The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

[Altair]

According to NASA, the sunspot cycle we are now passing through – Sunspot Cycle 24 – is the smallest such cycle since Cycle 14, which ended back in 1906.That is incorrect, says reader J. H. Walker.“The problem with NASA’s sunspot count is that these are inflated by every blemish and spot fragment due to the optics they use,” says Walker.

If you use the Landscheidt sunspot-counting method, which counts only those spots that can be seen by 40MM optics, you realize that the current count is less than Solar Cycle 5. That solar cycle began in May 1798 and ended in December 1810.It also corresponded with the Dalton Minimum.

Thanks for sharing the article Altair. It's quite worrying to read that NASA scientists reporting on sunspot count fail to take into account the fact that astronomers in the past didn't possess today's equipment and could only observe larger sunspots. Are they really that absent-minded or is it done on purpose? I wonder...

They are either stupid or disingenious. Since those PhD NASA guys spend their lives using telescopes I think they are perfectly aware that their hi tech equipments detect sunspots that are way smaller than what was being detected during the 18th century.

In addition, this is not the first time such manipulation of data in order to support the dominant ideology happens. See for example the East Anglia scandal or the removal of weather stations in rural area which magnifies the effects urban heat island on the calculation of world average temperatures.

Pierre, do you think it's a good idea to add this information as a footnote in German and Russian versions of "Earth Changes" book?

 

[Pierre]

According to NASA, the sunspot cycle we are now passing through – Sunspot Cycle 24 – is the smallest such cycle since Cycle 14, which ended back in 1906.That is incorrect, says reader J. H. Walker.“The problem with NASA’s sunspot count is that these are inflated by every blemish and spot fragment due to the optics they use,” says Walker.

If you use the Landscheidt sunspot-counting method, which counts only those spots that can be seen by 40MM optics, you realize that the current count is less than Solar Cycle 5. That solar cycle began in May 1798 and ended in December 1810.It also corresponded with the Dalton Minimum.

Thanks for sharing the article Altair. It's quite worrying to read that NASA scientists reporting on sunspot count fail to take into account the fact that astronomers in the past didn't possess today's equipment and could only observe larger sunspots. Are they really that absent-minded or is it done on purpose? I wonder...

They are either stupid or disingenious. Since those PhD NASA guys spend their lives using telescopes I think they are perfectly aware that their hi tech equipments detect sunspots that are way smaller than what was being detected during the 18th century.

In addition, this is not the first time such manipulation of data in order to support the dominant ideology happens. See for example the East Anglia scandal or the removal of weather stations in rural area which magnifies the effects urban heat island on the calculation of world average temperatures.

Pierre, do you think it's a good idea to add this information as a footnote in German and Russian versions of "Earth Changes" book?

Yes. The quote about inflated sunspot counts due to better telescope is an excellent idea.

 

[Eboard10]

They are either stupid or disingenious. Since those PhD NASA guys spend their lives using telescopes I think they are perfectly aware that their hi tech equipments detect sunspots that are way smaller than what was being detected during the 18th century.

Agree on that. Could be also due to wishful thinking on their part, as they think they can get away with disregarding such basic considerations as advances in tech capabilities that they fail to take into account the possibility of someone figuring out the "tweaking" of the data, so to speak.

In addition, this is not the first time such manipulation of data in order to support the dominant ideology happens. See for example the East Anglia scandal or the removal of weather stations in rural area which magnifies the effects urban heat island on the calculation of world average temperatures.

Interesting, I guess you're referring to the scandal involving the data released from Chinese weather stations, of which half were stationed in urban areas:

_http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/01/leaked-emails-climate-jones-chinese

Leaked climate change emails scientist 'hid' data flaws

[...]

Climate change sceptics asked the UEA, via FOI requests, for location data for the 84 weather stations in eastern China, half of which were urban and half rural.

