Trump Assassination of Iranian General Soleimani - IRGC Counterstrike

[Ursus Minor]

Veterans Today is citing the Russian site avia.pro

The EU will not impose sanctions against Iran for the destruction of the Ukrainian Boeing 737.


European leaders believe that the incident with the destruction of a Ukrainian passenger plane in the sky above the Iranian capital is not a basis for imposing sanctions on Tehran. The reason lies primarily in the fact that an investigation is currently underway, which obviously indicates the fact that the EU does not see Iran’s guilt in the defeat of the Boeing 737 passenger airliner.

“It is noted that the EU is not going to introduce anti-Iranian sanctions due to the disaster with the Ukrainian passenger plane. This is due to the fact that now the EU is waiting for the results of the investigation. The source noted that, depending on them, a decision on sanctions will be made.

The discussion will take place on January 20 at a meeting of EU foreign ministers. It is also planned to discuss the future of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program. The agreement provides for the lifting of sanctions against Iran in exchange for limiting its nuclear program.

Experts, in turn, note that the key reason for refusing to impose sanctions on Iran for a downed Ukrainian passenger plane is the possible fault of the United States of America, which could well use electronic warfare equipment to make a civilian aircraft look like a military one on Iranian air defense radars.

 

[Ursus Minor]

The alt.media are finally catching on by ditching the mainstream media's narrative about the PS 752 crash...
Here's one from Jim Stone who modestly calls himself "World Class Investigator":

Jim Stone

Final summary of the Iran shoot down of Ukranian jet

This report has changed a lot as new info has come in. Here is what happened:

Two minutes after take off, the transponder, communications, and lights on the aircraft were shut off, obviously via remote. It flew in this hacked configuration for approximately 4 minutes and 30 seconds before, in error, Iranian ground forces mistook it for a cruise missile and shot it down, with Iran's top nuclear physicists aboard. The plane was sent out during a no fly order to get the most important people (and their families) out of Iran before a war broke out, which Iran was expecting.

The only question in this story now is who interfered with communications between the airport, the military, and the pilots, who went dark for a considerable length of time before the missiles were launched. Approximately 1 minute after the first missile was launched, a second one was launched though the first one probably would have downed the plane despite it not being on fire. Eight minutes after take off, it crashed.

My guess is Israel is the one that hacked the plane and shut the transponder, lights and radios off to force it to fly completely dark, the way a cruise missile would. They are the only ones celebrating.

As corrupt as Ukraine is, Iran SHOULD NOT turn over the black boxes until they have at least copied what is on the cockpit voice recorder. If whatever is reported to have come off that voice recorder does not mimic what I just said above, the wrong people will have "analyzed it", you know, like how accurately American votes get counted.

 

[Joe]

According to Russian Experts: The US Bears “Partial Responsibility” for the “Human Error” Which Caused the Ukrainian plane crash – PaulCraigRoberts.org

A Russian military site Avia.pro has addressed the issue of “human error” relating to the crash of Ukraine’s Boeing 737 [departing from Tehran] on January 8, minutes after takeoff, which resulted in the death of 179 passengers and members of the crew.Relying on military experts, the report...

theduran.com

A Russian military site Avia.pro has addressed the issue of “human error” relating to the crash of Ukraine’s Boeing 737 [departing from Tehran] on January 8, minutes after takeoff, which resulted in the death of 179 passengers and members of the crew.

Relying on military experts, the report intimates that the incident bears a canny (point by point) resemblance to the destruction of a Russian IL-20 in Latakia, Syria in September 2018.

Israeli fighters, followed by Syrian missiles, used the Russian plane as a shield, even if it meant its destruction and the death of 15 passengers.

The Russian military website refers to an independent investigation that concluded the US is “at least partial US responsibility” in the January 8 tragedy:

“According to experts, the US military had deliberately changed the information on the Ukrainian Boeing 737 flight, making it a real target for the Iranian air defense systems.”

