Civil War in Ukraine: Western Empire vs Russia

[Laura]

I hope that those of you working on keeping this thread up to date are simultaneously posting the best articles on SOTT.

 

[thorbiorn]

According to this source http://video.foxnews.com/v/4074306557001/ukraine-prime-minister-says-there-is-no-cease-fire/?#sp=show-clips PM Yatsenyuk says there is no cease-fire. (I got link from: https://twitter.com/armedresearch )

[..]
For the next few weeks, Mariupol in Ukraine is the most important city in Europe.
[...]
One senior figure tells me: ‘Putin will do what it takes to stop Nato and the EU expanding any further east.’ And one British source familiar with the US position says Barack Obama is under ‘enormous pressure’ from Congress to act, and if Mariupol does fall, his hand will be forced.
[...]

There was an attack on a demonstration in memory of the Maidan revolution in Kharkiv. See video https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2aAXoxfqV-0 and report: http://rt.com/news/234539-blast-kharkov-ukraine-rally/ Apparently an explosive device was thrown from a passing car. Someone took responsibility for the attack on Twitter saying the resistence is alive in Kharkov. It is to be seen how this event will be interpreted and used.

Kiev reports 1500 MIA after Debaltsevo: http://rt.com/news/234519-ukraine-missing-soldiers-army/
Some may have been killed by the barrier squads that help to prevent soldiers from retreating:
http://rt.com/news/226831-ukraine-barrier-troops-donetsk/ Here is an example of video where 24 UAF soldiers were being shot at while giving them selves over. The video shows how they had to be covered by fire from the militia to secure their safe transition: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88ZNcrTVNl8

Some UAF get killed, some hand them selves over, some are captured and are exchanged. Here is one who chose to hand himself over. It happened when he had the opportunity to ambush and kill 5 militias single handed, but at that moment he decided that it was enough, called them over and handed himself in. This is from his press conference:

https://youtu.be/4BOv_KSWRRc?feature=player_detailpage

 

[griffin]

[...] I am less uptimistic about the NATO/EU fascist bureaucrats being undone any time soon, as they are sufficiently supported by a massively misinformed populace. Sure, there are holes in the information fence, but there is a long way to go.

Here's an article at CounterPunch this weekend that clearly outlines the motivations and blatant lies of the US regarding its fascist coup d'etat in Kiev, the subsequent defection of Crimea, the junta's ethnic cleansing of the disaffected regions of Doneskt and Lugansk, and the resulting civil war: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/02/20/defending-ukraine-from-russian-imperialism/ .

The lies are so obvious, but sadly it's unlikely that the American public will ever realize that its country's foreign policy has descended to promoting naked fascism in its pursuit of full spectrum world domination.

 

[Voyageur]

[...]
About torture perpetrated by the UAF there was this:

Torture in Ukrainian: The Red Cross will send to The Hague evidence against the security forces in Kiev
[...]
In addition, representatives of the Red Cross examined the drugs found in possession of Ukrainian security officials captured in Donetsk airport

"There are two varieties, we have made a preliminary chemical analysis, which showed that a military option of fenadola, concentrated, from which a person enters into a state of euphoria, lost an objective view on the environment," - stated Igor Trunov.
The second drug drug appeared similar to heroin. "From the explanation of war prisoniers, it is quite common situation, they say that after taking these drugs sensitivity is completely lost" - summed up the head of the Moscow branch of the ICRC.

The gathered evidence - is the third portion of the documents on violations of international humanitarian law in the Donbas from Ukraine side. These documents will be sent to the ICC in The Hague at the end of the week.

I do not have to many hopes about the ICC in The Hague, look what happened to Milosevic although http://www.sott.net/article/292941-Truth-and-lies-about-the-break-up-of-Yugoslavia-Forget-Milosevic-this-was-a-US-operation-from-start-to-finish

The use of drugs among some on the on the side of the Ukrainian army has been mentioned elsewhere. It was noticed during Maidan, and a doctor from Slavyansk also noticed the sign in one wounded Ukrainian soldier or volunteer he was asked to help in the spring of 2014.

Drug use keeps popping up, although not uncommon in war, it was however mentioned in the documentary on Syria as being noticed in the comatose misfit brutes of ISIS or what ever they are. I wonder if this has ever been delved into more thoroughly as it seems such a constant, a pipeline of psychotic drugs being used to achieve a type of weaponized psychotic numbed down or zombi-soldier (like in Syria); something seems not right with the picture. If it is more prevalent, all pipelines have a source that usually lead to the usual players.

 

[griffin]

Drug use keeps popping up, although not uncommon in war, it was however mentioned in the documentary on Syria as being noticed in the comatose misfit brutes of ISIS or what ever they are. I wonder if this has ever been delved into more thoroughly as it seems such a constant, a pipeline of psychotic drugs being used to achieve a type of weaponized psychotic numbed down or zombi-soldier (like in Syria); something seems not right with the picture. If it is more prevalent, all pipelines have a source that usually lead to the usual players.

