Bank failures and the coming Economic collapse

[Ben]

Whenever I try to predict what the economy is going to do I remind myself of what the C's said:

A: The economy of our 3rd density world is entirely manufactured. The forces that control it are both 3rd density and 4th density. There are conflicting opinions in the 3rd density sector right now as to when, where, and how to institute an economic depression. This has been "in the works" for quite some "time" as you measure it. So far, the forces arguing against institution of a collapse have prevailed. How long this condition will be maintained is open to many outcomes. Also, please be aware that the state of the economy is entirely an illusion. In other words, the world economy performs solely based upon what the population is told to believe.

I don't see how we will ever know when such a decision has been reached, until we see the results. The BoE just lowered interest rates for the first time in years, 'inflation' has dropped close to the nominal target. People believe that the economic situation is improving, even though the evidence of their own eyes should suggest otherwise.

I still think an economic collapse (more so than a war, which is harder to get going) is the get out of jail card for the ptb should their hand be revealed in an uncontrolled manner.

 

[axj]

I still think an economic collapse (more so than a war, which is harder to get going) is the get out of jail card for the ptb should their hand be revealed in an uncontrolled manner.

The stock markets are pretty much disconnected from how the real economy is doing. Stock markets are completely manipulated and can go any way they want them to go, just like the C's said.

The thing is that the current debt-based financial system seems to be unsustainable - the US is already paying more for interest on its debt than its exorbitant military budget.

The most likely way they will crash and reset the financial system is through some kind of cyberattack ("cyberpandemic") that will be blamed on Russia, China, Iran or some AI.

And I think that the CBDCs have to be ready to go before they do the crash. The EU plans to have its CBDC ready in 2026, for example.

 

[Miracle]

Just saw this article pop up on SOTT regarding the the lowest sales of cardboard boxes in years indicating that shipped goods are on a steep decline:

Quiet warning: Sliding sales of cardboard boxes set off economic alarm bells for holiday spending season

Nearly every physical good in the modern economy is transported or stored in a corrugated cardboard box. That's why box shipments act as a reliable real-time economic barometer, especially very useful now, as the government shutdown enters day 33...

www.sott.net

Just wanted to back this up and say that the freight industry is also seeing a fairly dramatic reduction in demand:

Is the goods economy in a recession? Freight data suggests so

As someone who's spent decades immersed in the freight and logistics industry, I've learned that freight data often tells the story of the broader economy

www.freightwaves.com

As someone who’s spent decades immersed in the freight and logistics industry, I’ve learned that freight data often tells the story of the broader economy long before traditional indicators catch up. Right now, that data is painting a stark picture: The U.S. economy is entrenched in a goods recession. While consumer spending on services might be holding steady, the movement of physical goods—the lifeblood of manufacturing, retail, and industrial sectors—has ground to a halt. This isn’t speculation; it’s evident in the high-frequency data we track at FreightWaves through our SONAR platform.
...
But 2025 has delivered a gut punch. As the chart clearly shows, freight demand has nosedived again, dropping to levels not seen since the depths of the pandemic. OTVI (Outbound Tender Volume Index, or more simply, demand for trucks) currently sits at around 9,420—far below peak levels and down 18% year-over-year.
...
Why does this matter? Freight is a leading indicator. When trucks stop rolling, it’s because factories aren’t producing, warehouses aren’t filling, and shelves aren’t restocking. The data suggests we’re not just in a slowdown; we’re in a full-blown goods recession that could drag on GDP growth if it persists.

So yeh, the "real economy" indicators are not looking so great right now going into the holiday season

 

[trss]

Hi guys! I think thats here the right thread for this
(thanks to @Ruth)

On monday 2025 11 03 the polish lairvoyan Krzysztof Jackowski saw two or three companies crashing, which he describes as the pillars of the stock market, and they gonna cause the following crash and finance collaps

so let's play & speculate which companys this could be
my guess is
- NVIDIA
- Meta
- Oracle

happy to hear your thoughts, of course even if you have complete other sight


and btw,
first investors starting to short Palantir and NVIDIA

 

[placematt]

Hi guys! I think thats here the right thread for this
(thanks to @Ruth)

On monday 2025 11 03 the polish lairvoyan Krzysztof Jackowski saw two or three companies crashing, which he describes as the pillars of the stock market, and they gonna cause the following crash and finance collaps

so let's play & speculate which companys this could be
my guess is
- NVIDIA
- Meta
- Oracle

happy to hear your thoughts, of course even if you have complete other sight


and btw,
first investors starting to short Palantir and NVIDIA

Hi Trss, Michael Burry of The Big Short fame has hedged against Nvidia and Palantir. For a guy who saw 2008 coming, its interesting that he has hedged some 80% of his portfolio.

