Watch the skies and land and oceans

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The arrival of Storm Kirk on the Basque Coast​


Storm Kirk: 20,000 homes remain without electricity, particularly in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques and Doubs France regions​


Heavy rainfall as remnants of storm Kirk sweep across France and Belgium​


Storm Kirk: a month's rain in 24 hours, hospital under surveillance... In Essonne, ‘the situation is not good’.​


Depression Kirk: Eure-et-Loir and Seine-et-Marne on red alert for flooding, three departments on orange alert​


Spain: Kirk leaves hurricane-force winds of more than 200 km/h and from Friday a new squall will bring more rain.​


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Massive flood on the road due to heavy rainfall in the Makkah, Saudi Arabia (10.10.2024)​


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Sun activity:
Good morning, folks.
We're all waiting.
Big solar shockwave expected to impact Earth today, level 4 geomagnetic storm predicted.


We'll also go over what we're watching and some top level science news, but let's start
with the last 24 hours on our star.
After the X-class flare we covered in our morning and afternoon videos yesterday, the
sun didn't exactly go silent but didn't really enhance the Earth-directed situation either.
Another X-class flare and an M7.7 erupted from the departing spots over at the limb
on the right.


That grouping is now heading out of view and is unlikely to show up much more on the flare
chart again, leaving the Earth-facing spots to do the work.
The proton storm did hit level 3 yesterday and is riding near that line still here this
morning.

The polar regions have been taking extreme proton bombardment for an entire day now.
But of course, it was the Earth-directed X-class flare and CME that we are most concerned about.
It is due to impact in the coming hours and NOAA has forecast a KP8, level 4, geomagnetic
storm conditions.


We'll see what happens when it arrives, which will be very easy to spot in the solar wind
data with things calming down significantly over the last 12 hours, all quiet in near
Earth space right now.
Some good news is that these coronal holes are pretty well confined to high latitudes,
meaning their faster solar wind streams likely won't directly impact the Earth.
And in addition to monitoring the sunspots, I'm also watching this mass of plasma filament
south of the northern coronal hole.
Remember, these filaments can erupt without a flare warning.

Let's go next to the science articles where we begin with about the 10th study in the
last two years waving a red flag on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapse
risk.
Here they find modern climate models underestimate that risk, which is a little scary given how
many of them are already calling for it to happen in the next few years.
By the way, that collapse is what happened in the movie The Day After Tomorrow that instantly
froze the world.


Excellent paper up next here.
It seems no matter where they look, they find the connection between solar activity and
atmospheric conditions.
Here, they went to the North Pole and still found an 11-year cycle in stratospheric temperatures
matching up perfectly with the 11-year sunspot cycle.

Lastly on the article front, long-time watchers know there are hundreds of papers on solar
and geomagnetic activity impacting the heart.

Here's one more.
Not only does this have relevance for solar storms like what's coming today, but for the
overall geomagnetic field weakening in the ongoing magnetic pole shift.
Remember, we've got the gardening and foraging class at the ranch on Saturday, the 12th.
I'll do a Q&A afterwards.
Then my 40th birthday at the ranch is October 19th.
And in November we will bring back the science conferences.
All the relevant information, Q&A time, much more.
Links below, ObserverRanch.com.
We greatly appreciate your support.
We'll do this all again tomorrow.
Right here, but right now at 6am in the new valley of the sun.
Eyes open.
No fear.
Be safe everyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYyZdiRGwak
 

Northern lights began to appear over Russia after a powerful magnetic storm

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The fourth level (G4) magnetic storm, makes most regions of Russia are seeing the aurora right now It is expected to last at least another two days. A magnetic storm of this kind can cause power outages, break equipment and even cause health problems for people
dependent on the weather.
 

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It seems Kirk was not so violent but brought a lot of water. There is a lot of floods in France:

Storm Kirk: France Seine-et-Marne and Eure-et-Loir to remain under red alert for flooding on Saturday​

Tempête Kirk : la Seine-et-Marne et l’Eure-et-Loir maintenus en vigilance rouge pour crues samedi - Le Parisien


UK and Russia are already cold.

Cold Devastates UK Growing Season—Second-Worst Harvest Ever; Russia To -28.1C (-18.6F);​


US - Flood in Delaware now:
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View attachment 102321

Sun news of the day:
Good morning, folks.
The solar storm did not disappoint.
We've got aurora photos coming in from everywhere, including some shots I got in Colorado Springs.
We've got full details, technological impacts, and two great science stories from deep space
as well.

