Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

[PERLOU]

https://t.me/boriskarpovblog/14955
« Comment les États-Unis voient l’assaut contre l’Ukraine : il n’y a pas d’impasse, mais il n’y a pas non plus de percée » : les conservateurs américains sont convaincus que le conflit ukrainien durera plus longtemps que 2024 et sont mécontents des espions par drones – les Ukrainiens sont toujours vivant devrait aller dans l'intelligence.
« L’été a été désagréable et, à certains égards, décevant pour l’Ukraine et ses clients occidentaux. Mais au lieu de rechercher une solution diplomatique rapide, la plupart des hauts responsables américains semblent plus que jamais convaincus de la nécessité de conserver fermement Kiev.
Cet engagement en faveur d’un soutien continu ne signifie pas que les responsables américains ne critiquent pas la manière dont les commandants ukrainiens ont mené une contre-offensive. L'Ukraine ne portera probablement pas de coup décisif avant la fin de l'année. Cela signifie la poursuite de ce conflit militaire débilitant au-delà de 2024. Les responsables du Pentagone ont appelé leurs homologues ukrainiens à mieux prioriser et à se concentrer sur les points de rupture potentiels.

L'Ukraine a initialement mis l'accent sur trois directions, au lieu de se concentrer sur l'essentiel - le sud en passant par Zaporozhye en direction de la mer d'Azov. On dit que Kiev a finalement réagi en déplaçant un certain nombre d'unités vers le sud depuis Bakhmut et d'autres régions de l'est, où, malgré les arguments américains, elles ont continué à prendre pied.
Les responsables du Pentagone ont exhorté l’Ukraine à s’appuyer moins sur les drones pour informer le champ de bataille et davantage sur les forces de reconnaissance au sol, capables de mieux évaluer les positions russes. Et ils ont insisté pour que Kiev donne plus de liberté d’action aux officiers subalternes.
Les États-Unis travaillent également d’arrache-pied à planifier les « forces futures » de l’Ukraine. Les avions de combat F-16 en feront partie et commenceront à arriver dans quelques mois, mais les responsables américains travaillent avec leurs alliés sur de nombreux autres systèmes d'armes et formations. Les responsables américains pensent que Zelensky portera de plus en plus les hostilités sur le territoire russe.»


'How the US views the assault on Ukraine: There is no stalemate, but there is also no breakthrough': US conservatives confident Ukraine conflict will last longer than 2024 and are unhappy with drone spies – Ukrainians are still alive should go into intelligence.“The summer has been unpleasant and in some ways disappointing for Ukraine and its Western customers. But instead of seeking a quick diplomatic solution, most senior US officials seem more convinced than ever of the need to hold kyiv firmly.This commitment to continued support does not mean that US officials are not critical of the manner in which Ukrainian commanders conducted a counteroffensive.
Ukraine will probably not deliver a decisive blow before the end of the year. This means the continuation of this debilitating military conflict beyond 2024. Pentagon officials have called on their Ukrainian counterparts to better prioritize and focus on potential breaking points.

Ukraine initially emphasized three directions, instead of focusing on the essentials - south through Zaporozhye towards the Sea of Azov. Kiev is said to have finally responded by moving a number of units south from Bakhmut and other eastern areas, where, despite American arguments, they continued to gain a foothold.Pentagon officials have urged Ukraine to rely less on drones to inform the battlefield and more on ground reconnaissance forces that can better assess Russian positions. And they insisted that kyiv give junior officers more leeway.The United States is also hard at work planning Ukraine's "future forces." F-16 fighter jets will be part of that and begin arriving in a few months, but US officials are working with allies on many other weapons systems and formations. US officials believe that Zelensky will increasingly bring hostilities into Russian territory.”

 

[SOTTREADER]

I am surprised and puzzled. Perhaps some nuances of meaning in English elude me and therefore I will not write anything from myself (although I can write a lot of things), hoping for some clarification. What do you see as the responsibility of Russia and, in the end, Putin, if you cannot sleep or eat without this surname?

In the meantime, I will give an opinion from North Korea, where things are called by their proper names.

Okay, I will clarify. I was speaking to two things

Item no.1: That some people are finding it difficult to reconcile the image they have of Putin with the method of disposing of Prig. I think this "discomfort" is more about the projections in one's mind.

