Potential Food and Energy Shortage Across the World

Stock up on thermal clothing that breaths as it may be a long and cold winter within the higher latitudes.

For the production of woolen socks in Europe, the first woolen pipeline from Russia to Germany "Volosyanoy Stream-1" was built It would be funny if it weren't so sad. Since the inhabitants of France, for example, have already begun to line up in huge queues for warm yarn and thermal underwear.

Autumn has prepared an unpleasant surprise for the Germans. "Long pants with leggings underneath, socks, a jacket, a sweater and a cozy blanket... What to wear at home to keep warm"
 
Stock up on thermal clothing that breaths as it may be a long and cold winter within the higher latitudes.
Here I refer to the pot "heater" with candles. I haven't done it, I couldn't say how much good it would do, the idea seemed good to me. Here, in most homes there is no heating because it is a warm climate most of the year, in most of the country. When temperatures drop considerably, one puts on layers and layers of clothes as well. Homes become freezers sometimes.

Here at home, we have heaters that are plugged in, we are used to putting them on for a short time, for 2 main reasons. 1 because they consume a lot of electricity and it is better to keep a low profile with the electric provider other wise the tariff changes and 2, because the change in temperature from one space to another is what sometimes then generates flu symptoms. So it is only very occasionally or when it is too cold.

fwiw
 
Here's a video that discusses the economic reasons for the collapse of society and compares current times with the collapse of the Roman Empire.


Here I refer to the pot "heater" with candles. I haven't done it, I couldn't say how much good it would do, the idea seemed good to me.

I haven't tried terracotta pots yet, however on the coldest nights last winter I took the chill off the air with a tea light candle in a tin can laying on its side on a cake rack.

20220716_193534.jpg
 
Interesting tidbit from The Duran interview with Tim Kirby, an American living in Russia, about food prices in Russia - and hopefully our Russian members can comment with their thoughts/experience.

Tim is an American who lives in Russia and said that food prices have risen significantly over there. He says that they were rising even prior to the conflict and they accelerated once it began - he mentions the figure 30%. He says that this happened despite the large quantity of food the country produces.

Interviewer Mercouris speculated that some of the price rise might be due in part to rising global food prices, and because Russia is a major exporter, food costs at home have to rise otherwise exports will increase and that will cause shortages. He also notes that food and supermarkets aren't state-controlled like energy is.

Another factor he mentions is that at the start of the sanctions, he thinks that people may have rushed out to stock up on particular items which may have caused shortages, visible or not, and this will have to work itself through the supply change before prices fall again.

Kirby also mentions the price of eggs went up significantly. However i read that the price of eggs is can be particularly volatile and so isn't necessarily an accurate gauge. He also talks about eating out being much more expensive.

It was notable to me because even the Western press have reported that, whilst food costs are soaring here, they aren't in Russia. However according to Kirby - who says he's middle class - prices have risen noticeably. Obviously the West is waging a multifaceted war on Russia, and so were the country less self-sufficient and resilient, the situation could be many, many times worse.
 
Tim is an American who lives in Russia and said that food prices have risen significantly over there. He says that they were rising even prior to the conflict and they accelerated once it began - he mentions the figure 30%. He says that this happened despite the large quantity of food the country produces.
Here are some stats (price change since the beginning of the year) taken from a fresh Russian article citing Rosstat:
  • Eggs -14.1%
  • Sunflower oil +9.61%
  • Sugar +26.62%
  • Buckwheat +3.97%
  • Rice +28,17%
  • Beef +14.46%
  • Pork -0.2%
  • Chickens -0.94%
The stats are average and it's possible that prices raised higher in different places. I buy my food mostly at local market and prices there raised roughly by 15-20%. The main drivers of prices seem to be uncertainty and greed. It's not just food, almost everything became more expensive after Feb. 24 in Russia.
 
