Great, I'll be reading it.
New Show: MindMatters (RIP Truth Perspective)
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Great, I'll be reading it.
I stopped watching after 20 minutes because it was so harrowing, but I would like to finish it today. I think it is very useful to think about these things, especially with all the madness going on around us. So, thank you MindMatters crew.
Just listened to this one, very interesting and the concept of antifragility is very useful to keep in mind. Perhaps it is also a function of belief. If we believe, as we haved been trained to, that we are unable to grow and build ourselves through stress and "negative" events then that will be our reality. Yet if we believe we are antifragile, then maybe that will be our reality.
Can't say I agree with all of his points on everything, especially how black swans just cannot be predicted (and other such things). The problem really is, as Laura has covered, the sheer level of idiocy and the prophecy 400:1 ratio. So it's not that they can't be predicted, but rather that only very few are gifted to predict them, and even then as soon as the majority believe their prediction, reality changes so that it no longer happens as/when expected.
By the way Ray Dalio was mentioned on the show. Don't be fooled he is a scumbag like the rest of them. In fact not a single big finance guy will give you an accurate prediction of anything. Partly because they have large followings and weight of opinion so it's mathematically impossible in a universe where only scarce ideas/predictions come true. And partly because they are charlatans who profit enormously by having the crowd on the wrong side of their trades.
Luckily all you need is a simple chart and google to check any persons record on predicting something. From hedge fund guys to wall street bankers to nobel prize winning economists, they all tell you exactly the wrong thing. Here's Ray's record. I coulda stuck way more of his dumbass predictions on this but you get the point.
That seems true enough. I do hope you get to read the book though (if you haven't already) so that you get a better sense of just how much Taleb qualifies what he says. Perhaps if enough people are interested, we can start a separate thread about it - with a focus on the parts that speak to his central thesis and what that means for how we can potentially become stronger.
As for Ray Dalio, while I have no doubt that he has probably benefited personally from making negative predictions and shorting the market as a result of the psychology he would have induced in investors, he has said a number of things recently that do seem consistent with a lot of trends and probable outcomes we mostly only read about from 'alternative sources'. I suppose he's made such a splash recently because he represents the monied class to some large degree, and has been so outspoken about where things seem to be going.
I could be wrong but I think that Dalio probably sees the bigger economic picture and is wise enough to realize that, at the very least, if things continue to go bad for the average working class westerner, the repercussions on the rich will also, in the end, be pretty bad. Is his outspokenness born of a purely altruistic motivation? I doubt it. But I also tend do doubt that he's a total scumbag too. Thinking on this a little further, lets take Trump. The guy has been involved in shady (and sometimes really shady) real estate and business dealings all his life. But who would have thought ten, twenty, thirty years ago - that he genuinely wanted to improve conditions for the average person in the US. I know I didn't, and have been more or less following his career for that long. So, not a perfect analogy, but maybe there's a bit more to Dalio and his statements than meets the eye. Fwiw.
Icons of financial industry warn: "We will kill each other" if our broken economic system isn't fixed -- Sott.net
Two hedge fund icons - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones - joined Yahoo Finance for the 2nd annual Greenwich Investment Forum earlier this month. Speaking directly after Connecticut Gov. New Lamont, with whom Dalio is working to...
www.sott.net
Economist Ray Dalio: The world has gone mad -- Sott.net
"This set of circumstances is unsustainable". Money is free for those who are creditworthy because the investors who are giving it to them are willing to get back less than they give. More specifically investors lending to those who are...
www.sott.net
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We decided to end the year on a lighter note - with commie jokes - made by the people who lived it. But don't worry, we get into some of the societal, political and cultural underpinnings of this pretty interesting genre of humor!
MindMatters: The Best Thing About Communism Was The Jokes
MindMatters: The Best Thing About Communism Was The Jokes
Yes I have probably not gotten a full impression of his arguments and the nuances in them despite your guys' very good summary, either way the book is definitely worth a read and sounds full of applicable philosophy, so it is on the list :) .