The history of where the weather stations were sited was crucial to Jones [the guy accused of fraud] and Wang's 1990 study, as it concluded the rising temperatures recorded in China were the result of global climate changes rather the warming effects of expanding cities.

The IPCC's 2007 report used the study to justify the claim that "any urban-related trend" in global temperatures was small. Jones was one of two "coordinating lead authors" for the relevant chapter.

 

[Pierre]

Interesting, I guess you're referring to the scandal involving the data released from Chinese weather stations, of which half were stationed in urban areas:

_http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/01/leaked-emails-climate-jones-chinese

Leaked climate change emails scientist 'hid' data flaws

[...]

Climate change sceptics asked the UEA, via FOI requests, for location data for the 84 weather stations in eastern China, half of which were urban and half rural.

The history of where the weather stations were sited was crucial to Jones [the guy accused of fraud] and Wang's 1990 study, as it concluded the rising temperatures recorded in China were the result of global climate changes rather the warming effects of expanding cities.

The IPCC's 2007 report used the study to justify the claim that "any urban-related trend" in global temperatures was small. Jones was one of two "coordinating lead authors" for the relevant chapter.

That's one good example. There's also numerous documented cases in the US.

 

[Palinurus]

Ran into a quite remarkable article today -- in an MSN context at least:

_http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/climate-scientists-fear-day-after-tomorrow-scenario (in-article hyper links omitted; bold mine)

Mist rises from Lake Michigan on Jan. 6, 2014 in Chicago, Ill. Photo by Scott Olson/Getty

Climate scientists fear ‘Day After Tomorrow’ scenario

09/10/15 09:23 AM—Updated 09/10/15 10:48 AM
By Tony Dokoupil

In the 2004 disaster-flick “Day After Tomorrow,” abrupt man-made climate change knocks the planet into a state of utter chaos. At the time, the movie’s vision of the apocalypse wasn’t seen as realistic. But that’s begun to change.

Two new studies deepen the fear that global warming could shut down the circulation of the oceans, much as the movie portrays, dropping vast stretches of Asia into drought and exposing the whole Northern Hemisphere to severe ice and snow.

Unlike gradual climate change, where the planet warms steadily, this change would be sudden and sharp enough to roil civilization—happening in as little as three years and resulting in as much as an 18-degree Fahrenheit drop in average temperatures.

Jud Partin is the lead author of the stronger, more ambitious of the two studies. He’s also a geophysicist at the University of Texas, and an unabashedly close viewer of a certain summer blockbuster starring Dennis Quaid as hero-scientist Jack Hall.

“In the movie they defy the laws of physics. They have hurricanes developing over land and tornados in Los Angeles and other impossible stuff,” Partin told MSNBC. “But they got the climate science pretty right.”

The science deals with the “Atlantic thermohaline circulation,” an oceanic conveyor belt that carries heat from the tropics to the north, where it warms Western Europe and Eastern North America. It’s a fragile pattern, dependent on precise levels of salinity; Partin and others believe it could stop as Greenland’s ice sheets melt, flooding the ocean with fresh water.

To glimpse our possible future, Partin and his colleagues gathered new geological data and re-examined the deep past. They looked at an earlier, all-natural melt-off that happened about 12,000 years. Known as the “Younger Dryas,” the period was defined by a deep chill across the northern latitudes.

Ice core studies cited by Partin show an 18-degree Fahrenheit drop in average temperatures across Greenland. New York and London would be slightly warmer, he believes, but still frigid with average temperature drops of at least a dozen degrees. That might seem small, but even minute changes in the average are a signal of extreme swings in actual conditions.

And the effects of this climate change would be felt in a matter of years or decades, rather than a century or longer. That’s because this part of the climate system seems to work more like a switch than a dial. Once a certain threshold is reached, there’s a big, fast swing in the conditions over large parts of the planet.

“It would definitely change everyday life in Europe and North America,” Partin told MSNBC. “Daily life would be drastically affected in these areas, in ways I can’t imagine or begin to address.”