Let's begin with the last 24 hours on our star.
Very quiet, kind of thankful for that given how active the geomagnetic conditions were all day.
We're still watching the sunspots and that massive plasma filament on the north, but
the big story was, of course, CME impact.
You can see in the solar wind data, as I said yesterday morning, easily recognizable, the
impact, amidst the calmer solar wind stream.
Moderate density, but very fast plasma speed and a magnetic orientation that coupled with
Earth's magnetic field and delivered a powerful pressure shockwave to our planet yesterday.
It was so easy to see on pretty much every detector, magnetic disruptions began instantly,
and the geoelectric induction surged currents through most of the globe.
We reached level four storm conditions very quickly and at times really looked like we
were creeping towards KP9, a level five storm.


While we luckily avoided currents strong enough to take out large scale grids, we did see
the system issues at regional and local scales.
They began pretty much all at the exact same time, ranging from power distribution disruption
to online service outages and cellular trouble.
There was the expected uptick in electrical and transformer fires in the hours that followed,
and magnificent pink auroras were seen from Europe to the southern United States.


I caught these two shots right before bed here in Colorado Springs, towering pink streaks
with green lighting up the lower level clouds as well.
A fantastic display by our star.
Let's go next to deep space.

Where a very distant galaxy is making some waves in the astronomical community, they
say there is the unmistakable and telltale signs that this early galaxy is very well
organized and it's rotating.
It isn't all that unusual in the modern and local universe, but back then it wasn't supposed
to be that way, formed too early and got too organized to match the accepted cosmological
models.
It's another break from the lambda-cold dark matter science.

Lastly here on the article front, we're seeing a sodium cloud surrounding an exoplanet, and
they figured out it can't possibly be coming from the planet or its nearby star.
They're pretty sure it's a volcanic exomoon, like Jupiter's Io.
This would be some of the most solid evidence in existence for exomoons and the first detection
of them by this method, certainly the first to potentially be volcanic.
Very cool.
[...]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjEy6keX9g8
 
Still new floods around the planet today.

Massive flood on the road due to heavy rainfall in the Makkah, Saudi Arabia:
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Floods in Morocco's Sahara Desert for the first time in 50 years after extremely rare deluge:

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Sao Paulo heavy rain, intense wind and hail Brazil:
Storm Comes 'Out of Nowhere' in Sao Paulo

Powerful storm knocks out power to 1.6 million in Brazil's largest city:
More than 1.6 million people in Sao Paulo were without power on Saturday more than 16 hours after a brief but powerful storm swept through South America's largest city.

Officials in Sao Paulo state said that record wind gusts Friday night of up to 67 mph (108 kph) knocked down transmission lines and uprooted trees. causing severe damage in some parts. The storm also shut down several airports and interrupted water service in several areas, according to the Sao Paulo state government.

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Very interesting remarks from Suspicious0bservers observations:
Good morning, folks. Today we're going to look at two planetary studies, one on Jupiter and the other on Uranus.
We've also got one of the weirdest but most damning studies on atmospheric temperature I've seen in a long time.
But let's begin, as always, with the last 24 hours on our star.

We had a few more M-class solar flares, including one that released a CME just left of center disk.
SOHO does show that one should miss the Earth.
It was a busy end of the week geomagnetically, but now the storm is over and the planetary electrodynamics are returning to normal.
The solar storm was at level 4 for about 18 hours, level 3 for about 6 more after that.
The auroral data coming in is as astounding as it was back in May, but this storm was 10 times weaker.
We'll be covering that in a special video in the coming days.
Meanwhile, we're still watching the sunspots. They have already proven they can flare, so we'll have eyes on them today and tomorrow.

Let's go to Jupiter, where a very cool viewing campaign was focused on the Great Red Spot and how it changes over short periods of time.
Over the long term, it is slowly shrinking, but it also has pretty dramatic changes on the weeks to months time scales.
Fantastic shots of that here.

Up next, we're going to Uranus, where both Hubble and New Horizons simultaneously took shots of the planet.
The main goal is to determine the cloud movement and character of cloud features, but they also remark how the planet was dimmer than they believed it would be.