Perhaps it is harsh to paint the man as just another lowlife charlatan. However there is a wide gulf between making a general statement on the world and the economy, and making specific predictions that people will follow.
For the last decade he has been telling us a crash is just around the corner. But just putting his predictions on a chart (not actually such a bad indicator of the US economy in general), he has been dead wrong, and if anyone actually took his advice (i.e. stay out of the stock market or short it), they have clearly just missed a massive opportunity to build wealth for themselves, their families and their communities.
And now yet again he's saying it's over. If a doctor tells you the wrong answer for 10 years it's not so wise to go back to him for his opinion yet again.
Exceptionalism is being fueled through these means partly because "they" know that letting a recession happen now means China inherits the world. Part of this is an absolute race to innovation and expansion, particularly into space.
He doesn't realise it's not broken at all, it was designed this way. Of course we know it's not just the fed that's running the show, but ultimately 4D STS. The planet is a business with assets + liabilities + owner's equity, and as humans we are not owners but assets.
As money is divided infinitely and approaches zero, assets priced in money approach infinity. Through endless issuance of debt, owners of assets leverage those assets through this finance to create more assets. This expansion goes on until a situation occurs where enough assets are created in the hands of people whereby it's time for the ultimate owners to pull the plug on this credit, crash those asset prices back towards zero and take ownership of them once whoever got caught holding the bag is liquidated.
Thing is, not many people really have assets right now, so the timing doesn't seem quite right. What you'd need is a dot-com scale melt-up to really get everyone on board and shaken out of their deep pessimism, and to erase those like Dalio and zerohedge who bet against it with awful timing. Everyone who is skeptical of the economy and the market now is future demand for when things get really crazy, just before they pull the plug, just as it always goes.
That assumes that they know that the market is a massive bubble though, and would sell out at the right time. Given much of the news by the MSM - that repeats how well things are going, it seems to me that all too many will lose their pensions and their pants unless they know about what's very likely coming. And most do not. So while I agree that specific predictions are silly, I don't think making a point of giving warning is a bad idea for those who have ears to hear.
He is far from alone in doing so however. Many observers outside of the corporate news have been scratching their heads for years at how inflated and tenuous the whole system is; almost in wonderment at how things have continued for as long as they have already. Also, considering the depth and breadth of the potential fallout, helping inure people to the hopium of some markets seems to me like something of a service.
Yup.
I'm not clear on what you mean by the above.
OK this is super interesting but I don't wanna take over the thread with just one point from one show and briefly summarize
For sure warning people of potential dangers is noble, but to an extent.
I liken it to climate change in that we are told to be mega fearful of human-caused stupidity and the inevitable disaster (which is in part true), however ignoring the natural cycle and knowledge that would actually help people. People wanna say sometimes the economy is a "bubble" and sometimes "real growth", but really it follows this natural cycle of expansion and contraction like anything else in the universe.
Yeah, it's good to warn a child of the dangers of death, but not in such a hysterical fashion that he/she becomes to afraid to participate in life. And that is, in my opinion, what is being done to people - it's an absolute mind job. It causes head-scratching in those whose bias (based on necessarily limited info) says that the market should be going down. But its going up, so I mean they've been wrong so far. How many times can you be wrong and still be called an expert? The answer is: infinite.
Timing matters in these things a lot. It was only this year that it started to really accelerate. The fed made the unprecedented move of announcing that they will sustain the "expansion" at all costs. Pundits actually being out there actually telling people to bet against the fed is insane. It could have a lot more juice in it and keep going up for another 5 or even 10 years until the cycle has run its course.
Warning someone of potentially dangerous tornadoes can be very useful. But continually warning them, falsely, of impending tornadoes every day for years is not responsible, because when the tornado finally comes for their house they will have stopped listening and assume you're full of it. The doomsayers don't know it yet but they are actively participating in and fueling the emotional environment that allows for these kind of crashes. Also there are real risks to holding cash or gold etc. in the wrong phase - they will both become steadily worth less and less relatively.