Some climate change deniers might want to use Partin’s research – which focuses on cooling rather than warming – to claim that scientists can’t make up their minds about climate change or that it won’t be hot or dangerous. They’d be wrong to assume that.

The script of “The Day After Tomorrow” does a decent job driving a stake through the issue.

“Yes, it is a paradox, but global warming can trigger a cooling trend,” says Dennis Quaid, launching into some on-screen exposition as the scientist Jack Hall.

“The Northern Hemisphere owes its climate to the North Atlantic Current,” Dr. Hall explains. “Heat from the sun arrives at the equator and is carried north by the ocean. But global warming is melting the polar ice caps and disrupting this flow,” he continues. “Eventually it will shut down. And when that occurs, there goes our warm climate.”

Parts of the movie are gross exaggerations that Partin says we don’t have to worry about, like unrelated extreme weather events and speeding up the time frame for change. The cooling, for example, happens in a matter of days, instead of years or more likely decades. The freeze is also deeper, with North America covered in glaciers almost overnight.

But in other ways the movie arguably doesn’t go far enough. Shortly before the release of “The Day After Tomorrow,” the Pentagon commissioned a $100,000 study of abrupt cooling scenarios, triggered by a similar stagnation of the oceans.

The authors envisioned “a world of warring states” and “a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the earth,” a future so bleak it could haunt even Hollywood. Partin also finds that a break in the ocean’s circulatory system could drop much of Asia into a famine-inducing drought.

But are we heading for this doom? “That’s the billion dollar question. Just how probable is this? Well, it’s definitely not zero,” said Partin. “Right now we have pretty strong evidence that the Greenland ice is not only melting but accelerating.”

Greenland is coated in nearly 700,000 square miles of ice, and scientists already know that this ice cover is thinning and that the planet’s thermostat is being pushed up by man-made carbon emissions. In 2007 alone, according to a recent study, Greenland lost “the equivalent of two times all the ice in the Alps.”

In another new study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, three scientists from Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute looked at the effect of this melting. Not only did they find evidence of an effect, they concluded that existing models may have underestimated the sensitivity of the ocean’s system.

Even a relatively small change in the ocean’s salinity, the researchers write, “corresponds to a significant temperature decrease of up to 40%” across North America and Europe.

That doesn’t surprise Joshua Willis, an oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who was not involved in the latest studies. “In a lot of areas of climate change, we’re seeing that earlier estimates were conservative,” he told MSNBC.

He’s the lead investigator of a five-year, $30 million study that should help scientists determine Greenland’s melt-rate with unprecedented accuracy. The official NASA “mission” is known as Oceans Melting Greenland—yes, it’s called operation OMG.

But Willis isn’t ready to panic, let alone call Dennis Quaid. “It’s not going to be the ‘Day after Tomorrow,’” he said. “Impacts like that are way overstated.”

Still, both he and Partin share a hope that the world leaders will rein in greenhouse gas emissions, and soon.

“The longer we wait,” said Partin, “the longer it will take for us to get back to normal.”

 

[Palinurus]

Now also published on SOTT: http://www.sott.net/article/301475-Ice-Age-Cometh-Scientists-fear-Day-After-Tomorrow-climate-change

 

[Aeneas]

Now also published on SOTT: http://www.sott.net/article/301475-Ice-Age-Cometh-Scientists-fear-Day-After-Tomorrow-climate-change

Yes, it is an interesting article though they totally miss the fact that it is not man-made global warming, at least not the way they see it. That such events have happened in the past where only few humans roamed the planet does not feature into their calculations. And they don't want to look at the increasing volcanic activity and not least in the deep oceans that is part of the warming effect. They just ought to read Pierres book and start to ask intelligent questions instead of saying the right words to release funds from the AGW cash cow.

But aside from that global cooling can happen fast as they write and it will definately change our civilisation.

