As for Musk's behavior, he's really screwed the pooch on this. At least Vivek Ramaswamy had the good sense to bow out. Musk instead began cussing and ranting at people, encouraging others to block them, throttling opposing views, and outright banned some accounts. He's made a complete ar$e of himself and alienated key supporters on X and in the MAGA movement in general. And that political vacuum he opened - however small, for now; I don't want to overstate it - has been filled by genuinely racist right-wingers who want the status quo to collapse in favour of a theocracy.
Last week, one of my team member(who was on H1B) mentioned about this debate on X. I was busy to close some deliverables and ignored it. This is pretty old debate and LOT had happened in the last 30 years. What is new here? I tried to make sense by looking at the situation on X. This will be long post and wants to address many "emotional" click bite rants going on the X. You may consider it as a rant.
Going Chronologically w.r.t my understanding:
- When I tried to choose specialization in my college in India (1986), the choices was between Electronics & communication and Computer Science, I was told, there is electronics hardware for next 100 years, but no body knows whether software is built over it or not. If some body software is built, Software has future. so I went with Electronics.
- Decade Forward (1995), Software Craze started initially in my state capital (Hyderabad, India, followed by all other big cities like Mumbai and other south Indian cities Bangalore, Chennai) primarily fueled by US demand
- Y2K need,
- Companies desire to replace laborious mainframe (software and hardware) to Unix Systems.
- Netscape browser was written and people started seeing the potential etc.
- All this needs technical graduates, who are flexible to claim any thing 'this new market' Wants and get Job done or at least 'manage' situation. Previous decade saw massive increase in the graduates (in Engineering) in my state (Andhra Pradesh, India) due to normal Farmers desire to spread the risk and heavily invested in the education of the Children. It is these unemployed technical graduates who clamored newly opened software institutes to check their luck and soon safely employed people too joined to see what the buzz is all about. All this fed into a supply chain mechanism then called 'body shoppers' . A middle man company submits candidate resume to American middle man's company , that feeds into big American software companies (IBM, AT &T and so on). Now we call it subcontracting. In this market, Indians are preferred by American companies because they has "better" English to communicate than Chinese.
- Those days H1B is temporary worker visa, only 6 years unless one gets green card in between (which was not that easy). Else one has to go back to native country and not eligible for 6 months for reapplying and Person can't stay unemployed more than a month etc. Lot went back leaving the car in airport parking lot and mailing key chain to the lending bank. It was very uncertain situation and these small middle companies hold passport to avoid people moving companies and there were complaints against them and Govt. raids and so on.
- But the Internet boom hype started by end of the 90's and companies spent ridiculous amount of money for website brand (even advertised on Radio) and networking the world by putting under water cables all over the world. But, that bubble burst, leaving the under/unused ocean cable network. So companies tried to monetize the bandwidth moving small jobs to India and soon led to Wall Street ( or Venture capitalists) demanding shifting Software development to Offshore (India is prime candidate).
- By 2004, All Major corporations started the process and to address the employee concerns (cultural, communication gaps and job security etc.), they took us to lectures that preach 'Diversity and Inclusion' etc. Initial estimation is that it takes 2 years to transfer the skill set and we all were asked to shift to management or look for new Job. Well, all didn't went well smoothly, the 'Savings from that investment' has to be realized in layoff's that followed with in 3 to 5 years. Those days, what we were told that is 'It is like restaurant menu', you get the requirements from business and manage the Outsourced company to do it. Big US companies. don't want to rely on small suppliers and saw the advent of Gorillas of today ( IBM, Cognizant, Infosys, HCL etc.)
- We wondered how these offshore company handle this sudden demand? - Answer is Simple. They throw in 10 people and out of which 2 or 3 pick up and run the show. They made them team leads and let them run the show and recycle other people in other projects. In this process of clabber for raising to higher positions( bringing more money), few really sticks to learning basics ( coding or technology or business needs).
- This explosion of Outsourcing (primary offshoring) needed lot of H1B visa even to 'keep lights on', But there is lot of resistance to increase the H1B quota per year. The middle ground is let them stay after 6 years as long green card process is in specific state and person can't jump company when this is going on. So, now it takes 10 to 15 years even to get green card. It is very uncertain period for the most.
- The consulting companies who make more money moving to India, play all sorts to avoid doing green cards. They want to bring in Indians to onsite coordinate offshore operations. Handling offshore resources is NO JOKE. Why?- Even those guys were shuttled in so many projects and uncertainties, they never had opportunities to learn the basics or stick to one position. But, the deliverables has to be managed.
- Moving 2 decades forward (2024):
- In this company 85% consultants 15% American FTE's( full time employees). Out of the consultants, 70% offshore and 30% onshore. H1B is only needed for this 30% onshore consultants.
- In Theory, Director orders the dish from menu, it should come. But it doesn't come, so they need senior managers, leads, analysts to fill the gap as a "buffer". This is the Gap most of the FTE's fill.
- I was talking to my client director few months back and she expressed why her teams projects are not moving any where. My answer to her is - 80/20 rule or Pareto curve. She says that is unacceptable. If some body not doing home work of basics and every body wants to blame it on others, I can't violate his free will. She says 'there is no free will'. There is a saying in mother tongue - 'Fruits doesn't fall to ground for mantras'. One can endlessly complain of others, do fine talk according to whatever amendment, at the end work has to get done. If the consulting companies does the work as they promise, most of us wouldn't have jobs for the last 2 decades.