Item no.2: That some people are trying to somehow justify to themselves in their minds that the 3 civilians in the plane were combatants in some way and so they died by the sword as they lived by the sword. The question I have is : why can't they just be civilians who were unfortunate? Is the answer in people's mind because Putin cannot take actions knowingly that lead to some civilian casualties? My immediate answer to this is that this is a naive thought. Of course Putin will / can take action that leads to some civilian casualties if the actions serve some greater purpose to his aims.

Personally I don't think Putin is a saint but I also don't think he's a madman or pathological (psycho, narcissist etc).

Lastly, the degree of Putin's involvement also is worth considering. As head of state, he would only have been involved to the extent of not stopping the actions others had put into motion if he heard about them beforehand or approving by way of giving his nod if asked directly. The dirty work would have been left to others who have no doubt done this sort of work before.

 

[Keit]

This information strongly suggests that the MoD adapted to an unexpected situation, which fits with the 'rogue element' scenario. It also highlights that this took place in a way which inconvenienced the Russian leadership; if they had given the order, a different approach and timing most likely would have been taken.

The thing is that according to the comments to the TG post, people see the information as proof that either Putin did it or MoD with Putin's ok.

What they also say that now the whole "Russian influence in Africa" project is going to be destroyed because of this, because MoD is unable to take matters into their hands in an effective way. Obviously this opinion comes from supporters of Wagner remaining independent. They also see MoD's moves as a "hostile takeover" of Wagner.

The same TG channel also posted a link to Al Arabia article that was posted yesterday. It basically says the same as the TG post. Al Arabia is based in Saudi Arabia, and it also appears to be pro-Western. Or at least it often cites pro-Western sources. The article is dated 27.08.23.

From Libya to Syria..Moscow informs the Wagner operatives that they have "withdrew"

The Wagner Private Military Group's nail-biting career outside of Russia has apparently begun.

The Russian Deputy Minister of Defense, Yunis Bek Yevkurov, landed in Damascus after Libya, calling for the expulsion of Wagner fighters from the country, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, today, Sunday.

1 month max

He explained that the senior Russian official called on Syrian military leaders to inform the Wagner fighters of the need to withdraw from the country or join the Russian army in Syria.

He also added that he discussed the Wagner file in addition to several other issues with the Syrian leaders. He stated that the Syrian Minister of Defense, Ali Mahmoud Abbas, had already met with the leaders of Wagner, and offered them to surrender their weapons and withdraw from the country, within a month as a maximum, or to join the Russian army in Syria and work under his command.

In addition, the director of the observatory, Rami Abdel Rahman, explained in exclusive statements to Al-Arabiya / Al-Hadath that Wagner forces are deployed around the oil wells in the Syrian Badia and the countryside of Hama, stressing that they will be replaced soon.

He also stressed that the Russian defense asked Damascus to inform Wagner of the need to withdraw.

economic gain

This information coincides with others that previously reported that a Russian delegation also visited Libya last week, informing military actors there of the need to stop dealing with Prigozhin, in an attempt to rein in the man "economically".

Informed sources indicated that the visit came as part of efforts led by the Kremlin to formally control Prigozhin's sprawling network of companies, according to what was reported by the "Wall Street Journal".

It also revealed that Yevkurov, who headed the delegation, was the same man Prigozhin publicly rebuked when Wagner seized the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov on June 24, during the coup.

Moscow also sent messages to some African countries, calling on them to distance themselves from the leader of Wagner, including the Central African Republic, after the sixty-year-old landed in the presidential palace, reassuring President Faustin-Archange Touadera that his aborted rebellion in Russia in late June would not prevent him from bringing New fighters and business investment to Central Africa, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Putin had personally told the CAR president that it was time to distance himself from Prigozhin, and when he visited Prigozhin's hometown of Touadéra in St. Petersburg for a conference last month, he declined to take a selfie with the controversial leader.

After the great economic empire built by Prigozhin, many quarters seem to be drooling. New mercenary companies, run by Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, are vying for Wagner contracts.

Putin also recently ordered the group's members to officially join the army and take an oath of allegiance, after their leader was killed.

Also on Al Arabia you can find the following article dated 23.08.23. But the content indicates that it was written and published prior to the crash.

Wagner trying to recruit in Africa and Middle East, but salaries cut: Think tank

Russian mercenary Wagner group is advertising jobs in Africa and the Middle East, however new recruits are being offered lower salaries than before, Washington-based think tank Institute of Study of War (ISW) wrote in an assessment.

