Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

Below are notes related to Moldova, Belarus, statements from the President of Serbia, and examples of the historic significance of this and the next few days of February.

Moldova-Transnistria has stocks of old USSR ammunition
Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.02.21 speculates that Transnistria and Moldova could become involved in the conflict since Transnistria has huge stocks of artillery shells of types relevant for and needed by Ukraine. Also, Moldova needs to resolve the issue of Transnistria to be able to apply for NATO membership. One way to resolve such an issue is by force, and with the help of Ukraine, that has an interest in the ammunition.
Just to recapitulate the story of Transnistria
Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR),[c] is an unrecognised breakaway state that is internationally recognised as a part of Moldova. Transnistria controls most of the narrow strip of land between the Dniester river and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border, as well as some land on the other side of the river's bank. Its capital and largest city is Tiraspol. Transnistria has been recognised only by three other unrecognised or partially recognised breakaway states: Abkhazia, Artsakh and South Ossetia.[10] Transnistria is officially designated by the Republic of Moldova as the Administrative-Territorial Units of the Left Bank of the Dniester (Romanian: Unitățile Administrativ-Teritoriale din stînga Nistrului)[11] or as Stînga Nistrului ("Left Bank of the Dniester").[12][13][14] The Council of Europe considers the territory to be under military occupation by Russia.[15]

Death penalty for treason committed by officials in Belarus
The Military Summary Channel, cited above, also said that Belarus has introduced a new law that makes treason by officials punishable by execution. This is interpreted as a preparation for the next stage of the conflict. Whatever the reason, here is the link to an RT article.

Another news bit from the channel was that high level Chinese officials have visited Moscow and there have been meetings with the leaders of Russian intelligence. The Summary Channel speculates some secret negotiations related to what will happen next in the SMO. From where I sit, it can also reflect a response to announced secret meetings between Taiwan and the US.

The president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic on Ukraine
Serbia warns ‘everyone is preparing for war’
Belgrade says it is profiting from the arms and ammunition race, but is worried about NATO encirclement
[...]
Asked for comment about the situation in Ukraine, Vucic said he was expecting “great changes on the battlefield” in the next two to three days, which may lead to further Western pressure on Serbia. Vucic has so far resisted US and EU demands to sanction Russia, insisting on Belgrade’s military neutrality in the ongoing conflict.

The next two to three days in the calendar from a Russian perspective:
February 21, 2023
marks one year since Vladimir Putin spoke about the serious situation in Ukraine, one year since the Russian Federation recognized DNR and LNR as sovereign states. See Address by the President of the Russian Federation.

And today, February 21, there is the latest speech by Vladimir Putin, which is up in Russian on the Kremlin site: Message from the President to the Federal Assembly. Perhaps by the time some read this post, there will be a translation in the English version of the site.

I have heard a number of very different interpretations of the speech, with some saying it is boring, but that is perhaps because the voice of the translator is boring? Yes, there are a lot of statistical figures. Putin exemplifies a knowledgable presidency to a degree which is unmatched by any of the PR puppets in the West. Take the EU with its 448 million people... Who do you see, and what do these leaders represent? In the speech, Putin repeats the position already voiced by the FM, that if West sends long range weapons to Ukraine, Russia will need to go that further to secure its borders. In this way, the next step appears to be in the hands of the West, to which Russia then will respond. The West has of course promised to go further, with some even pressing for it:
President of Lithuania calls on the West to cross “red lines”
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2023
On Monday, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda called on the West to cross “red lines” to provide Ukraine with the military assistance it needs.

“It is very important that we cross these red lines that are in our heads and do not exist in reality. Maybe sometimes Russia tries to set these red lines for us,” he said in an interview with CNN.

“My message is: don’t waste time. Be decisive, united and make decisions as soon as possible,” Nauseda added.

He said that US President Joe Biden’s visit to Kyiv on Monday shows that Ukraine will not be abandoned and sends a very strong message of unity among Ukraine’s allies.

Nausėda will meet with Biden in Warsaw in the near future. The Lithuanian leader said that he would discuss with the US leader the security of Lithuania and “especially the security of the eastern flank.”

The president added that the Baltic states face “direct threats” from Russia and Belarus. “This is the reason why we expect positive signals about our security,” he said.