The topic of drugs and war is probably worth a whole 'nother thread, separate from this particular one about the civil war in Ukraine. Although I have no special interest in, knowledge of or insight about this topic, I can offer some observations that occur to me, and if people are interested and the moderators want to split this topic off into another thread, it might be interesting.

The use and abuse of drugs in the sad context of human conflict and warfare has an extremely long history. Alcohol has to be top of the list, as drunken bar fights have been common ever since people learned to brew beer and make wine. The use of cannabis is also ancient; the Arabic term "assassin" is derived from the word "hashish". Opium, and later, heroin, also appear in the history of conflict, but more medicinally to ease the pain of the unfortunate wounded and dying. Cocaine and later synthetic amphetamines as well as psychotropic drugs like LSD, mescaline, Ecstasy, and so on, extend the list.

Dave McGowan and others have suggested that the US national security state (that is, the CIA, etc.) deployed LSD and other psychotropic drugs to co-opt, distract, confuse, subborn, diffuse and derail American youth in the 1960s and 1970s, and the circumstantial evidence that they did is persuasive.

There can be no doubt that the US military has researched the use of drugs to enhance the abilities and extend the endurance of warfighters, from infantry soldiers to fighter pilots, and is still doing so.

These comments merely scratch the surface of this topic. It's a very creepy subject, though, and not one I'm interested to investigate, personally, any further. That way lies madness... there be dragons.

 

[thorbiorn]

[...]
These comments merely scratch the surface of this topic. It's a very creepy subject, though, and not one I'm interested to investigate, personally, any further. That way lies madness... there be dragons.

Thank you griffin. What you have said covers the idea quite well.

 

[Alana]

There was an attack on a demonstration in memory of the Maidan revolution in Kharkiv. See video https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2aAXoxfqV-0 and report: http://rt.com/news/234539-blast-kharkov-ukraine-rally/ Apparently an explosive device was thrown from a passing car. Someone took responsibility for the attack on Twitter saying the resistence is alive in Kharkov. It is to be seen how this event will be interpreted and used.
[/quote]

The same old same old way. I was just watching Greek news, where they reported that Kiev blames Russia for the attack, and they already arrested two people that allegedly were trained, and were given the weapons, in Russia.

Here's from UK's Daily mail:

Kiev says blast suspects received weapons, instruction in Russia

Suspects in an explosion that killed two people at a peace rally in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv had received weapons and instruction in Russia, an aide to the head of Ukraine's SBU security service said on Sunday.

Markian Lubkivskyi, an aide to SBU chief Valentyn Nalivaichenko, told 112 Television that four suspects had been detained in the blast. “They are Ukrainian citizens, who underwent instruction and received weapons in the Russian Federation, in Belgorod,” he said, referring to a Russian city across the nearby border.

In Greek news they said they arrested 2 suspects, here they say 4.

 

[angelburst29]

This on U-Tube in reference to the attack in Kharkov.

(Google translate) City Kharkov (North-East Ukraine), occupied Kharkov republic
URGENT STATEMENT OF THE KHARKOV PARTISANS
Phillip Ekoz’yants, representative of the Kharkov partisans


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7O4pxZYuwDs


“This is an urgent statement of the Kharkov partisans. We, Kharkov partisans, leading a guerrilla war against the Kiev junta on the territory of Kharkov and Kharkov region, haven’t had hand in an explosion during a march of the ATO supporters on the 22nd of February, 2015. We, Kharkov partisans, didn’t plan and don’t plan to arrange our actions in places crowded with peaceful civilians regardless of their political views. We think that many ordinary Ukrainians are fooled by the mass media of the Kiev junta. And as we’ve stated many times, we will not put their lives at risk.

‘Moreover, we have reliable information that the column of peaceful participants was blown up by order of Avakov [present minister of internal affairs of Kiev junta] in order to launch an anti-terrorist operation in the Kharkov region.

“Residents of Kharkov!

“One year ago, monsters, sadists and murderers came to power in Ukraine, which offer ordinary Ukrainian people in sacrifice in order to achieve their aims. And we all are simply like coins to exchange in their dreadful game. We will win. This was the urgent statement of the Kharkov partisans.”

 

[thorbiorn]

It appears DNR and LNR are getting the Gaza treatment:

Economic Blockade in Southeastern Ukraine Keeps Increasing - DPR Official
17:43 23.02.2015(updated 18:02 23.02.2015)
[...]
DONETSK (Sputnik) —The economic blockade of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) is not only ongoing but has intensified, DPR negotiator at Ukraine peace talks Denis Pushilin said Monday.

