Elon Musk: Tech Genius! Green Warrior! Biz King! Good Oligarch?

Starship hasn't made it to LEO. To get to the moon they say it'll take about twenty Starships.

They did it with a single rocket multiple times back in the '60s, allegedly.
Won't be going to Mars.
Well, the lunar lander weighed 6 tons while Starship weighs about 150 tons, with about half of that for cargo. The Apollo return vehicle that launched from the Moon weighed 2 tons, while Starship would weigh at least 70-80 tons when launching from the Moon. That's a 30-40x difference, while the Apollo rocket was just slightly smaller than the Starship+Booster.

And it is supposed to be reusable, as in just fill it up with fuel and you can launch again. The Falcon rockets do show that reusability works, some of them flew over 20 times.

I think in terms of adventure, inspiration and expanding horizons, there is nothing wrong with going to other planets. Especially if it can be done by reducing the cost sufficiently through reusability.
 
On the other hand I have great respect and admiration for what Astronauts and engineers accomplished, before, during and after the moon landings. That comes mainly from an engineering and science perspective. The job back then also sort of required the most capable people on earth to be accomplishable.
Not so sure, take a look at this photo from November 1962 during a meeting at Cape Canaveral.
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On the left we have James E Webb who ran NASA for several years before resigning in 1968. Of the Apollo 1 fire he requested of LBJ that NASA itself would investigate the incident.
Shock gripped NASA and the nation during the days that followed. James Webb told the media at the time, "We've always known that something like this was going to happen soon or later. . . . who would have thought that the first tragedy would be on the ground?" As the nation mourned, Webb went to President Lyndon Johnson and asked that NASA be allowed to handle the accident investigation and direct the recovery from the accident. He promised to be truthful in assessing blame and pledged to assign it to himself and NASA management as appropriate. The agency set out to discover the details of the tragedy, to correct problems, and to get back on schedule.
So he was 'surprised' about the accident, when you read the report on Apollo 1 it comes as no surprise, more on that later but he promised to be truthful, really, he did.
Next to him is LBJ, enough said! Then next to him is SS-Staffelrottenführer, Kurt Debus, direktor of the Nazi V2 program which used a lot of slave labor. He was an Operation Paperclip hire so we don't know his true character.
Then comes JFK, he seems to be a mixed bag. Back in 1996 the Cs said...
Q: (L) Back to Kennedy, people say that Marilyn Monroe committed suicide, some say she was murdered. Was she murdered?
A: Yes.
Q: (L) Was she murdered by the Kennedy's or someone else?
A: Both.
Q: (L) Was it because she was going to reveal things?
A: Yes.
Reveal that his character left much to be desired? Would like to know, had a girlfriend a long time ago who said her mother worked for Kennedy, best of a rotten bunch according to her. Interestingly a mildly heated conversation between Kennedy and Webb was recorded around the time this photo was taken. Kennedy clearly states that he's 'not that interested in space' and just wanted to beat the Soviets, rather shallow when you think about it. Webb sounds a bit pissed off, it was only 6 weeks after Kennedy's moon speech, I'd be pissed off too!
Next to JFK is Lieutenant General Leighton Ira Davis who history paints as pretty harmless, NASA awarded him a medal for 'outstanding leadership'. Not sure what NASA's definition of leadership is and it seems the bar is set pretty low.
Finally we have Robert McNamara who was involved in the incineration of Japanese civilians during WWII. Here are some of his thoughts.
LeMay said, “If we’d lost the war, we’d all have been prosecuted as war criminals.” And I think he’s right. He, and I’d say I, were behaving as war criminals. LeMay recognized that what he was doing would be thought immoral if his side had lost. But what makes it immoral if you lose and not immoral if you win?
Agent Orange
Were those who issued the approval to use Agent Orange criminals? Were they committing a crime against humanity? Let’s look at the law. Now what kind of law do we have that says these chemicals are acceptable for use in war and these chemicals are not. We don’t have clear definitions of that kind. I never in the world would have authorized an illegal action. I’m not really sure I authorized Agent Orange. I don’t remember it, but it certainly occurred, the use of it occurred while I was Secretary.
Sounds like a war criminal to me. So were these men suitable or even capable of leading a nation to the moon? Doubt it; they were very capable liars, philanderers, cheats, warmongers and so forth but not national leaders.
As for NASA Apollo engineering, in March 2020 a document was uploaded to the NASA technical server titled 'Recurring Causes of Human Spaceflight Mishaps during Flight Tests and Early Operations' Among other things it covers the Apollo 1 fire. before this fire there were other fires including one in 1966, several month before.
Apollo 1. An electrical fire occurred in an Apollo command module environmental control system (ECS) test rig in a vacuum chamber in 1966. The test was conducted under a lower atmospheric pressure (i.e., 5 psi to simulate cabin pressure in space versus 16.7 psi for the LC 34 test), but in a 100% oxygen environment. The test incident report was classified and inaccessible to personnel without a security clearance [ref. 6].
They covered it up! They covered up their, dangerous engineering and procedures which led to the deaths of 3 astronauts. There was a lone voice in the wilderness, one Thomas Baron, NASA, with their usual attention to detail misname him 'Barton' in the document. He was a quality control inspector for North American Aviation and mentions shenanigans galore in his report. Appears he got the Boeing whistleblower treatment on a level crossing 2 months after the fire.
TT4 – Accepted Team Practices LTA See Thomas Barton Report. He was a quality inspector for NAA, and he communicated quality/workmanship problems to his supervisor, but nothing happened. He documented contamination issues, poor workmanship, people sleeping and drinking on the job,
“Poor workmanship is evidenced by the continual high rates of rejection and MRB actions which result in rework that would not be necessary if the workmanship had been good…Recognizing that overtime shifts are necessary at this time, it is our view that strong and knowledgeable supervision of these overtime shifts is necessary…NAA quality is not up to NASA required standards. This is evidenced by the large number of ‘correction’ E.O.’s and manufacturing discrepancies.
Four oxygen fires in the five years before the Apollo 1 accident were proof enough.
Even Apollo astronaut Frank Borman said the engineering and knowledge base was utterly lacking
Astronaut Borman, in commenting on his reactions to the conditions surrounding the Apollo 204 test and subsequent knowledge he has gained as a result of serving on the Review Board, stated to Dr. Seamans, Dr. Thompson, and to me that he would not have been concerned to enter the capsule at the time Grissom, White and Chaffee did so for the test, and would not at the time have regarded the operation as involving substantial hazard. However, he stated that his work on the Board has convinced him that there were hazards present beyond the understanding of either NASA's engineers or astronauts.
Indeed there was Frank, because they covered things up. Grissom was aware of how bad things were and its entirely possible he got the Boeing whistleblower treatment.
Grissom was so frustrated by the many technical failures of the craft that he hung a lemon in the simulator. Also, the three astronauts posed for a crew picture with their heads bowed and their hands clasped together as if in prayer, because of their concerns with the spacecraft’s quality and integrity.
However, despite all the poor leadership and engineering, less 2 years later they all these issues sorted and Borman flew around the moon! They repeated this feat 10 times in all with six landings, incredible! A feat that has not been repeated since and it's highly unlikely they ever will!
Good luck Elon!
 