 

[Joe]

The article you quoted seems to take it for granted that the Tor system can detect the transponder signal.

The Boeing 737-800 was transmitting a unique transponder identification code. If the equipment on the SA-15 that picks that up, called an IFF interrogator, was malfunctioning...

Although I think it's a moot point because ADS-B has not replaced ground radar and transponders. Like most planes, the Ukie plane had an ADS-B system and a traditional transponder.

Why wouldn't it leave a trace? The combat vehicle of the system includes mission recording, so if he saw something weird about the radar track, why wouldn't it show up?

I mean there would be no way for him to prove that his system was fed wrong information, only, perhaps, that it received it. Which still puts the blame on "technical error". Maybe I'll amend the article to reflect that.

 

[Approaching Infinity]

I mean there would be no way for him to prove that his system was fed wrong information, only, perhaps, that it received it. Which still put the blame on "technical error".

Ahh, I see now. In that case, there's at least a chance of some evidence coming out, if the recordings show stuff that should not be there (e.g. the wrong speed, flight path, transponder signal, etc.). I just hope the Iranians don't completely throw this guy under the bus...

 

[angelburst29]

They is also this analysis that was posted recently by PolitRussia. Unfortunately the video is only in Russian. But the main points are that Israel assassinated Soleimani, but Trump took responsibility due to heavy monetary contributions from the Jewish lobby. Then Iran retaliated. And then US wanted to respond by taking down Iran's plane with military officials on board using a drone, and instead took down the Ukrainian airplane. And then Trump proposed Iranians to take the blame in order to sort of close the book on the issue and avoid an open conflict, but it sort of backfired by the usual and anti-Trump suspects reigniting the "revolution fever" in Iran.

Not sure I agree with the second part of his theory, especially with the US actually taking down the Ukrainian plane. But it's true that many experts in Russia propose that US drones that were flying in the area provoked the Iranians, and that it is possible that one of the drones flew close to the Ukranian plane, and the missile "chose" this target instead of the drone.

But, yeah, who knows if Israel wasn't involved here as well. After all, there are interesting coincidences regarding the downed plane itself that can't be easily ignored.

There could be a lot of truth in the analysis by PolitRussia, including the use of a drone to bring the plane down. I found the timing of a comment made by NATO"s Jens Stoltenberg to be interesting? Iran may have shot down Ukrainian passenger plane: NATO chief

And there is some information forthcoming on Trump being in touch with Iranian Officials via the Swiss Embassy in Tehran as intermediaries, shortly after the assassination of Soleimani. Personally, I don't get the impression that Trump was being "advised" by Pompeo, Esper and Milley of the planned assassination in Iraq of Soleimeni? I feel, Netanyahu was playing "a double-cross" by killing Soleimeni and setting up Trump "to take the blame" and in the process ... hoping to set off a war with Iran.

Ask yourself, "Would Trump immediately send secret encrypted faxes to Iran - to de-escalate the situation - if Trump was the one who planned the assassination"?

As for the protests, a British envoy to Tehran was arrested, then released for being part of an illegal protest ... then the UK and Germany got on Iran's back for arresting the envoy?

US reportedly sent secret messages to Iran via Swiss intermediaries, urging not to retaliate too strongly and further provoke Trump (Video)
The US reportedly sent secret messages to Iran via Swiss intermediaries, urging not to retaliate too strongly and further provoke Trump

* The United States used Swiss intermediaries to urge Iran not to retaliate so strongly that it would provoke President Donald Trump, The New York Times reported Saturday.

* The Swiss embassy in Tehran has long been used by the US government as a backchannel to communicate with the Iranians, according to The Wall Street Journal.

* After receiving the message from the US, Iran responded by striking military bases housing US forces, though leaving no American casualties, and sending a message saying there would be no further retaliation for now.

* The Times reported that that message ultimately convinced Trump to stand down.

United States officials used a secret backchannel to communicate with Iran in recent days, sending messages via Swiss intermediaries warning Iran not to retaliate so harshly that it would further provoke President Donald Trump, The New York Times reported Saturday.

