Potential Food and Energy Shortage Across the World

Joe said:
You may have noticed that "inflation" started with the "energy crisis". Energy production/access is directly linked to "inflation". Despite half of its nuke reactors being "down" for "maintenance", France is perceived to be better positioned than all other EU nations because of its large number of reactors. Hence low "inflation".
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I just read this Korybko article, which was an excellent piece for someone like me who doesn't really know much about the dynamics in Africa.

oneworld.press

The Latest Round Of Chadian Unrest Poses The Greatest Challenge To France’s “Sphere Of Influence”

The fall of Chad's French-backed military junta would be a watershed event not just for its region, but for the entire continent as a whole. In fact, it could even ultimately deal a deathblow to the neo-imperial hegemonic concept of “Françafrique”.
oneworld.press

According to the piece, France's nuclear energy hinges on its ability to maintain a stable, pliant governments in Chad, and also Niger, which is the source of France's uranium.

Unlike in the CAR, Mali, and Burkina Faso where France was basically powerless to stop the erosion of its hegemonic influence, Paris might seriously consider pushing back in Chad if a similar such scenario suddenly became credible. That’s because the military basis for “Françafrique” would be instantly shattered if it lost control of that geostrategic country, thus possibly catalyzing a rapid chain of events that could result in it losing control of its military bastion in Niger, which also supplies its uranium.

I wrote about that last-mentioned landlocked country’s importance in an analytical op-ed for RT all the way back in 2014, which is more relevant than ever as France considers relying more on Nigerien-supplied uranium for powering its nuclear reactors in the face of Europe’s self-inflicted energy crisis. The cascading consequences of “losing” Chad could thus lead to it also “losing” Niger as well, and with it reliable access to the power-generating resource upon which its economic disproportionately depends.

This scenario forecast, however, further reinforces the prediction that Paris won’t passively sit back and let the first domino fall in N’Djamena. More than likely, France will fully support its proxies’ armed forces there no matter how violently they react to the latest round of unrest, all of which was entirely avoidable had the so-called promised democratic transition unfolded as planned. The only reason it was delayed was because France knew that sincerely going through with this would weaken its influence.

Instead of accepting the gradual erosion of its hegemonic influence and responsibly adapting to its inevitable role as that country’s equal partner that must therefore treat its counterpart with the respect that it deserves as a sovereign state, France sought to cling to fading neo-colonial role there. This ended up being extremely counterproductive in practice since it provoked the latest round of unrest that now threatens to deal a deathblow to “Françafrique” if it isn’t forcefully stopped.

Therein lies the dilemma for France since it’s now being pressured into “mission creep” in Chad, at least behind the scenes for now. It can’t “lose” that country out of fear that neighboring Niger upon which it already disproportionately relies for uranium will be next. The emerging policy options will therefore either be to support an ultra-despotic French-backed dictatorship; orchestrate a French-backed military coup to trick protesters for the time being into thinking that they succeeded; or a direct intervention.

France’s failure to succeed with either of these options could lead to it losing full control of the military-strategic dynamics across “Françafrique”, thus resulting in that part of the continent being able to finally complete its decolonization processes exactly as Russia promised to support it with doing in July. So as not to be misunderstood, this outcome isn’t imminent since Paris will probably push back as much as possible even to the point of a direct intervention, but that just shows how high the stakes are in Chad.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1584348034778865666
euroweeklynews.com

Fire crews deployed to tackle massive blaze at Wilbur Ellis fertilizer plant near Moses Lake, Washington

Fire crews have been deployed to tackle a massive blaze at the Wilbur Ellis fertilizer plant near Moses Lake in Washington state
euroweeklynews.com euroweeklynews.com

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The coming new normal (when TSHTF), in a world "they" created.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584154922311831552

America’s Diesel Shortage Will Exact a Heavy Toll​

Bloomberg October 22, 2022 at 2:00 PM GMT+2
The timing couldn’t be worse for Joe Biden as winter approaches and a recession appears inevitable.
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Probable repeat:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584297234849730561
 

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KS said:
A pretty funny situation in my local supermarket; manufactured price inflation vs free market:

10th of October
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11th of October
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24th of October
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Well, no extra prices up here in Sweden, on the contrary.

The other week, I bought the above type of canned meat in Stockholm Suburbia... It was a whopping 4.60 €. (51 SEK) or almost 22 zloty / PLN. It used to be around 38 SEK / 16.45 PLN / 3.40 € a year ago.

