Rising fluxes of cosmic rays inside the solar system

Kay Kim

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
I forget to add this transcript,

A: What do you think about the ”new” explosion 3 to 4 billion light years away? They think, that is.

{Here it seems the Cs are referring to recent news of an explosion that is going on in the center of a small galaxy said to be 3.8 billion light-years away. See:
bizarre-cosmic-explosion-observed
“Astronomers say they have never seen anything this bright, long-lasting and variable before. Usually gamma-ray bursts mark the end of a massive star and emission from these events never lasts more than a few hours. But radiation from the blast continues to brighten and fade from the location a week after the explosion.”
And: “Rather than the short-lived gamma-ray bursts typically associated with the death of a massive star -- most last no more than a few hours -- this explosion continues more than a week later to emanate pulses of high-energy cosmic radiation for an effect that's brighter, longer lasting, and more variable than scientists have ever seen.”}

Q: (L) Are you saying that it’s not as far away as they’re saying it is?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) What is it representing? What is it doing?

A: The wave has begun in earnest!

Q: (L) What do you mean?

A: Energy is pouring into your universe from higher densities.
 

Gary

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
As I understand it this hasn't been recorded before - a Fast Radio Burst originating from inside our Milky Way galaxy.

From the website Earthsky:

A mystery solved? Fast Radio Burst detected within Milky Way
Posted by Andy Briggs in SPACE | May 4, 2020

Fast Radio Bursts are very mysterious bursts of radio waves – perhaps just a thousandth of a second long – coming from all over the sky. This new discovery of one in our own galaxy is a stunner!

Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) are short, intense bursts of radio waves lasting perhaps a thousandth of a second, coming from all over the sky and of unknown origin. In a shock discovery that could help to solve one of astronomy’s greatest mysteries – on April 28, 2020 – astronomers used an Astronomer’s Telegram to announce a Fast Radio Burst originating from inside our Milky Way galaxy. That’s a first. All other FRBs have been extragalactic, that is to say outside our galaxy. Even more importantly, the astronomers think they’ve also identified the source of the burst.

Explanations have ranged from neutron stars to supernovae to the inevitable aliens.

FRBs were first detected in 2007. This new detection of an FRB is, in astronomical terms, very close to home. Astronomers found it using the CHIME (Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment) radio telescope in Canada, an instrument designed specifically to study phenomena such as FRBs in order to answer major questions in astrophysics. This particular telescope has greatly increased the bursts’ detection rate since its first light in September 2017.

At the time of the April 28 signal, the telescope was not pointing straight at the source. But the signal was so strong the telescope captured it, so to speak, out of the corner of its eye. The signal was of sufficient strength to be detected from another galaxy (indicating it is the same phenomenon as those earlier extragalactic bursts detected from our galaxy), and it had the typical duration of a Fast Radio Burst.

The day before, on April 27, 2020, the Swift Burst Alert Telescope had detected a series of gamma-ray bursts originating from the same point in the sky as the FRB. Those gamma rays are associated with a known object, labeled SGR 1935+2154, a so-called Soft Gamma Repeater. This object is a type of stellar remnant known for periodically generating bursts of gamma rays. The distance to this object has been estimated at about 30,000 light-years. For comparison, the Milky Way galaxy is over 150,000 light-years across.

Excitingly, at the same time there was a burst of high-energy X-rays from the same point in the sky. The X-ray burst was observed by ground- and space-based X-ray telescopes. No FRB had ever been associated with gamma- or X-rays before, making this observation, if indeed it was of a FRB, something completely new.

Now you need to know that X-ray and gamma-ray bursts are not unusual in observations of magnetars.

SGR 1935+2154 is believed to be a magnetar, a type of neutron star with a hypermagnetic field strong enough to pull the keys from your pocket from as far away as the moon!

While the reason for this ultra-strong magnetic field – a thousand times stronger than that of a normal neutron star – is unknown, astronomers theorize that FRBs might be produced when the crust of the neutron star suffers a starquake as a result of tension between the neutron star’s intense gravity and its magnetic field. This tension may be suddenly, and incomprehensibly violently, released in the starquake.

This may mean that the neutron star’s crust, thought to be a million times stronger than steel, slips by just a millimeter; however, this tiny shift may be sufficient to generate a brief burst of radio energy so powerful it can be detected from other galaxies, which we detect as an FRB.

Maybe! It seems possible, anyway, and, in astrophysics, what’s possible is the name of the game.

However, this detection does not mean that astronomers are ready to confirm that all FRBs originate from magnetars. The burst received by CHIME was at the low end of the signal strength historically associated with FRBs, which may or may not be of significance. As yet, astronomers have not analyzed the waveform of the signal to see if it matches that from FRBs. However, if this analysis and ongoing observations of magnetar SGR 1935+2154 do demonstrate conclusively that magnetars are the origin of Fast Radio Bursts, one of astronomy’s greatest mysteries will have been solved.