The messages came not long after the Trump administration authorized strikes that killed the top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani, immediately escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier Saturday morning that the Trump administration sent an encrypted fax to Iran just hours after killing Soleimani, warning not to escalate.

The message set off several days' worth of communications between the two countries, using Swiss intermediaries. The Swiss embassy in Tehran has been used by the American government to communicate with Iran since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. "We don't communicate with the Iranians that much, but when we do the Swiss have played a critical role to convey messages and avoid miscalculation," one senior US official told The Journal.

The Times reported that the secret messages sent after Soleimani's killing urged Iran not to escalate tensions to the point where Trump would feel obligated to strike back even harder

After receiving the message, Iran responded by firing more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two Iraqi military bases housing US forces, though no Americans were killed.

According to The Times, Iran then sent a message back to the US via the Swiss saying there would be no further retaliation for now.

The newspaper reported that that message was forwarded to Washington within five minutes, and convinced Trump to stand down. It's still unclear whether Iran will seek to retaliate further in the near future. Read the original article on Business Insider

Iranians will pay the price for their country’s standoff with the US
Iranians will pay the price for their country’s standoff with the US

Iran’s attack against two American bases in Iraq in retaliation for the US killing its top commander, Qasem Soleimani, left no casualties. The US president appeared calm on Wednesday when he said in a news conference that no US lives were lost and that the bases attacked in Iraq suffered only minimal damage.

Donald Trump’s speech was seen as the end of major tensions between Iran and the US. In return, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, declared a ceasefire in a tweet: “Iran took and concluded proportionate measures.”

Trump, meanwhile, has not been pursuing a war that could reduce his chances for re-election.

U.S. envoy says it seems Iran concluded response to Soleimani killing
U.S. special envoy for Iran Brian Hook said on Friday it seems that Iran has concluded its retaliation for the U.S. killing of senior Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani.

Hours of forewarning saved U.S., Iraqi lives from Iran's missile attack
Nearly eight hours before Iran’s Jan. 8 missile attack on U.S. forces at bases in Iraq, American and Iraqi soldiers at Ain al-Asad air base scrambled to move personnel and weaponry to fortified bunkers, two Iraqi officers stationed at the base told Reuters.

~~~
Pentagon Chief Esper made a point in counter - correcting Trump ... and Trump diaagrees with U.S. Special Representative to Iran, Brian Hook that the new Sanctions would force Tehran to negotiate.

Trump believes Iran was targeting four U.S. embassies: Fox News
President Donald Trump said on Friday Iran probably had targeted the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and was aiming to attack four U.S. embassies when its top general, Qassem Soleimani, was killed in a U.S. drone strike.

Pentagon chief says no specific evidence Iran was plotting to attack four U.S. embassies
U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Sunday said he did not see specific evidence from intelligence officials that Iran was planning to attack four U.S. embassies, an assertion made by President Donald Trump in justifying the killing of Iran's top general.

U.S. sanctions policy on Iran more effective than 2015 nuclear deal: U.S. official
The United States' sanctions policy on Iran is a more effective non-proliferation tool to force Tehran to negotiate a broader deal than the 2015 nuclear deal, U.S. special representative for Iran Brian Hook said on Friday.

Trump says he 'couldn't care less' if Iran agrees to negotiate
U.S. President Donald Trump said Sunday he does not care if Iran agrees to negotiate with the United States after a senior adviser earlier suggested the Islamic Republic would have no choice but to agree to talks.

~~~
Recent articles on the plane crash:
Treasury will grant waivers to allow U.S. participation in Iran crash probe
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday the department will grant sanction waivers to allow Americans or any one else to participate in the investigation of Wednesday's crash of an Ukrainian International Boeing 737-800 airliner in Iran that killed 176 people.

