Here's a pile of links I have been collecting, since the coronavirus information in this thread is just so colossal that I find it hard to search and find certain things. Anyway:
How to understand the coronavirus death toll
But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus. Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales - factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure is around 600,000. The coronavirus deaths will not be in addition to these, as statistician Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, explains. "There will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period."
99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.
Coronavirus Death Rate in Wuhan Is Lower than Previously Thought, Study Finds
An inside look at the debate around pandemic bonds, which have $425 million hinging on how deadly the coronavirus ends up being | Markets Insider
Do you think some of these banks betting on pandemic bonds own newspapers?
Israeli virologist urges world leaders to calm public, slams ‘unnecessary panic’
leading Israeli virologist on Sunday urged world leaders to calm their citizens about the coronavirus pandemic, saying people were being whipped into unnecessary panic. Prof. Jihad Bishara, the director of the Infectious Disease Unit at Petah Tikva’s Beilinson Hospital, said that some of the steps being taken in Israel and abroad were very important, but the virus is not airborne, most people who are infected will recover without even knowing they were sick, the at-risk groups are now known, and the global panic is unnecessary and exaggerated. “I’ve been in this business for 30 years,” Bishara said in a Channel 12 interview. “I’ve been through MERS, SARS, Ebola, the first Gulf war and the second, and I don’t recall anything like this. There’s unnecessary, exaggerated panic. We have to calm people down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI
Normally 7 to 15% of all flu and acute respiratory infections are caused by a coronavirus. The test for the novel coronavirus is NOT validated, meaning people don't know if it's actually doing what it's intended to do (distinguish the novel coronavirus from other strains or even other viruses.
More Good News from 2 Additional Stanford Professors | TexAgs
"Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professors of medicine at Stanford, conclude the current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. They point to the significant "denominator problem" often discussed here by those who are familiar with advanced modeling.
...
Next, the northeastern Italian town of V, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of V were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That's more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy's case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.
...
An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that's a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism."
List of interviews of medical experts taking issue with the overblown estimations of mortality
One of those interviewed expands here:
Coronavirus lockdown “useless, grotesque, collective suicide” – World-renowned virologist
How lethal is Covid-19 REALLY? Why massive fatality rates from Italy are MISLEADING
"But the larger number, the confirmed cases, must by definition be an underestimate. It would be impossible for every person in a country positive for the coronavirus to have been already tested and added to the confirmed cases. The virus can be dormant in people for up to two weeks, and young people can experience very mild or even no symptoms at all, and still be positive for the virus. Since that figure is by definition too low, the mortality rates being reported are by definition too high.
Another factor is that governments are being pushed well beyond their capabilities for mass testing and contact tracing, some more than others. With typical efficiency, Germany is on top of their testing situation, and as such have picked up many milder cases. Therefore they have a high number of confirmed cases relative to the true number of infected people in Germany.
This is keeping the mortality rate in Germany down at 0.5 percent, baffling experts who are expecting apocalyptic scenes at the hospitals, the likes of which have so far only materialized in Italy. Perhaps the cases will soon mount up in Germany, and their mortality rate will climb toward the four or five percent that seems to be the European average. But due to the asymptomatic people (a majority according to the best research) even that is an exaggeratedly high rate."
https://www.westernjournal.com/harv...ity-rate-far-lower-world-health-org-suggests/
Older patients, defined in the paper, had an estimated 2.7 percent risk of dying from COVID-19. For those who were between the ages of 15 and 64, estimated risk of death was only 0.5 percent. For those ages 15-44, low and high estimates were 0.1 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively; those ages 45-64 had estimates of between 0.2 percent and 1.1 percent.
https://theduran.com/ben-swann-drops-bombshell-seasonal-flu-twice-as-deadly-as-coronavirus/
WHO projects a morality rate of 3.4% vs the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. But this is apples and oranges. The problem with this comparison is that WHO uses confirmed cases of Covid-19 as the denominator, whereas the flu mortality rate is calculated using estimated cases. When you calculate the flu virus' morality rate using confirmed cases (same method as coronavirus) the death rate climbs to 10% for the United States. So if you calculate flu mortality the same way you do for coronavirus, you get an extremely high morality rate. But when was the last time we've gone to mass lockdowns and shutdowns over the yearly flu epidemic?
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/fe...-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms.html
According to a study in Iceland fully half of carriers of coronavirus are symptomatic, giving credence to the speculation that the actual mortality rate of coronavirus a fraction of what is calculated using confirmed cases only.
Corroboration on the low mortality rate:
https://www.anti-empire.com/america...e-just-a-bad-flu-with-a-fatality-rate-of-0-1/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2“ (This 0.1% matches the flu mortality rate when using estimated cases that include asymptomatic spread).
Oxford Model: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms. If her work is accurate, that would likely mean a large swath of the population has built up resistance to the virus. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
Links on some of the causes of Italy's statistics
https://www.anti-empire.com/italys-...ecipe-for-disaster-has-made-the-crisis-worse/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
From the latter: “It’s too early to make a comparison across Europe,” he says. “We do not have detailed sero-surveillance of the population and we do not know how many asymptomatic people are spreading it.” Once again it's the issue of the denominator, as well as an inflated numerator due to the medical system not being sufficiently specific about the actual cause of death - if someone who died tests positive for coronavirus their statistics ASSUME they died because of the coronavirus when it could have been an asymptomatic case for all the statisticians know.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid
As of Mar 19 2020 in the UK coronavirus is not considered a high-consequence infectious disease.