 

[luc]

Just saw this little documentary from RT and thought it was pretty interesting - it's basically about cold adaptation techniques that could be useful in terms of climate change:

RT documentary "Surviving the cold": _https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXwu30uDykc

 

[Palinurus]

Source: _http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/24/why-some-scientists-are-worried-about-a-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/

(9 hyper links and 1 video omitted)

Why some scientists are worried about a surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean

By Chris Mooney September 24

January–August 2015 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Percentiles. (NOAA)

It is, for our home planet, an extremely warm year.

Indeed, last week we learned from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that the first eight months of 2015 were the hottest such stretch yet recorded for the globe’s surface land and oceans, based on temperature records going back to 1880. It’s just the latest evidence that we are, indeed, on course for a record-breaking warm year in 2015.

Yet, if you look closely, there’s one part of the planet that is bucking the trend. In the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and Iceland, the ocean surface has seen very cold temperatures for the past eight months:

What’s up with that?

First of all, it’s no error. I checked with Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, who confirmed what the map above suggests — some parts of the North Atlantic Ocean saw record cold in the past eight months. As Arndt put it by email:

"For the grid boxes in darkest blue, they had their coldest Jan-Aug on record, and in order for a grid box to be “eligible” for that map, it needs at least 80 years of Jan-Aug values on the record."

Those grid boxes encompass the region from “20W to 40W and from 55N to 60N,” Arndt explained.

And there’s not much reason to doubt the measurements — the region is very well sampled. “It’s pretty densely populated by buoys, and at least parts of that region are really active shipping lanes, so there’s quite a lot of observations in the area,” Arndt said. “So I think it’s pretty robust analysis.”

Thus, the record seems to be a meaningful one — and there is a much larger surrounding area that, although not absolutely the coldest it has been on record, is also unusually cold.

At this point, it’s time to ask what the heck is going on here. And while there may not yet be any scientific consensus on the matter, at least some scientists suspect that the cooling seen in these maps is no fluke but, rather, part of a process that has been long feared by climate researchers — the slowing of Atlantic Ocean circulation.

In March, several top climate scientists, including Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Michael Mann of Penn State, published a paper in Nature Climate Change suggesting that the gigantic ocean current known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is weakening. It’s sometimes confused with the “Gulf Stream,” but, in fact, that’s just a southern branch of it.

The current is driven by differences in the temperature and salinity of ocean water (for a more thorough explanation, see here). In essence, cold salty water in the North Atlantic sinks because it is more dense, and warmer water from farther south moves northward to take its place, carrying tremendous heat energy along the way. But a large injection of cold, fresh water can, theoretically, mess it all up — preventing the sinking that would otherwise occur and, thus, weakening the circulation.

In the Nature Climate Change paper, the researchers suggested that this source of freshwater is the melting of Greenland, which is now losing more than a hundred billion tons of ice each year.

I asked Mann and Rahmstorf to comment on the blue spot on the map above by e-mail. Here’s what Mann had to say:

"I was formerly somewhat skeptical about the notion that the ocean “conveyor belt” circulation pattern could weaken abruptly in response to global warming. Yet this now appears to be underway, as we showed in a recent article, and as we now appear to be witnessing before our very eyes in the form of an anomalous blob of cold water in the sup-polar North Atlantic."

Rahmstorf also commented as follows:

"The fact that a record-hot planet Earth coincides with a record-cold northern Atlantic is quite stunning. There is strong evidence — not just from our study — that this is a consequence of the long-term decline of the Gulf Stream System, i.e. the Atlantic ocean’s overturning circulation AMOC, in response to global warming."

I also asked Rahmstorf whether, if his thinking is right, we should expect this cold patch to become a permanent feature of temperature maps, even as the world continues to warm. His answer was complex, but not anything that gives you much reassurance:

"The short term variations will at some point also go the other way again, so I don’t expect the subpolar Atlantic to remain at record cold permanently. But I do expect the AMOC to decline further in the coming decades. The accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet will continue to contribute to this decline by diluting the ocean waters."