Russia says no grounds to blame Iran for Ukrainian plane crash: TASS
A Russian deputy foreign minister said on Friday that Moscow currently sees no grounds to blame Iran for the crash of a Ukrainian airliner near Tehran, contradicting statements by Canada and others, the TASS news agency reported.

Don't hide truth behind airline crash, Germany tells Iran
Iran should not sweep the causes of a Ukrainian airline crash near Tehran under the carpet or it will risk worsening the climate of mistrust in the region and beyond, Germany's foreign minister said in Friday.

Ukrainian passenger plane shot by missile in Iran had not veered off its normal course: statement
The Ukrainian passenger plane shot down by a missile near Tehran had not veered off its normal course, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization said in a statement posted by the Tasnim news agency on Saturday.

Ukraine PM says state, airline will give money to families of Iran crash victims
Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk said on Saturday that Ukraine would pay 200,000 hryvnia ($8,350) each to the families of those who died in a plane crash in Iran this week.

Ukraine says Iran cooperating in plane crash probe, cautious on blaming missile
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said on Friday that Iran was cooperating with an investigation into the crash of a Ukrainian passenger plane, and that Kiev was not ruling out any version yet of what might have happened.

Pompeo offers Ukraine's Zelenskiy U.S. help in Iran crash probe
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday offered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy U.S. help in the investigation of a Ukrainian plane crash in Iran.

~~~
Some problems with a UK envoy inciting anti-government protests:
UK envoy to Tehran arrested for several hours for inciting anti-government protesters: Tasnim
A British envoy to Tehran was arrested for several hours in front of Amir Kabir University for inciting anti-government protesters, the Tehran-based Tasnim news agency said on Saturday.

Iran summons UK envoy over his attendance at 'illegal' rally
Iran summoned the UK envoy on Sunday to complain about his attendance at an "illegal" rally in Tehran to commemorate those killed in a Ukrainian airliner mistakingly downed by the country's military forces, Iranian Foreign Ministry's website reported.

UK denounces brief arrest of envoy in Tehran as violation of law
Britain's Foreign Office confirmed on Saturday that the country's ambassador in Tehran was briefly detained by Iranian authorities, denouncing the arrest as a "flagrant violation of international law".

Iran's judiciary brands UK ambassador 'undesirable': state media
Iran's judiciary said on Tuesday that Britain's ambassador to Tehran was an "undesirable element", state media reported, after Iranian officials accused him of attending an illegal protest despite his denials.

Hardline militia rallies at UK embassy in Iran, demands closure: report
Iran's hardline Basij militia staged a demonstration outside Britain's embassy in Tehran on Sunday demanding that it be closed, Iranian state media reported.

Iran's envoy to UK denies any clearing of plane crash site: Sky TV
The Iranian ambassador to Britain denied on Friday reports that Iran had bulldozed the crash site in Iran of a Ukrainian plane that Canada and others say was brought down by a missile, he told Sky News.

Opposition Green Movement official calls on Iran Supreme Leader to step down: Saham News
A leader of Iran's opposition Green Movement, Mehdi Karroubi, called on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the top authority in the Islamic Republic, to step down over the handling of the shooting down of the Ukrainian airliner.

Tehran police chief denies shots fired at protesters: Iran state media
Police in the Iranian capital did not fire on protesters and officers have been under orders to show restraint, Tehran's police chief said in a statement carried by the state broadcaster's website on Monday.

Iran denies shooting at protesters amid fury over downing of plane
Iran's police said on Monday officers had not fired at protesters demonstrating over Tehran's admission that it shot down a passenger plane, as video on social media recorded gunshots and pools of blood.

Iran makes arrests over plane disaster as protests rage on
Iran said on Tuesday it had arrested people accused of a role in shooting down a Ukrainian airliner and had also detained 30 people involved in protests that have swept the nation for four days since the military belatedly admitted its error.

Aviation officials from Iran, Ukraine, Canada hold meeting over crash: Iran state media (Tuesday Jan. 14, 2020)
Aviation officials from Iran, Ukraine and Canada held a meeting in Tehran on Tuesday over the investigation of the crash of a Ukrainian airliner in Iran last week, Iranian state TV reported in an online post.