The Think tank cited open-source intelligence monitoring group “All Eyes on Wagner” reporting that Wagner has been advertising jobs in the Middle East and Africa following chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Monday claim that Wagner is expanding its presence in Africa.

“The advertisement reportedly offers a monthly salary of 150,000 rubles (about $1,500) for jobs in the Middle East and 195,000 to 250,000 rubles (about $2,050 to $2,640) for jobs in Africa,” ISW said.

It added: “A Wagner recruitment Telegram channel consistently advertised the monthly salary for Wagner positions in Ukraine as 240,000 rubles (about $2,530) since the start of 2023.”

The think tank analyzed: “The significant decrease in salary is consistent with recent reports that Wagner is financially struggling and may be losing personnel due to salary cuts.”

Earlier in August, the British ministry of defense said in an intelligence update that Wagner is trying to save money on salaries because of the financial pressure of likely being cut off from Kremlin funding. “The Wagner Group is likely moving towards a down-sizing and reconfiguration process, largely to save on staff salary expenses at a time of financial pressure,” the UK ministry said.

ISW added that it continues to assess that Wagner‘s new recruitment effort may indicate that Prigozhin is attempting to secure a contract in Africa and deploy existing and new personnel from Russia and Belarus, actions that Prigozhin may see as Wagner’s final option to maintain its independence from the Russian ministry of defense.

Meanwhile, a Russian ministry of defense delegation arrived in Libya on Tuesday, ISW assessed that “the arrival of a Russian ministry of defense delegation in Libya indicates that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu likely maintains his reported objectives of taking over Russia’s relationships with African countries and replacing Wagner with Russian ministry of defense-affiliated private military companies (PMCs).”

Notice that in both articles the information comes from the Western sources. It doesn't mean that the information is inaccurate. But since it's pro-Western, we should at least expect an appropriate angle of delivering information. I also didn't have time to check their claims that Putin personally warned CAR president that he should keep away from Prigozhin. The translation appears to be wonky there, but we can see that indeed it wasn't the CAR president, but the ambassador who shook Prigozhin's hand.

In any case, based on these two articles it looks that the Russian MoD delegation arrived to Libya on the 22nd of August, and afterwards (and after the crash) went to Syria.

Or Prig on board wanted to land in Moscow and they were warned a number of times that they are not allowed/welcomed to land in Moscow, and Prig (or someone else) ignored it and kept on flying to land in Moscow?

Only they were flying FROM Moscow to Saint Petersburg.



What we can understand from the above two articles, that only one day after the MoD delegation arrived to Libya and started their heavy pressuring of Wagner, the plane with Prigozhin and other heads of Wagner was crashed.

If this kind of story happened for example in US, we would immediately think that this was deliberate and an inside job in order to remove the most heavy obstacle to the "negotiations". So it is indeed an interesting and potentially "damning" coincidence.

The question remains if this was indeed done by someone from MoD or intelligence. If this was deliberate and approved, to be exact. Or it wasn't sanctioned and is in fact a "rogue operation".

The sentiment of those who commented on the TG post, that now the situation on the ground in Syria, Libya and Africa is very shaky. That MoD doesn't yet have a replacement for the leaders that were killed, and that dismantling Wagner will create a vaccum that may lead to Russia loosing everything it gained in the region.

So from this perspective it isn't clear if the removal of the obsticle will make things easier, or it actually complicates matters more and forces MoD to move much more quickly than was planned. But maybe the negative analysis is the Western angle and MoD is prepared to deal with things. Will see how it goes.

Regarding the crash, if we use Occam's razor, we can assume that only those who are either close to Wagner heads and/or are aware of their movements and security measures could plant a bomb or two bombs on board in such a short time.

Item no.1: That some people are finding it difficult to reconcile the image they have of Putin with the method of disposing of Prig. I think this "discomfort" is more about the projections in one's mind.

I can only clarify my view regarding this. In my mind Putin is definitely not a saint. There is a saying in Russian that every doctor has their own cemetery. The same saying can apply to ex-KGB/FSB agents/presidents. But it's still possible to recognize what kind of style the person has, and what is their prefarable way of doing things.

While the West has been working really hard to present Putin as a ruthless dictator, who isn't shy about ordering assassinations of his so called opponents using various exotic means, in reality it's possible to see that Putin usually chooses a more subtle approach. And yes, he will avoid unnecessary casualties as much as possible, not because of his "meek/saint nature", but because it isn't in his style. He doesn't appear to employ crude tactics.