Some of the food items constantly in need of replenishment at this local. Just another reflection of what others have observed.
Milk
Eggs
Macaroni
Cereals
Cereal Bars (large volumes)
Bread
Items of Mexico (food specialties)
Some Cheese products
Tomato based products
Alternative milk products (Almond milk which has a competitive edge via the current cost of milk)
Meat (Pork, Hamburger meat, hot dogs, Turkey products, etc.)

Labor shortages are damaging Americans' quality of life. Immigrants can help. - Niskanen Center
October 13, 2022 Snip:
Since July 2021, job openings in the U.S. have reached a historic high, clocking in at over 10 million per month.. Competition for employees is also higher than ever before, with nearly two job openings per unemployed American. This has led to labor shortages that have triggered a myriad of tangible effects on American daily life, including inflation and widespread delays in receiving products and services.

As the first installment in a series on labor shortages–specifically, how immigration can be part of a powerful solution–this piece will explore the most visible repercussions of our current predicament on Americans’ everyday lives.

Shopping

  • Labor shortages in warehouses and manufacturing plants have increased the likelihood that Americans’ favorite items to buy online are now out of stock.
    • Before the pandemic, online shoppers encountered an out-of-stock item once every 200 pages. By early 2022, that number had jumped 235 percent to once every 59 pages.
  • Before the pandemic, Amazon Prime members were increasingly accustomed to a one-day delivery standard. Now, with far fewer warehouse workers and delivery drivers, this convenience is becoming less tenable..
  • Employee shortages have hit grocery stores particularly hard.
    • Harris Teeter, a South Atlantic supermarket chain, has shortened operating hours at nearly all 250+ stores to compensate for the employee shortage.
    • While typically, a grocery store may have 5-10 percent of its items out of stock at any given time, in early 2022, that figure hovered at 15 percent. So, in addition to rising prices, American families face empty shelves and increased difficulty finding the foods they usually buy.
  • Moreover, worker shortages have forced some CVS and Walgreens stores to close on weekends or implement lunchtime closures. These changes could particularly harm working-class Americans who need to pick up medication yet cannot miss work to do so.

And so it begins!

Two of the largest supermarkets in America are merging
Fri October 14, 2022 New York CNN Business —
Kroger announced Friday that it plans to buy Albertsons in a nearly $25 billion deal that could change the US retail industry and impact how millions of customers buy their groceries.

The deal, which is expected to close in 2024, would combine two of the largest supermarket chains in the country and create one of its largest private employers. The two companies have a combined 710,000 workers – most of them unionized in an industry with low union rates – nearly 5,000 stores and more than $200 billion in sales. The companies say they reach 85 million households.

The retail industry has consolidated in recent years, and merging would give the companies greater scale to fend off competition from Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT) and other retail giants. Traditional supermarkets have been pressured by these companies and others – discount chains such as Dollar General (DG) and Aldi, warehouse clubs like Costco (COST), and online grocers.

McMullen said in a statement Friday.

If the deal is completed, it would be one of the largest mergers in US retail history – dwarfing Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods in 2017 for $13.7 billion. The company would become the third largest retail chain in America by sales. Its combined market share in the $1.4 trillion grocery industry would be 13.5%, according to Morgan Stanley, making it the second largest grocer behind Walmart’s 15.5% share.

The move also comes as companies battle higher costs and food inflation reaches its highest level in decades. Prices at grocery stores continued to soar last month. The food at home index, a proxy for grocery store prices, increased 0.7% in September from the month prior and 13% over the last year.

Kroger said the deal would benefit consumers and it will use half a billion dollars in cost savings from the merger to invest in lower prices. Albertsons is known for having higher prices than Kroger and analysts say Kroger may try to lower the chain’s prices.

Kroger (KR) will buy Albertsons for $34.10 a share — a roughly 30% premium above the grocery chain’s average share price over the course of the past month. Shares of Kroger (KR) slid 5% in early trading Friday, while Albertsons dropped 7%.