"We can say that the [economic] blockade has increased. This contradicts the package of measures signed in Minsk," Pushilin told RIA Novosti.

He added that the economic blockade in the region is causing grave concerns, as the "shops are emptying very quickly."
[...]

And no chance to buy anything in Ukraine and take it accross the border, unless you wish to do it illegally.

Ukraine completely blocks entry to country’s east — DPR official
February 23, 14:25 UTC+3
[..]
"Ukraine has completely blocked the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. No one can leave without a pass," Andrey Purgin told Rossiya-24 television news channel, noting that even with a pass people are not allowed to leave eastern territories.
[...]

After a signed cease-fire agreement, what can behind this turn of events?

Emergency Measures to Build Totalitarian State
Alexander DONETSKY | 23.02.2015 | 11:34

It took 16 hours of hard work to reach and sign the February 12 Minsk agreement on Ukraine. Five days later the 13-point accord was endorsed by the United Nations Security Council. On February 20, Ukrainian President Poroshenko signed a decree on the introduction of the National Security Council decision of 25 January «On emergency measures against the Russian threat and terrorist attack, supported by the Russian Federation».

The classified provisions of the document prevent from coming up with a detailed assessment of what the Kiev regime is going to do. No matter that, the part of the document which is open to public makes possible to trace the evolution of political regime in Ukraine.

Kiev has toughened the police control over the compliance with the order of registration of the place of living and the place of residence of Ukrainian citizens, foreigners and stateless persons in big cities, including the capital. The media censorship is going to be toughened. It was introduced on February 22 last year right after the coup to be called «a moratorium on criticism of government.» Practically all Russian TV channels are banned on Ukrainian soil. The Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council is to take additional measures to prevent «unsanctioned» infiltration of information coming from Russia. It is done in violation of Annex 1 (Article 5) of the United Nations Security Council’s Resolution 2022, (the «Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements») which says «Ensure pardon and amnesty by enacting the law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.» The National Security and Defence Council offers the Prosecutor General of Ukraine «to take steps on the recognition of the so called «DPR» and «LPR» as terrorist organisations.» Instead of introducing laws to prevent persecutions, the President instructs to persecute opponents – the Ukraine’s partners at the Minsk talks – not in Ukraine only but also across the world.

The presidential decree calls for toughening the economic blockade of the territories under the anti-government self-defence forces’ control, in particular it orders the implementation of measures to stop deals on the electrical energy market with the plants that produce electrical energy in Novorossia. This provision is in strict violation of Article 8 of the Annex I, which envisions «Definition of modalities of full resumption of socioeconomic ties, including social transfers such as pension payments and other payments (incomes and revenues, timely payments of all utility bills, reinstating taxation within the legal framework of Ukraine).»

There have been multiple violations of signed accords on the part of Ukraine pretty soon after they were reached, sometimes in a few hours. That’s what happened after reaching the accords on gas deals and proclaimed cease-fires in the area of conflict, as well as after the «Normandy format» talks in June 2014.

There have been leaks on the classified provisions of the document. Two Ukrainian news websites posted publications informing about the January 25 meeting of the National Security and Defence Council. In a few minutes they were deleted as a result of censorship but copies were posted to social networks. It has become known that tougher measures against the «fifth column» to include anyone whose opinion differs from the one of the government were part of the meeting’s agenda. Total control over Internet, cable TV and press is under consideration, as well as the steps to repress the citizens spreading around «antigovernment» information up to physical elimination of «state enemies.»

The «emergency measures to counter the Russian threat» started to be implemented right after the presidential February 20 decree was signed. The next day the Ukraine's Security Service recommended to strip 115 Russian news outlets of accreditation at state power bodies in Ukraine. Actually they are strictly banned from highlighting what happens in the country. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin called this decision absurd and absolutely ungrounded. Ukrainian MP Victoria Siumar has many times demanded Russian TV channels and films banned. This encroachment on freedom of speech was explained by the fact that Ukrainian journalists asked to pay attention to the fact that Russian reporters were actually involved in propaganda efforts, for instance, they allegedly recorded Ukrainian politicians to temper with or alter the recorded materials afterwards and thus distort the information. The absurdity mentioned by Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Karasin is added by the fact that Victoria Siumar heads the Committee on Freedom of Speech and Information Policy.

Ukraine has become closer to becoming a repressive police state which has been clamping down on freedom of speech since the time of last year’s coup. Today it can be said that the process is finished. A totalitarian model to control the country’s life is about to come in full swing.

That the EU/US etc can support Kiev, shows a lot about their own colours, but then haven't they showed them before?

 

[thorbiorn]

There have been a number of good analysis about Ukraine. This following compares the strengths and weaknesses of Yanukovych and the present regime.