That's why the possibility of him directly ordering this specific mode of removing Prigozhin (as was presented before) doesn't look plausible. But it doesn't mean that the same couldn't be achieved by him being aware of the information and not actively stopping it from happening. This would be more congruent with his style. Add to this the possibility of him warning Prigozhin. According to Lukashenko, Prigozhin told him that Putin warned him about the assassination attempt. If what Lukashenko said is true, then Putin essentially did what he could within the "rules of the game". It's possible that Prigozhin also understood this.

 

[Keit]

There is the following new information from the same TG channel that may indicate that sudden death of Prigozhin and other Wagner leaders created problems for MoD plans in the region:

The situation itself is now so (to put it mildly) extraordinary that it does not matter who is going to squeeze what out. It must be done very smoothly and discreetly, so as not to provoke the collapse of the entire architecture of Russian influence.

The complexity of the situation is added by the fact that the locals (both in the Middle East and Africa) are not complete idiots and will try not to miss the chance to bargain for their own terms, and if possible, to nullify their obligations without formally refusing to work with Russia.

As a consequence, in this turmoil and confusion now Russia as a whole risks to lose (or reduce) not only its presence but also its image, which, as I observe, is already happening.

The role of the "elephant in the china shop" is still effectively played by the Defense Ministry, which, I think, originally planned a covert and lightning fast operation to present everything to the public (and, in fact, to VVP) as a fait accompli. But the plan was spoiled by two things:

- the straightforwardness of the executors
- and the sudden death of EWP and the entire group leadership.

Poetically speaking, where the cunning and sweet-talking diplomat Odysseus was needed, the paratrooper Heracles was sent with a club.

As a result - everyone is agitated and tense, and the risk of chain reaction (on this vast territory) from any sudden nervous movements is increased. But let's hope it doesn't happen.

And this:

One important point about the Russian Defense Ministry being caught off guard by Prigozhin's death.

Don't forget that the Wagner group in Africa and Syria is still completely cut off from supplies and resupply, thanks to a ban by the Defense Ministry and the Foreign Ministry (at the request of the Defense Ministry).

Airplanes are banned in Syria - which is a major hub. Assuming they knew something in advance, it makes no sense at all. By all indications, the plan was to simply cut off the supply, making life difficult and then work further along the lines, pulling the available personnel.

By the way, now, I think, militants-opponents of Wagner in Africa, having realized (if they have not already realized) - will become active. The moment is very good for them.

If the above is true, then there is a higher chance that it was a rogue operation. Heck, even foreign influence can't be dismissed, because chaos and weaker Russian presence in the region would be very good for them.

 

[luc]

Good discussion here (just the first 10 minutes) that aligns with what we said on the show yesterday: Prigozhin signed his own death warrant by challenging the authority of the Kremlin. The only question is around the direct involvement of Putin. I think what's most likely is that some element within the Russian military or intel establishment took the initiative on it. Putin was perhaps generally aware of moves in that direction, but decided not to do anything about it.

Yes, someone mentioned this possibility before, i.e. deciding not to relay any intel anymore, knowing what this would probably lead to. Either the intelligence apparatus took this as a subtle clue to go ahead (I suppose a lot in the spook world is about such subtle clues), or some of the many enemies of Prig (oligarchs, military etc.). It would also give Putin plausible deniability, while those familiar with the security apparatus will know what's up.

 

[Ryan]

I think what's most likely is that some element within the Russian military or intel establishment took the initiative on it. Putin was perhaps generally aware of moves in that direction, but decided not to do anything about it.

This looks like the scenario that best fits with both the facts we currently know about, and the character of all the participants, osit.

According to Lukashenko, Prigozhin told him that Putin warned him about the assassination attempt. If what Lukashenko said is true, then Putin essentially did what he could within the "rules of the game". It's possible that Prigozhin also understood this.

This is mentioned in Russian TG, however is this referring to only a few days ago, or back in June when Lukashenko was mediating between Wagner and the Kremlin after the coup attempt?

"I'll just give you another example. The last time we flew to the Emirates, I received very serious information from sources, deeper than which there is no such thing, about an attempt on Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Within two hours (I instructed), they found the Russian ambassador in the Emirates, called him to me. I gave him a cipher message to the Kremlin to Putin and Bortnikov about the upcoming attempt on Prigozhin," the Belarusian leader shared insiders.