During his visit to Poland this week, Biden is expected to meet with the leaders of the Bucharest Nine, a group of NATO’s eastern allies – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
If you go back to the history of Maidan coup in 2014 February 21 to 22 were important dates in the coup. The Wiki for what the West and the UA nationalists call "Revolution of Dignity" includes :
On 21 February, Yanukovych and the parliamentary opposition signed an agreement to bring about an interim unity government, constitutional reforms and early elections.[32] Police abandoned central Kyiv that afternoon and the protesters took control. Yanukovych fled the city that evening.[33]

The next day, 22 February, the Ukrainian parliament voted to remove Yanukovych from office by 328 to 0 (about 73% of the parliament's 450 members).[34][35][36][32] Yanukovych claimed this vote was illegal and asked Russia for help.[37] Russia condemned the events as a "coup". Pro-Russian, counter-revolutionary protests erupted in southern and eastern Ukraine. Russia occupied and then annexed Crimea,[38][39] while armed pro-Russian separatists seized government buildings and proclaimed the independent states of Donetsk and Luhansk, sparking the Donbas War.
February 23 is in Russian Public Holiday calendar Defender of the Fatherland Day. The Wiki has:
Defender of the Fatherland Day (Russian: День защитника Отечества Den' zashchitnika Otechestva; Kazakh: Отан қорғаушы күні; Tajik: Рӯзи Дорандаи Ватан; Kyrgyz: Мекенди коргоочулардын күнү; Belarusian: Дзень абаронцы Айчыны) is a holiday observed in Russia, Turkmenistan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. It is celebrated on 23 February, except in Kazakhstan, where it is celebrated on 7 May. Ukraine abolished the holiday starting 1992 and, after the Revolution of Dignity, has instated the somewhat similar Defender of Ukraine Day on 14 October.

History
First celebrated in 1919, the holiday marks the date in 1918 during the Russian Civil War when the first mass draft into the Red Army occurred in Petrograd and Moscow (on 17 February).[1] In January 1919, it was decided to combine the celebration of that day with the anniversary of the publication of the decree on the establishment of the Red Army (of 18 February 1918).[1] In 1919, 17 February fell on a Monday, so it was decided to move the holiday to the following Sunday, 23 February.[1] That choice of day has been retained ever since.[1] It was originally known as "Red Army Day" (Russian: День Красной Армии).[1] In 1923, it was officially named Day of the Red Army and the Navy.[1]

In 1949, it was renamed to
Soviet Army and Navy Day (Russian: День Советской армии и Военно-морского флота, romanized: Dyen' Sovyetskoy armii i Voyenno-morskogo flota).[1] Following the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the holiday was given its current name in 2002 by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who decreed it a state holiday (in Russia).[2]
Actually, there is another anniversary in relation to February 23, at least after the Julian Calendar followed in Russian until the revolution. The Wiki has:
The February Revolution (Russian: Февра́льская револю́ция, tr. Fevral'skaya revolyutsiya, IPA: [fʲɪvˈralʲskəjə rʲɪvɐˈlʲutsɨjə]), known in Soviet historiography as the February Bourgeois Democratic Revolution[note 1] and sometimes as the March Revolution,[3] was the first of two revolutions which took place in Russia in 1917.

The main events of the revolution took place in and near Petrograd (present-day Saint Petersburg), the then-capital of Russia, where long-standing discontent with the monarchy erupted into mass protests against food rationing on 23 February Old Style (8 March New Style).[4] Revolutionary activity lasted about eight days, involving mass demonstrations and violent armed clashes with police and gendarmes, the last loyal forces of the Russian monarchy. On 27 February O.S. (12 March N.S.) the forces of the capital's garrison sided with the revolutionaries. Three days later Tsar Nicholas II abdicated, ending Romanov dynastic rule and the Russian Empire. The Russian Provisional Government under Prince Georgy Lvov replaced the Council of Ministers of Russia.
The eighth of March, mentioned above, is now celebrated as the International Women's Day which in Russia also is a holiday, but it began differently:
Russia observed International Women's Day for the first time in 1913, on the last Saturday in February (albeit based on the Julian calendar, as in the Gregorian calendar, the date was March 8).[22]
The Wiki about Public Holidays in Russia has:
Main article: International Women's Day
On the eve of World War I campaigning for peace, Russian women observed their first International Women's Day on the last Sunday in February 1913. In 1913 following discussions, International Women's Day was transferred to 8 March and has remained the global date for International Women's Day ever since.
Whatever the reason for the confluence of these dates February 23 and March 8 perhaps the coincidences can help to recall them and their history.