Ukraine One Year After Maidan: Analysis
2/23/2015
Before and After Maidan
By Dmitriy Korotkov

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

“Chase out the band!” was the main slogan of the uprising that took place exactly a year ago. The Maidan promised a traditional revolutionary transformation of the very foundations of the state. Though it’s not important what the Maidan promised. It’s important what it delivered. Especially in comparison with that which was destroyed.

1. The Government
In spite of the numerous accusations of “dictatorship” and “authoritarianism,” Yanukovych’s government was weaker than the current one. Any political regime is stable only when it has unconditional support of a significant social or national group. In contrast to Putin or Lukashenko, Yanukovych did not have that level of support. He got the votes of the South-East because he was “their own,” or because he was the lesser evil in comparison with the pro-Western politicians, but nobody was enthusiastic about him. Yanukovych was able to balance the business ambitions of his Family, of various oligarch clans, the West, and Russia, but by the end of 2013 it ran out of the room for maneuver and it faced a severe crisis. It could only be resolved by capitulation or a violent crack-down. Yanukovych chose neither, but instead simply ran.

But even when the regime was in bloom, Yanukovych’s “dictatorship” was fiction because of his lack of reliable support. Moreover, having to confirm its legitimacy in the eyes of the West, the regime had roped itself in, and the fear of a new Maidan forced it to avoid social reforms or attempts to limit democracy.

The current government, with all of its outward weakness, is far more stable. First of all, it has the support of the passionate part of society, whose position always matters more than the position of the passive majority. So the passive majority does not want to go fight? So what, if the majority of journalists, activists, and other engaged people want the war to continue. They feel that as long as there is a war, it’s best not to pick on the government, while the passive majority will get its draft notices and will go to fight irrespective of its wishes. Secondly, the government does not need to establish its legitimacy vis-à-vis the West: US and EU governments which facilitated its seizure now have to turn a blind eye on the repressive measures it undertakes to strengthen its position. No matter what harsh measures the Poroshenko-Yatsenyuk-Turchinov trio adopt to preserve their power, nobody doubts that the passionate part of society will support them, and the West will ignore any turning of the screws, even though they’d not have forgiven Yanukovych for far lesser infractions.

Therefore the government can get away with anything as long as it has those two pillars of support. But it will be dealt with far more harshly than Yanukovych was should it lose those pillars. For example, due to the military defeats on the front, the economic collapse, or other events that will undermine the patience of not only the society, but the committed factions and the power structures.

2. Opposition
There is a widespread opinion that under Yanukovych the opposition was strong, and now it is weak. This is half-true. The opposition was weak, and it played behind-the-scenes games. What made it strong was Yanukovych’s weakness, and the support by the West and the committed factions of society. The alliance of these forces was sufficient to deter the government.

As far as the current opposition is concerned, it simply doesn’t exist. The “opposition bloc” and other such splinters are not opposition but the former government which became unused to being in opposition, and which are only trying to find a place themselves in a new reality. The votes the Opposition Bloc received were in fact votes cast against the current government, in the hopes that a new political force will appear that will present an alternative to the current regime.

However, no such alternative can appear under conditions where any protest can be framed as “separatism” or “Moscow provocation.” Therefore a strong opposition can appear only under two conditions. First, if it appears within the elite (for example, in the event of a schism between Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko, or if Sadovoy [of the Self-Help Party, based in Lvov] begins to play an independent game). Second, if the government (possibly due to schisms) weakens to such an extent that big business which is unhappy with the state of affairs, will create its own opposition bloc on the basis of the Opposition Block, and which will be based in the south-eastern regions. To be sure, this would require the war to end. Otherwise any attempts to create an opposition will be thwarted using “the laws of wartime.” Nevertheless, there is a great deal of antagonism between the government and much of the society, and this antagonism is growing stronger as the situation in the country grows worse. As a minimum, one can identify four big dissatisfied groupings. The first are the oligarchs and many small and medium entrepreneurs whose businesses are collapsing due to the war, the loss of economic ties to Russia, and government policies which reduce spending without cracking down on corruption. The second is a sizable proportion of the population of the south-east which will never accept the Maidan, the war, or the government’s ideology. The third are the disappointed supporters of the Maidan The fourth is the legal system and the representatives of the security/enforcement agencies (MVD, prosecutor’s office, SBU, some of the cadre officers of the regular UAF), which are skeptical of the Maidan, unhappy with the government and its personnel policy, and which suffer casualties in combat due to inept leadership. One can theoretically form genuine opposition under the two conditions listed above.