More pretty bad signs for that whole Mars idea of Musk in my book. See below.

Today, they managed for the first time to get someone into space with the new space suit of SpaceX:


Notice how pretty bad the mobility seems to be in the new suits. The old suits from back then might have been better in that respect.

BUT, here is the real kicker: On the radio today I was floored to hear the following, "the spaceship has no airlock. Instead, the whole inside of the spaceship gets exposed to space". WHAT? How can you be that stupid!?!

Here is how the spaceship looked like before they opened it:


So, let's summarize:

- They have planned the first ever exposure of that new suit to space to take place in a spaceship that was designed in that way.
- The costs of planing and constructing that spaceship were probably very high. As was the delivery into space.
- It looks like there are 3 people on board.
- So, they were truly so stupid and careless to plan and design that mission to have ALL (!!!) passengers on board exposed to space with a totally new suit that was never tested on humans in space!
- What could go wrong? EVERYTHING!
- So, they not just put all the passengers under great risk of dying instantly, but also to have the whole spaceship destroyed instantly. Very well invested money!

I tell ya, I can't wrap my mind around the idea that anyone (and especially engineers!!!) could plan or approve of such an idea! It's a no-brainer. And they want to go to Mars? You must be kidding me.

There is no chance that before, during and after the moon landings anything as crazy as what they just did would have happened. In fact, I think pretty much anyone involved in the missions back then would have immediately, in a matter of seconds, dismissed such an idea as totally crazy and stupid.
 
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Notice how pretty bad the mobility seems to be in the new suits.
I don't see bad mobility. It looks to me like the guy did not try to move around much. Also, somehow they got themselves from the launch preperation area into the space ship before launch so mobility can't be that bad.

As for testing, surely they simulated a space environment on the ground when creating the suits. No one in that team would be dumb enough to go up in the suit if they hadn't been tested and proven to be good enough.
 
As for testing, surely they simulated a space environment on the ground when creating the suits. No one in that team would be dumb enough to go up in the suit if they hadn't been tested and proven to be good enough.

No matter how good the simulation, you can't simulate true space conditions on earth. I think it is a very bad idea to do the first ever test of that suit in real space with 3 humans, all of which could/would die instantly.
 
Notice how pretty bad the mobility seems to be in the new suits.

To my eyes it looked like an 80 yr old was of to get some air. And this was just a demo of "sticking one's head" out into Space.

Boy, the images from the 70's were so much more like Road Runner

 
My bet is that at least some engineers in Space X must have voiced serious concerns about how this was planned and carried out, but that someone higher up, maybe even Musk himself, ignored and/or downplayed that feedback. If no one voiced concerns at Space X they have a even bigger problem.

