Since 1945, Western and Central Europe have not fought a war. One could be happy about this if the Europeans who built the Community and then the European Union had really remained faithful to the oath of 1950 - never again war.
However, since 1990, the European Union has allowed itself to be dragged into American wars: in the Middle East, in Libya, in the Balkans (it is terrible to think that the European Union has not learned any lesson from the NATO bombings against Yugoslavia, which began 23 years ago to the day).
And this, far from bringing back an understanding of the nature of war, has on the contrary distanced Western Europeans even more from reality.
In the case of the war in Ukraine, we can see the extent of the disaster:
+ A childish enthusiasm for the war that the Ukrainian government and army are waging, as if history had begun on February 24, 2022. The atrocious conflict in Donbass, which has been going on for eight years, is completely forgotten; the complexity of Ukrainian society, which after 1991 wanted to live in peace and neutrality, not having to decide between the West and Russia, is forgotten. Unfortunately, as Brzezinski announced in The Grand Chessboard in 1997, the West wanted to break the Russian power by tipping the whole Ukraine to the Western side, without respecting its historically variegated character (Ukrainian-speaking, Russian-speaking, Polish-speaking, Magyar-speaking, Rumanian-speaking, Turkish-speaking; Greek-Catholic, Orthodox, Muslim). The result is the disaster of the last eight years, culminating in the current open war between Russia and Ukraine. The result is the disaster of the last eight years, which culminates in the current open war between Russia and Ukraine, with the suffering that we see every day.
+ An inability to understand the springs of power and the bases of geopolitics that were still obvious to previous generations of Europeans. Ukraine is a key territory for the control of Eurasia. A power hostile to Russia on the shores of the Black Sea diminishes Russian power. There is no historical memory and the trauma of the Crimean War (1853-1856) on Russian power is not remembered. Stalin, the Georgian communist who became, by force of circumstance, the defender of Russia's interests, wanted all the more to avoid a "new Crimean War" after 1945 that the Wehrmacht had succeeded for a time in establishing itself in the peninsula and had only been able to be stopped at Stalingrad - Volgograd. The stakes have not changed today.
The Russians remember that the Treaty of Paris (in 1856) after their defeat in the Crimean War, and its reduction of the Black Sea coast to a commercial issue had put them permanently in a position of inferiority. And the period 1991-2013 has put them in a similar situation. The fact that Vladimir Putin wants, at the end of the current war in Ukraine, not only to keep Crimea but also to consolidate its borders by imposing the neutrality of Ukraine, may well arouse in us a range of negative emotions, but this will not change the question of the balance of power.
+ This is the problem of many Europeans. They let themselves be dominated by emotions. It is not a question, by contrast, of praising a cold rationality, a pure Realpolitik. But to realize that the emotions we are talking about are manipulated by very cynical interests. The decision-makers in Washington who have undertaken, since the end of the 1990s, to bring Ukraine into the Western camp "whatever it takes", do not care about the suffering of the Ukrainian population or the impoverishment of the whole of Europe into which we are falling. They pursue strategic, geopolitical and financial interests, the same ones that have made them crush, dislocate, disperse and displace populations in the Middle East or in the Balkans. We can shout "freedom, freedom", "Long live Zelenski" or "Death to Putin", but this will not change the way we are being manipulated.
When will Europe take its destiny in hand? When will it get out of this atrophy of the intelligence and this manipulation of the will that pushes us towards an economic, monetary, energetic, social and political implosion of our nations?
Thank you to our readers. Let us continue to try to understand, to become less manipulable.
The military situation
Cross-referencing the usual sources (from the
Institute for the Study of War to Stratpol, and including the few media outlets on the ground), we arrive at the following conclusions:
The Russian army continues to systematically destroy infrastructure, support points and warehouses of the Ukrainian army. Thus, a strike on Kramatorsk allowed the destruction of a gasoline depot, a vehicle garage and a barracks of the Ukrainian army in one go. This will facilitate the Russian advance towards Slaviansk and Kramatorsk.
+ Russian troops continue to encircle Kiev, gradually.
+ Medium intensity fighting is taking place around Kharkov.
+ Hard fighting continues around Izum. But Ukrainian troops fighting further south have refused to withdraw to support the troops around Izum. The fanaticism that one does not leave conquered "Ukrainian soil" outweighs strategic common sense: if Izum falls completely to the Russians, the entire Ukrainian defense line up to Dnepropetrovsk may collapse.
+ Russian troops are strengthening their hold around the cities of Kramatorsk, Zaporozhie, Nikolayev
+ In Mariupol, the several thousand militiamen entrenched in the area of the Azovstal factory are now cut off from the rest of the city.
