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The Living Force
A pretty good Russian analyst I follow, Gennady M, presents convincing arguments that the war in Ukraine may expand to other countries:
- The US does not want to lose face with a defeat of Ukraine and therefore tries to create potential new battlefields for Russia, especially in Transnistria (Moldova) and possibly even in the Baltics or Poland. However, he thinks that the threat of nuclear weapons will prevent a large conventional war in the rest of Europe.
- He points out that the blockade of Transnistria by Moldova started in fall when it became clear that the Ukrainian offensive had failed. Also, 183 billion euros of EU subsidies for Poland have just been unfrozen, which may indicate the preparation of Poland for a conflict.
- The EU parliament just adopted a resolution on Feb 29 that one of the goals of the EU is the dismemberment of Russia into several states, which is another provocation to possibly "lure" Russia into a direct war.
- He thinks that the new Ukrainian commander may try a different tactic in May or in the summer of sending pretty much the whole army towards cutting off Crimea in one big attack. He expects it to fail, resulting in peace negotiations.
- The US does not want to lose face with a defeat of Ukraine and therefore tries to create potential new battlefields for Russia, especially in Transnistria (Moldova) and possibly even in the Baltics or Poland. However, he thinks that the threat of nuclear weapons will prevent a large conventional war in the rest of Europe.
- He points out that the blockade of Transnistria by Moldova started in fall when it became clear that the Ukrainian offensive had failed. Also, 183 billion euros of EU subsidies for Poland have just been unfrozen, which may indicate the preparation of Poland for a conflict.
- The EU parliament just adopted a resolution on Feb 29 that one of the goals of the EU is the dismemberment of Russia into several states, which is another provocation to possibly "lure" Russia into a direct war.
- He thinks that the new Ukrainian commander may try a different tactic in May or in the summer of sending pretty much the whole army towards cutting off Crimea in one big attack. He expects it to fail, resulting in peace negotiations.