After some time, Alexander Lukashenko asked Yevgeny Prigozhin if this information had reached him. The founder of the Wagner PMCS confirmed that the Russian President had warned him about the impending assassination attempt.

If this was from June, it's possible that Putin may have received information about another attempt, and decided that this time he would not take any action, given that Prig was continuing to cause trouble and showing no indication of heeding anything Putin had to say.

 

[Keit]

If this was from June, it's possible that Putin may have received information about another attempt, and decided that this time he would not take any action, given that Prig was continuing to cause trouble and showing no indication of heeding anything Putin had to say.

Lukashenko siad that he found out about an assissination atempt last time he went to Emrates, which was in the end of January. Within 2 hours he already worked on delivering this information to Putin and Bortnikov (head of FSB). Some time later he asked Prigozhin if he received the information, and Prigozhin confirmed it. It's not clear when some time later it was.

But it's possible that it was before the "coup", and also possible that Putin had additional information. It's also possible that he either shared it or didn't. It doesn't really matter, as long as he didn't provide protection. osit.

 

[Ryan]

If the above is true, then there is a higher chance that it was a rogue operation. Heck, even foreign influence can't be dismissed, because chaos and weaker Russian presence in the region would be very good for them.

This could also be an opportunity for Russia, though. If chaotic elements acted to destabilise the situation in Niger, the Russians could pivot to formal military assistance under the guise of 'honoring previous deals'.

 

[youlik]

Okay, I will clarify. I was speaking to two things

On your point 1, I probably agree. Although this is not my case, I fully admit that something like this can happen to someone.
Your point 2 for me is divided into two separate segments and both of them are not indisputable for me.
The first segment is that people who are close to characters like Prigozhin always take risks and always this risk is justified by something. If there are family ties, then this speaks for itself. If we are talking about salaried employees, then in such situations they receive much higher pay, which justifies the risk. If we don't have either, then the one who got "dealt" in a similar situation is just a complete idiot. Based on this, I am sure that it is not correct to consider the crew of the aircraft in this case "just civilians who were unlucky". These people deliberately took risks.
I am writing all this based on personal experience. The fact is that we had a whole bunch of similar situations in the 90s. The circumstances of many cases were immediately or not immediately known, which allowed us to draw some conclusions. Thank God, I didn't happen to be a direct target, but in a number of cases I was close to such a "target".
Now as for the second segment. You write

Personally I don't think Putin is a saint but I also don't think he's a madman or pathological (psycho, narcissist etc).

Well, don't you think Putin is a fool? I mean, one of the main, cornerstone conditions for Russia's victory or, at least, not defeat in the current confrontation with the collective West is the consolidation of Russian society, as Putin himself has repeatedly said. Without this condition, an almost guaranteed catastrophe. And what do we have as a result of this plane crash? We have spontaneous memorials all over the country in memory of the "great warrior", who, by the way, was in conflict with the state in the person of some of its bodies with unpredictable consequences. How do you like that? And after all, it was not at all difficult to predict this in advance. From this, I conclude that whoever committed this terrorist attack directly or indirectly struck both Putin and Russia. Even if they were state people or structures, they were the real enemies of Russia.
Next you write

Of course Putin will / can take action that leads to some civilian casualties if the actions serve some greater purpose to his aims.

Here, in my opinion, there can be no doubt. It is enough to recall Putin's words about "killing in the toilet" and, for example, the murder of Yandarbiyev in Doha. There, the group staged a mini-war using grenade launchers and machine guns. This figure had very good security and apparently there was no other way to complete the task.