3. Ideology

The ideology or lack thereof have always been one of the main factors determining the strength or weakness of the government. Yanukovych’s weakness lie in its absence. True, some of its representatives, with Dmitriy Tabachnik at the forefront, tried to create the only possible reliable pillar of support for the regime in the shape of the committed segment of south-east. They tried to convince the president to confirm the post-Soviet ideological markets, but received neither understanding nor support from the president. The current government adopted a nationalist ideology with an anti-Russian idea at its core (which, incidentally, Russia facilitated through its seizure of Crimea). The country is experiencing the destruction of Soviet values, the elimination of Russia’s influence (the ban on Russian TV channels and movies), with the parallel installation (though still mainly through words, not deeds) of the nationalist ideology. All of it is supposed to preserve the regime’s pillars of support in Western and Central Ukraine, and also to spread the influence of this ideology on southern and eastern parts of the country.

The latter part so far has not gone well. The split within the country not only did not disappear, but it has grown worse due to the differences in attitudes toward the government, the war, Russia, and other factors. The South-East is laying low because it does not see the prospects for success in active struggle. But the calm may be temporary (see point 2).

4. Freedom of Speech

In its attempts to strengthen itself and to establish ideological dominance, the government is forced to actively suppress the freedom of speech. One has to acknowledge Yanukovych also showed similar tendencies, but during his rule the media remained outside of his control, and was dependent either on the oligarchs or on the West which supported opposition media. As a result the most that the government could do is to obtain the loyalty of the oligarch media and to marginalize the opposition media. But the media’s position during the Maidan shows that Yanukovych’s system of media control was an illusion.

Now the space for opposition media in Ukraine is very narrow. Any, even marginal, media site that tries to publish even a small fraction of criticism that official media published about Yanukovych will get demolished by the “activists”, and on the next day it will be shut down and repressed “for treason.”

Oligarch media continue to exist, and the oligarchs are trying to preserve their relative independence. But even they have been chased into certain ideological limits, which force them to adhere to the pro-government line on most key issues, leaving only a small window for criticism of individual members of the government. But even that window may soon close, judging by the trends.

5. Social Policies

When it comes to intentions, the past and current regimes were identical. In terms of deeds, there is a chasm separating them.

The Yanukovych team tried in 2010-11 to push threw a number of liberal and anti-social reforms which were dictated either by the IMF or by objective reality (the over-burdening of state budget). But the only measures that were implemented were the increase of women’s retirement age from 55 to 60 years and the one-time increase in the price of gas and utility payments in 2010. Attempts to reduce the benefits to Chernobyl veterans, Afghanistan veterans, war orphans, or the efforts to change the tax system under which the majority of population pays no taxes only caused “little Maidans” and forced the shut-down of reforms. By the end of 2013 Yanukovych abandoned all attempts to reduce the welfare state, and turned his attention to closing the budget gap through agreements with Russia (credits and cheap gas), and to increase the tax burden on the oligarchs, which ultimately caused his downfall.

The current regime has no limiting factors in its anti-social policies. In spite of a three-fold devaluation of the hryvnya and the reduction in the standard of living, the government increased the price of gas and utilities in 2014, will continue the process in 2015, and has no plans to stop the process. The government abdicated most of its social obligations in one fell swoop. It reduced salaries of most state employees and social payments from the state budget, while at the same time it froze pensions. They are not doing it because they heartless, but it’s the consequence of the foreign and domestic policy orientation (West, IMF, war) that it adopted by choice or by necessity.

6. Foreign Policy

Yanukovych pursued a “multi-vector” foreign policy which it inherited from the times of Leonid Kuchma. The former president tried to balance pro-Russian and pro-Western policies, struggling to delay the moment of choice. By 2013 everyone knew that the time to choose had come, and Yanukovych made that choice in favor of the pro-Russian course over the pro-European one, which was unexpected to many.

This choice was forced mainly by internal factors: the refusal to adopt anti-social reforms and the need to close the budget gap with cheap energy, and also the desire to reintegrate the industry into the post-Soviet space. However, Yanukovych proved unable to defend that choice and found himself in exile.

The new government was doomed, by its own slogans and obligations, to take a pro-Western course, therefore it got that which Yanukovych tried to avoid: harsh anti-social conditions from the IMF, and the political-economic conflict with Russia. Even though there are no signs suggesting Ukraine’s social-economic situation will improve, the current government cannot abandon its course.

7. Corruption

Any citizen coming with contact with government agencies knows perfectly well that corruption has not grown less prevalent over the last year. But it changed its appearance.

Yanukovych spent the four years in power on building a vertical system, in which only the people at the top steal, while the lower levels get a percentage. With the fall of Yanukovych corruption returned to the state it was in prior to 2010: every official takes as much as he wants and decides whether to share the loot with superiors. The current government declares its desire to fight corruption and is even creating a special agency, but it has even fewer chances to defeat it than Yanukovych. Especially since the freeze or reduction of state salaries and the constant personnel reshuffling cause even low-level officials to try to steal as much as possible before they are fired as a result of yet another wave of “lustration”, purge, or other revolutionary happenings. Incidentally, the senior leadership is not far behind (because its members change often, plus you have to pay those who appointed you). The Federation of Employers estimates that since the Maidan, government officials stole 100 billion hryvnya. When the economy is collapsing corruption is one of the measures where one can count on a big return on investment, therefore everyone who can resort to it, does.