- But, consulting companies has VERY BIG advantage in this world where technologies change TOO fast. To day, you ask for A skill set, they have so-called "experts". Tomorrow your ask for B Skill set, there have it too. You can't replicate that in-house.
Who is better?
After working in the Industry for almost 30 years, IMHO that is wrong question. Where ever I went I see 80/20 rule or Pareto curve in any group irrespective of group composition ( white/black/brown , on site/offsite , Christian/Muslim/Hindu , American/Indian/Chinese). why is it so? God knows. This is where US companies prefer consulting companies, as they don't need to deal with hiring and firing complications and re-adaptations.
What's New in the latest Debate?
Before, any consulting company brought in, there are vague private promises made in advance between the higher ups over 'whatever'. All this is done in advance and people who supposed to implement the mandate brought in later. What does 'Government' guy has any thing to do with H1B?. Isn't enough Govt. system already working on Out source(Offshore) mode in the last decade? Obviously there is more.
How many times, we heard 'Efficiency' or similar word, whenever upper management change, replace people, promote 'new direction', cook up and present glossy results, take their millions and move on with in 4 to 5 years? It is same 'Lather, rinse, repeat'.
Musk is just laying seeds in the form of the debate.
Who are the Losers?
30 years back, Software grew out of nowhere to prepare and had to import. But now, they have
108,000 computer science graduates every year. Even sharp and hard working students are struggling to even get a one Internship as there is so much ridiculous competition and they spend 150 to 200 thousand dollars even to graduate. It is ridiculous to say American Universities worse than Indian Institutions. They are not. In any group of people, there is always that 20% despite all the ideological nonsense going on.
What it really means is Outsourcing companies don't want to take Americans for the Jobs. Nothing new or surprising from Outsourcing companies perspective either. Even if one is hired, it is no easy job to handle with principles or work-life balance or Free speech and so on.
This is double whammy for Americans. One end, the people who had jobs is going to loose, the new graduates won't get it and some body else is going to get it. Is there any hope?
What does Trump wants to do?
One end, he wants to bring in manufacturing for his MAGA, other end he wants to send high end software Jobs to offshore? How does that translate? If he is serious about training his people, he can do what has been done 30 years back. H1B is temporary visa for 6 years and train your people in those years. Reality is lot more complicated.
If some body can create ridiculous gender non-sense, appoint to top positions, force all the work force in that nonsense, he can easily prioritize Americans in all Jobs, If he wants. True, Outsourcing companies won't give the 'deal' he is looking for. At the end, he will be out in 4 years to see the fate of this work force.
Musk may crib, throw his position in DOGE, go against Trump and so on, if H1B is not increased. It is his prestige issue. As a elected leader, Trump will have to find some body else. That is his job.
Stereotyping and slander
Normally, India doesn't play much role in Western news cycle unless they want to remind themselves as conquerors to project some 'Virtue' or remind people of Nuclear war going to destroy every body.
- How many people remember John Oliver show on the eve of 2014 Modi's inauguration? In that he asks a neocon guy about 'India and Modi'. His answer is "what India? Is it George Bush's Dog?".
- I find it bizarre to see recycle old images of trains full of people, naked sadhus as the H1B visa guys. It is indication of Americans hopelessness in influencing their own elected leaders.
- 'Hindus Killing Muslims' nonsense. Where are they when Muslims massacring Hindus?
- Any positive news of India evokes weird reaction in the Western masses. If one reads the comments on RT articles which projects any positive image of India (which they are doing for last 2 to 3 years), one see the same set of stereo typical unease (some times disgust) in the form of "snakes, elephants, idol worshippers, caste", unclean and corrupt so on. Is that all India there is in the country? This is the question I asked my self during last 2 years trying to make sense of origins of this "image". To quote one British official of early 20th century to the Feminist author of best "porn" job on India published and promoted wildly in West century ago - "Mother India"
To such Indians as I met, whether then or later, I made the same statement. In the period that followed, the introductions that both gave me, coupled with the untiring courtesy and helpfulness alike of Indians and of British, official or private, all over India, made possible a survey more thorough than could have been accomplished in five times the time without such aid.
"But whatever you do, be careful not to generalize," the British urged. "In this huge country little or nothing is everywhere true. Madras and Peshawar, Bombay and Calcutta - attribute the things of one of these to any one of the others, and you are out of court."
One can pick and choose whatever one want, publish to their "glory". It is not typical Western Individualistic society and may not fit into their model or their expectations. When Westerners one day woke up and talk about 'Diversity, Inclusion' and 'Racism', Most of the Indians laugh at it ( "You know nothing, Jon Snow" sense). I called it in my childhood 'mind numbing complexity', with largest state has population that contains more than the entire Europe and each state is like another European country.
What does Indians think about all this?
Conflicts of Migrants and Locals are nothing new to Indians. It took many forms (politics, violence, armed rebellions, demand for separate nation and so on) over its short 75 years history. It existed long before Vasco da Gama "Invented" India with its own issues and problems.
This H1B is just a drop in the ocean of their India's unemployed who is looking for legal route. Those who wants to go on illegal route, they will do it any way and will have their "lessons".
There is a old saying 'If Rockefeller in American has million dollars in New York bank, it doesn't fill my stomach'.
At the end, This is American Political issue rather than Indian. If it is not Indian, it is Chinese or Philippines or Polish or who ever. It is up to Trump to decide what he wants to do.