Spoiler: Russian spelling

По Вашему пункту 1 я пожалуй соглашусь. Хоть это и не мой случай, я вполне допускаю, что с кем то подобное может происходить.
Ваш пункт 2 для меня разбивается на два отдельных сегмента и оба из них для меня не бесспорны.
Первый сегмент заключается в том, что люди находящиеся рядом с персонажами, подобными Пригожину, всегда рискуют и всегда этот риск чем то оправдывается. Если присутствуют родственные связи, то это говорит само за себя. Если мы говорим о наемных сотрудниках, то в таких ситуациях они получают гораздо более высокую оплату, которая оправдывает риск. Если мы не имеем ни того ни другого, то тогда тот, кто попал "под раздачу" в подобной ситуации просто полный идиот. На основании этого я уверен, что считать экипаж самолета в данном случае "просто гражданскими, которым не повезло" не правильно. Эти люди сознательно шли на риск.
Все это я пишу на основе личного опыта. Дело в том, что у нас в 90е годы подобных ситуаций была просто целая куча. Обстоятельства многих случаев сразу или не сразу становились известны, что позволяло делать некоторые выводы. Мне, слава богу, не довелось быть в качестве прямой мишени, но в ряде случаев я был рядом с такой "мишенью".
Теперь что касается второго сегмента. Вы пишете
Хорошо, а дураком Вы Путина не считаете? Я имею ввиду, что одно из основных, краеугольных условий победы или, как минимум, не поражения России в текущем противостоянии с коллективным Западом является консолидация Российского общества, о чем сам Путин говорил неоднократно. Без этого условия почти гарантированная катастрофа. И что мы имеем в результате этого крушения самолета? Мы имеем стихийные, народные мемориалы по всей стране в память "великого воина", который между прочим был в конфликте с государством в лице некоторых его органов с непредсказуемыми последствиями. Как вам такое? И ведь такое совсем не трудно было предсказать заранее. Из этого я делаю вывод, что тот кто совершил этот теракт прямо или косвенно наносил удар и по Путину и по России. Пусть даже это были государственные люди или структуры, это были настоящие враги России.
Далее Вы пишете
Вот здесь сомнений, на мой взгляд, не может быть. Достаточно вспомнить слова Путина про "мочить в сортире" и , например, убийсво Яндарбиева в Дохе. Там группа устроила мини войну с использованием гранатометов и автоматов. Очень хорошая охрана была у этого деятеля и по другому выполнить задачу видимо не было возможности.

 

[mantle]

Personally after all the gathering of information and of so many viewpoints and theories and grateful I am for them having learned so much but I now find this Prigozhin affair rather tiresome. Enough water under the bridge. Whatever faults gifts treasons and presumptions this bold racketeer had he is now dead. Whomever insured it did it with aplomb. As for Russia and Putin its natural leader...What I find most staggering and most insidious and what concerns me most is how the entangled West approaches World War 3 against both Russia and Putin. Done with palpable fury. I believe it is because no one likes a loser and much less the losers themselves. Ukraine already looks like a crash today. Its visible spasms are clear for all to see. The European Union , The United States, Britain, all losers in spite of all their hate. Their stockpiles of vilification grow by the day and all three are more than capable of self sabotage. That is very worrying. These creators of humanitarian catastrophe mean to have their way.

 

[Windmill knight]

I can only clarify my view regarding this. In my mind Putin is definitely not a saint. There is a saying in Russian that every doctor has their own cemetery. The same saying can apply to ex-KGB/FSB agents/presidents. But it's still possible to recognize what kind of style the person has, and what is their prefarable way of doing things.

Agreed. In a video someone posted on this thread, Scott Ritter mentions the case of a political opponent of Putin who was killed (someone here probably remembers his name). Apparently someone wanted to score points with Putin by ordering the assassination - instead, Putin was furious.

It's not that Putin wouldn't have anyone killed. He is most of all a patriot and if he thought it was good for Russia he certainly would. He does have the Russian army in Ukraine and obviously that gets a lot of people killed on a daily basis, but he does that because he thinks that's the lesser evil. In my opinion, the point is that if Putin had wanted to get rid of the Wagner leaders, he had many other more subtle or even legal options, which is why I don't think he ordered this one. But someone else within the Russian power structure might have done it, for sure.

 

[thorbiorn]

If the above is true, then there is a higher chance that it was a rogue operation. Heck, even foreign influence can't be dismissed, because chaos and weaker Russian presence in the region would be very good for them.

Regarding the question of who did it, and how it happened, Lukashenko said a few days ago, according to this article: Prigozhin didn’t request security guarantees – Lukashenko

Lukashenko also insisted that Putin had nothing to do with the incident that apparently led to Prigozhin’s death, despite sections of the media attempting to pin the blame on the Russian leader.

“I can’t say who did it. I wouldn’t even become a lawyer for my older brother,” Lukashenko said. “However, I know Putin. He is prudent, very calm, and is even rather slow in making decisions on other, less complex issues.”

“That’s why I can’t imagine that Putin is behind this,” the Belarusian leader added, claiming that if the plane crash was the result of sabotage, it was “too rough” and an example of “unprofessional work.”

