JGeropoulas
The Living Force
Re: Session 14 October 2017
_http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/
The article excerpted below, "America's Real Criminal Element," discusses studies showing that the increase (or decrease) of a common environmental molecule is linked to the increase (or decrease) in crime rates.c.a. said:Everyone needs to read Adrian Raine's book "The Anatomy of Violence". It's about much more than just that. Indeed, conditioning and external environment CAN CHANGE THE HARDWARE!!!
Biological Roots of Crime with Adrian Raine (1:24:30)
SaintScholastica Published on Nov 13, 2015
...
Experts often suggest that crime resembles an epidemic. But what kind? Karl Smith, a professor of public economics and government at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, has a good rule of thumb for categorizing epidemics:
If it spreads along lines of communication, he says, the cause is information. Think Bieber Fever.
If it travels along major transportation routes, the cause is microbial. Think influenza.
If it spreads out like a fan, the cause is an insect. Think malaria.
But if it’s everywhere, all at once—as the ’60- ’70s rise of crime—the cause is a molecule.
But which molecule?
The biggest source of lead in the postwar era, it turns out, wasn’t paint. It was leaded gasoline. And if you chart the rise and fall of atmospheric lead caused by the rise and fall of leaded gasoline consumption, you get a pretty simple upside-down U: Lead emissions from tailpipes rose steadily from the early ’40s through the early ’70s, nearly quadrupling over that period.
Then, as unleaded gasoline began to replace leaded gasoline, emissions plummeted. Intriguingly, violent crime rates followed the same upside-down U pattern. The only thing different was the time period: Crime rates rose dramatically in the ’60s through the ’80s, and then began dropping steadily starting in the early ’90s. The two curves looked eerily identical, but were offset by about 20 years.
So Nevin dove in further, digging up detailed data on lead emissions and crime rates to see if the similarity of the curves was as good as it seemed. It turned out to be even better: In a 2000 paper he concluded that if you add a lag time of 23 years, lead emissions from automobiles explain 90 percent of the variation in violent crime in America.
And with that we have our molecule: tetraethyl lead, the gasoline additive invented by General Motors in the 1920s to prevent knocking and pinging in high-performance engines. As auto sales boomed after World War II, and drivers in powerful new cars increasingly asked service station attendants to “fill ‘er up with ethyl,” they were unwittingly creating a crime wave two decades later.
So no matter how good the fit, if you only have a single correlation it might just be a coincidence. You need to do something more to establish causality.
[But after 20 years of research] We now have studies at the international level, the national level, the state level, the city level, and even the individual level. Groups of children have been followed from the womb to adulthood, and higher childhood blood lead levels are consistently associated with higher adult arrest rates for violent crimes. All of these studies tell the same story: Gasoline lead is responsible for a good share of the rise and fall of violent crime over the past half century.
_http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/