And finally:
February 24 will be one year since the beginning of Special Military Operation and one year since this milestone Address by the President of the Russian Federation

To summarize the last few paragraphs: these days, it is nine years since the Maidan coup and one year since the beginning of SMO.
 
Perhaps it is time to open a thread about NATOstan or maybe one about the Baltic States. However, until this idea matures, here is an observation from the blog The Baltic Word:
NATO and EU signed new “declaration of dependence”
BY ADOMAS ABROMAITIS ON TUESDAY, JANUARY 17, 2023
SHARE

NATO-EU.jpg

On January 10, NATO and the European Union signed joint declaration.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda welcomed it saying that it sends a strong message of transatlantic unity.

The declaration, signed by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, reaffirms the strategic partnership between NATO and the EU and commits to taking their partnership “to the next level”.

To some extent, this mentioned “next level” is “the rope around the neck”. The EU admits that “NATO, backed by US military power, remains the bedrock for Europe’s security despite attempts by the EU to boost its role in defense.”

In other words, EU member states, including Lithuania, recognized their incompetence in providing own security and defence. All European countries involved unreservedly recognize the primacy of the United States in defining the policy of the European continent.

Thus, declaration stated that countries “encourage the fullest possible involvement of the NATO Allies that are not members of the EU in its initiatives.”
The U.S. actively contribute troops, finance and equipment to the Baltic States thus strengthening its influence in the region and depriving the country of the ability to make independent political decisions.

Lithuanian officials very often meet the United States’ officials and after such meetings they make “their” decisions public. Thus, on December 14 through 17 Minister of National Defence Arvydas Anušauskas conducted a visit to the United States of America. Minister met with U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon.

Then it was announced that the first High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers are to reach Lithuania in 2025. Lithuania’s Defence Materiel Agency has also signed a contract for the acquisition of the Switchblade 600 combat drones from the U.S. government.

U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. CQ Brown, Jr. traveled to Lithuania Dec. 20–21 and met with Lithuanian Chief of Defense Lt. Gen. Valdemaras Rupšys and Air Force Commander Col. Antanas Matutis in Vilnius, Lithuania. Brown focused on strengthening bilateral defense relationships and further exploring opportunities to enhance interoperability and training with NATO Allies and partners.

Just a few days later, it becomes known that Lithuania intends to use the new bases for the deployment of its forces and of those NATO allies who are on the territory of the country.