Veteran observers here, tell me that doesn't make you ask if the dust content of the solar system, increasing due to the arrival of the galactic current sheet, isn't impacting the atmosphere in that way.
I know it was the first thing that popped into my head.
Top science article is this one.
They found perhaps the silliest, but still very relevant, reason for why atmospheric temperatures appear to be going up so much.
In addition to everything else we have covered on that topic, the degradation of the white paint put on every single temperature station fades and flakes over time, increasing the absorption of solar radiation.
You can't believe how much this has skewed the temperature readings.
Basically, take almost half of the heating we're told has taken place and throw it in the trash from just this one problem.


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Folks, today is the Garden and Foraging event and my Q&A is afterwards at Observer Ranch.
Link is below and there is still time to book.
There's also a link to my 40th birthday and that sponsor stepped in and said the next several people who register using the promo code "BenIs40" will get about 50% off their ticket.
That's on October 19th.
Links to those are below and you can always go book a time to come see us at Observer Ranch dot com.
Can't wait to meet more of you face to face.
We greatly appreciate your support.
We'll do this all again tomorrow.
Right here, right now, at 6am in the new valley of the sun.
Eyes open.
No fear.
Be safe everyone.
See you next time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CeqsLL-ils
 
Still lot people without power in the US after hurricane Milton:

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New photos of the flood in Khemisset, Morocco desert:

--- New floods of the day ---​


Heavy flood due to extreme rainfall in the Marbella of Málaga province, Spain:


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Powerful wind storm hits in Sao Paulo, Brazil:


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Floods hammer the capital of Sri Lanka Colombo:
 
Today :

--- On the land ---​

After Kirk, ex-hurricane Leslie will cause (another) deluge in France from Tuesday onwards:
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The evening of Tuesday 15 October will mark the start of a rainy week, particularly in the departments of Hérault, Gard and Ardèche, where violent winds will also be felt. The rainfall will spread to the western half of the country from Wednesday, and will be heavy. Thundershowers could even occur locally, particularly in the Cévennes, where rainfall totals could reach 150 millimetres.
Leslie.gif

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Massive flooding on the highway due to torrential rain in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia:

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Nigeria:

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The fragility of our societies in the face of climatic events:
In this article, we look at the lesson taught by the cataclysmic event of Helene. You'll see that it should make you think. The moderns of the new world, inhuman and loveless, full of illusion and enjoyment of what is forbidden (even by natural law), are leading us to destruction without a future. We need to send them packing and fight every day against the so-called green politicians of the new world who represent them. In the end, the worst ecologists are idealists who knowingly destroy without knowing how to rebuild. Worse still, all these green faddists want to prevent the ephemeral world they are building on the rubble of Christian civilisation from surviving.
This should give us pause for thought and lead us to think not constructively, but SURVIVABLY. Be convinced that this world built by the Barrabas of the synagogue of Satan will only lead to the world of ‘MAD MAX’ and nothing else. They are nihilists and all they have to offer is chaos. And because they are liars, they run up debts to keep the simpletons in ILLUSION so that they see nothing and find themselves caught in a downward spiral with no way out.

By J.A. Tucker - Most of the things we use today have not been stress tested. They are centralised and have a single point of failure. And they are very vulnerable. Everything can stop in an instant, with no guarantee of return.
A turning point for me came recently when I visited a small basement laundry in Manhattan. The owner was still using a 1948 sewing machine. She didn't want anything to do with the latest models. After that, I started looking at machines from other retailers in my area. Many sewing machines are 75 years old and still work well. My shoemaker uses equipment that is over a century old. That's not unusual.
They can all continue to work with a generator and a good supply of fuel. They're ready. It's also why people hang on to their old petrol cars without all the fancy equipment. They're more reliable and you can fix what's broken. It's better to keep the old car in good condition than to opt for a new car that won't last long.

These days, few things are designed for the long term. We buy smartphones and computers knowing full well that we'll be buying new ones in a few years' time. Repairs are less and less possible. The same goes for household appliances: they are out of use after five to ten years. And so many of them depend on digital applications to function. House locks, car locks, ignitions, lights and so much more depend entirely on a network of hooks that require everything to be in perfect working order.

But what if it's all a house of cards?

Imagine everything falling apart, not for an hour or a day, but for weeks. Or months. This is precisely what happened to the residents of the regions worst affected by Hurricane Hélène. As we know, the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not up to the task, but above all, it tried to put a stop to private efforts in many documented cases. Elon Musk had to take to social media to beg the government to allow him to provide free internet access to the public, because all other options were dead.