8. The Legal System

In the last four years the legal system experienced the same changes as corruption: an inexorable drift toward centralization, in an effort to establish a system in which only the president’s office has influence on affairs. But the destruction of the old system means that the courts have for the first time received a high degree of autonomy. However, that in no way pleases the government or Maidan activists. The legal activists is facing constant accusations from the radicals, SBU, and Prosecutor’s Office. The Rada is considering a law that would restore the right to control judges to the president. But none of these levers are effective yet. Therefore courts sometime make rulings which are inconvenient to the government, which could not be imagined in the last years of Yanukovych’s rule.

Previously I have written about Dmitry Yarosh and Semenchenko and that they founded a volunteer command HQ. But, that initiative has been closed down by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the National Guard. It seems Poroshenko and allies are holding on for the moment.

 

[thorbiorn]

There is an article written by a Polish analyst and posted on New Eastern Outlook

23.02.2015 Author: Konrad Stachnio
Can Ukraine exist without UPA and SS ‘heroes’?

The author gives a lot of history about the roots of Ukraine nationalism, what this meant for the Poles during WWII, and what the present implications are. It isn't pretty at all. Though it is possible his points about the front Right Sector people actually getting into power may be too pessimistic, what is gained if their policies are carried out nevertheless, as it seems from what I posted earlier today about the law signed by Poroshenko on February 20.


An article which focuses on the role of China concludes:

[...]at the moment US (and European) policy is pushing Russia into China’s arms. This, we would argue, is a geopolitical mistake. If the US-Russia rift is not healed, it is China that will be the winner.

Well, that is possible.

 

[thorbiorn]

Some time ago, I found a video with an astrological interpretation of the moment the ATO operation against Eastern Ukraine began on April 14th 2014. Yesterday, I also found a text with the content of the video and with the help of a translation machine this is what came out:

What do the stars tell about the war in Ukraine?
on the 28th of January 2015 11:47

[..]
In this story the founder of the cultural center "the Royal way" esoteric Andrew Dondukov tell in what position were the astrological planet at the start of the Anti-terrorist operation (ATO) in Ukraine. Could this operation to succeed?

Edit: If you wish to see the latest news from Eastern Ukraine, there is a 3 minute version https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_profilepage&v=jWQNMlGp51I
Andrew Dondukov: If we take as starting point the beginning of the war April 14, 2014, the situation from the perspective of astrology is very simple, I can now clearly say, because, I'm not going no special terms to use, let's just, Yes, human language these characters, so to speak, the sacred signs translate, it's a complete failure, the starting point was a complete failure, the complete destruction of the one who starts. That is, you just have to manage to choose such a day, which is most unfortunate for the outbreak of hostilities. It is favorable for peace and not for war, it is favorable to start trade relations, but not for aggression. Anti-terrorist operation was started the day before the full lunar Eclipse, all the planets are in complete disharmony, imbalance, that is absolutely a losing option, it promises a loss, he promises no luck, promises the impossibility of reconciliation and worsening of aggression.

The only thing here is, like, so to say, there are no hopeless situations, only here in this situation can have women, Ukrainian women, constructive, reasonable, they can, as far as possible, to neutralize this bitterness, this horror, this loss of the Ukrainian people, because he's just programmed. To begin at this time, it's just a dead end. For enabling determination of the beginning of hostilities, need surgery on the position of the planet Mars, because it is the astrological planet of war. At the moment Mars is in exile, that is in Libra, in opposition to his house, Aries. This is already the starting point is very unfavorable.
In the beginning of the war, Mars was in opposition to mercury, this suggests that the inability to extract profitable, profit, wealth from the war, that is a dead end, there is a disadvantage, economic disadvantage. Jupiter was in opposition Pluto, this suggests that military action will fail and will lead to great loss of life. Mars was squaring Jupiter, it once again confirms that the failure in hostilities. Jupiter was in squaring mercury, this suggests that there are opportunities to attract allies in this company. Mercury was squaring Pluto, again confirming that the case disastrous, and very difficult to reach, so to speak, in a peaceful situation.

Pluto was squaring Mars, this indicates a total loss and defeat. This also happened the day before the full lunar Eclipse, this 14th lunar day, the beginning of hostilities, and, accordingly, the full moon, it is three days, 14, 15, 16, and, in fact, already the 14th lunar day, he has already used it as the beginning of a full moon. It's a dead end, this is a complete loss and destruction, there's, well, simply, I recently looked just was very surprised how people are so crazy when they start. Well, however, if this two options, it can be realized, then we know who is behind those who begin military action at this time, it may be unconsciously, then we understand what karma motivates people, i.e. black karma, if it is unconscious. Each investigation has its own cause, in this case, if unconsciously, it is the result of bad karma, you want to redeem, in this case this is the atonement for these sins, Yes, the atonement of sins.

