Trump's 'Liberation Day': US govt imposes tariffs to 'reset' global trade, 'MAGA', 'defeat' China - Will it work?

You might find this informative.

Armstrong gives his take on the tariffs. He says 10% tariffs are reasonable and sees the media blowing this up into fear mongering as a media political attack on Trump, the usual thing. His computer program (Socrates) predicted the major dive in the market for April 7. Covers the bonds and treasury notes to some degree. He speaks mostly about EU's situation and economic vulnerability. The threat of war sends capital out of Europe into the US for safety which makes the Dow go higher. He covers a lot of history. Much is predicated with NATO defeating Russia!
China is working on removing itself economically from US. Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan. Mostly scare tactics on economy, war looms with NATO, Iran afraid of war with US. Socrates says the Dow will continue to be high.

 
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WhiteMountain said:
Labels are not so useful to me. Everyone is wrong on many things. People should be judged mostly based on what they are saying and the underlying logic, not their ideological camp. Sachs happens to be right with regard to the U.S.'s position towards Russia despite his leftist economic views. HE also happens to be right when he talks about how the tariffs were done recklessly and that Trump basically is lying his ass off when he said they were "reciprocal tariffs" as his own administration officials admitted it, and they had to as the facts did not support Trump's statements. If he goes on about his love of socialism, then i have issues with that.
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WhiteMountain said:
Just to put the notion of we can get rid of the income tax through tariffs to bed (as my mom keeps telling me), let me quote some math. Total income and payroll taxes in fiscal 2024 for the US were $4.065 trillion. Total US imports last year were 845 billion. So in order to directly offset the income tax the tariffs on EVERY DOLLAR OR FOREIGN TRADE would have to be 481%!!!! And obviously there would be a LOT LESS trade to tax if tariffs were that high. You CANNOT fund the US budget with tariffs while eliminating income taxes which represent 80% of total US tax revenue. And we are running almost a $3 trillion deficit on top of that according to those same reports.

So the whole narrative that they are putting out that tariffs will allow us to get rid of the income tax is just irresponsible by all the social media influencers who assume Trump is playing 4D chess all the time. The 7.8 trillion in total government spending needs to be completely slashed to get back to where we were before the curse of the income tax and money printing allowed government coffers to grow beyond their means.
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To not forget about elephant in the room and in other words to slash debt US should slash it s military spending which is the backbone of it s hegemony, which means less wars and leaving bases all over the world, including weapon and money donations to many countries like Israel, and which will mean lesser profits for military industrial complex, which will mean lesser jobs in that regard but think that would be better option then tariffs, debt would very quickly go down, but like every falling hegemonic power clinging with it s last breath to it because of all the priviliges and power it offers it will not end well. Only positive financial, economic and geopolitical way out is accepting reality and multipolar world and to be part of it for the benefit of all but of course it will not happen, crown will have to be put down harder way by reality and universe like always.
 
My last few posts are gone. Ah well (why now?) I will just give a short recap. I believe this information is on point (or very near to reality). Please consider it.

What I see going on right now is the end of the grand supercycle (2+ centuries long) of the financial markets. Look at the historical chart in the screenshot from the video.
The cycles are in control of the chart and the markets.
Elliott waves (5-3 wave pattern) is the main structure of the financial chart.

Supercycle 1 (elliott wave 1) ended with a breakout of the upper line of the channel and then the big crash of the price, that went below the lower line of the channel followed (elliot wave 2).
Supercycle 3 (elliott wave 3) ended with a breakout of the upper line of the channel and then the big crash of the price, that went below the lower line of the channel followed (elliott wave 4, 1929 crash).
We are now at the ending stage of the supercycle 5 (the last wave of the grand supercycle) and like I've written in posts above, there are multiple indicators that the chart is preparing to cross the upper line of the current channel, on top of the fact that the last 2 supercycles ended the same way.