So, Lithuania, as well as other EU countries deepened their global dependence on the U.S. in decision making process even more signing the new declaration of dependence.
The declaration discussed in the article is as follows according to this EU Press release:
Home, Press, Press releases
European Council, Press release, 10 January 2023, 12:30
Joint Declaration on EU-NATO Cooperation, 10 January 2023
  1. The NATO-EU strategic partnership is founded on our shared values, our determination to tackle common challenges and our unequivocal commitment to promote and safeguard peace, freedom and prosperity in the Euro-Atlantic area.
  2. Today, we are faced with the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades. Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine violates international law and the principles of the UN Charter. It undermines European and global security and stability. Russia’s war has exacerbated a food and energy crisis affecting billions of people around the world.
  3. We condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s aggression. Russia must immediately stop this war and withdraw from Ukraine. We express our full solidarity with Ukraine and reiterate our unwavering and continued support for its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. We fully support Ukraine’s inherent right to self-defence and to choose its own destiny.
  4. Authoritarian actors challenge our interests, values and democratic principles using multiple means – political, economic, technological and military.
  5. We live in an era of growing strategic competition. China’s growing assertiveness and policies present challenges that we need to address.
  6. Persistent conflict, fragility and instability in our European neighbourhood undermine our security and provide fertile ground for strategic competitors, as well as terrorist groups, to gain influence, destabilise societies and pose a threat to our security.
  7. As underlined by both the NATO Strategic Concept and the EU Strategic Compass, this is a key juncture for Euro-Atlantic security and stability, more than ever demonstrating the importance of the transatlantic bond, calling for closer EU-NATO cooperation.
  8. NATO remains the foundation of collective defence for its Allies and essential for Euro Atlantic security. We recognise the value of a stronger and more capable European defence that contributes positively to global and transatlantic security and is complementary to, and interoperable with NATO.
  9. Our mutually reinforcing strategic partnership contributes to strengthening security in Europe and beyond. NATO and the EU play complementary, coherent and mutually reinforcing roles in supporting international peace and security. We will further mobilize the combined set of instruments at our disposal, be they political, economic or military, to pursue our common objectives to the benefit of our one billion citizens.
  10. Building on the 2016 Warsaw Joint Declaration and the 2018 Brussels Joint Declaration, which significantly expanded the breadth and depth of our partnership established more than twenty years ago, we have achieved unprecedented progress across all areas of cooperation.
  11. We have reached tangible results in countering hybrid and cyber threats, operational cooperation including maritime issues, military mobility, defence capabilities, defence industry and research, exercises, counter terrorism, and capacity-building of partners.
  12. As the security threats and challenges we are confronted with are evolving in scope and magnitude, we will take our partnership to the next level on the basis of our long-standing cooperation. We will further strengthen our cooperation in existing areas, and expand and deepen our cooperation to address in particular the growing geostrategic competition, resilience issues, protection of critical infrastructures, emerging and disruptive technologies, space, the security implications of climate change, as well as foreign information manipulation and interference.
  13. In signing this declaration we will take the NATO-EU partnership forward in close consultation and cooperation with all NATO Allies and EU Member States, in the spirit of full mutual openness and in compliance with the decision-making autonomy of our respective organisations and without prejudice to the specific character of the security and defence policy of any of our members. In this context, we view transparency as crucial. We encourage the fullest possible involvement of the NATO Allies that are not members of the EU in its initiatives. We encourage the fullest possible involvement of the EU members that are not part of the Alliance in its initiatives.
  14. We will assess progress on a regular basis.
I only highlighted the first point, but much is said there if one thinks of the implications.
See also this RT article related headline concerning the event:
10 Jan, 2023 15:53
HomeWorld News
EU and NATO to futher strengthen ties
Transatlantic security demands “further mobilization,” according to a joint statement
And more recently:
20 Feb, 2023 15:14
HomeWorld News
Joe Biden is making Europe great again – for the US
The American president’s annual address celebrated ‘saving’ the Western part of the continent from the last remnants of independence
Some SOTT articles that point in a similar direction:
Europe's descent into totalitarianism from October 2022
Lavrov: US and UK want 'real war' between Russia and EU from July 2022
EU morphed into a military organization - Lavrov from April 2022
And one I could not find on SOTT, but on TASS:
7 MAY 2021, 17:38
West imposing totalitarianism, rejecting democracy in global affairs — Lavrov
Russia’s top diplomat stressed that the West’s policy of unilateral sanctions is geared to "punish unwanted regimes or remove rivals"
[...]
The West views multilateralism not as a way to develop universal solutions that everyone will accept but primarily as a tool to ensure its superiority over others who are expected to accept what is required of them," the Russian foreign minister concluded.
 
21 Feb, 2023 15:44
DeSantis takes aim at Biden over Ukraine
The US president’s administration has no strategic objective in Ukraine, the Florida governor says

Joe Biden is pursuing a ‘blank check’ policy towards Ukraine, while turning a blind eye to the most pressing issues in America, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has said, commenting on the US president’s surprise visit to Kiev on Monday.

“We have a lot of problems accumulating here in our own country that he [Biden] is neglecting,” DeSantis told Fox News’ ‘Fox & Friends’ several hours after the US leader arrived in the Ukrainian capital.

“He’s very concerned about those borders halfway around the world [in Ukraine]. He’s not done anything to secure our own border [with Mexico] here at home,” said DeSantis, who some believe is preparing to run for president in 2024. He also called out Biden for the “national humiliation” of “having China fly a spy balloon clear across the continental US.”

On the topic of America’s military support for Ukraine amid the conflict with Russia, the governor insisted that the Biden administration has “effectively [given Kiev] a blank check with no clear strategic objective identified.”

“I don’t think that it’s in our interest to be getting into a proxy war… over things like the [Ukrainian] borderlands or over Crimea,” DeSantis said.

While Russia is “hostile” to the US, it does not pose the same level of threat to the US as China does, according to the governor.

“The fear of Russia going into NATO countries and all that, and steamrolling, you know, that has not even come close to happening,” he said, referring to Western claims that Russia plans to invade NATO nations.