But our "cheapest" food store chain (MatDax; 3 suburbia stores) in Stockholm, is a really sneaky one. They do sell batches of things for sometimes really excellent prices - BUT everything else, is nowadays waaaay overpriced, sometimes up to 50+% more than in other, rather expensive food stores (such as ICA Nära).

For example: If you pay 17 SEK (1.54 €) for 500 gram mustard in a local, more expensive food store, the "cheap" food chain wants a whopping 28 SEK (2.6 €). Or big, round Knäckebröd; they want 42 SEK, instead of the normal 28 SEK. These are huge differences, not just little "adjustments".

So, that is how the "cheap" food chain in the poorer suburbs, take back in the margins.

Pretty nasty...
 
XPan said:
Well, no extra prices up here in Sweden, on the contrary.
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In the case of canned foods like those that I've taken photos of, I suspect that the producers or shops are inflating prices, the same as with gas prices, which gave Orlen (Polish national oil refiner and petrol retailer) huge profits (Orlen is owned by the Polish state, but also Black Rock and Vanguard). There was a case with Biedronka (Jeronimo Martins) in Poland a few months ago:

Biedronka raises prices sharply before lowering prices thanks to 0 percent VAT. What about other stores?​

The owner of the Biedronka chain explains that the raise operation of January 24 is nothing new, because stores in the conditions of inflation make upward adjustments in prices every Monday. Other chains are doing the same, and despite the increases, Biedronka offers one of the lowest prices on the market, and as part of the promotion, customers gain well over PLN 100 million annually.

Biedronka's customers were shocked by the fact that the price increases relate to the most popular products: chicken breast fillet (portion) went up by almost a zloty, and milk in cartons by 0.10 PLN. And toasted bread up to 50 gr. Percentage of these increases look even worse - they are double-digit in relation to prices from Sunday.

However, customers' suspicions of using a marketing trick according to the rule: raise now to lower soon are in part the result of market practices that many stores use in connection with seasonal price cuts or actions such as Black Friday, which customers are already becoming aware of.

Fortunately, despite high inflation, the margin for such speculation is quite narrow. Customers do not rush to the shelves and buy goods, as it was in the times of the PRL economy of shortage and (few) years without inflation, when the shelves were filled modestly. Competition is an even greater barrier: stores that would push themselves too far forward in the price race will quickly lose customers, because they will go to cheaper competition.
Price increases in stores: system brakes

Yes, such sharp increases would be possible if competitors agreed that they would act with prices at the same time. However, this is a prohibited market practice and in order to prevent such a collusion, the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection is watching over the office, which has already announced that it will monitor prices very carefully during this period.

All in all, healthy market mechanisms protect us from speculators who would like a market panic to get rich quick. In this context, the idea of introducing regulated prices for basic products is absurd. Introducing free-market tools to mechanisms from a completely different "economy" - command-and-control is like throwing a grenade into a gunpowder warehouse. The operation of lowering VAT is different - it is a textbook example of how the state can intervene in the free market in unfavorable circumstances requiring such intervention (inflation), without destroying its mechanisms.
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strefabiznesu-pl.translate.goog

Biedronka mocno podwyższa ceny tuż przed obniżeniem cen dzięki VAT 0 procent. A inne sklepy?

strefabiznesu-pl.translate.goog strefabiznesu-pl.translate.goog

I'm glad that the customers still have the ability to not buy overpriced products, but such nasty practices for sure will be used in the near future in a more coordinated way. As for food, the meat went up quite substantially. 0,5kg of beef now costs more than 40 PLN, in almost perfect alignment with inflation figures.
 
Joe a dit :
« Vous avez peut-être remarqué que "l'inflation" a commencé par la "crise énergétique". La production/l'accès à l'énergie est directement lié à l'"inflation". Bien que la moitié de ses réacteurs nucléaires soient "en panne" pour "maintenance", la France est perçue comme mieux placée que tous les autres pays de l'UE en raison de son grand nombre de réacteurs. D'où une faible "inflation. »

Pour avoir le contrôle total de la production électrique d’origine nucléaire, l’Etat français a racheté l’ensemble des actions d’EDF qu’il ne possédait pas (16%) le 4 oct 2022. La moitié des réacteurs sont à l’arrêt pour des raisons de maintenance. La crise énergétique est là…
Cela fait beaucoup de coïncidences qui semblent conduire a des lendemains moins favorables, alors la France devrait bientôt se voir infligée une inflation tout aussi importante que celle de ses voisins européens.