The two companies operate dozens of grocery chains. Kroger operates Ralphs, Harris Teeter, Dillons, Fred Meyer and others, while Albertsons owns Safeway and Vons. The companies said they will spin off nearly 400 stores to form a new rival in an effort to gain antitrust clearance.

Analysts expect some store closures if the deal goes through and also say it will be a significant hurdle to pass antitrust scrutiny.

“A deal of this size that has a direct impact on consumers would face significant scrutiny from regulators and take a long time period to be approved,” Joseph Feldman, an analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, said.

Consumer watchdogs, unions, and Democrats have already come out strongly against the deal. They say it would harm consumers by raising prices and driving out competition. It could also spur a new wave of consolidation in the industry among smaller companies attempting to compete.

Sen. Bernie Sanders called it a “absolute disaster” and called on the Biden administration to reject the deal. The American Economic Liberties Project, an anti-monopoly organization, said the “merger would be disastrous for market competition, small businesses, and especially – consumers’ pockets.”

FTC chair Lina Khan is critic of corporate consolidation, and the regulator has blocked large retail mergers in the past, including Staples’ attempts to combine with Office Depot.

The FTC is currently looking into anti-competitive practices in the grocery industry and requested information last year from Kroger and others on the causes of empty shelves and surging prices in the United States.

Last Updated: Oct. 12, 2022 By Zoe Han
With inflation at a 40-year-high and fears of recession mounting, families tell MarketWatch how they are cutting back
Stephanie Lane no longer makes big family dinners.

Lane, 44, lives with her husband, an art director, and four children in Harrisburg, Pa. A few years back, Lane quit her job as a nurse to take care of her kids, including one child who has a disability. The family now lives on her husband’s income.

Making ends meet has become more difficult as prices have surged, she said, with their household of six living on $65,000 a year. With the yearly rate of inflation at 8.3% in August, every single dollar counts. Families with children are now in “survival mode,” Lane said.

“Rising food costs almost ruined the idea of the family dinner,” Lane told MarketWatch. “You can’t just go out and buy these massive amounts of ingredients — those big chickens and turkeys, and big meat loaves. All of the fixings. The cost of it is just too much.”

With inflation at a 40-year high, households are cutting back. Food inflation hit 11.4% in August, the highest since 1979, as supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages take their toll.

Lane misses big family meals. “That was something that we really enjoyed,” she said. One reason she no longer makes big family dinners is she found herself throwing away excess food. Her weekly grocery bill is now $40 versus $70 a year ago, partly helped by last year’s child tax credit.

Instead, Lane serves it dining-hall style, where she writes the menu selection on a blackboard and lets them choose. She and her husband make smaller portions for themselves after the kids finish. That could include leftovers.

It’s a balance between what her kids like and what they need. While her daughters love fruits and vegetables, she said her son has gone back to pizza, chicken nuggets, mac and cheese and chicken patty sandwiches. They are his comfort foods.

Lane’s family is not alone. American consumers are feeling the pinch as interest rates continue to rise. Around two-thirds of consumers (64%) said they were worried about their ability to buy food at least once in the past month, according to a recent LendingTree survey.

Last month, MarketWatch asked readers via Twitter TWTR, 0.88% how they’ve adjusted their grocery shopping. Of the 514 who voted, 24% reported shopping at cheaper stores, 26% said they were buying less meat or produce, 7.6% said they were using coupons, and another 40% had not changed anything — yet.

Inflation hits lower-income families first

Economists say that the impact of inflation could move up the income ladder. Lower-income households are being hit first and hardest, experts say, as they spend most of their disposable income on essential bills such as groceries, gas and utilities.

Many lower-income parents report changing their eating habits, substituting meat with cheaper proteins such as beans. What’s more, 20 million American households, largely low-income, are struggling to pay their utility bills.

Scott Brave, head of economic analytics for consumer insights and data company Morning Consult, told MarketWatch that low-income families started cutting back at the start of the year, while middle-income households started pulling back discretionary spending this past summer.