Money died. Credit cards stopped working. ATMs were dead. All communications stopped. The only way to conduct transactions was with cash, silver, gold or barter. Electric cars could no longer be recharged. Door locks jammed. You could no longer access your bank. The internet disappeared in the blink of an eye. In short, the whole of the 21st century vanished in an instant.

--- On the sky ---​

Comet A3 is the brightest comet in 27 years! Don’t miss it
In case you haven’t heard … Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) – aka Comet A3 – is in the evening sky! And it’s the brightest comet in 27 years, the brightest since Hale-Bopp in 1997. Look to the right of the bright planet Venus for Comet A3’s long wispy tail.

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Atmospheric rivers are shifting poleward, reshaping global weather patterns​

Atmospheric rivers – those long, narrow bands of water vapor in the sky that bring heavy rain and storms to the U.S. West Coast and many other regions – are shifting toward higher latitudes, and that’s changing weather patterns around the world.

The shift is worsening droughts in some regions, intensifying flooding in others, and putting water resources that many communities rely on at risk. When atmospheric rivers reach far northward into the Arctic, they can also melt sea ice, affecting the global climate.

In a new study published in Science Advances, University of California, Santa Barbara, climate scientist Qinghua Ding and I show that atmospheric rivers have shifted about 6 to 10 degrees toward the two poles over the past four decades.

[...]
A shift in atmospheric rivers can have big effects on local climates.

In the subtropics, where atmospheric rivers are becoming less common, the result could be longer droughts and less water. Many areas, such as California and southern Brazil, depend on atmospheric rivers for rainfall to fill reservoirs and support farming. Without this moisture, these areas could face more water shortages, putting stress on communities, farms and ecosystems.

In higher latitudes, atmospheric rivers moving poleward could lead to more extreme rainfall, flooding and landslides in places such as the U.S. Pacific Northwest, Europe, and even in polar regions.

In the Arctic, more atmospheric rivers could speed up sea ice melting
, adding to global warming and affecting animals that rely on the ice. An earlier study I was involved in found that the trend in summertime atmospheric river activity may contribute 36% of the increasing trend in summer moisture over the entire Arctic since 1979.

 
Ex-hurricane Leslie hits Spain:

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After the tumultuous passage of storm Berenice, former hurricane Leslie, which formed off the coast of Cape Verde, is already unleashing torrential rain in Spain and Portugal.

Transformed into a simple depression typical of our temperate latitudes, Leslie was nonetheless a category 2 hurricane, having formed on 2 October 600 kilometres from the Cape Verde archipelago. The former hurricane is now heading straight for the Iberian peninsula.

Torrents of water

These countries have already had to contend with storm Berenice since 11 October. Up to 167 mm of rain fell in Castelo Branco, in central Portugal, while more than 100 mm was recorded in Grazalema, in southern Spain, in Andalusia.

In the provinces of Madrid, Toledo and Andalusia, the situation is particularly serious, with many villages having to cope with major flooding, causing considerable devastation.

The Special Emergency Plan activated

Faced with the arrival of the remains of former hurricane Leslie, the authorities activated the Special Emergency Plan for flood risks in Andalusia. Between 80 and 100 mm of rain is still expected to fall in these regions on soil that is already saturated with water, raising fears of further flooding.

Massive flooding in Tamarite de Litera in the province of Huesca, Spain

Torrential rains in Oman:

Alpes-Maritimes, France:


France: Torrential rain, flash floods near Nice, impressive images
 
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Magnitude 6 Earthquake Hits Eastern Turkey:


Jakarta, Indonesia, 30,000 people affected by flood:

Savona, Italy, situation serious, flooding and landslide says Celle mayor

Australia flood:

Flooding in Rive-de-Gier, France : images of desolation as the water rises:
Several flood records have been broken in the Loire. The Gier rose 4.79 metres at 10.30 am, surpassing the record for the 2008 flood (4.22 metres).

Red alert for flooding in the Loire: SNCF traffic between Saint-Étienne and Lyon, France will not resume for several days

France, Annonay

Italalia, Ligurie

Current situation due to severe flooding in Tayan Hulu, Sanggau Regency, West Kalimantan, Indonesia:

Heavy rainfall caused extreme flooding last night in Monterrey, Mexico
 

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