Joe said:
"You may have noticed that "inflation" started with the "energy crisis". Energy production/access is directly related to "inflation". Although half of its nuclear reactors are "down" for "maintenance", France is perceived to be in a better position than all other EU countries because of its large number of reactors. Hence, low "inflation."

In order to have full control of nuclear power generation, the French state bought back all of the EDF shares it did not own (16%) on 4 Oct 2022. Half of the reactors are shut down for maintenance. The energy crisis is here...
That's a lot of coincidences that seem to lead to a less favorable future, so France should soon see itself inflicted with an inflation as important as that of its European neighbors.
 
Regarding the current natural gas price drop, there's an article on SOTT, also posted below.

From my understanding of the situation, it's in part because of the unseasonably warm autumn; the fact that Europe rushed to fill its stocks pushed up the price, but now that storage facilities are near full, demand has dropped, and so has the market price.

However, whilst some outlets are saying consumers will also see lower costs for energy, others are saying that, as happened with the previous market price drop, it will not be passed onto consumers because suppliers work 'months ahead' (something like that), and, since they know that gas prices are sure to rise again, they will not pass on these saving to consumers.

It's also likely that the reason they're not passing on savings is because these companies are profit driven to the point of being wholly corrupt, and governments let them get away with it (likely because they're working in league with them).

www.sott.net

Europe's gas prices fall as storage facilities reach capacity and mild autumn weather - prices remain exceptionally high

Europe's gas prices have fallen below €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since mid-June, as mild autumn weather tame demand and storage facilities reach near-total capacity. At the end of Monday, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF),...
www.sott.net www.sott.net

Europe's gas prices fall as storage facilities reach capacity and mild autumn weather - prices remain exceptionally high​




Jorge Liboreiro
Euronews
Tue, 25 Oct 2022 11:25 UTC






gas pipeline europe
© Jean-Francois Badias/AP
Europe's gas prices are slowly decreasing as warm weather tames consumer demand.
Europe's gas prices have fallen below €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since mid-June, as mild autumn weather tame demand and storage facilities reach near-total capacity.

At the end of Monday, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe's leading trading hub, futures contract for November closed at €99.17 per megawatt-hour (MWh).

Tuesday morning showed a similar trend, with prices hovering around €95 MWh.

While prices remain exceptionally high, the news offers some relief for consumers under financial stress.


Comment: That would only be true if the companies were to pass on the savings, however back in May they didn't pass on the savings, because, they said, it was clear there were still going to be shortages in the future. They did, however, make bumper profits, which were passed on to investors.


Wholesale prices directly impact the retail price that households and companies pay every month. These final bills also contain extra costs related to network maintenance, taxes and operational fees.

The last time gas prices fell below the €100 MWh mark was mid-June.

Prices then rose at a pronounced rate as governments rushed to fill underground gas storage and Russia's manipulation of supplies fuelled speculation.


Comment: Russia hasn't been 'manipulating' supplies, they don't need to, the world is desperate for its gas, on the contrary, despite the West's terrorist attacks on its its investments, such as the billion dollar Nord Stream pipelines, it continues to supply gas to anyone willing to do business with them.


The TTF broke all-time records when it reached €349 MWh in late August.

After that, prices began to decrease gradually.

The EU's average storage capacity is now at 93%, which means governments do not need to buy as much backup gas as they did in previous months.


Comment: Not yet, no, however some estimates put these storage facilities as having little more than 90 days supply. And that's assuming there's no increase in demand due to harsh weather, it also doesn't allow any room for their economies to grow.


At the same time, industrial production and consumer consumption are being constrained by high energy bills, leading to a dip in demand and a consequent fall in prices.

It's unclear how long the drop in gas prices will last.

EU officials fear a colder-than-usual winter will stoke demand for electricity and heating, push prices to unsustainable highs and aggravate the economic recession.


Comment: And a colder than usual winter is just what forecasters have warned of. Lest we forget that this is all Europe's choosing, Russia hasn't cut them off, they sanctioned themselves out of the market.


Futures contracts for the upcoming months showed prices well above the €100 MWh threshold.

Gas prices at the Dutch TTF

gas prices europe 2022

Futures contracts, November 2022 € megawatt-hour
A Flourish chart

The energy crisis remains high on the EU's agenda.

Last week, the issue of price caps took centre stage at the European Council in Brussels.

At the end of the meeting, leaders gave the European Commission the go-ahead to put forward a mechanism to curb extreme cases of speculation and volatility at the TTF.

However, this instrument will not be a broad price cap, as some EU countries have demanded, and will instead act as an emergency ceiling.