The Lane household found some small joys elsewhere. Lane and her 4-year-old daughter, Josie, look up simple, cheap recipes under $5. Since the little one loves cooking, the two will experiment with the recipes together. If a recipe is a hit, it’s added to the family’s food list.

What started as a cost-saving measure became a special family moment that they recorded with photos and videos. “She loves it,” Lane said. “She gets so proud. If we didn’t have that type of need to do that, she wouldn’t have the ability to make her little $5 meals.”

The Lane family has also cut down on dining out. With one meal for six in a restaurant, “there goes our whole grocery budget for the entire week,” she said. Eating between meals was also curtailed due to rising costs. “We feel it everywhere. We feel it with snacks,” Lane added.

Lane waits for items to go on sale, and has managed to find cheaper groceries by shopping around. But it reached a point where everything became too expensive, and she finally realized her family needed the help of food banks.

“I know we’re not the only ones who are in this class, this working class that has become the working poor,” she said. “We basically were in that group where we don’t qualify for government help for food, but we qualify for help for food through the food bank.”

As for her son, “he’s reverted to not trying things anymore because I don’t make different things anymore,” Lane said. But she said it’s a tradeoff she has to make to get the most out of what she’s spending — and make sure her children never go hungry.

“I want them to have a meal that they enjoy,” she added. “And I want them to go to sleep with full stomachs.”

Climate and Food data via David DuByne

October 11, 20225:15 AM ET Snip:
TUNIS, Tunisia — Tunisians have been hit with soaring food prices and shortages of basic staples in recent weeks, threatening to turn simmering discontent in the North African country — the cradle of the Arab Spring protests — into larger turmoil.

Sugar, vegetable oil, rice and even bottled water periodically disappear from supermarkets and grocery stores. People stand in line for hours for these food essentials that have long been subsidized and are now increasingly available in rations only. When they do appear on the shelves, many people cannot afford to pay the staggering price for them.

"I came to shop and found people fighting to buy and the prices were very high," said shopper Amina Hamdi, 63, despairing at trying to buy basic goods.

"It is not possible to live without food," said Aicha during a recent shopping trip to the fish and meat market in Tunis. "We can live without furniture, construction material, but we have to eat." She only gave her first name for fear of persecution by police for speaking out.

The government has blamed speculators, black market hoarders and the war in Ukraine, but economic experts say the government's own budget crisis, and its inability to negotiate a long-sought loan from the International Monetary Fund, have added to Tunisia's troubles.

Fights sometimes break out at food market queues, and scattered protests and sporadic clashes with police over rising prices and shortages have occurred around the country. In a suburb of the capital, Tunis, a young itinerant fruit vendor recently killed himself after police seized the scales he used to weigh his wares.

Skipping down:

Inflation has reached a record rate of 9.1%, the highest in three decades, according to the National Institute of Statistics.

The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) added a hit by increasing bank fees and interest rates, hindering access to consumer loans.

In Douar Hicher, an impoverished suburb on the outskirts of Tunis considered a barometer of popular discontent, hundreds of people took to the streets at night last month to denounce the deterioration of their living conditions.

With cries of "work, freedom, dignity" — the flagship slogan of the 2010-2011 revolution — demonstrators blocked the town's main artery by setting fire to tires, braving the police who sprayed tear gas to disperse them.

1665769648680.png
 
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Interesting tidbit from The Duran interview with Tim Kirby, an American living in Russia, about food prices in Russia - and hopefully our Russian members can comment with their thoughts/experience.

Tim is an American who lives in Russia and said that food prices have risen significantly over there. He says that they were rising even prior to the conflict and they accelerated once it began - he mentions the figure 30%. He says that this happened despite the large quantity of food the country produces.

Interviewer Mercouris speculated that some of the price rise might be due in part to rising global food prices, and because Russia is a major exporter, food costs at home have to rise otherwise exports will increase and that will cause shortages. He also notes that food and supermarkets aren't state-controlled like energy is.