All in all a bad day for Kiev. Allies like the EU, Israel, the US, and Canada mainly may aid, but the overall trend is destruction. What can help to aleviate the situation, the card reader claims, is the influence of Ukrainian women. I have already written about the role of women in the efforts to rein in the conflict. Nevertheless, for knowers of Russian, and maybe for Russian Sott I add a couple of more links.

First there is an administrator from the University of Donetsk, who is interviewed by Ukrainian journalists. The people are in a room in which windows or whatever are walled up with what may be bags of sand. This woman puts forth argument after argument against the Kiev oppression.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/xl0Qu4riCt8 The video has 94000+ views at the moement and is about 8 minutes long

Next is an interview done in Donetsk with a pensioneer from the Debaltsevo area who fled the shelling in early February. https://www.youtube.com/embed/M9-AMosquMk It is about 30 minutes long and has at the moment 57000+ views. The old lady is well informed about the politics of the country, and has much to say about the whole situation, as she has observed it.

 

[angelburst29]

With everything going on in Ukraine, it might be equally important, to watch the moves of NATO and the creation of its new ultra-rapid-reaction force, designed as a deterrent to Russia. The build up of NATO forces by it's alliance members and strategic agenda's might be the impetus "that crosses the line" and forces Putin to defend himself and Russia?


NATO's priority in 2015: Setting up reaction force in Europe
http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/pentagon/2015/01/06/nato-reaction-force/21324499/

The multinational force, often called the "spearhead," was ordered into existence by President Obama and other NATO leaders in September so it could be deployed to reinforce alliance members feeling threatened by the actions or ambitions of Vladimir Putin's Russia.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has called the new force and other components of the reboot of alliance capabilities "the biggest reinforcement of our collective defense since the end of the Cold War."

With NATO officially out of combat operations in Afghanistan as of Jan. 1, the alliance's agenda is expected to be dominated by the new strategic realities in Europe conjured up by Moscow's annexation of Crimea and alleged proxy war in eastern Ukraine, and what the West should do in response.

"NATO's biggest challenge in 2015 will be focusing on and advancing its core mission — ensuring the security of the alliance's members and promoting stability in Europe,"

"This will be a challenge because the alliance's leaders have taken collective defense for granted for many years, because Russia has developed an array of unconventional tactics that will require new and unconventional responses, and because NATO will continue to be involved in training activities in Afghanistan," Brown said.

In reaction to Moscow's actions, Obama and the other NATO leaders approved a Readiness Action Plan to upgrade alliance capabilities, and 2015 "will be about making it more concrete and visible for Russia," said Marcin Terlikowski, head of the European Security and Defense Economics project at the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw.

"The main task will be to decide what this force will be, where it will be based, and how it will be commanded," Terlikowski said. "It's also about money."

It is unclear who will pay for the force, said Bruno Lete, senior program officer for foreign and security policy at the German Marshall Fund, a Brussels-based think tank.

Many are hoping the Americans will foot much of the bill, while others are looking to Germany, NATO's wealthiest and most populous member in Europe, Lete said.

It is vital for NATO cohesiveness that as many members as possible contribute to payments, he said, or "the plan will lose its legitimacy."

In 2015, decisions are also expected that would continue the rotation of U.S. and other allies' air, land and naval forces to maintain a non-stop heightened profile in the NATO member countries closest to Russia. On New Year's Day, NATO officials said, the Italian Air Force, flying four Eurofighter jets, took over from the Portuguese in executing one of those operations, the Baltic Air Policing mission in the skies over Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

In the coming year, the go-ahead should also be given by NATO governments to stockpile fuel, ammunition and other supplies and equipment in the frontline countries for use by the rapid reaction force if needed, Terlikowski and other analysts said.

To signal its resolve to come to defend its members in Eastern and Central Europe, NATO conducted more than 200 military exercises in 2014, and the member countries are expected to decide to maintain that pace.

"Russia has to see that NATO is resolved to defend its values," Terlikowski said. "And the core value of NATO is solidarity: attack one member, and the whole alliance, including the U.S., will respond."

Some parameters of what's been officially named the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force are already known. Stoltenberg has said the prototype to be formed in 2015 will have a ground component of several thousand troops largely contributed by Germany, Norway and the Netherlands.

Poland, NATO's most important member in the former Soviet bloc, expects to host some of the new force's command and control elements, including at the existing Multinational Corps Northeast headquarters in the western city of Szczecin.