"The time has come," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. "It is important to move with a clear signal that we are willing to be reliable partners on the market but not at any price anymore."

In parallel, the Commission is working on a separate, distinct trading hub only for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The executive argues the TTF is overly influenced by the ups and downs of pipeline gas flows.
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It occurred to me that in terms of food and energy security, Europe isn't much better off than it has been over the past thousand years and more; their survival is still largely at the mercy of the weather, and the citizen-serfs are at the mercy of their pathological lords.

Regarding gas storage, the situation in the Czech republic for example:
So far, the Czech government has secured 3 billion cubic meters of alternate annual gas capacity through a liquified natural gas terminal in the Netherlands. However, that covers only one-third of what it used to import from Russia. That's why it's important for the country to stock up now — reserves are at nearly 90% capacity, Czech Industry Minister Josef Síkela said at a press conference in early October.

But that will only last for "a couple of months, half of the winter maybe, depending on how harsh the weather will be and a bunch of other circumstances," said Švejnar. He added that a new complication is OPEC+'s recent cut of oil production which could drive gas and electricity prices even higher.
Blankets for schoolchildren as energy bills set to triple: The Czech Republic is paying a terrible price for Europe's gas sanctions -- Sott.net
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Added, this article might be of interest: US nitrogen exports jump as Europe scrambles for fertilizer, UN warns of 'future shortage crisis' -- Sott.net

[...]European buyers are outbidding domestic buyers in both the United States and other exporters like Indonesia and Malaysia
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Does that mean US farmers will have to do without?
European farmers are not able to stock up on fertilizer as much as they should ahead of planting next spring due to high prices and tight supply, said Pekka Pesonen, secretary-general of European farming group Copa-Cogeca.
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Which would make it the 2nd (?) growing season where Europe's farmers have had to make do with less fertilizer, likely resulting in lower yield.
 
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An article from GlobalResearch looking at the food crises from a Biotech/GMO industry perspective: Engineered Food Crisis: Agri Biotech Motivated by Monopoly Control and “Sacred GMO Cash Cow”

...agri firms like Bayer, Syngenta (ChemChina) and Corteva cynically regard current circumstances as an opportunity to promote their agenda and seek commercialisation of unregulated and improperly tested genetically engineered (GE) technologies.

These companies have long promoted the false narrative that their hybrid seeds and their GE seeds, along with their agrichemicals, are essential for feeding a growing global population. This agenda is orchestrated by vested interests and career scientists – many of whom long ago sold their objectivity for biotech money – lobby groups and disgraced politicians and journalists.
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...dirty tricks and smears are par for the course because the agri biotech emperor has been shown to have no clothes time and again – GE is a failing, often detrimental technology in search of a problem.
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Mute Schimpf, food campaigner at Friends of the Earth Europe, says:

“Big biotech’s strategy is to apply for wide patents that would also cover plants which naturally present the same genetic characteristics as the GMOs they engineered. They will be lining their pockets from farmers and plant breeders, who in turn will have a restricted access to what they can grow and work with.”

For instance, GMWatch notes that Corteva holds a patent for a process modifying the genome of a cell using the CRISPR technique and claims the intellectual property rights to any cells, seeds and plants that include the same genetic information, whether in broccoli, maize, soy, rice, wheat, cotton, barley or sunflower.

The agri biotech sector is engaged in a corporate hijack of agriculture while attempting to portray itself as being involved in some kind of service to humanity.
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The article then goes on to detail the attempts by Bayer to start growing GM mustard in India.

The bottom line is government collusion with global agribusiness, which is trying to hide in the background, despite much talk of Professor Pental and his team at Delhi University being independent developers of GM mustard (DMH 11).

GM mustard presents an opportunity to make various herbicide tolerant (HT) mustard hybrids using India’s best germ plasm, which would be an irresistible money spinner for the seed and chemical manufacturers.
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Until the mid-1990s, India was virtually self-sufficient in edible oils. Then import tariffs were reduced, leading to an influx of cheap (subsidised) edible oil imports that domestic farmers could not compete with. This effectively devastated the home-grown edible oils sector and served the interests of palm oil growers and US grain and agriculture commodity company Cargill.

It came as little surprise that in 2013 India’s then Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar accused US companies of derailing the nation’s oil seeds production programme.

Whether in India, Europe or elsewhere, the industry’s agenda is to use GE technology to secure intellectual property rights over all seeds (and chemical inputs) and thus gain total control over food and farming. And given what has been set out here – they seek to achieve this by all means necessary.
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