+ The militia leader Marchenko - with whom
BHL has not been afraid to appear and above all to affirm that he is a defender of democracy - is preparing, in the event of a Russian offensive, to resist to the last man in Odessa like his ideological comrades in Marioupol. The Russian troops have to fight very hard when they face the Ukrainian militias. But one is struck by the lack of strategic intelligence of these Ukrainian militants who prefer to let themselves be trapped by the Russians rather than redeploy across Ukraine.
+ The decomposition of the Kiev state is becoming fully visible. In the west of the country, videos of Ukrainians accused of theft or "marauding" (or "collaboration") who are hanging from trees half-naked and publicly humiliated are multiplying. In the east of the country, the inhabitants who manage to use the humanitarian corridors tell how the Kievians, in Mariupol or elsewhere, take the population hostage.
The geostrategic conflict
+ First, the sequel to "Mister Bean." The British government is scrambling to get the recordings of Defense Secretary
Ben Wallace being framed by fake Zelenski advisers removed from the Internet. It is said to be a matter of national security. This in itself is highly comical but also profoundly true. Ben Wallace allowed himself to say that Ukraine would be supported in any case.
+ Another
brilliant article by M.K. Bhadrakumar on his blog "Indian Punchline". He explains how India has distanced itself from the US in a few days. As always in an analysis of Bhadrakumar, one tries to keep only one or two excerpts and then ends up quoting a large part of the text. Intelligence does not fragment:
"(...) Mr. Biden took the liberty of saying that India's position on Ukraine was "somewhat shaky." Who could have imagined that the geopolitics of Ukraine would shake up the Quadrilateral [the India-Japan-US-Australia working group]?
India certainly had a premonition. The Indian foreign policy establishment was not wrong about what started to unfold in Ukraine in the last week of February. (...)
Unlike the Indian media, academia or think tanks, Indian leaders could sense that a historic global struggle for the rise of the United States and its Western allies against Russia and China was breaking out in Ukraine. Modi sensed that India would suffer collateral damage if it did not saddle up and get off the mountain, as the sky began to turn black with wind-driven clouds, ahead of the arrival of the huge downpour.
There is a context to this. Any perceptive observer would have noticed that Modi has been in a reflective mood on foreign affairs for several months. His attendance at the Democracy Summit last December quietly had an end-of-century air about it - the end of one era and the beginning of another. One might attribute this to the sobering effect of the pandemic.
The fact is that India fought the pandemic alone. Whatever the hype, India realized that it had no real partnership with the US or the EU, that it was a mere transactional relationship - and that ultimately India lived in its region.
Indeed, India handled the pandemic far better than most countries. International experts now acknowledge this, and those who were throwing stones at the time also grudgingly accept it.
But while the economy has been ravaged beyond recognition, the government is picking up the pieces and staggering forward. (...)
In the race for the fate of the Indian economy, the United States is no help. On the other hand, the decline of multilateralism and the new constraints on growth imposed by the increasing propensity of the United States to use the dollar as a weapon threaten to destroy the post-pandemic growth spurt in the Indian economy. (...)
A March 16 UNCTAD report, The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Trade and Development, concludes, "The findings confirm a rapidly deteriorating outlook for the global economy, underpinned by rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices, heightened financial volatility, disinvestment in sustainable development, the complex reconfiguration of global supply chains and rising trade costs.
"This rapidly evolving situation is alarming for developing countries, and particularly for African and least developed countries, some of which are particularly exposed to the war in Ukraine and its effects on trade costs, commodity prices, and financial markets. The risk of civil unrest, food shortages, and inflation-induced recessions cannot be excluded..."
Does Biden even know that at least 25 African countries depend on Russia for more than a third of their wheat imports? Or that Benin is 100% dependent on Russia for its wheat imports? And that Russia supplies wheat at preferential prices to these poor countries?
Now, how can these soft, miserable countries of the world import from Russia when Biden and EU chief Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen join forces to block banking channels for trade with Russia? Can Delaware find a solution?
The cruelty and cynical complacency with which the Biden administration and the EU conduct their foreign policy is absolutely astounding. And, mind you, this is all in the name of "democratic values" and "international law"!
India cannot agree with the reckless attempt of the US and the EU to militarize global economic ties. The fact is that the U.S. and the EU may not even win this war in Ukraine. Russia has almost completed 90% of its special operations. Unless Biden allows Kiev to accept a peace deal, the division of Ukraine along the Dnieper River is in the cards.
The U.S. is destabilizing the European security order while Western sanctions are destabilizing the global economic order. The U.S. and the EU must take responsibility for this collateral damage. The West is panicking that the world is already living in the Asian century.