An interview with an expert discusses the various issues surrounding statistical monitoring of morality, etc.
https://www.anti-empire.com/renowed...f-statistics-slams-dramatization-of-covid-19/
US doctor and ex-politician on the abuses that may be enacted to control a disease of exaggerated lethality:
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2020/march/16/the-coronavirus-hoax
How to understand the coronavirus death toll
But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus. Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales - factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure is around 600,000. The coronavirus deaths will not be in addition to these, as statistician Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, explains. "There will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period."
99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.
Coronavirus Death Rate in Wuhan Is Lower than Previously Thought, Study Finds
An inside look at the debate around pandemic bonds, which have $425 million hinging on how deadly the coronavirus ends up being | Markets Insider
Do you think some of these banks betting on pandemic bonds own newspapers?
Israeli virologist urges world leaders to calm public, slams ‘unnecessary panic’
leading Israeli virologist on Sunday urged world leaders to calm their citizens about the coronavirus pandemic, saying people were being whipped into unnecessary panic. Prof. Jihad Bishara, the director of the Infectious Disease Unit at Petah Tikva’s Beilinson Hospital, said that some of the steps being taken in Israel and abroad were very important, but the virus is not airborne, most people who are infected will recover without even knowing they were sick, the at-risk groups are now known, and the global panic is unnecessary and exaggerated. “I’ve been in this business for 30 years,” Bishara said in a Channel 12 interview. “I’ve been through MERS, SARS, Ebola, the first Gulf war and the second, and I don’t recall anything like this. There’s unnecessary, exaggerated panic. We have to calm people down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI
Normally 7 to 15% of all flu and acute respiratory infections are caused by a coronavirus. The test for the novel coronavirus is NOT validated, meaning people don't know if it's actually doing what it's intended to do (distinguish the novel coronavirus from other strains or even other viruses.
More Good News from 2 Additional Stanford Professors | TexAgs
"Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professors of medicine at Stanford, conclude the current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. They point to the significant "denominator problem" often discussed here by those who are familiar with advanced modeling.
...
Next, the northeastern Italian town of V, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of V were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That's more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy's case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.
...
An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that's a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism."
List of interviews of medical experts taking issue with the overblown estimations of mortality
One of those interviewed expands here:
Coronavirus lockdown “useless, grotesque, collective suicide” – World-renowned virologist
How lethal is Covid-19 REALLY? Why massive fatality rates from Italy are MISLEADING
"But the larger number, the confirmed cases, must by definition be an underestimate. It would be impossible for every person in a country positive for the coronavirus to have been already tested and added to the confirmed cases. The virus can be dormant in people for up to two weeks, and young people can experience very mild or even no symptoms at all, and still be positive for the virus. Since that figure is by definition too low, the mortality rates being reported are by definition too high.
Another factor is that governments are being pushed well beyond their capabilities for mass testing and contact tracing, some more than others. With typical efficiency, Germany is on top of their testing situation, and as such have picked up many milder cases. Therefore they have a high number of confirmed cases relative to the true number of infected people in Germany.
This is keeping the mortality rate in Germany down at 0.5 percent, baffling experts who are expecting apocalyptic scenes at the hospitals, the likes of which have so far only materialized in Italy. Perhaps the cases will soon mount up in Germany, and their mortality rate will climb toward the four or five percent that seems to be the European average. But due to the asymptomatic people (a majority according to the best research) even that is an exaggeratedly high rate."
https://www.westernjournal.com/harv...ity-rate-far-lower-world-health-org-suggests/
Older patients, defined in the paper, had an estimated 2.7 percent risk of dying from COVID-19. For those who were between the ages of 15 and 64, estimated risk of death was only 0.5 percent. For those ages 15-44, low and high estimates were 0.1 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively; those ages 45-64 had estimates of between 0.2 percent and 1.1 percent.
https://theduran.com/ben-swann-drops-bombshell-seasonal-flu-twice-as-deadly-as-coronavirus/
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/fe...-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms.html
According to a study in Iceland fully half of carriers of coronavirus are symptomatic, giving credence to the speculation that the actual mortality rate of coronavirus a fraction of what is calculated using confirmed cases only.
Corroboration on the low mortality rate:
https://www.anti-empire.com/america...e-just-a-bad-flu-with-a-fatality-rate-of-0-1/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2“ (This 0.1% matches the flu mortality rate when using estimated cases that include asymptomatic spread).
Oxford Model: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms. If her work is accurate, that would likely mean a large swath of the population has built up resistance to the virus. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
Links on some of the causes of Italy's statistics
https://www.anti-empire.com/italys-...ecipe-for-disaster-has-made-the-crisis-worse/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
From the latter: “It’s too early to make a comparison across Europe,” he says. “We do not have detailed sero-surveillance of the population and we do not know how many asymptomatic people are spreading it.” Once again it's the issue of the denominator, as well as an inflated numerator due to the medical system not being sufficiently specific about the actual cause of death - if someone who died tests positive for coronavirus their statistics ASSUME they died because of the coronavirus when it could have been an asymptomatic case for all the statisticians know.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid
As of Mar 19 2020 in the UK coronavirus is not considered a high-consequence infectious disease.
An interview with an expert discusses the various issues surrounding statistical monitoring of morality, etc.
https://www.anti-empire.com/renowed...f-statistics-slams-dramatization-of-covid-19/
US doctor and ex-politician on the abuses that may be enacted to control a disease of exaggerated lethality:
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2020/march/16/the-coronavirus-hoax
I had a lot of fun in Georgia and Germany. Germany was great back then. I don't think I would want to visit now.
)
