Rising fluxes of cosmic rays inside the solar system

mrtn

Dagobah Resident
from yesterday (2021 Mar 19 1230 UTC)
The solar wind parameters are expected to
become enhanced in the next 24 hours
, due to the effect from the corotating
interaction region (CIR) and high-speed stream associated with the negative
polarity coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on the 17th
March.

Geomagnetic conditions were locally at quiet and globally quiet to
unsettled levels (local K Dourbes 1-2 and NOAA Kp 0-3). Towards the end of
the 19th March or early on the 20th, geomagnetic conditions are expected to
increase to active levels, possibly reaching minor storm conditions. This
is because of the expected arrival of a high-speed stream
caused by the
negative polarity coronal hole that crossed the central solar meridian on
the 17th March.
K-Index 7 (as shown for 'College') is pretty high I think, but the others - including 'estimated planetary' - are still at 6, wich is strong but not the end of the world. Happened earlier this year already.
Here is a link for the image posted by Deliverance (thanks for the heads-up btw)
 

mrtn

Dagobah Resident
Forgot to post the current sidc ticker:
FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) 2021 Mar 20
11:05:39

The fast flow associated with the extension to the southern polar Coronal
Hole, which crossed the central meridian on Mar 17, has now arrived. The
solar wind speed has increased up to the current value of 540 km/s, and the
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field became predominantly
negative from 05 UT, with a minimum value of -20 nT. This rather strong
southward field concurrent with the fast solar wind produced geomagnetic
storm, NOAA reported Kp=6 and local stations at Dourbes reported K=5. The
high speed stream is expected to persist until Mar 22 and further minor to
moderate geomagnetic storms can not be excluded, especially if Bz component
remains negative for long period of time.
 

Gary

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Note that - once again - such a novel cosmic-planetary 'weather' phenomenon as this cannot be explained simply by 'solar activity'. As Laura pointed out many years ago, something is 'grounding' the solar system.

The latest video from Adapt 2030 relates to this topic:

Magnetic Anomalies Across the Solar System​


Saturn's poles and equator glow brighter with changes and space hurricanes and Arctic lightning intensify. Rare EF4 tornadoes in Georgia, record cold thunderstorm tops and jet fuel freezing in engines as low as 25,000 ft all point to a changing atmosphere brought about by a stepdown in solar activity.

More signs that a dramatic shift is occurring in our atmosphere - and in those of other planets in our solar system. Some related articles published on SOTT include:
 

mrtn

Dagobah Resident
Geomagnetic storms are possible on April 25th:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters say that G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible on April 25th when a coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled in our direction yesterday by a C3.8-class flare from sunspot AR2816 (details below). If the geomagnetic storm occurs as predicted, auroras could dip into northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.

https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov
Direct Hit: An Earth-directed #solarstorm is coming! NASA prediction model shows impact early April 25. Coronagraph shows a full-halo (teal line) ring around the Sun confirming the storm is Earth directed. Expect amateur #radio & #GPS reception issues & #aurora to mid-latitudes!

 

mrtn

Dagobah Resident
There was a storm yesterday, kp index went up to 7.
FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) 2021 May 12
16:14:01

The fast forward shock that reach Earth at 05:49 UT caused NOAA Kp index
value of 7 (strong geomagnetic storm) for the synoptic period of 12:00 -
15:00UT. For the synoptic period of 15:00 - 18:00 UT the index value
dropped to 6 (moderate geomagnetic storm). The local K Dourbes index value
was 6 (moderate geomagnetic storm) between 14:00-16:00 UT. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline significantly in the next 24 hours.


Screenshot_2021-05-13_07-23-54.png
An interplanetary shock was observed at the DSCOVR spacecraft at 12/0547 UTC, announcing the arrival of the forecasted 09 May CME.


Screenshot_2021-05-13_07-24-30.png

Screenshot_2021-05-13_07-24-53.png
 

JLynne

The Force is Strong With This One

Thanks for posting this information, mrtn.

KP7 scale is equivalent to a level G3 geomagnetic storm which can produce power outages, GPS problems, transformer failures/fires. Thinking with all the turmoil, folks who aren't familiar with Space Weather may spread rumors.