Screenshot 2025-04-14 114704.png

Cs said the summer is approaching. I believe that's the summer they are talking about - 'summer'/golden period of the markets. I believe that the chart is going to do it's thing (like it always does) according to the cycles (which are in control of the chart) and will cross the upper line of the channel just like it did at the end of the last two supercycles.

Also, based on the information I know, I believe that the narrative going on in the world right now is just the preparation of the ground (a sort of 'spring' for the coming 'summer'/end of the cycle markets boom/bloom, before the fall that will follow. I believe even Trump was told what is going to happen in the markets, hence him saying "this is a good time to buy".
Trump is just a chosen figure/player on the scene of this show (that is used to explain the natural movement of the market cycle, the very end phase of the grand supercycle). People will say "Trump brought the "golden era", but in reality it's not him, it's just the chart cycle doing its thing.

Also this being the grand supercycle coming to an end, the crash that follows the 'summer' period (blow of top/end of the cycle) will be something never seen before. And thus those running the show behind the scenes are using this exact time/cycle period for the transformation of the financial system. They are simply using the end of the grand supercycle itself as a medium/vessel for the transformation into the new system (with a new cycle). Likely the tranformation itself will be connected/timed to the fall/crash/end of the grand supercycle itself, and it will be a narrative to explain the fall itself. Likely even seen as (explanation of) what caused the drop of the stock market itself - the transfer into a new kind of system. But in reality, it is likely planned to be timed exactly at the fall itself. Remember "cycles are in control", the narrative is pasted on top of the cycles.

Is Trump about to be a progenitor of a golden era ('summer' phase of the markets). And the 'actor' in the financial system transformation itself ('fall' of the traditional markets that will follow the 'summer' and be used as catalyst for the transformation/switch to a new system)?
All I know about the way that markets work, and the way the world works (mostly all being just a grand show) is pointing to that conclusion. Once in a multiple lifetimes big long and subsequent big short opportunity. And a new kind of system with a new kind of digital money (maybe XRP playing a integral role in it).

Anyway, that's just me sharing what I see. Maybe someone finds it usefull.
 
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And this. DJI could reach up to 140k level based on the fibonacci extension levels of the 1929 top and 1932 bottom (supercycle wave 3 top and wave 4 bottom).
You can see that the price chart respected all the fibonacci levels throughout its history.
And you can see that once it crossed and retested the 1.618 (first yellow circle), the price went to 2.618. It's possibly now doing the move from 2.618 (which it retested in the second yellow circle) to 3.618 (although it might peak at 3.272 or 3.414 and not reach 3.618).
Price action and the current narrative is simply retesting the fibonacci extension 3 level at around 35-36k.
It might seem crazy, the target of 140k DJI, but the price does what the price does (it often goes to meet 3.618 level), and especially if the parabolic 'summer' phase is coming, that price is not out of the realm of possibility in the coming few years
Not a financial advise of course, but just a theory.

You can see what the price did once it successfully retested the fibonacci extension level '2' in 1995. It went on a big fast move upwards, to eventually reach 2.618 level. And the retest of the fibonacci 2 happened exactly at the same time as the price crossed the middle line of the historic paralel channel.
This time price is retesting fibonacci extension level '3', at the same time it's hugging the upper line of the historical paralel channel (and is preparing to do the final phase - the 'summer' according to my theory). IMO that's just an additional confluence.
Time will tell :)

DJI_2025-04-14_17-50-55.png

And remember, cryptocurrencies (the good ones) are correlated to the movement of the stock market (and make bigger moves in both directions depending on the direction of the stock markets). (not a financial advise).
 