DeSantis claimed that the conflict in Ukraine would not have broken out in the first place if not for “the weakness that the president showed during his first year in office.” DeSantis is expected by many to be Donald Trump’s main rival for the Republican presidential nomination next year.

During his trip to Kiev, which lasted just five hours, Biden once again assured his Ukrainian counterpart, Vladimir Zelensky, of Washington’s support and pledged another $500 million in lethal aid to his government.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who delivered an address to the Federal Assembly on Tuesday, warned the West against supplying longer range weapons to Kiev. If this happens, Russia’s forces will have to move deeper into Ukrainian territory “to push the threat away from our borders,” he explained.
 
DeSantis also referred to Russia's military as third rate. He's either deluded or lying to play to his base. The reason Russia hasn't steamrolled into Europe is because they aren't an evil superpower. If he doesn't understand that, then he's not the man to be president.

“The fear of Russia going into NATO countries and all that and steamrolling, you know, that has not even come close to happening,” the Republican governor said on Fox’s “Fox & Friends,” appearing from New York. “I think they’ve shown themselves to be a third-rate military power.”
 
This man, really, is teaching us how this war is going. Very interesting man. We are lucky to be able to learn from him.


I enjoyed watching Putin's speech live 🌟 I really appreciate the lack of drama and value the very calm, centred, heart based, sincere, direct way he communicates. I also really respect that he does not do what other leaders do, which is make some brief grand statements and then leave the detail to be explained by other members of his team. I don't know of any other leader who speaks in such detail for so long. (Ha ha certainly NOT Biden. He can barely manage 5 seconds before he is completely incoherent. They must have given him some excellent anti dementia drugs before that speech in Kyiv the other day.)

I think Putin is quite unusual in how 'hands on' he is... he seems genuinely involved and intrinsically connected to the overview but also the many layers of an issue on a deeper level.

I so wish I was able to understand Russian because like others I find the translator is generally very boring to listen to (probably also because they do not hold a similar frequency to the speaker) but to give them credit, I can imagine it would also be hard to translate accurately / put the same level of expression on words to mimic as closely as possible the emphasis / phrasing in the same way they are delivered by the speaker. I prefer to watch with English subtitles so I can hear Putin's voice clearly / receive part of the 'transmission' energetically. I also enjoy watching his very humane expressions and feel the truth of what he says through his body language.

Thanks for posting that link Loreta - you commented about Douglas McGregor and I agree he is very interesting, I find him easy to listen to and understand; he is another person who speaks with conviction and clarity, which I value greatly.

I transcribed part of the talk McGregor gave because I wanted to quote him...

The text in blue made me wonder just what exactly what has happened to Zelensky to transform him so dramatically: I wondered if it was something connected to the portal / some kind of downloading that occurred, along with exposure to drugs, propaganda? Perhaps this activated his deeper programs that were laying 'dormant'. He certainly seems to be embodying his 'inner gremlin'. And that growl in his throat when he speaks is like he is channeling something really evil!

"And where did this man Zelensky come from? Remember Zelensky was an unknown comedian of questionable value who shows up out of nowhere and he becomes the head of state; and remember he ran on a platform that told the Ukranians: 'We want peace with Russia. We have to find a way forward that's peaceful. He was elected overwhelmingly on that platform. Then he did a 180 and turned into the most vicious Russian hater and war-like individual they've ever had. The funny thing about Zelensky is that when he was elected he could not speak a word of Ukranian. He grew up speaking only Russian - that was an embarrassment to our State Department as I learned when I spent some time there... and they worked hard for several months to bring him up to speed. It's not that Ukranian and Russian are so different that in a few months one can't master the other, but nevertheless, stop and think about that. But he had a huge, huge support from the Ukranian people, which tells you the masses of Ukranians want nothing to do with a war against Russia, but this then was what was brought on, and I think that what happened was the so called NeoCon Globalists in the Beltway who are all the various think tanks, thought that Russia could be bullied. And they kept saying, 'Oh, Russia won't do anything, Putin won't do anything'... and I was interviewed by Dimitri Simes in January of last year and I was asked point blank: "Do you think Russia will [unintelligible] do anything?" and I said "Absolutely! This is a huge danger to Russian National Security - they're not gonna sit there. The reason they went into Crimea was not just because historically it had been Russian, they didn't want it to become a NATO Naval Base in the Black Sea! I mean, there were reasons why actions were taken.