Here are some basic principles Astronauts and the whole apparatus around them understood very well in the days of the moon landings. All of which Space X seems to manage to ignore or have backwards:

- The life of the Astronaut has the highest priority.

- You ALWAYS have a backup plan, and more specifically, at least 1 Astronaut that is in a relatively “safe“ space in order to be able to help others who face more danger and have control over the space ship and equipment when something goes wrong.

- In preparation for the real deal, and during the real deal, you make sure to reduce risks as much as possible. Much of that relies on the principle that theory and practice can, and often are, two totally different things. In other words: you try to rely as little as possible ONLY on theory. Instead you try to rely as much as possible on things that have been tested thoroughly in real life and under real conditions.

- Every Astronaut is required to be pretty much a polymath and also be able to withstand great physical adversaries: Everyone on board has to be able to do everything on board manually, including managing/flying the space ship without much or any assistance of high tech.

- The ship must be constructed to be able to be used/managed with as little high tech as possible if needed. And with parts that are as durable/mechanical/reliable as possible. Only relying on modern electronics and screens runs very much contrary to that.
 
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No matter how good the simulation, you can't simulate true space conditions on earth. I think it is a very bad idea to do the first ever test of that suit in real space with 3 humans, all of which could/would die instantly.
The Gemini crafts and the Apollo Moon Lander also didn't have an airlock but the whole craft was de-pressurized.
The EVA suits were tested in vacuum chambers, I believe that is how new spacesuits are always tested.

- So, they not just put all the passengers under great risk of dying instantly, but also to have the whole spaceship destroyed instantly. Very well invested money!

I tell ya, I can't wrap my mind around the idea that anyone (and especially engineers!!!) could plan or approve of such an idea! It's a no-brainer. And they want to go to Mars? You must be kidding me.
There are 4 members of the crew. The mission was funded (and commanded) by billionaire entrepreneur Isaacsman.
Here is all the info: Polaris Dawn I am sure they were all aware of the risks and had enough expertise to know if they feel safe to go ahead with the mission.

The Dragon spacecraft were used for docking to ISS, bringing astronauts there. There was no need for an airlock. The Starship spacecraft will be the one to transport more people on much longer flights. SpaceX
 
Because it is the first semi sort of private enterprise that accomplished this.

I'm almost certain that if I could access the data and run an analysis, I could prove Elon spent 5x more to do this than it cost NASA or the Russians in 1965 dollar real terms.

Fortunately for me, that data will remain forever obscured by "National Security", so my claim can never be contested. 🙂
 
I'm almost certain that if I could access the data and run an analysis, I could prove Elon spent 5x more to do this than it cost NASA or the Russians in 1965 dollar real terms.

Actually, one of Musk's goals was/is to minimize the cost of space travel and make rockets reusable, in which both he succeded. He managed to build rockets that cost a fraction of the price. Here is a NASA report on that: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001091/downloads/20200001091.pdf

Here is a more a more in-depth look at this: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars — Page 4 of 5 — Wait But Why
 
The big question is why you would want to do that Mars colonization thing in the first place?

I‘m pretty sure it is partly based on Musk’s rather delusional mainstream view that “we know so much that we can pretty quickly turn the planet into an inhabitable planet via artificial carbon emissions and such." Good luck with that! Leaving that rather silly idea aside, what you are doing is spending enormous sums of money and energy to send people to the most non-inhabitable place you could imagine, to live there. The worst desert on earth is nothing compared to Mars. It is so silly.

The other component in Musk’s mind is that we as a species have to become interplanetary. That is also based on a very naive and mainstream understanding, probably fueled by science fiction such as Star Trek.

And still another reason in Musk’s mind is that it is a good idea to escape to Mars, because, of course, you wouldn’t have the same problems there that face humanity and are inherent to humanity. Sure! Good luck with that.
 
The big question is why you would want to do that Mars colonization thing in the first place?

He sees it like this: concerning the Fermi paradox, why there seem to be no aliens as yet discovered, if our civilization is so rare in this universe, if the human consciousness is so rare, Musk thinks it is very important to make sure that human consciousness survives since it is so precious. That is why he thinks it is best to have a "safe option" if the Earth is hit by a catastrophe (a comet for example) where humans can keep the species alive.
Source: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars — Page 2 of 5 — Wait But Why

This is one of the best interviews with Elon Musk where he explains all of his ideas, motivations and fears:
 
He sees it like this: concerning the Fermi paradox, why there seem to be no aliens as yet discovered, if our civilization is so rare in this universe, if the human consciousness is so rare, Musk thinks it is very important to make sure that human consciousness survives since it is so precious. That is why he thinks it is best to have a "safe option" if the Earth is hit by a catastrophe (a comet for example) where humans can keep the species alive.

Which is, pardon my English: More mainstream nonsense which strongly underpins his idea’s and plans.
 
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