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Gwenllian said:
In case you posted after April 14th 2 a.m.: Scottie explains it here:
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Thank you.
By "why now?" I meant as "it's an interesting coincidence that forum posts got deleted (I don't remember that ever happened before, correct me if I'm wrong), exactly at the time that I shared what I see to be a very valuable information, that only a very small minority of the people in the world are aware of and understand. And is related to money (and possible opportunity/knowledge to acquire it), which is as we know energy in our realm.
Maybe someone got nervous with this information being available to the community here. 🤷‍♂️
 

Uncertainty Is Rising… and So Is the Opportunity​

When fear grips the consumer, people tend to panic and act on emotion. But these are often the moments that lead to some of the biggest wealth-building opportunities of our lifetime. In today’s Stock Market Brief, I’ll walk you through what’s really going on beneath the surface.
We cover the recent spike in hard landing expectations, the massive gap between Wall Street targets, and how institutions are pulling back while retail continues to chase upside. I’ll show you what CTAs and vol control funds are doing, and why their behavior might be setting the stage for a major shift. We’ll also take a look at extreme sentiment readings and consumer stress data that we haven’t seen since the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic.
We go deep into the Michigan sentiment survey, economic expectations, inflation outlook, and credit card delinquencies. I’ll also cover how to interpret the Fed’s recession probability models and why the setup today resembles past major turning points.
From the gamma flip line to the VIX term structure, the yield curve to backwardation, and key levels on the S&P 500 and NVDA, I’ll show you how I’m approaching this environment from a risk-first perspective. We wrap up by reviewing bottom-finding indicators that have helped mark pivots in the past.
If you want to be prepared for when opportunity strikes, this is the episode to watch.
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If Cs wanted to give us a hint to a money/energy increase opportunity ahead, how would they do it indirectly?
A: Yes, things may get dire as summer approaches. Just sit tight and hang on! Goodbye.
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Just a possibility to keep in mind and maybe utilize.
 
The tarifs against China has not worked out as planned. China as the worlds industrial supergiant didn't bow to the US and they are getting tired of the schizophrenic policies. China is also aware that it was the main target all along and are now setting strict conditions for when they will talk to the US again. In that context there was a good article on Telegram by Gerry Nolan, from the Islandernews.



♠️🇨🇳🇺🇸🃏The Empire Talks Peasants. China Responds Like a 5,000-Year-Old Civilization.

Only in the delusional corridors of Washington do you wage an economic war against a 5,000-year-old civilization, insult its people as “peasants,” and then expect a smiling trade delegation to show up and shake hands.

Beijing just gave its answer.

Respect, clarity, and coherence. Three demands. Not concessions. Terms.

After weeks of tariff escalations and bile from American officials, including VP JD Vance’s now-infamous “Chinese peasants” slur, China laid down its red lines: No negotiations until DC stops behaving like a petulant brat on Adderall. The Trump admin, eager for a photo-op win, now finds itself ghosted by the world’s industrial superpower.

You don’t insult a civilization that built the Silk Road when your own country didn’t exist until two centuries ago. You don’t mock the people who invented papermaking, the compass, and centralized governance while your ancestors were still trading rocks for buckskins. That’s not diplomacy. That’s hubris, and Beijing just slammed the door in its face.

Washington’s schizophrenic posture, Trump purring about his “love” for Xi Jinping while his cabinet flings racialized contempt from behind the podium, has only deepened the divide. Beijing has had enough of the bipolar empire. And it just made it official.

Here are the facts: Trump slapped a brutal 145% tariff on Chinese imports. Beijing retaliated with 125% on U.S. goods and cut Boeing out of its aviation plans entirely. Then came the full stop, no new aircraft, no parts, no discussions. This was after freezing US from critical rare earths. American defense, aerospace, and chip sectors, already fragile, just got a coffin nail.

China holds the cards. The U.S. hollowed out its industrial base decades ago. That’s not coming back with slogans or tariffs. You don’t reverse 30 years of deindustrialization by snapping your fingers. Multinationals can’t conjure factories in 12 months, they need 5-10 years and a labor force that no longer exists. Meanwhile, China controls 90% of rare earth processing, owns over $800 billion in U.S. treasuries, and trades with the entire Global Majority. It doesn’t need you. You need them, and you forgot.

Instead of seeking de-escalation, JD Vance mocked China’s people as “peasants,” as if the descendants of Confucius, Sun Tzu, and Mao Zedong would grovel for soybean shipments and used Fords. It was a cultural blunder of civilizational proportions.