If it does continue going up, all those who sat on the sidelines fearfully will feel cheated, and after seeing others make crazy gains will be motivated to buy in even higher, at dangerously high prices. "Screw this, I'm not listening to Dalio anymore!". And that's when the whole thing is in trouble. But that's the way it always goes and it seems there's no way to fight the cycle, just as there's no way to fight the cycle of the rise and fall of societies, the phases of the moon or the changes in our climate. We just get to learn and watch them repeat helplessly
For sure warning people of potential dangers is noble, but to an extent.
I liken it to climate change in that we are told to be mega fearful of human-caused stupidity and the inevitable disaster (which is in part true), however ignoring the natural cycle and knowledge that would actually help people. People wanna say sometimes the economy is a "bubble" and sometimes "real growth", but really it follows this natural cycle of expansion and contraction like anything else in the universe.
Yeah, it's good to warn a child of the dangers of death, but not in such a hysterical fashion that he/she becomes to afraid to participate in life. And that is, in my opinion, what is being done to people - it's an absolute mind job. It causes head-scratching in those whose bias (based on necessarily limited info) says that the market should be going down. But its going up, so I mean they've been wrong so far. How many times can you be wrong and still be called an expert? The answer is: infinite.
Timing matters in these things a lot. It was only this year that it started to really accelerate. The fed made the unprecedented move of announcing that they will sustain the "expansion" at all costs. Pundits actually being out there actually telling people to bet against the fed is insane. It could have a lot more juice in it and keep going up for another 5 or even 10 years until the cycle has run its course.
Warning someone of potentially dangerous tornadoes can be very useful. But continually warning them, falsely, of impending tornadoes every day for years is not responsible, because when the tornado finally comes for their house they will have stopped listening and assume you're full of it. The doomsayers don't know it yet but they are actively participating in and fueling the emotional environment that allows for these kind of crashes. Also there are real risks to holding cash or gold etc. in the wrong phase - they will both become steadily worth less and less relatively.
If it does continue going up, all those who sat on the sidelines fearfully will feel cheated, and after seeing others make crazy gains will be motivated to buy in even higher, at dangerously high prices. "Screw this, I'm not listening to Dalio anymore!". And that's when the whole thing is in trouble. But that's the way it always goes and it seems there's no way to fight the cycle, just as there's no way to fight the cycle of the rise and fall of societies, the phases of the moon or the changes in our climate. We just get to learn and watch them repeat helplessly
SMM
The Living Force
Me too! This book came up during a video I was listening to hours before MM's Antifragile show was posted. Quite a synchronicity. It was fresh in my mind as a result. Here's the video I was listening to:
Ugh! I knew Taleb didn't like Peterson, but that was out of line.
From what I remember, it started a couple years ago when Peterson retweeted some nonsense about Assad and Syria. Taleb wasn't impressed. Then Peterson tweeted something endorsing GMO rice for India. Can't remember if that was the last straw or not, but the third thing was Peterson's focus on IQ. Taleb thinks IQ is bunk based on bad math/statistics. At the very best it can tell you if someone is incompetent, but that's about it. (I can't understand the math, so that's what I got out of it at the time.) And since IQ is the best psychometry has to offer, he thinks the rest is bunk - tiny correlations, for example. So from his point of view, psychologists (and social scientists in general) are frauds doing bad science. Since I don't know statistics and math, I can't judge his arguments, but if he's right about the math, it's unfortunate, because IMO JBP's best stuff isn't his psychometrics, but his clinical insight.
Some background on the IQ issue, along with links to Taleb's pieces for those with some background in statistics:
Taleb’s Call to Duel | Joshua P. Hochschild
Taleb has called the racialist behavioral geneticists to the field.
www.firstthings.com
IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle
Background : “IQ” is a stale test meant to measure mental capacity but in fact mostly measures extreme unintelligence (learning…
medium.com
Well how about I respond to some of the points you make, and then you can get the last word in - and then we’ll leave it at that?