Iran's president says downing Ukrainian plane an 'unforgivable error'
Iran will punish all those responsible for the accidental shooting down of a Ukrainian passenger plane, President Hassan Rouhani said in a televised speech on Tuesday, adding that the "tragic event" would be investigated thoroughly.

Trump: Timing of threat from Soleimani 'doesn't really matter'

President Donald Trump fueled controversy on Monday over his decision to kill Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani by saying "it doesn't really matter" whether Soleimani posed an imminent threat to the United States.

Pompeo says Soleimani killing part of new strategy to deter U.S. foes

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday said Qassem Soleimani was killed as part of a broader strategy of deterring challenges by U.S. foes that also applies to China and Russia further diluting the assertion that the top Iranian general was struck because he was plotting imminent attacks on U.S. targets.

U.S. House committee threatens subpoena if Pompeo will not provide Iran information

The chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee threatened on Tuesday to subpoena Secretary of State Mike Pompeo if he does not provide information about Iran policy and President Donald Trump's ordering the strike that killed an Iranian military commander.

U.S. House chairman 'frustrated' Pompeo refused to testify on Iran
The Democratic chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee said on Monday he was "disappointed and frustrated" that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had declined to testify at a committee hearing on Iran set for Tuesday.

 

[Approaching Infinity]

Interesting statement from Rouhani:

“The Judiciary should establish a special court, headed by a senior judge and tens of experts, to investigate the plane incident,” Rouhani said on Tuesday on the sidelines of a domestic agricultural exhibition in Tehran.

The president said, “Since the moment I realized the incident could have happened due to an unusual reason, I made every effort to reduce the investigation time so that we would know the cause of the crash.”

Rouhani further said, “I promise all the families of the victims in Iran and all other countries – as I told their leaders and authorities in phone conversations – that the government will follow the case with all its capacities and power.”

“This is not an ordinary case, and the whole world is watching us,” he added.

If they suspect or know that there was something highly irregular about the radar return that led to the shootdown, this might be a good strategy: take full blame, and then potentially be exonerated to some degree after conducting a joint investigation with Western countries (Canada, Ukraine), in which the details come out.

 

[Nachtweide]

In a transcript that I no longer find there was this statement regarding 11.9 as a tactical distraction. If you attack yourself, you will look like the victim. Nobody will suspect that they are the real culprit and look for the cause outside. This maneuver can also be played in the other direction. Admit the blame because you know that international investigations will relieve you and make you a victim of the perpetrator. It is quite possible that Iran quickly assumed a debt. Your information about the process is very unlikely, the investigations will reveal it. If it were, it should be very uncomfortable as Iran's position becomes much stronger.

 

[goyacobol]

4-6 minutes Associated Press in Dubai Snip: Tue 14 Jan 2020 09.08 GMT

Thanks @c.a. .

The part that stood out to me was:

The downing and the lack of transparency around it has reignited anger in Iran at the country’s leadership, with protesters taking to the streets. Videos and witness accounts appeared to show security forces firing live ammunition and teargas to disperse protests.

It just looks like a mission accomplished for the perpetrators of the downing.

It really seems like the main goal of whether the radar was "spoofed" or not was to further divide and bring down the current "regime" and who would have the most to gain? Could it be Israel?

 

[goyacobol]

They is also this analysis that was posted recently by PolitRussia. Unfortunately the video is only in Russian. But the main points are that Israel assasinated Soleimani, but Trump took responsibilty due to heavy monetary contributions from the Jewish lobby. Then Iran retaliated. And then US wanted to respond by taking down Iran's plane with military officials on board using a drone, and instead took down the Ukranian airplane. And then Trump proposed Iranians to take the blame in order to sort of close the book on the issue and avoid an open conflict, but it sort of backfired by the usual and anti-Trump suspects reigniting the "revolution fever" in Iran.

