Potential Food and Energy Shortage Across the World

Just some data points for those curious. I follow a Youtube channel called Just A Few Acres Farm, pretty good information on how to run a small livestock farm in an ethical way. Anyway, they sell direct to consumer and now the price of their eggs is below supermarket prices. They sell at $5 a dozen, which could be good news for them. The only issue being feed costs for his layer hens, which continue to rise.

There’s another channel, Baker’s Green Acres who raises Mangalitsa pigs in a holistic way. Anyway, it’s becoming reasonable for him to sell milk now because people will possibly pay prices that make the labor worthwhile to small farms. He mentioned something about 10 bucks a gallon. Good news for smaller farms.
 
Trends in prices for agricultural products

Pig333 is a site that is dedicated to the topic pork and pig production from an economic perspective. They have an article that shows the development in prices over the last year.
333 Survey: Forecasts were low for a record year for hog prices
They write:
... in most of the European Union countries analyzed (Spain, Germany, France, Poland, Italy, and Romania), the prices expected by 333 users in February when the survey was conducted, were clearly lower than the actual price in 2022. Users in Russia, Brazil, Belgium, and Mexico were the most optimistic, forecasting values above the actual average price. Users in Russia, Argentina, and Brazil were the closest in their prediction to the actual average price.

It was difficult to foresee that the start of an armed conflict in February would put the system in a state of crisis, with high world energy and raw material prices leading to record pig prices in many of the producing countries. In addition to all these factors, in the EU there has been a significant drop in the pig inventory in some of the main producing countries, such as Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands.
In another article, they say:
Poland: 6% drop in pig inventory
06-Feb-2023
Poland's pig inventory totaled 9.62 million head in December 2022, a decrease of 6.0% compared to the same period last year.
And:
Compared with the structure of the pig population registered at the beginning of December 2021, the share of pigs for slaughter increased in 2022 (by 2.2%). On the other hand, the share of piglets, growers, and pigs for rearing decreased by 1.3%, 0.7%, and 0.2% respectively.
The article on pork prices continues:
China is worth noting; the actual average price was outside the range of predictions, reaching 19 CNY/kg live, a value that exceeds the average prices prior to the emergence of ASF.

As the graph below shows, every country from which we have analyzed data reached a record average price in 2022, with the exception of Russia, Brazil, and China.
Not factored in, is the inflation in many countries which could explain a part of the increase in price:
evolution-of-average-hog-price-and-standard-deviation-by-year-and-country-blue-from-2002-to-2022_261487.jpg


On their page, Feed commodities: Latest prices, one can check the prices of feeds sold at three different markets, Spain, Brazil and Argentina. For a wider range of agricultural products, there is: Indexmundi.com
They have this diagram which shows the prices of sunflower oil for the last 30 years:
1676971985563.png
The market was impacted by the conflict in Ukraine, but apparently only for a few months in the first half of 2022.

For pork, the developments over the same period are:
1676972296294.png
The above does not, I think, take into consideration that the buying value of the USD has changed.
In spite of the assurances from the above diagrams, there was still this article, which I could not verify, but it might indicate a possible future trend in some countries:
Rising global pork prices start to have impact on Estonian consumers
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2023
The cost of pork has risen sharply on the world market over the past week leaving the Estonian meat industry concerned about the future.Consumers in Estonia have proved highly sensitive to price changes and competition is fierce. However, the latest price rises will not be reflected in the cost of pork on Estonian supermarket shelves just yet.

On Thursday, the Nõo meat factory in Tartu County reported, that pork prices have reached their highest level in 20 years.The cost of raw pork has risen by almost 60 percent in recent weeks, while the price of pork products has also gone up, though only by 10-15 percent.
This is a sad outlook for people living in Estonia, but we have to wait and see how it actually develops.
 
Well, following up on the hens not laying affair - I am happy to report, that our hens are back in business. Changing the Pride stuff to Rural King pellets (red bag 18% crude protein) did the trick and we are consistently seeing between 5-7 eggs a day out of 17 hens. It is an extra hour drive to get the pellets, but fresh eggs are worth it IMO.
 
What’s funny about this is that the price of eggs that I buy hasn’t changed. (Pasture raised organic eggs) which is still expensive as hell. But the GMO mutant eggs that get payed government subsidies Have tripled in price… hmmm I wonder if it hasn’t anything to do with… the government?! Lol
This has been the same for me. I buy organic, free range from Natural Grocer. Very good, healthy eggs, although in the last few months, since Christmas, they run out but restock quickly. The price has recently gone up, $1.00 a dozen so now $5.00, unorganic, free range $4.00. Still way cheaper then the commercial, factory eggs in regular supermarkets.
 
"2,36 €. Un seul poivron. Deux euros trente-six. Tout à l'heure à Leclerc. Quelle est la marge de Leclerc sur ce produit à votre avis ? »
This bell pepper is certainly not produced near its place of consumption (in France), and must come from the south of Spain or Morocco and it is not a seasonal vegetable. The scarcity of the product, the cost of production and transport explain this exorbitant price.
We as consumers are also responsible for this. By buying more peppers in France in the middle of winter, they will no longer be offered for sale as fresh produce.
But in order to respond to the customer's observation, Leclerc's margin must be substantial.
 