Granted, it’s not clear that all climate scientists agree with this interpretation of what’s happening in the North Atlantic — but clearly some important ones do, and they have published their conclusions in an influential journal.

The longer the situation continues, the more it is likely to attract attention. But it has already been around for a while. “It’s been really persistent over the last year and a half or so,” NOAA’s Arndt says.

Indeed, I spoke with Rahmstorf previously about the cold patch in the North Atlantic in March, when his study came out — and when a NOAA temperature chart for December 2014 through February 2015 also showed record cold in this area. As Rahmstorf wrote back then, “The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled.” Since then, the trend appears to have only continued.

So in sum, if Mann and Rahmstorf are right, a slowing of Atlantic Ocean circulation could be beginning, and even leaving a temperature signature for all to see.

This won’t lead to anything remotely like The Day After Tomorrow (which was indeed based — quite loosely — on precisely this climate scenario). But if the trend continues, there could be many consequences, including rising seas for the U.S. East Coast and, possibly, a difference in temperature overall in the North Atlantic and Europe.

So on future climate maps, even as we rack up more hot months and years, we’d better watch the North Atlantic closely.

 

[Laura]

Source: _http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/24/why-some-scientists-are-worried-about-a-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/

This won’t lead to anything remotely like The Day After Tomorrow (which was indeed based — quite loosely — on precisely this climate scenario).

Famous last words...

 

[Palinurus]

Source: _http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/24/why-some-scientists-are-worried-about-a-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/

This won’t lead to anything remotely like The Day After Tomorrow (which was indeed based — quite loosely — on precisely this climate scenario).

Famous last words...

LOL ! ;)

 

[Laura]

It's particularly worrisome with us heading into winter. Just can't imagine if some of those DAT scenarios start manifesting in places like Ukraine. Porkoshenko will wish he had paid more attention to the weather and less to lining his pockets.

 

[Laura]

http://notrickszone.com/2015/09/08/2015-the-year-europes-winter-that-never-left-snow-and-frost-grip-continent-yet-again-this-summer/#sthash.QwM9oQBf.EUammjk6.dpbs

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2015/07/22/coldest_summer_since_1992/

http://notrickszone.com/2015/08/31/danish-meteorological-institute-data-show-greenland-ice-mass-balance-has-grown-impressively-since-2014/#sthash.tTeVaiqj.ob83Mt3f.dpbs

http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2554.epdf?referrer_access_token=UaPSVUnyJdUKe-MS3AmjidRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NAhBvJD3qQKAFJ5ZYnRB2DfVKqstvbeSrKxpKUhj2SxF7BcI_loegLGlYCV27ok_Njli4FpCNFd520NkNH-gNy_R7BHOTlk8WVlOM-EydqJ2tY_L01eSqt6OCNoB3_yLiE6BulJihSdvVn2Rhet_TVm2WX8WpylasslJuAwiSTuzqtzAqHfVz4MPeC71w118e7l4SrRunAK2v_yCanNisSvJW6En4T0tyOxXLBEtqW7C51FI8I9yoic5FL-DFaxYAHMsHQSEYB8KttPNnxoUmk&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/

 

[Palinurus]

Thanks for the links, Laura. It's gut wrenching to notice how many people in the comments on notrickszone seem to have been done in by the official propaganda about global warming. They are wrestling with cognitive dissonance when any other input comes to fore.

Two articles are now covering this on SOTT (mentioning this for archiving purposes):

http://www.sott.net/article/302824-Iceland-Coldest-summer-since-1992

http://www.sott.net/article/302825-Surprising-cold-blob-found-in-the-North-Atlantic-Ocean-astute-climate-scientists-worried

 

[JEEP]

Coverage here as well:

Russia Warns Global Chaos To Follow Worst Winter In History

A chilling new Ministry of Defense (MoD) report circulating in the Kremlin today warns that the potential for global chaos has grown “beyond all measure” due to the catastrophic effects being caused by the severe weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that not only has slammed Europe with the “winter that never left” this year, but is now threatening to unleash upon the world another Little Ice Age (LIA) event.