So this was foreseeable, but people in Washington miscalculated, and then when Putin went in, and essentially moved very carefully and cautiously with a goal of minimising destruction of human life and property - because he did not want a war with the Ukranian people. Everyone said 'Oh well... look at him. Look at the Russians. They're incompetent. They didn't do what we did in Iraq. They did not destroy virtually anything that did not move and then try to attack anything that did; in other words, there was no 'Shock and Awe'! Well of course not, that's not what he wanted, and it took several months for him - sadly - and his colleagues in Moscow to figure out: There's nobody to talk to. They're not gonna negotiate with us. And so we go into this new setting where he says 'We've gotta go onto a war footing. We're going to have to expand the armed forces. We're going to have to build it up and we are gong to have to go into an economy of force mode for months until we're ready to strike back.' Well, that's what's happened. And the sad part of it is that: all of it was avoidable. It was never necessary.

And remember that Mr Burns was the former ambassador to Russia - under I guess Obama - he was the one who wrote the memorandum that said 'no means nyet, or yet means no. Don't expand any further. Don't go into Ukraine'. Subsequently he was sent in the last two months to try and hammer out a deal and that's understandable why he would:
Ukraine is falling apart.
THEY are the ones who have taken horrific casualties.
They are now dragging 16 year old boys into the armed forces at gunpoint.
They are still taking heavy casualties - and 75% of their casualties have been from artillery systems... strike systems, such as rocket artillery, missiles, aviation and artillery. All of those together - 75% of their casualties - and they can't protect themselves! They don't have the air defence, they don't have the expertise and we have been feeding them, again, equipment - just enough allegedly, to keep them alive until we finally discovered 'my goodness these people are about to go under' - and that's what Secretary Austin effectively told the conference a couple of weeks ago: we've got to give them this equipment soon because the window of opportunity's closin. Soon we won't be able to affect this. Yeah of course. And it's all unnecessary and millions of people are being destroyed by this.

(never mind the environment - so much for the 'Green Agenda'!)

It seems that McGregor is not seeing the deeper agenda / intention / true reasoning for the PTB's actions and intentions / lack of real support - given the way he describes what is happening - as if the US Gov has 'only just realised' the Ukranians cannot defend themselves/don't have enough equipment.

He makes it clear though that the US has done this to Ukraine / is responsible.

It is a good talk, worth listening to IMHO.

🍃
Sometimes it is really depressing being a human being. I can only imagine how many times we have each carnated and been through the meat grinder ourselves, lifetime after lifetime, along with those we love and care for deeply.

Everything I am seeing all over the world absolutely sickens me to the core... I do my best to 'keep it in perspective' but I no longer feel remotely concerned about large space rocks. At least if they are going to hit, it will likely be quick... whatever is required to end this evil agenda, I am more and more ok with. Anything is better than witnessing this kind of utterly horrifying shite day after day so much profound trauma on the planet, and knowing there is SO much more to come if the dynamics don't change.

I guess the one thing we can always count on is: change. 🌊🌪️⚡🌏☄️🌋.... 🌳 🌈🐦🎶

A magpie is warbling its joyful song to me outside my window, immediately lifting my spirits.
I don't know what I would do without the balm and beauty of nature.
Feel so profoundly grateful for this life 💗🐦 but I'm so over the frickin' psychopaths and nut jobs.
 
@forest_light : Great job putting all of that together. Thank you! I would add that it was U.S. president Franklin Pierce who sent Russia a shipload of gunpowder, rifles, and Kentucky whiskey to support them during the Crimean War. We actually helped them take it in the first place! But who in the U.S. government actually pays attention to U.S. history?? That would be embarrassing!😂
 
To talk about MI-6. Here's what I came across yesterday
From enemies: British intelligence in early February warned the President's Office that the Kremlin had returned to the nuclear track, and the scenario of using a full-fledged strike and not only on Ukraine is being considered. Russia's withdrawal from START-3 confirms all MI6 intelligence, which means a preemptive strike may follow after the attack on Crimea.
21.02.2023 ГЛАВНОЕ из речи Путина. Пригожин ГРОЗИТ РЕВОЛЮЦИЕЙ: Минообороны РФ полностью отрезало ЧВК Вагнер от боеприпасов (14 видео)
 
A National Post article has penned a Here's Everything to date sent to Z article. Of course, Canada is highly overrepresented by Ukrainians (some more orientated to Galicia) in Parliament, so the generosity stands to reason.