Another factor he mentions is that at the start of the sanctions, he thinks that people may have rushed out to stock up on particular items which may have caused shortages, visible or not, and this will have to work itself through the supply change before prices fall again.

Kirby also mentions the price of eggs went up significantly. However i read that the price of eggs is can be particularly volatile and so isn't necessarily an accurate gauge. He also talks about eating out being much more expensive.

It was notable to me because even the Western press have reported that, whilst food costs are soaring here, they aren't in Russia. However according to Kirby - who says he's middle class - prices have risen noticeably. Obviously the West is waging a multifaceted war on Russia, and so were the country less self-sufficient and resilient, the situation could be many, many times worse.
I think he made an important point right away, that Russia, with their SMO had to show restraint, or more to the point, follow the legal and lawful defintions of their interventions. There was to be no American/NATO style, going in, all guns blazing, with no regard for civilian losses. By doing this, they were able to keep their allies on side. India, China, Turkey, Saudia Arabia, among others needed to see this to stay on side. And he said that this will pay dividends down the road, not just in the short term. I think this restraint, if you want to call it that, has been somewhat frustrating for some, but it was necessary for this to succeed, long term. That being said, Russia has still had amazing success so far even with their self imposed restraint.
 




Topline

French dairy and food giant Danone on Friday announced plans to exit the Russian market, following the likes of Pepsi, Coca-Cola, McDonald's and other global food brands to exit the country amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.


Danone logo or sign on top of an old building...

Dairy and food giant Danone expects to take a nearly $1 billion hit as it unwinds its business ... [+] LightRocket via Getty Images

Key Facts

In a press release, Danone said it has begun the process of transferring control of its essential dairy and plant-based business to an as-yet unnamed entity in Russia.

The company said it expects the exit will cost the company €1 billion ($975 million).

So far this year, Danone said its Russian operations accounted for 5% of the company’s net sales, the company added.

Explaining the decision, Danone said it believes the move is the “ best option to ensure long-term local business continuity” for its workers, customers and partners in Russia.

Key Background

Danone joins several other multinational food and beverage companies that have either exited Russia or have been forced to scale down their business in the country, owing to a bevy of sanctions against the country following its invasion of neighboring Ukraine. Last month, PepsiCo stopped manufacturing its popular soda brands—including Pepsi-Cola, Mountain Dew, Mirinda and 7Up—in Russia. Its top rival, Coca-Cola, has also stopped producing and selling its marquee brands in the country and its bottler in the region is only working with local brands. Swiss food and beverage major Nestle has also suspended sales of its popular global brands like KitKat and Nesquik in Russia. Both Pepsi and Nestle, however, continue to sell products deemed as daily essentials such as milk, baby formula and baby food. Other major food brands like McDonald's and Starbucks have fully exited Russia after shutting all their locations across the country.

Tangent

Danone is the second major multinational to announce its exit from Russia this week, following a similar announcement by Japanese carmaker Nissan. In its announcement, Nissan said it was selling off its Russian unit to a state-owned entity for a token amount of €1 ($0.98). Other major carmakers such as Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and General Motors have all suspended manufacturing in, and imports into, Russia. Other companies that have exited or halted their business operations in Russia include apparel giants like Nike, H&M, Uniqlo and Adidas, among others. Several tech giants like Apple, Google, Microsoft, Samsung and Sony’s Playstation have suspended hardware sales and blocked access to their digital storefronts in Russia.

 
Interesting tidbit from The Duran interview with Tim Kirby, an American living in Russia, about food prices in Russia - and hopefully our Russian members can comment with their thoughts/experience.

Tim is an American who lives in Russia and said that food prices have risen significantly over there. He says that they were rising even prior to the conflict and they accelerated once it began - he mentions the figure 30%. He says that this happened despite the large quantity of food the country produces.

Interviewer Mercouris speculated that some of the price rise might be due in part to rising global food prices, and because Russia is a major exporter, food costs at home have to rise otherwise exports will increase and that will cause shortages. He also notes that food and supermarkets aren't state-controlled like energy is.