Well, following up on the hens not laying affair - I am happy to report, that our hens are back in business. Changing the Pride stuff to Rural King pellets (red bag 18% crude protein) did the trick and we are consistently seeing between 5-7 eggs a day out of 17 hens. It is an extra hour drive to get the pellets, but fresh eggs are worth it IMO.

I was alarmed by this because I'm using Pride chicken laying for my adult quail. I've come to the conclusion there just might be some corporate gamesmanship afoot thru rumouring? Oh well nothing new there, right. The point is l haven't noticed anything out of the ordinary in production and yes l use extra light throughout the winter to keep the egg laying cycle going.
What's been nagging at me me lately is our chaotic weather patterns being experienced around the world, you know the one's that are supposed to upset the WEF'ers game plan. Cool, but what about our game plan of self sustainability so we make it thru? I mean when we queried the C's about what to invest in didn't they tell us to get what would be needed now? Anyway, in 2 more weeks the pepper seeds need to be started under lights ( very slow growing ) then the others 6 weeks before the usual last frost. Hoping our gardening effort's don't become an exercise in futility especially now that food prices are reaching levels never expected and that goes ditto for the weather. Enjoying the journey, lol.
 
Wall Street Journal article sparks backlash after suggesting people ‘skip breakfast’ to save money

A Wall Street Journal article headline has sparked backlash after suggesting people who wish to save money should try skipping breakfast due to the increasing prices of many breakfast foods.On 14 February, the WSJ published the article, titled “To Save Money, Maybe You Should Skip Breakfast” by journalist Gabriel T Rubin as part of the newspaper’s ongoing coverage of the consumer-price index and inflation rates.
The short piece appears to inform readers about the “sharp price increases” of breakfast mainstays like eggs, juices, cereal, and coffee. A number of factors are to blame for the skyrocketing price of breakfast foods, like a deadly avian flu that has devastated flocks of chickens....
After activist Nina Turner tweeted a screenshot of the article headline, one person tweeted in response: “Many poor families already do.”

“Remember when they said ‘breakfast was the most important meal of the day!’” pointed out someone else.

Another user simply replied by tweeting an infamous picture of socialite Paris Hilton wearing a shirt that reads, “Stop Being Poor”...
Someone else chimed in: “Maybe we should just skip eating altogether.”

As consumers have increasingly been told to make many broad lifestyle changes – such as outrage over gas stoves or the high carbon footprint linkage to consuming red meat – some people pointed out how corporations and industry monopolies should take the blame for higher prices rather than individuals.

“Turn the heating off. Limit your travelling. Don’t use a gas stove. Stop eating red meat. And now…skip breakfast,” tweeted political writer James Melville. “It’s all a bit Dickensian.”
 
This bell pepper is certainly not produced near its place of consumption (in France), and must come from the south of Spain or Morocco and it is not a seasonal vegetable. The scarcity of the product, the cost of production and transport explain this exorbitant price.
We as consumers are also responsible for this. By buying more peppers in France in the middle of winter, they will no longer be offered for sale as fresh produce.
But in order to respond to the customer's observation, Leclerc's margin must be substantial.

There looks like a concerted effort to raise the price of food, in particular with production and distribution operations going up in smoke pretty regularly. In other words, it's a manufactured shortage that's raising the price.

On top of that, you have the massive plandemic stimulus injections, and printing money only results in one thing historically - inflation. Plus there's the lockdown effects on the supply chain, which is a long, slow grinding down of any operation that needs some kinda delivery from somewhere. Throw in a worker shortage, too.

All that said, I wouldn't be so quick to blame consumers - I used to buy into that, too, that we can 'vote with our wallets'. Catherine Austin-Fitts is big on this, and I do agree that supporting small farmers in your area is a great idea. But placing too much responsibility on consumers seems like we're supposed to be blaming ourselves while they're scorching the earth. They spend a lot of time trying to convince us that we were the ones who lit the fire, that it's our fault.

Nowadays, do consumers even have much effect on market price? Is 'supply and demand as the determinant of price' becoming more like a mythology in this world of corporate mafia that runs the economy like a very shady casino?

I was alarmed by this because I'm using Pride chicken laying for my adult quail. I've come to the conclusion there just might be some corporate gamesmanship afoot thru rumouring? Oh well nothing new there, right. The point is l haven't noticed anything out of the ordinary in production and yes l use extra light throughout the winter to keep the egg laying cycle going.
What's been nagging at me me lately is our chaotic weather patterns being experienced around the world, you know the one's that are supposed to upset the WEF'ers game plan. Cool, but what about our game plan of self sustainability so we make it thru? I mean when we queried the C's about what to invest in didn't they tell us to get what would be needed now? Anyway, in 2 more weeks the pepper seeds need to be started under lights ( very slow growing ) then the others 6 weeks before the usual last frost. Hoping our gardening effort's don't become an exercise in futility especially now that food prices are reaching levels never expected and that goes ditto for the weather. Enjoying the journey, lol.

Have you thought about using caterpillar tunnels or floating row cover (remay cloth)? These are good methods, especially for new seedlings that are vulnerable to frost. It can extend your growing season by a few months. If you overwinter (I posted about this method here, it's super easy) you can extend your season even further!
 

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