According to this report, from Scotland, where last winters snow falls never fully melted and has begun falling again, to Sweden, where villagers in Klimpfjäll cannot remember there ever having been so much snow left at this time, to Iceland, which has had its coldest summer since 1992, and the massive ice buildup in Greenland—to just name a few—all of these events, and more, point to the reality that the weakening AMOC is, indeed, about to unleash what could very well be the worst winter in modern history.

Unfortunately for the Western peoples, however, in regards to the catastrophic winter dangers to come, this report says, are their government global warming alarmists blaming an El Nino event for its occurring…while at the same time refusing to tell their people about the massive cold ‘blob’ growing in the North Atlantic due to the AMOC weakening that is, in fact, what is actually to blame for what is to come..

Agreeing with Russian scientists warning of this global winter danger, this report notes, are several top climate scientists—including Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Michael Mann of Penn State, who in March released their shocking report titled Exceptional Twentieth-Century Slowdown In Atlantic Ocean Overturn Circulation warning of what is to come.

Of the few Western reporters who have reported on the historic Atlantic Ocean current slowdown , this report continues, was the Washington Post’s Chris Mooney who noted that “for the grid boxes in darkest blue, they had their coldest Jan-Aug on record, and in order for a grid box to be “eligible” for that map, it needs at least 80 years of Jan-Aug values on the record”, while The Telegraph’s Dan Hyde even more grimly warned that “the earth is 15 years from a period of low solar activity similar to that last seen during the “mini ice-age” of the 17th century, when the Thames froze”.

With solar activity being the truest cause of the AMOC weakening, and the catastrophic winter to come, this report further notes, Russian scientists findings were, also, recently backed up by Dr. Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who, in his latest research paper, confirmed the Sun’s role in our planets climate by stating:

“When we compared our new composite to one of the high solar variability reconstructions of Total Solar Irradiance which was not considered by the CMIP5 hindcasts (i.e., the Hoyt & Schatten reconstruction), we found a remarkably close fit.

If the Hoyt & Schatten reconstruction and our new Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates are accurate, then it seems that most of the temperature trends since at least 1881 can be explained in terms of solar variability, with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations providing at most a minor contribution.

This contradicts the claim by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that most of the temperature trends since the 1950s are due to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (Bindoff et al., 2013).”

Of the greatest global danger, though, facing humanity due to the coming catastrophic winter caused by the weakening AMOC, MoD analysts in this report warn, is not only due to the West’s ignoring the danger and failing to protect their citizens, but also the historical ramifications associated with these mini ice age periods that have seen the complete overturning of societies and governments.

Best explaining these historical periods (cycles), this report says, is the man whom many believe is world’s best economist, Martin Armstrong, who aside from being held by the US government without charges for 7 years due to his refusal to hand over his algorithm able to accurately predict economic crashes, he has also warned about the dangers facing our world due to this now arriving mini ice age by stating:

“If we just take 2015.75 [1 October 2015] and move back in time in 309.6 year intervals, we come not only to the periods when the climate turned very cold, we also come to the periods of the political changes in government.

The 1700s market the start of the uprising against monarchy. The 1396 period market the beginning of capitalism with the Black Death killing about 50% of the European population.

The year 777 was the start of Saxon invasions and Charlemagne beginning to consolidate Europe once again forming nation states. The previous cycle was the fall of Rome. These changes in climate have coincided with political changes. The climate shift to very cold places tremendous stress upon the people and starvation begins to rise.”

As to if the Western peoples, especially Americans, will ever be allowed to know the truth of what is happening it does not appear likely as a new report today states that if any mainstream reporter told the truth to them, their entire reality would crumble.

_http://www.eutimes.net/2015/09/russia-warns-global-chaos-to-follow-worst-winter-in-history/

[Moderator: Disabled link]