Not sure I agree with the second part of his theory, especially with the US actually taking down the Ukranian plane. But it's true that many experts in Russia propose that US drones that were flying in the area provoked the Iranians, and that it is possible that one of the drones flew close to the Ukranian plane, and the missile "chose" this target instead of the drone.

But, yeah, who knows if Israel wasn't involved here as well. After all, there are interesting coincidences regarding the downed plane itself that can't be easily ignored.

@Keit ,

Thanks for the Russian perspective. I was fascinated by the views expressed that seem very plausible from looking at the U.S. from a more unbiased point of view. I can see how the commentator would have a very different interpretation of these recent events.

I captured screenshots of the translation to try and understand how many Russians might have a very different view of the motivations behind the civilian plane being shot down by Iran.

I may have missed a few quotes and be slightly out of order but for English translation, I thought the comments were very interesting.

 

[goyacobol]

This thread is a cornucopia of information and if you try to absorb as much as you can the complexity is staggering I think.

Some pieces that I noticed that created a kind of mosaic for me:

Webb discusses proxies

Whitney Webb (Mint Press), Blows Open Soleimani Killing, Iran Conflict, Boeing Crash & Global Espionage -

Link Tor system video

There are so many players that there is not even a game I know of that could handle "Who's on first?".

 

[thorbiorn]

This thread is a cornucopia of information and if you try to absorb as much as you can the complexity is staggering I think.

True, it is an exercise in being open to many possibilities. If only talking about the crash, then knowing about the plane, its route, schedule, navigation systems, knowing about weapons systems, their possibilities and limitations, helps. It is interesting to read creative interpretations of the event that surrounded the crash:

Was Flight 752 shot down with a MANPAD? Tor-M1 missile would have immediately blown up the plane

This is a follow-on to the excellent reporting by Russell Bentley at Fort Russ News, as well, this author's initial piece at Fort Russ on the subject of Flight 752. In the downing of Flight 752 we'll look at three kilogram verses fifteen kilogram...

www.sott.net

Iran Jet Disaster Setup: Was Electronic Warfare in Play?

The 19-second video published by the New York Times last week showing the moment an Iranian missile hit a passenger jet has prompted much social media skepticism. Questions arise about the improbable timing and circumstances of recording the...

www.sott.net

Iranian flight crash: Facts not adding up

There remain a lot of unanswered questions and implausible explanations in the story of the Ukrainian airliner shot down near Tehran on January 8th, 2020. And while the Iranians have publicly and officially taken responsibility, there may be...

www.sott.net

Was Iranian Missile Operator Tricked Into Shooting Down The Ukrainian Airlines Plane Over Tehran?

The Iranian confession that their military shot down the Ukraine International Airlines plane near Tehran is the end of the matter as far as international diplomacy and the media is concerned. The official story then about what happened is this:...

www.sott.net

Overall Joe has a point, there sure seems to be a lot of "By deception ...".

 

[Ursus Minor]

Iranian Military Now Claims US ‘Cyberattack’ Brought Down Passenger Plane

Steve Watson
SUMMIT News

As new video shows 2nd missile striking plane, Iran blames “enemy sabotage”

The Iranian military is now blaming the US (again) for the downing of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752, after it admitted that IRGC commanders shot the plane out of the sky last week, and in the wake of a new video emerging showing a SECOND missile was fired at the civilian airliner.

Iran Guardian Council chairman Ahmad Jannati stated Wednesday that “enemy sabotage” cannot be ruled out, while Brigadier General Ali Abdollahi directly suggested that US military forces hacked Iran’s radar systems to make it appear that the airliner, containing 176 people, was an incoming missile.

Abdollahi also seemed to suggest that the US military hackers could have actually shot down the plane as part of a cyber attack to make Iran look bad, according to the report.

After initially claiming “mechanical error” caused the plane to crash, then admitting they shot it down ‘by mistake’ after evidence of a missile strike could no longer be denied, Iran has now pivoted back to directly blaming the US.
There is no evidence that the US took any military or other action in Iran on the evening the airliner was struck.
Iran’s flip-flopping comes after intense protests over the airliner downing and attempted cover-up, and the emergence of a new video showing a second ‘kill shot’ missile was fired, throwing the ‘mistake’ explanation into serious doubt.

Read on at: Summit.news

 

[sToRmR1dR]

'Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster', the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said.