Here's everything Canada has sent to Ukraine since Russia invaded

The sort version:

  • Four Leopard 2 tanks
  • A $400 million NASAMS air defence system
  • 200 Senator armoured vehicles
  • Four M-777 howitzers
  • 39 “Super Bison” armoured combat support vehicles
  • 20,000 rounds of 155 mm NATO standard artillery ammunition
  • Imagery from RADARSAT-2, the Canadian Space Agency earth observation satellite
  • Between 50 and 100 drone cameras
  • A standing deployment of 270 Canadian Armed Forces military trainers
  • 7,500 hand grenades
  • 4,500 M72 rocket launchers
  • 390,000 Individual Meal Packs
  • 100 Carl Gustav M2 recoilless rifles (with 2000 rounds of ammunition)

Whatever else we had lying around​

Amid the more high-profile shipments of howitzers or drone cameras, every once in a while Canada will load up a CC-177 Globemaster with whatever else they figure could do some good in Ukraine. This has included a shipment of 400,000 pieces of winter clothing, $10 million in winter gear such as heaters and sleeping bags, and a $7 million shipment of random small arms, including machine guns, pistols, carbines and sniper rifles.

In terms of cash injections (known):

500 Million proceeds from Ukraine Sovereignty Bond

Quotes

“As the brave people of Ukraine continue their heroic resistance to Putin’s illegal and barbaric invasion, democracies need to continue standing with Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty and democracy. And that means ensuring the Ukrainian government has the resources it needs to keep providing essential services to Ukrainians this winter. I hope the success of our Ukraine Sovereignty Bond—the world’s first bond dedicated to Ukraine—will inspire other countries to follow suit.”
- The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance

Quick facts​

  • Including the Ukraine Sovereignty Bond proceeds, Canada has now disbursed $2.45 billion in loans to Ukraine in 2022:
    • $1.95 billion through the IMF Administered Account for Ukraine:
      • $500 million disbursed today;
      • $450 million disbursed on August 17, 2022; and,
      • $1 billion disbursed on June 9, 2022.
    • $500 million in bilateral sovereign loans:
      • $300 million disbursed on April 20, 2022; and,
      • $200 million disbursed on May 6, 2022.
  • On December 13, 2022, the Government of Canada announced that it will transfer $115 million in tariff revenues collected on imports from Russia and Belarus to repair Kyiv’s power grid following repeated Russian attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
  • Canada has separately committed more than $2.5 billion in military, humanitarian, and other assistance to Ukraine this year. This brings Canada's total commitments to Ukraine to more than $5 billion.
  • The loan issued today respects the spirit of the current debt service suspension agreement agreed by the Group of Creditors of Ukraine.
  • Canada played a leading role in the creation of the IMF’s Administered Account for Ukraine, which allows donor countries to provide grants or loans to assist Ukraine in meeting its balance of payments and budgetary needs, and stabilizing the Ukrainian economy.
  • Consistent with the terms of Canada’s financial assistance to Ukraine to date, the funds provided to Ukraine cannot be used for lethal activities or purchases, and must be consistent with relevant sanctions laws and regulations. :lol:
  • Canada is providing additional support to Ukraine through its shareholdings in international financial institutions, including the IMF, the World Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Since the onset of Russia’s illegal invasion, these three institutions have together committed more than $28.5 billion to support the people of Ukraine.

Brave people now includes arming children to fight, apparently.

Meanwhile, poverty at home increases, along with all the other social governmental malfeasance that was born out of covid era et cetera.
 