"One of the reasons for the optimism in the heart of Asia is the vastness of the [Asian] region's natural resources," writes the renowned Oxford historian Peter Frankopan in his recent book The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World. Indeed, the Middle East, Russia and Central Asia account for nearly 70 percent of the world's proven oil reserves, and nearly 65 percent of the proven natural gas reserves.
Professor Frankopan writes, "Or there is the agricultural wealth of the region stretching between the Mediterranean and the Pacific...which accounts for more than half of the world's wheat production...(and) accounts for nearly 85 percent of the world's rice production."
"Then there are elements like Silicon, which plays an important role in microelectronics and semiconductor production, where Russia and China alone account for three-quarters of the world's production; or rare earths like yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium, which are essential for everything from super magnets to batteries, actuators to laptops - of which China alone accounted for more than 80% of the world's production... Resources have always played a central role in shaping the world... This makes controlling the Silk Roads more important than ever. "
The West still seems to want to "get back to 'normal,'" Frankopan writes, "and expects the newcomers to resume their old positions in the world order." It is clear that India, a former British colony, understands the real agenda behind Washington and Brussels' geopolitical struggle with Russia. Primarily, India seeks partnerships in all directions, Russia and China included.
If the Chinese news site Guancha is right, which is the case most of the time, "China-India diplomatic relations will relax significantly and enter a period of recovery. China and India will complete the exchange of visits of diplomatic officials in a relatively short time. Chinese officials will visit India first, and Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar will come to China."
This is good news. Modi's unique stature in Indian politics allows him to make tough decisions. The renewed mandate he got from the heartland puts him in a position to innovate in foreign policy."
What can one say when one comes away from such a reading? It's not even the decline anymore, it's the collapse of the West that is going to happen!
Vladimir Putin to the West: "Failure!"
+ At 12:00 p.m. European time, the news broke: Russia is demanding that its gas deliveries to Europeans be paid for in rubles. So the Europeans will have to choose between depriving their fellow citizens of gas or filling the Russian coffers with euros to buy rubles that will be used to buy the gas.
Western leaders can call Putin any number of names; not one of them can match him in terms of geostrategic maneuvering.
+ The misuse of international institutions: the UN Secretary General explains to Russia that it cannot win the war in Ukraine.
Conversely, it is worth reading this analysis by Wolfgang Münchau, oracle of the Financial Times and other Western media:
"As for the West, it has taken the biggest gamble in the history of economic warfare. We have frozen the assets of the Russian central bank. Call it a special economic operation.
But we didn't think it through. For a central bank to freeze the accounts of another central bank is a very big deal. Economically, it means that the entire transatlantic West has defaulted on our most important asset: our fiat currency. The reserves of the Russian central bank were earnings from legitimate sales, mostly to the West. Courts can freeze assets if they are obtained illegally. But that was not the case here. Russia violated international law by invading Ukraine. But its central bank accounts held abroad are legal.
With this one sanction, we have done all of the following: undermined confidence in the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency; pre-empted any challenge the euro might one day pose; reduced the creditworthiness of our central banks; encouraged China and Russia to bypass the Western financial infrastructure; and made bitcoin a respectable alternative transaction currency. At least the blockchain won't backfire.
Vladimir Putin is playing it smart. He says Russia will stick to its international contracts and obligations. Russia will not default. It will continue to supply gas, as it has done in previous wars. Europe is, of course, right to seek greater independence from Russian energy. The trade-off is that Russia is also becoming more independent of the West.
Even without the West, a Russia rich in raw materials has many markets at its disposal. China will remain a strong trading partner. So will India, Pakistan and Indonesia. And of course South Africa and Brazil, as well as most of Africa and Latin America. Russia isolated? You must be joking. Or you are suffering from an exaggerated perception of the transatlantic West in the 21st century.
Now consider what the Chinese will do with our sanctions. The Chinese government knows that its heavy exposure to U.S. assets is also at risk. What the U.S. did to President Putin over Ukraine can be done to President Xi over the Uyghurs. The de-dollarization process will take time. But China is never in a hurry.
As a direct result of these decisions, we have turned the dollar and the euro, and everything denominated in these currencies, into de facto risky assets. The probability of default on a dollar or euro-denominated asset can no longer be credibly set at zero."
It cannot be said that no one saw the catastrophe coming: the discredit of what was called during the Cold War the "free world" is total.
The dis-credit! We will quickly see the United States and the European Union isolated. No one will want to give them credit or borrow money from them anymore.
cryptobriefing.com
The Ukrainian leadership missed its chance for a sovereign state, - the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova
Kadyrov said that our troops completely liberated the Left Bank district of Mariupol. The enemy retreated to the west