Unverified information: At least six American F-35 jets were 'in the Iranian border area' at the time when Iran accidentally downed Ukraine International Airlines flight, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

6 F-35 jets were reportedly on Iran’s borders at time of plane crash: Russia

Russia’s acting foreign minister says there is unverified information that six US F-35 jets were “in the Iranian border area” when a Ukrainian plane was accidentally downed by Iran.

www.presstv.com

17 January 2020

 

[anka]

Global Research published a piece (this article was originally published on the American Herald Tribune) which refers to Joe's article:

Who Targeted Ukraine Airlines Flight 752? Iran Shot It Down but There May be More to the Story
Philip M.Giraldi
January 16, 2020

Philip M. Giraldi is a former CIA counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer who served nineteen years overseas in Turkey, Italy, Germany, and Spain. He was the CIA Chief of Base for the Barcelona Olympics in 1992 and was one of the first Americans to enter Afghanistan in December 2001. Phil is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a Washington-based advocacy group that seeks to encourage and promote a U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East that is consistent with American values and interests. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

The claim that Major General Qassem Soleimani was a “terrorist” on a mission to carry out an “imminent” attack that would kill hundreds of Americans turned out to be a lie, so why should one believe anything else relating to recent developments in Iran and Iraq? To be sure, Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 departing from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport on the morning of January 8th with 176 passengers and crew on board was shot down by Iranian air defenses, something which the government of the Islamic Republic has admitted, but there just might be considerably more to the story involving cyberwarfare carried out by the U.S. and possibly Israeli governments.

To be sure, the Iranian air defenses were on high alert fearing an American attack in the wake of the U.S. government’s assassination of Soleimani on January 3rd followed by a missile strike from Iran directed against two U.S. bases in Iraq. In spite of the tension and the escalation, the Iranian government did not shut down the country’s airspace. Civilian passenger flights were still departing and arriving in Tehran, almost certainly an error in judgment on the part of the airport authorities. Inexplicably, civilian aircraft continued to take off and land even after Flight 752 was shot down.

Fifty-seven of the passengers on the flight were Canadians of Iranian descent, leading Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to point the finger both at the Iranian government for its carelessness and also at Washington, observing angrily that the Trump Administration had deliberately and recklessly sought to “escalate tensions” with Iran through an attack near Baghdad Airport, heedless of the impact on travelers and other civilians in the region.

What seems to have been a case of bad judgements and human error does, however, include some elements that have yet to be explained. The Iranian missile operator reportedly experienced considerable “jamming” and the planes transponder switched off and stopped transmitting several minutes before the missiles were launched. There were also problems with the communication network of the air defense command, which may have been related.

*** How Iran’s Soviet Era Air Defense System Shot Down America’s Global Hawk UAV over Strait of Hormuz ***

The electronic jamming coming from an unknown source meant that the air defense system was placed on manual operation, relying on human intervention to launch. The human role meant that an operator had to make a quick judgment in a pressure situation in which he had only moments to react. The shutdown of the transponder, which would have automatically signaled to the operator and Tor electronics that the plane was civilian, instead automatically indicated that it was hostile. The operator, having been particularly briefed on the possibility of incoming American cruise missiles, then fired.

The two missiles that brought the plane down came from a Russian-made system designated SA-15 by NATO and called Tor by the Russians. Its eight missiles are normally mounted on a tracked vehicle. The system includes both radar to detect and track targets as well as an independent launch system, which includes an Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system functionality capable of reading call signs and transponder signals to prevent accidents. Given what happened on that morning in Tehran, it is plausible to assume that something or someone deliberately interfered with both the Iranian air defenses and with the transponder on the airplane, possibly as part of an attempt to create an aviation accident that would be attributed to the Iranian government.

