the record-breaking temperature was detected.


overshooting-top-photo.jpg


This image of a typical cumulonimbus cloud "anvil" was taken by the Expedition 16 crew on the International Space Station. The signature cauliflower shape of an overshooting top can be seen on the right region of the anvil cloud top. (Image/NASA)

The incredibly low temperature was not only due to the storm, but the overall state of the atmosphere that day.

On Dec. 29, 2018, the atmosphere around the tropopause was abnormally cold before the thunderstorm started to brew.

“Storm activity on this day was typical for the time of year, implying that the cold cloud top temperatures were primarily driven by the exceptionally cold tropopause rather than the unique properties of a given convective storm,“ the authors of the study explained.

What makes this thunderstorm even more impressive is the fact that when the NOAA-20 satellite passed over the storm, it was not at its peak strength.

The weather satellite is in polar orbit around the Earth, a type of orbit that allows the satellite to gather data about any given point on the planet two times a day. This is different than the GOES-East weather satellite which is in geosynchronous orbit, a type of orbit that allows a satellite to consistently take observations of the same region of the globe around the clock.

Because of this, the NOAA-20 satellite did not record the temperature of the cloud tops when they were at their coldest.

This new record, while impressive, may not stand for long, the researchers said.

“We found that these really cold temperatures seem to be becoming more common – with the same number of extremely cold temperatures in the last three years as in the 13 years before that,” said Dr. Simon Proud of the U.K.’s National Centre for Earth Observation.

Scientists think that the next record will likely happen over the same area of the Pacific Ocean where this record-setting storm took shape near the tail end of 2018. That is due in part to increasing sea-surface temperatures creating a more favorable environment for storm development along with changing conditions higher in the atmosphere.
 
Frost warnings have been issued to fruit growers in France, and it seems that the meandering jet stream is partly to blame.

The graphic on the left shows that last winter's jet stream was more uniform and so temperatures for many should have been less erratic (although not necessarily less extreme), meanwhile to the right it shows that this year's jet stream is weaker and meandering and is resulting in a greater temperature fluctuation. The next two graphics show the warm temperatures that Europe has been experiencing and the sudden drop in temperature that is expected.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1366429050701557761
https://twitter.com/x/status/1379003297705693184
https://twitter.com/x/status/1378998827768758272
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Growers in France note that it's not unusual to expect frosts late into April but that due to a 'false spring' their crops are already 'in advance' - and we've seen that all over the world for years now that plants are blossoming earlier - and they're saying that hard frosts following such warm spells threaten to seriously damage their crops.

The warnings issued in France:

[Thread] [Update] Tonight, the meteorological models are still converging towards an event of major destruction of tree production (start from the north tomorrow evening) Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday will be 3 difficult days for French agriculture. #FrAgTw

"Do we have traces of precedents in archaeo-meteorology or even in the history of meteorology? Apparently, these false premature springs should multiply with strong risks of catastrophic variations as here. The vegetation did not need that ..."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1378806858501255168

https://twitter.com/x/status/1378819201117343747
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We had a feathering of snow in the south-east of England this morning. The temps have plumeted and it is supposed to be -3 tonight. Yesterday morning I was out walking in a balmy 14 C with strong sunshine. The day before (Saturday) there was a bitter chill to the air. The weather is all combobulated...love that word....:wow:
 
Here in SW France today temps forecast above freezing for the rest of the week with overnight dips down to near freezing, 1C. A hard freeze would be devastating to the fruit growers, who dominate this region, as the trees are just now flowering. Hopefully the dire forecasts for the region will not be as harsh as predicted. The locals have a rule of thumb; don't plant until April 21st. This has been learned from experience. I will resist the urge to get a head start with the tomatoes for a couple of weeks.

We might dodge the bullet this year but the trend will eventually catch up with us.
 
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