I'm linking a YouTube report from Ben Davidson.

Also a link from NOAA showing the various effects on systems of geomagnetic storm levels and how they relate to the KP index measurements. I find the PDF scale particularly helpful for understanding and highly recommend taking a look it if anyone hasn't seen it before:

Here's the vid:
 

JLynne

The Force is Strong With This One
Thanks for posting this information, mrtn.

KP7 scale is equivalent to a level G3 geomagnetic storm which can produce power outages, GPS problems, transformer failures/fires. Thinking with all the turmoil, folks who aren't familiar with Space Weather may spread rumors.

I'm linking a YouTube report from Ben Davidson.

Also a link from NOAA showing the various effects on systems of geomagnetic storm levels and how they relate to the KP index measurements. I find the PDF scale particularly helpful for understanding and highly recommend taking a look it if anyone hasn't seen it before:

Here's the vid:
Oops posted the wrong scale! Sorry guys. Here's the one I intended:
Thanks for posting this information, mrtn.

KP7 scale is equivalent to a level G3 geomagnetic storm which can produce power outages, GPS problems, transformer failures/fires. Thinking with all the turmoil, folks who aren't familiar with Space Weather may spread rumors.

I'm linking a YouTube report from Ben Davidson.

Also a link from NOAA showing the various effects on systems of geomagnetic storm levels and how they relate to the KP index measurements. I find the PDF scale particularly helpful for understanding and highly recommend taking a look it if anyone hasn't seen it before:

Here's the vid:
When I click the link it shows a different Scale. Please click on the one that says "Geomagnetic Storms." That's the one I find most helpful. Sorry for the confusion!
 

Gary

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
There was a storm yesterday, kp index went up to 7.

Is the Earth's magnetic field far weaker than we realised?

This is discussed in the recent article from electroverse.com:

On May 12, a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) released from the Sun hit Earth. The event was supposed to pass by uneventfully — it would perhaps spark a few auroras, but nothing more. So how did a strong G3 geomagnetic storm ensue?

Nobody was expecting a level 3 event from this CME.

Nobody saw the KP Index hitting 7.

And when I say nobody, I mean nobody predicted this: not NASA, NOAA, ESA or IPS in Australia.

...

The full article can be found here on sott.net:

Earth's magnetic field just struggled with a weak CME: Sign of the times

 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SLEEPING SUNSPOT WAKES UP: Formerly quiet sunspot AR2824 is suddenly crackling with solar flares. It's almost hyperactive. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded seven C-class flares and two M-class flares during a 12-hour period on May 22nd:

These rapidfire explosions have hurled multiple overlapping CMEs into space. NOAA analysts are still untangling the clouds to determine if any might hit Earth. So far, none appears to be squarely Earth-directed, but glancing blows are possible in the days ahead. Stay tuned for updates.

The flares are strobing Earth with pulses of ultraviolet radiation. Waves of ionization rippling through Earth's upper atmosphere are causing intermittant shortwave radio blackouts. The deepest so far occured over North America on May 22nd (~1715 UT) during an M1.1-class flare: map. Ham radio operators, aviators and mariners might have noticed unusual propagation at frequencies below ~20 MHz. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.
Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.5% High
48-hr change: +1.0%
uparrow_orange.png

Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 22 May 2021 @ 1700




Opinion:

May 22, 2021

Second M-Class Solar Flare Inbound Today May 22nd 2021!
 
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dennis

Jedi Master
heterodyne is a signal frequency that is created by combining or mixing two other frequencies using a signal processing technique called heterodyning, which was invented by Canadian inventor-engineer Reginald Fessenden.[1][2][3] Heterodyning is used to shift one frequency range into another, new frequency range, and is also involved in the processes of modulation and demodulation.[2][4] The two input frequencies are combined in a nonlinear signal-processing device such as a vacuum tube, transistor, or diode, usually called a mixer.[2]

In the most common application, two signals at frequencies f1 and f2 are mixed, creating two new signals, one at the sum of the two frequencies f1 + f2, and the other at the difference between the two frequencies f1 − f2.[3] The new signal frequencies are called heterodynes. Typically, only one of the heterodynes is required and the other signal is filtered out of the output of the mixer.
 
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