REPO markets. Interbank Lending. This harkens back to Covid era bank bailouts that happened under the guise of Covid emergencies. I have linked an article.

a self fulfilling prophecy systemic collapse and pandemic simulation

All this fearmongering continues today, despite the easing of some measures. To understand why, we should return to the economic motif. As noted, several trillions of newly printed cash have been created with a few clicks of a mouse by central banks and injected into financial systems, where they have in great part remained. The aim of the printing-spree was to plug calamitous liquidity gaps. Most of this ‘magic-tree money’ is still frozen inside the shadow banking system, the stock exchanges, and various virtual currency schemes that are not meant to be used for spending and investment. Their function is solely to provide cheap loans for financial speculation. This is what Marx called ‘fictitious capital’, which continues to expand in an orbital loop that is now completely independent of economic cycles on the ground.

He lays out a timeline for the banking trouble that started before the Pandemic was official. The BIS (Bank for Internation settlements) got on the blower and then it cascaded. Basically the liquidity in the system was drying up and covid was the excuse they needed to bail themselves out. It seems to be happening again with the government shutdown.

In short, there is a big problem of liquidity in the financial system. The fact that banks have had to put up collateral for these interbank loans and all manner of things wont be paid back because of the shutdown. Time is ticking, This could indeed set up the big one and if Michael Burry is betting against it. Hold on tight.

 

[KJS]

I'd also add, that (if I recall that correctly), Jackowski was telling about things that will happen before the crash that are currently manifesting:

• "currency laverage crisis" - The October's cryptocurrency market dip liquidated a hefty amount of crazily leveraged trades ($20B in total, but the numbers are probably much higher)
• "cryptocurrencies will lose their steam" - Happening right now, BTC went down from 120k to 100k, the sentiment is bearish as people were expecting bull run (which as always will happen when retail is exhausted)

A lot of people are betting on the AI bubble to pop, so this is highly probable. With such crazy valuations, financial engineering will not hold up long, especially since Nvidia seems to not be "the best of the best". Apart from Chinese, there are domestic players that are far ahead in the technology:

Comparison with NVIDIA H100: The Nvidia H100 GPU accelerator costs approximately $30,000-40,000, making the WSE-3 system roughly 50-100 times more expensive in absolute terms. However, this comparison requires nuance since they represent fundamentally different architectures and scale.

Performance-per-dollar consideration: While the upfront cost is substantially higher, when accounting for performance metrics, a single CS-3 system can replicate the work of GPU clusters requiring dozens to hundreds of devices for certain workloads. For example, a single CS-3 with appropriate external memory can train a 10 trillion parameter model that would require 417 B200 chips arranged across 53 separate DGX systems when using GPU-based approaches.

Power efficiency factor: The CS-3 operates at approximately 23 kilowatts, providing superior power efficiency that reduces operational costs over time compared to much larger GPU clusters that would consume significantly more electricity for equivalent workloads.

Adding to that the whole general purpose AI fiasco, who sane is betting on such slow and outdated general purpose GPU technology? The market actually demands lightning fast inference using small models and their fine-tuning for the task, like "write me a ClickHouse query that generates a report described by the user as ...", "extract products and prices from given text to JSON" or "given the time series below, spot the anomaly in user's heart rate".

 

[KJS]

To add more to the Nvidia-driven craziness:

Startups are using Nvidia's AI GPUs as collateral to secure loans of up to $10 billion from financial institutions​

(...) Fluidstack is a cloud startup company based in London that's just managed to score over $10 billion in funding according to a report by The Information (via WCCFtech). The company was able to leveridge its currently held supply of Nvidia AI GPUs to secure the loan from multiple financers including Macquarie.

This model of putting cards up for collateral Fluidstack is using isn't unique. CoreWeave, a cloud AI service which just received a massive influx of high-powered Nvidia AI Blackwell Ultra racks, was one of the pioneers of this loan structure. It was able to secure up to $9.9 billion dollars by putting its Nvidia H100 AI GPUs against the loan. Supposedly it used some of that cash to secure this new shipment of hardware, which points at a weird cyclical loan arrangement.

Startups are using Nvidia's AI GPUs as collateral to secure loans of up to $10 billion from financial institutions

Even the banks are taking notice of the value of this silicon.

www.pcgamer.com