Lukashenko is also a politician, so what he says, does not necessarily reveal what he truly knows, though unprofessional work is more along the line of criminal elements.

Among the enemies of Wagner was/is British intelligence, and they wanted to do something about it: MI6 to Send Ukrainian Subversive and Punitive Unit to Africa

08/16/2023 Global Euronews
The British intelligence service MI6 has prepared to send to Africa a sabotage and punitive detachment of Ukrainian militants, whose task is to counter the cooperation of countries in this region with Russia, a military-diplomatic source told RIA Novosti.

That was published a week before the plane came down on August 23, the sixtieth day since the mutiny on June 24, (If we count 6 days remaining in June, 31 days in July and 23 in August).

Besides viewing the event in a Russia vs not Russia, inside, outside and so on, one could also take the hyperdimensional perspective. If 4 D STS forces, have some interests to attend to, can one rule out they would use favour thoughts, ideas, plans and executions that would favour their plans?

No matter what the investigation will say, the Western parties would like a long war

Senator Mitt Romney - to help the Ukrainians is about the best national defence spending I think we’ve ever done

https://twitter.com/x/status/1695183212174266556

Quoted in
Using Ukraine to fight Russia offers great value – US Senator

“Russia being weakened weakens their ally China,” [...]“And by the way, being able to take an amount that equals about 5% of our military budget... to help the Ukrainians is about the best national defense spending I think we’ve ever done.”
[...]
We’re losing no lives in Ukraine. And the Ukrainians are fighting heroically against Russia, that has 1,500 nuclear weapons aimed at us. So, we are diminishing and devastating the Russian military for a very small amount of money.”

And from Canadian PM, Justin Trudeau: Ukraine conflict may be lengthy – Canadian PM (Bloomberg article)

“Certainly from the conversations we’ve had at the G7 and NATO, we are ready for a war that will take as long as it needs to, because we cannot and must not let Russia win,” he added.

And Zelensky is prepared for a long war
Zelensky admits he fears being abandoned by West

In a TV interview on Sunday, Zelensky insisted that Ukraine is prepared for a “long fight” against Russia, provided it could mitigate the level of casualties.

A long fight is okay, but elections in 2024

DruschbaFM - English

🇺🇸 Zelensky snapped back at US pressure to hold elections in Ukraine in 2024 "I wouldn't like to fantasise that we would live without elections for three or five or seven years. I don't want [people] to have the attitude that the government is holding on to power. I'm not holding on to...

t.me

Zelensky snapped back at US pressure to hold elections in Ukraine in 2024

"I wouldn't like to fantasise that we would live without elections for three or five or seven years. I don't want [people] to have the attitude that the government is holding on to power. I'm not holding on to anything. I would like to hold elections," the Kiev regime's ringleader said.

Zelensky put the following conditions to the West:

Elections are possible if the US and the EU are ready to provide us with the 5 billion needed to organise presidential elections in the country.
"I will not take this money from the defence budget."

West to organise full-fledged elections among all Ukrainians abroad;

Zelensky suggested that "Western observers" should go to the front line instead of Ukrainians to organise elections among the participants of military operations.
"Observers should be in the trenches if we want the elections to be legitimate".

I do think the American way of insisting on elections in Ukraine in 2024 could be unrealistic, at least if they want to continue destroying the country. It is more for their own sake of hypocritically being able to say that Ukraine is a free and democratic country that soon can be considered for NATO and the EU.

What a long war also means is continuous bleeding of EU economies, while they alienate themselves from many other parts of the world. The death of the Wagner bosses, and whether there are elections in Ukraine in 2024 are unlikely to change that.

 

[thorbiorn]

Card reading for Zelensky on August 24 2023
This is actually quite on the money, regarding Zelensky, that he brings harm to Ukraine, and that both he and his cronies are in for the money, even if less than a card reader would be qualified to say what she does.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1695853252687122653

 

[Possibility of Being]

If the above is true, then there is a higher chance that it was a rogue operation. Heck, even foreign influence can't be dismissed, because chaos and weaker Russian presence in the region would be very good for them.

My top hypothesis from the day one on was, and still is, that the assassination had nothing to do with Prigozhyn's mutiny. Putin might have lost trust (understandable) and wouldn't allow Wagner any military operation too close to Russia's borders, but he guaranteed immunity to all Wagner fighters who took part in the march, and to Prigozhyn himself. And Putin is known of keeping his word. I know the situation is more complex that that, but there are other factors pointing in a different direction.