For Stoltenberg, trying to coax alliance members in 2015 into spending more on defense in general will predictably be another core task. In September, the national leaders committed to spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, but gave themselves 10 years to meet the target. For decades, Washington has complained that too many Europeans are not shouldering their fair share of the burden for trans-Atlantic security.

 

[thorbiorn]

With everything going on in Ukraine, it might be equally important, to watch the moves of NATO and the creation of its new ultra-rapid-reaction force, designed as a deterrent to Russia. The build up of NATO forces by it's alliance members and strategic agenda's might be the impetus "that crosses the line" and forces Putin to defend himself and Russia?


NATO's priority in 2015: Setting up reaction force in Europe
http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/pentagon/2015/01/06/nato-reaction-force/21324499/
[...]
"Russia has to see that NATO is resolved to defend its values," Terlikowski said. "And the core value of NATO is solidarity: attack one member, and the whole alliance, including the U.S., will respond."
[...]
For Stoltenberg, trying to coax alliance members in 2015 into spending more on defense in general will predictably be another core task. In September, the national leaders committed to spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, but gave themselves 10 years to meet the target. For decades, Washington has complained that too many Europeans are not shouldering their fair share of the burden for trans-Atlantic security.

NATO has very little to offer the security of Europe. And with the military agreement between Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, Ukraine has been even tighter aligned with NATO. At the same time Russia has said:

US arming Kiev would ‘explode’ situation in E. Ukraine – Russian Foreign Ministry
Published time: February 24, 2015 06:19
If the US were to supply Ukraine with ammunition and weapons, it would “explode the whole situation” in eastern Ukraine and Russia would be forced to respond “appropriately,” Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said.

“It would be a major blow to the Minsk agreements and would explode the whole situation,” TASS quoted Ryabkov as saying.

Moscow would not be able to remain indifferent “to such provocative actions,” he added. “We’ll have to respond appropriately.”

“Is that necessary for those who are allegedly calling for the normalization of the situation in Ukraine? I have serious doubts. People may be irresponsible in their actions, but there must be an end to this madness [of] indulging Kiev’s warmongering,” explained Ryabkov.

The deputy foreign minister's statement follows a renewed call by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko for the US to arm Kiev forces. Poroshenko made the most recent comments during a conversation with US Vice President Joe Biden.

What to say, except that I can't help thinking that watching a few videos about the suffering in Donbass, and how people deal with it in their daily lives, whether children, people of working age or pensioneers is not only a matter of staying informed about the political details, but also a matter of learning from these suffering people how to deal with adversity - if and more likely when it comes. Ukraine is a show case of the disintegration of civil society.

 

[Aeneas]

Thanks Thorbiorn for the postings. I think we should make a sott post about the children. It needs telling. What do you think or is somebody already on to it?

I saw this article that says that the Ukrainian are pulling out the old artillery pieces from the late 40'ies and restoring them. They obviously have lost a lot of equipment, but even restoring old antic artillery pieces is unlikely to change much, especially if military strategy and command remain the same.

The article is here: http://fortruss.blogspot.fr/2015/02/uafs-looming-artillery-shortage.html

UAF's Looming Artillery Shortage

2/23/2015

Ukraine is taking Soviet-era D-48 85mm anti-tank guns from mothballs

By Evgenuss

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

The D-48 was developed in the late 1940s and officially adopted in 1953. Series production continued between 1953 and 1957, with a total of 819 guns manufactured.

The reason these guns are being taken out of mothballs is the difficult equipment situation of the UAF. The Ukrainian MOD has to take such measures due to the lack of money and the presence of large stores of old equipment.

The weapons are being restored at the factory in Rovno, which also repairs other types of artillery.

The D-48s are needed to bypass the Minsk Agreement and to furnish newly formed UAF units with artillery. The older units have Akatsia and Gozdika [152mm and 122mm SP howitzers], and Rapira 100mm AT guns, but there may not be enough of them left.

J.Hawk’s Comment: It’s not clear at all how these guns would bypass the Minsk Agreement, unless it contained a provision concerning caliber of weapons affected. However, the shortage of weapons and equipment is undeniable. Many were destroyed and captured, and the wear-and-tear from ordinary usage cannot be ignored either. The units in question are the motorized brigades that are being formed out of the mobilizees of the 4th wave that started in January. Even assuming they will receive some “leavening” of veterans from other units, these will be very “raw” formations of far lower fighting power than the UAF brigades of the summer of 2014 or January 2015, in large part due to the shortages of modern heavy weapons and armored vehicles. Should the junta attempt another military campaign, it will be in an even worse position relative to the Novorossia Armed Forces than in the January Campaign. And then...

So this old military equipment is destined for the recruits of the 4th wave of mobilisation. One can truly talk of being called up to serve as cannonfodder. They stand no fighting chance against all the far superior military hardware that Novorussia got as trophies from the Ukrainian army.