Many things are 'natural'; earthquakes, the flu, getting poison ivy - that I would rather know of and reasonably prepare for if I can, than not. Does that mean one should spend all their time thinking about it, or when it may happen? Of course not. And then there's the fact that there's so much to the stock market (and the financial system in general) that isn't natural - but quite rigged, as you no doubt know. So the cognitive dissonance that people may be experiencing seems more due to the fact that the stock market is being pumped up ala high frequency trading, vulture capitalism, and irrational fear of missing out, etc. when the fundamentals are all so cockeyed. That's where I see the mind job mostly. A years-long pumped-up and bloated market has been confused with, and taken for, a healthy market.
My main point being that there have been soooo many saying that the system is rife for a crash for so long now, that it seems incorrect to just point out one person's statements and condemn his warnings for it.
Agreed, and this is pretty much the thrust of Antifragile, btw; we don’t want to get so bent out of shape that we deny ourselves agency to think and act constructively, and outside the box if need be.
I propose that some if not many of the “doomsayers” in this context are attempting to break through an entrenched normalcy bias with a lot of the things they are saying. The following being a very good example I think:
2015, the BRICS checkmate Western finance? -- Sott.net
"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws." Credit Defaut Swap (CDS), mortgage backed security (MDS), bottom-up investment, high frequency trading, naked short sale... these are the kind of...
www.sott.net
A lot of observers and investors noticed the writing on the wall with big movements in QE over seven or eight years ago. And some longer ago than that. They saw that the situation would eventually be untenable, could ultimately lead to hyperinflation, etc. Should they have said nothing then, or since, so that the cycle could run its course? Especially if the financial world is their stock and trade so to say?
Well, I’m thinking a little more long term here. While holding cash (in case of a ‘bank holiday’) or holding gold (as a store of value) may not be “optimal” next to the more short-term and higher returns one might see in a booming market, I suspect that many who invest in the stock market are simply not diversified so as to make themselves resilient should some major downturn take place.
Not sure that’s the whole story though. While there will certainly be a percentage of people who respond negatively and unconstructively to the “crying of wolf” (if that's what it is), there are likely others who become aware that there are wolves in them thar hills. In other words, that there is something to keep strongly in mind about the financial environment going forward. I think what you write assumes that, upon hearing about such warnings, some people won’t diversify, look at other types of investments and stores of value, or just proceed more cautiously (in addition to, as you say, shorting the market and contributing to the very outcome many fear). Its a very complex situation to be sure though!
I think what you say also assumes that the people who have heard Dalio will stop right there and not try to get some other information to either fine tune or look into the warnings for themselves. Not everyone is suddenly going to say “I’m gonna get out of the market because Dalio said so”, or "I am going to short the market because Dalio’s doing it”. I think the responses will run the gambit, and this is where each individual takes responsibility for their own choices of course.
So I see where you’re coming from Carl, but I guess all this poses the question again: at what point do these types of warnings become harmful and counterproductive - versus informative and helpful - given how uninformed much of the population is? I think it may be a tougher question to answer than it may appear. And are these even the right questions?
No new show this week, but we'll be returning next week with a brand new one. In the meantime though, and in case anyone's missed them:
MindMatters: That's the Spirit! The Stoic Philosophy of Pneuma
MindMatters: Living the Good Life - The Stoic Way
MindMatters: That's the Spirit! The Stoic Philosophy of Pneuma
MindMatters: Living the Good Life - The Stoic Way
Just watched the second show on Gurdjieff and I found it entertaining and informative. Reading his books was a tad difficult for me as he was not (in my opinion) the easiest read. You broke him down so well and highlighted his main objectives. Explaining what has happened to his works and the editing that went on highlights why I may have had difficulties.
All in all you all made Gurdjieff much more accessible to me and for that I am very grateful. Thank you all.
All in all you all made Gurdjieff much more accessible to me and for that I am very grateful. Thank you all.