Brian Berletic is usually very good with his analysis but in this case I'm not sure. He has been constantly referring in recent videos to the Brookings Institution paper "Which path to Persia?" from back in 2009. He seems convinced that the US is trying to provoke war with Iran through Israel, whereas to me it looks like that is just one faction of the government which is not getting its way right now. He references the assassination of Soleimani but overlooks the evidence that back channel diplomacy played a big role in avoiding escalation. The US seems to recognise that it cannot afford to do this right now, economically and strategically.
It seems more likely that it is Israel which is trying to drag the US into a larger war, but even they can see that going badly for them. It remains to be seen how they will approach the next move - the ball being in their court. Did they strike the consulate in Damascus opportunistically because they knew they would get away with it, or was it part of a deliberate strategy of escalation? Do the higher levels of their government (or even above the level of countries) care about the fallout at this point?
We all know Israel is a mad dog but I think that's about to be put to the test like never before.
Here's my guess.
After the bombing of those aid workers, govt's around the world - even Israeli allies - were signalling Israel to calm down. Then the strike on the consulate happened. Who knows who ordered it, or why they did. Maybe to shift focus from their aid worker strike? Again, who knows.
But apparently, the US wasn't informed of the Israeli strike, and they were pissed off about it because if Iran responded in force, it could a war in the ME, skyrocketing oil prices, and maybe collapse of the world's financial infrastructure, not to mention WWIII.
The neocons probably don't care about the effects of war with Iran, they just want war with Iran in the same way they want war with Russia, war with China. The Sullivan and Blinken crew are electioneers first and foremost, and as opposed to the neocons, they want a nice smooth geopolitical situation from now until November. So the Biden admin actually used diplomatic pressure to bring together Israel and Iran to allow the Iranian attack to happen.
Another bit I've heard, just to throw it out there, is that the US want access to Iran's vast natural gas reserves. It's a key green agenda transition fuel. The US won't get any from Russia, so there may be some circles in the USA who want to court Iran, in the name of natural gas, and not blow them away.
So that's what I've gathered. And in reality, probably way more complex than that. Because in Israel and Iran there are undoubtedly different factions with different agendas.
Anyways, Iran's missile strike was deployed using both Russian and Chinese military satellite networks. So it could be that Russia and China actually brought Iran to the table to talk and make the back channel deal. And then the US brought Israel. Who knows how these back channels work. But Israel will probably know by now that Russia and China helped with the attack.
Berletic focuses on the 2009 report - most of the war games in there are focused on taking out Iran's nuclear facilities. Maybe it's kinda outdated? Official plans for Iran have probably changed since the report, in particular due to Iran's ascendancy to BRICS+. That membership means all kinds of ties, thought I don't know the exact substance of security guarantees given by Russia and China. It is a deterrent, though. That they were involved in the attack via satellite assistance says a lot, I think.
So whether or not it was a trap for Iran, who knows. One faction probably intended it that way - maybe a group of neocons/Zionists. Even though we generally have an idea of evil masterminds with unbelievable powers of coordination, Prouty wrote in
The Secret Team that the CIA often organizes a planned attack mostly on impulse, without much forward thinking. In true psychopath form. This could have been the same. And if it was the same, it may not have been an intentional trap - the Bay of Pigs started off as a very, very small operation, and just went haywire and became the massive scandal we know today.