The SA-15 Tor defense system used by Iran has one major vulnerability. It can be hacked or “spoofed,” permitting an intruder to impersonate a legitimate user and take control. The United States Navy and Air Force reportedly have developed technologies “that can fool enemy radar systems with false and deceptively moving targets.” Fooling the system also means fooling the operator. The Guardian has also reported independently how the United States military has long been developing systems that can from a distance alter the electronics and targeting of Iran’s available missiles.

The same technology can, of course, be used to alter or even mask the transponder on a civilian airliner in such a fashion as to send false information about identity and location. The United States has the cyber and electronic warfare capability to both jam and alter signals relating to both airliner transponders and to the Iranian air defenses. Israel presumably has the same ability. Joe Quinn at Sott.net also notes an interested back story to those photos and video footage that have appeared in the New York Times and elsewhere showing the Iranian missile launch, the impact with the plane and the remains after the crash, to include the missile remains. They appeared on January 9th, in an Instagram account called ‘Rich Kids of Tehran‘. Quinn asks how the Rich Kids happened to be in “a low-income housing estate on the city’s outskirts [near the airport] at 6 a.m. on the morning of January 8th with cameras pointed at the right part of the sky in time to capture a missile hitting a Ukrainian passenger plane…?”

Put together the Rich Kids and the possibility of electronic warfare and it all suggests a premeditated and carefully planned event of which the Soleimani assassination was only a part. There have been riots in Iran subsequent to the shooting down of the plane, blaming the government for its ineptitude.

Some of the people in the street are clearly calling for the goal long sought by the United States and Israel, i.e. “regime change.” If nothing else, Iran, which was widely seen as the victim in the killing of Soleimani, is being depicted in much of the international media as little more than another unprincipled actor with blood on its hands. There is much still to explain about the downing of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752.

There is an analysis from Russian analyst V.Pyakin who takes a very different angle to explain the processes behind the whole thing.
The following video is unfortunately in Russian only, nearly 80 mins long and focuses almost exclusively on all the events of Soleimani's death, attack on the US base in Iraq and shooting down the Flight 752.

Pyakin brings attention to the fact that the plane crash was caused by bombs in engines. I have not researched enough but the photos of debris allegedly show the rotor blades exploding in a way that leaves no other explanation (detonation from inside). However Pyakin puts the events into a much wider perspective, besides discussing role of Russia in ME he includes events in Libya (also discussed on SOTT in Steve Brown's article) and the role of Erdogan (how he moved 3.500 ISIS fighters from Syria to Lybia in the last two days of 2019 but he did not arrange moving some weaponry for them over there and ended up defeated by Haftar badly so in the end he had to ask Russia for help to save Turkey's ass so Russia probably will be the main player to profit from the whole situation - which could mean peace for Lybia).

As goyacobol noted, there's so much info to digest and it is very difficult to see the whole picture but that's how it goes with so many clans and fractions involved.

One interesting point of Pyakin (who compared killing of Soleimani to Che Guevara's) was that Soleimani has become undesired as he was openly interested only in military side of things and refused to become a political player but at the same time he was making political statements, therefore influencing political processes of ME so even the leading group in Iran which is happy to receive a great support from global elite in order to become the main player worldwide was becoming uncomfortable with Soleimani. If he was willing to play his part in the clan he would still be alive. Now he has only become a trademark martyr which will be cleverly exploited for various purposes. And so it allegedly was with Che Guevara (CEO at Cuba's central bank after revolution BTW) who was so eager to spread the revolutionary ideas around the world without understanding the way of global affairs management by the shadowy global elites so he had to be removed.

Sorry if I am mixing too much stuff here without understanding it all. I just tried to pinpoint some interesting passages from Pyakin's talk to those who won't be able to understand the language.