Which translates as:
02/21/2023 MAIN FEATURES from Putin's speech. Prigozhin THREATENS WITH REVOLUTION: Russian Defense Ministry completely cut off PMC Wagner from ammunition (14 videos)
The part in the blog about Prigozhin has:
Prigogine recorded two hard audios of one and a half minutes each (while in the cart, in the evening in the video). In them, he hints at a revolution due to the catastrophic situation with ammunition at the front. According to him, the Ministry of Defense and senior officials purposefully deprive PMC 'Wagner' of shells and mines. Ammunition has to beg from neighboring units.
It is always possible to drive faster, but it is also more dangerous. The thing about a PMC is that they are usually subordinate to the state they fight for. Does Prigogine know that? One analyst had the opinion that after Artyomovsk [1924-2016]/Bakhmut there are many other similar UAF fortifications equally fortified behind it, so taking Bakhmut for the sake of taking it, makes little sense.
From the Putin part:
'Some people in Washington are thinking about natural nuclear weapons tests. Russia is also ready to resume nuclear weapons tests,' Putin. 'The goal of the West is to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, to end us once and for all. We will respond accordingly, because we are talking about the existence of our country,' he said.
How to understand, "natural nuclear weapons tests". Is it underground or high altitude tests, that are made to look like natural but are in fact man made? It should be possible to make an underground test and claim it was a natural earthquake.

The Military Summary Channel speculated, (he did not give a source) that many of the US nuclear weapons have expired.

More on the limited shelf life of nuclear weapons

Here is an answer from Quora that describes the concept.
https://www.quora.com/profile/Carey-Sublette
Carey Sublette
Author has 941 answers and 2.8M answer views Updated 3y
The service life, as it is called, of a weapon is a major concern and billions of dollars are spent annually by the U.S. to ensure that nuclear weapons do not deteriorate and remain functional.

If a weapon depends on tritium in any way to function normally, it will cease to do so on the time scale of no more than a couple of decades due the decay of tritium with a half-life of 12.3 years. Neutron generators used to trigger the initial fission explosion are an item that uses tritium; and if the weapon uses gas boosting (as do all U.S. weapons) then that is required for full yield. Tritium is costly so they do not load a large excess into the weapon, but instead change out the components regularly. If gas boosting fails the yield of the weapon, regardless of design yield, will drop to 300 tons; if the neutron generator fails the nuclear yield would be quite small, if any (some fission would still occur initiated by the spontaneous fission neutrons present, but in a modern weapon there are not enough elapsed generation periods available to allow them to multiply to a significant yield).
With U.S. servicing practices if tritium is not replenished the weapon will cease to function in less than 10 years time. The U.S. has recently decided to increase its tritium production and maintain a larger inventory to extend the time between servicing required,

[...]

It is of course possible to engineer a warhead for long storage life, but during the arms race this was never a consideration. Now that warhead manufacture and testing has ended in the U.S. the military, and the civilians maintaining the arsenal, are regretting that fact.

[...]
 
It is always possible to drive faster, but it is also more dangerous.
That seems to be the case, discrepancies in terms of vision of the situation and types of Battle strategies, more statements have come out regarding this topic:
Prigozhin has uploaded these images with dead Wagner members and a table where you can see a drop in the number of supplies received as the days progress:
IMG_20230222_083147_251.jpg

IMG_20230222_083147_298.jpgIMG_20230222_083146_762.jpg
“Ammunition just began to be given like everyone else”: Khodakovsky commented on the situation with ammunition for the Wagner PMC.
The problem with the supply of ammunition to PMC "Wagner" went into a wide media field, forcing the Ministry of Defense to make an official statement on this fact and refute the blocking of the supply of shells to the "musicians". Alexander Khodakovsky expressed his point of view on this situation.
According to the commander of the Vostok, the problem is not at all that the Wagnerites have ceased to be supplied with ammunition, but that they have been put on general norms, having begun to be supplied, like other units of the Russian army. They began to give to everyone. Previously, PMCs received more ammunition, they were specially allocated for it Aviation, tactical and cruise missiles, etc. And the "musicians" gave results, moving forward. Now everything has been cut.

Frankly, we envied the "Wagners" in a good way, when they had their own front-line aviation, the daily norm of two Iskanders and one Caliber (...) when they dragged prisoners from all over the country to them ... We envied, but understood that they did not give anyone such a supply - and he will give the same result as they. The result is not only the quantity

- he writes in his TG channel.

According to Khodakovsky, the general norms for the consumption of ammunition on which the Wagner was planted do not allow for a normal offensive, this also applies to units of the Russian army. As an example, he cited the situation near Ugledar, where ours deliberately reduced the daily consumption of ammunition in order to accumulate more shells for the first day of the offensive. Hence the problems with the inability to move on.

Meanwhile, there is no shortage of ammunition at the front, various sources have repeatedly reported this. The Russian military-industrial complex has managed to increase the number of shells of all calibers produced by several times, even exceeding the required volumes.

 
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