In short, my first suspects are among those for whom Prigozhyn became too strong competitor in Africa (mostly) and Asia. Those are both, state and non-state agents. Both, Russian and foreign. I think keeping a close eye on upcoming events in those regions can give us a clue sooner or later.

When it comes to the narrative that Russia can easily take it over, I'm not convinced. There was a reason for the biggest PMC to be sent there. Not much can be done officially by the Russian state and army. Not to mention funds needed for such operations out of which not all can come from a state.

TG channel Readovka posted "The latest Flight of the Valkyries - what the future holds for Prigozhin's empire" text, here is an excerpt, transl.

The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin was a predictable and expected event - he was a desired target for all the intelligence agencies of the world, as well as for many personal enemies. He was constantly testing death for strength even in places where it was unnecessary for people of his status: he recorded stand-ups under shelling, went to the red zone, personally conducted negotiations, from which he could easily not return alive, with representatives of the darkest organisations and structures.

But at the same time, security measures around the businessman and head of PMC "Wagner" have always been built exemplary, so at first one could not believe in what happened and wanted to find another media manoeuvre of Prigozhyn in it. This was the case in Popasnaya, when he used himself as a decoy and provoked a strike on the former headquarters of the "Wagnerites" in order to "capture" the Himars missile for examination.

Rybar was wondering how things will develop in Africa:

One of the main questions after the crash of Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane is what will happen to the African projects of PMC "Wagner"? In addition to the safety of the logistics system, much will depend on the initiative of the leaders involved in affairs on the continent, including the leaders of the region's states themselves.

In the case of Mali and Burkina Faso, which cut off public ties with Western countries, there are no such concerns.

This is not the case, for example, with the authorities of the Central African Republic.

On the one hand, certain sources in Fosten-Arkange Touadera's entourage have already started to state that the possible death of Yevgeny Prigozhin will have no effect on ties with Russia, which continues to provide security in the region.

After all, it was the personal initiative of the leaders of PMC "Wagner" that saved the president of the Central African Republic from the pro-French coup of late 2020. Then just six hours after a call to Prigozhin, the first few hundred fighters were transferred from Libya and stopped the movement of rebels to the capital, and later - liberated most of the country.

However, both before and after these events Touadera was in no hurry to sever ties with the French or the local UN mission. He tried to convince the Russian side that co-operation with the former metropolis allowed foreign humanitarian and financial aid, which were very important for the population.

One thing is certain: if Russia for some reason stops paying sufficient attention to its projects in CAR, the president of this country will be the first to take steps to fully return to the French orbit of influence.

And in such a case, the leaders of other states in the region will clearly follow him.

So far and from what I can see, most observers noticed that it's the MoD and associated structures that seem increasing in power, and it's not about military power.

 

[Siberia]

My top hypothesis from the day one on was, and still is, that the assassination had nothing to do with Prigozhyn's mutiny. Putin might have lost trust (understandable) and wouldn't allow Wagner any military operation too close to Russia's borders, but he guaranteed immunity to all Wagner fighters who took part in the march, and to Prigozhyn himself. And Putin is known of keeping his word. I know the situation is more complex that that, but there are other factors pointing in a different direction.

Yes, those are my thoughts exactly. Putin would not hesitate to eliminate rogue elements when needed, the real traitors and enemies of the state. We have seen those examples in Chechnya and elsewhere.

But like you said, Putin is known of keeping his word. We have seen multiple examples when Putin doesn't touch well-known traitors and enemies after their decades-long dirty business, only because he promised them safety at some point. Such examples include Ksenia Sobchak, Anatoly Chubais, and now also Vladimir Zelensky.

Putin and Lukashenko both publicly promised Prigozhin safety, so it seems unlikely that they would just break their word so easily and demonstratively.

In short, my first suspects are among those for whom Prigozhyn became too strong competitor in Africa (mostly) and Asia. Those are both, state and non-state agents. Both, Russian and foreign. I think keeping a close eye on upcoming events in those regions can give us a clue sooner or later.

Same here. It also reminds me of the recent session where the C's warned us "to watch Africa". They actually told about it in the context of earthquakes, but now we are also witnessing Africa "shaking" in the political and military way as well. It seems to me that Africa and it's riches may have been the major motivation to remove Prigozhin from the picture.

That said, it's quite possible that some factions of the Russian government were involved as well.