China’s counter-message? We are not your colony. We are not your factory floor. And we will not sit across from you until you send someone who knows the meaning of statecraft.

Beijing now wants: A consistent, unified U.S. voice on trade. A single point person for negotiations. An end to public insults and diplomatic schizophrenia.

And, they’re not begging.

Wall Street took notice. U.S. equities slid, then surged briefly at news that China might still talk, if Washington stops acting like a banana republic with nukes. But even market euphoria won’t mask the real danger: a U.S. economy addicted to cheap Chinese goods and Chinese lending, with no backup plan but belligerence.

This isn’t 1985 and you're not Reagan. It’s not Japan. It’s not NAFTA. This is China, and it’s not blinking.

Meanwhile, President Xi is touring Southeast Asia, building new alliances and trade corridors while the U.S. tosses tariffs like Molotovs in the dark. He’s not responding to Trump. He’s not responding to Vance. He’s building a post-American trading order: quietly, confidently, and without a single mention of the “free world.”

The message is clear: When an empire confuses ignorance for leverage, all it earns is isolation. When it insults the world’s oldest civilization, it doesn’t get compliance, it gets consequences.

I'd call this the soft severing of the empire’s arteries, geopolitical karma.

And the Global South? They’re watching. Learning. And quietly taking notes. Welcome to multipolarity.

- Gerry Nolan

🎙Subscribe @TheIslanderNews

Donate - Support Our Work (Buy The Islander (Gerry Nolan) a Coffee)
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Trump said to Zelensky that you don't start a war with a country that is 20 times bigger and having to rely on weaponry from outside. It is hard not to see the irony of Trump then picking a fight with China which has an industrial base which is magnitudes greater than the US and then Trump relying on bullying other countries into siding with the US.
 
A rather alarming take on the action plan Trump is actually employing. It’s been awhile that Agenda 2025 has been a working policy. Scarier still is the notion that Trump is simply following the next step of what Biden, Trump 1.0, and Obama before him were doing. Brian Berletic lays it all out.

*note to admins: @Joe and @Niall , Brian is reading from his own article, which I definitely think should be published on SOTT.

 
I thought this video described accurately the chaotic situation the Trump administration is in at the moment on many fronts. The guys from The Duran seem to think that Trump really wants to MAGA and make peace in the hot spots around the world, but he is really just going the wrong way about it and he is getting a lot of bad advice from people around him with different agendas (neocons, Zionists). No 5D chess, but reading situations the wrong way and doing the wrong thing, with potentially very dangerous outcomes. That's how I tend to see it too.

For example, the tariffs thing could have been handled differently as a truly protectionist economic strategy, but now it's devolved into an economic war with China.

Don't be put off by the title of the video. A hot war with China is still a long ways to go, I think, and if I'm getting them right, The Duran is just saying that if the situation keeps going this way and deteriorates that's where things might end in the future.

 
I recently thought that one of the reasons why Trump is using the tariff thing the way he does is to artificially make his numbers look good:

If you announce and then install hefty tariffs and you know that many countries export into the USA, what happens? They sort of panic loosing their income stream and do things like stop or export less into the USA. But what happens when Trump then suddenly announces a 90 day stop of the tariffs? The same companies will now try to export/sell as much as they possibly can into the USA because there are suddenly no tariffs AND because they know that it is likely that Trump will install the tariffs again after the 90 days. Now imagine he will do that a number of times during his presidency. What is the end result of that? Suddenly there’s probably an well above average number of things sold into the US and thus the numbers look very good temporarily. Thus Trump can use this as proof how great he and his administration is, in the short or even longer term (after he is out). “I had the best numbers!“. In addition to that he might see that as a way to quickly bring a lot of products and capital into the USA, which he might need for other plans.

But take the above speculations with a big grain of salt: I have almost 0 knowledge in economics.
 
Olivierlejardinier said:
Maybe Trump doesn't want to open this can of worm yet... So many irons in his fire !!

From this post on X :
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I summed it up here

 
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