Another factor he mentions is that at the start of the sanctions, he thinks that people may have rushed out to stock up on particular items which may have caused shortages, visible or not, and this will have to work itself through the supply change before prices fall again.

Kirby also mentions the price of eggs went up significantly. However i read that the price of eggs is can be particularly volatile and so isn't necessarily an accurate gauge. He also talks about eating out being much more expensive.

It was notable to me because even the Western press have reported that, whilst food costs are soaring here, they aren't in Russia. However according to Kirby - who says he's middle class - prices have risen noticeably. Obviously the West is waging a multifaceted war on Russia, and so were the country less self-sufficient and resilient, the situation could be many, many times worse.

Here are some stats (price change since the beginning of the year) taken from a fresh Russian article citing Rosstat:
  • Eggs -14.1%
  • Sunflower oil +9.61%
  • Sugar +26.62%
  • Buckwheat +3.97%
  • Rice +28,17%
  • Beef +14.46%
  • Pork -0.2%
  • Chickens -0.94%
The stats are average and it's possible that prices raised higher in different places. I buy my food mostly at local market and prices there raised roughly by 15-20%. The main drivers of prices seem to be uncertainty and greed. It's not just food, almost everything became more expensive after Feb. 24 in Russia.

I think he made an important point right away, that Russia, with their SMO had to show restraint, or more to the point, follow the legal and lawful defintions of their interventions. There was to be no American/NATO style, going in, all guns blazing, with no regard for civilian losses. By doing this, they were able to keep their allies on side. India, China, Turkey, Saudia Arabia, among others needed to see this to stay on side. And he said that this will pay dividends down the road, not just in the short term. I think this restraint, if you want to call it that, has been somewhat frustrating for some, but it was necessary for this to succeed, long term. That being said, Russia has still had amazing success so far even with their self imposed restraint.

All of the above is in line with what Putin has said in his speeches/statements; that the increased inflation started globally well before the recent Ukraine crises and even before corona hit. He also made it rather clear that Corona just accelerated the situation. That is an important point I think. Putin also made it pretty clear (and no secret) that Russia has the same problem and that the inflation is even worse there, although it seems to be on a recovering course (in contrast to the west!). Putin also stressed that the idea that the recent Ukraine crisis is the cause of it isn't true and that the elites just found another perfect scapegoat in blaming Russia/Putin for it, although clearly, that isn't true.
 
More trouble ahead for European citizens

From Telegram Channel RT News
❗Beijing Halts Gas Exports Ahead Of Winter — Report

Chinese gas companies PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC will stop reselling liquefied natural gas to buyers in Europe and Asia in order to secure their own supplies, Bloomberg reports.

The move comes amid predictions of a harsh and cold winter for energy-deprived Europe, which finds itself suffering a cost-of-living crisis.

Subscribe to RT

China To Stop Reselling LNG To Europe
Chinese state-owned energy giants have been recently told by authorities to stop reselling liquefied natural gas.
In recent months, Chinese LNG importers have been selling their excess inventories to Europe.
Europe’s LNG supply could dwindle just ahead of the winter heating season.
Gas prices in Europe have dropped from record highs and hit on Monday the lowest level in three months after the EU is reportedly looking to introduce measures to limit the market volatility of the benchmark European natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub. According to a draft document that Bloomberg News has seen, the European Commission is set to propose measures to limit extreme price spikes in derivatives trading.

Moreover, gas storage sites across the EU were 92% full as of October 16, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. The storage sites are being filled faster than the EU and many individual members had initially planned. Although gas in storage alone will not be enough to see an economy such as Germany’s through the winter, the faster-than-planned gas storage filling has eased somewhat supply concerns, for now.
 
Last August, the Sri Lankan government urged their citizens not to overcrowd the country's fuel stations, as the process of distributing fuel to vehicles would be implemented according to the QR code system.

The QR code is now in place and a similar system may be used in Europe when problems start to arise due to the lack of energy sources such as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

 

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