Bottom line: Fast Radio Bursts are mysterious, short, intense bursts of radio waves coming from locations all over the sky. Before April 28, all the FRBs we knew were thought to come from outside our galaxy. The April 28 FRB, which apparently originated within our galaxy, will help astronomers unravel thorny questions in astrophysics.

 

Agron

Jedi Council Member
As I understand it this hasn't been recorded before - a Fast Radio Burst originating from inside our Milky Way galaxy.

From the website Earthsky:



Heres a video on it from Anton.

 

mabar

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Interesting and, another kind of TLE, Ghost.

Science of how red sprites and blue jets form over thunderstorms. Some of the greatest red sprites ever caught on camera with easy to understand explanations including a new discovery are highlighted in this video. Explore the colorful world of Transient Luminous Events including gigantic jets, elves, halos and more as they are initiated by massive horizontally extensive lightning flashes in thunderstorms far below.
 

Agron

Jedi Council Member
New finding regarding Fast Radio Burst signal/energy stream named FRB 121102. This source has a 157 day cycle! If these FRBs are signs of starquakes on a neutron star, which is currently hypothesised, it is somewhat weird if they repeat in an exact cycle right?
For 90 days it is active and for 67 it is not. And it is extremely powerful!
For the last four years, scientists have been monitoring FRB 121102 to find a pattern in the bursts. In a study published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, researchers led by Kaustubh Rajwade, from the U.K.'s University of Manchester, have now found these bursts appear to repeat on a 157-day cycle.
....but whatever their source it must be highly energetic — producing as much energy in a millisecond as the sun does in 80 years.
"It can be difficult to explain a 157 day periodicity just by precession of the magnetic axis of a neutron star but it cannot be ruled out completely. As far as FRB 121102 is concerned, I believe that a neutron star with [a] high magnetic field is a very good candidate for its source."
"We predict that the source is currently 'off' and that it should turn 'on'" again at some point between June 2 and August 28, they wrote. "We are hoping to monitor the source now to see if our predictions hold,"
The Newsweek article which was published on SOTT 2 days ago:

Anton Petrov also did a video about it:
Major Fast Radio Burst Update - 157 Day Pattern Found!
 

Persej

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
A GLOBAL MAGNETIC ANOMALY: Lately, Earth’s magnetic field has been quiet. Very quiet. The sun is in the pits of what may turn out to be the deepest Solar Minimum in a century. Geomagnetic storms just aren’t happening.

"That’s why I was so surprised on June 23rd when my instruments picked up a magnetic anomaly," reports Stuart Green, who operates a research-grade magnetometer in his backyard in Preston UK. "For more than 30 minutes, the local magnetic field oscillated like a sine wave."

20200623_PC5%20_Wave_strip.jpg


Green quickly checked solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR satellite. "There was nothing–no uptick in the solar wind speed or other factors that might explain the disturbance," he says.

He wasn't the only one who noticed. In the Lofoten islands of Norway, Rob Stammes detected a similar anomaly on his magnetometer. "It was remarkable,” says Stammes. "Our magnetic field swung back and forth by about 1/3rd of a degree. I also detected ground currents with the same 10 minute period."

What happened? Space physicists call this phenomenon a "pulsation continuous" or "Pc" for short. Imagine blowing across a piece of paper, making it flutter with your breath. Solar wind can have a similar effect on magnetic fields. Pc waves are essentially flutters propagating down the flanks of Earth's magnetosphere excited by the breath of the sun. During more active phases of the solar cycle, these flutters are easily lost in the noise of rambunctious geomagnetic activity. But during the extreme quiet of Solar Minimum, such waves can make themselves "heard" like a pin dropping in an silent room.

anomaly3_strip.png


Earth's magnetic field was so quiet on June 23rd, the ripple was heard all around the world. INTERMAGNET's global network of magnetic observatories picked up wave activity at the same time from Hawaii to China to the Arctic Circle. There's even a hint of it in Antarctica (note Scott Base in the plot, above).

Pc waves are classified into 5 types depending on their period. The 10-minute wave on June 23rd falls into category Pc5. Slow Pc5 waves have been linked to a loss of particles from the van Allen radiation belts. Energetic electrons surf these waves down into Earth’s atmosphere, where they dissipate harmlessly.

With Solar Minimum in full swing, there’s never been a better time to study these waves. Keep quiet … and stay tuned for more.

 

itellsya

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
Wasn't sure where to put this but this seems to be the best place.

Relatively reputable Tweeters are reporting that there may be 1-2 weak, earth directed CME's arriving July 13th. Considering the weakening magnetic field we'll see what any impact - if any - they may have:

 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

August 9, 2020 — 3.36pm (End report snip)

Moruya was forecast to receive another 140 millimetres of rain on Sunday. The flooding is a rough outcome for a region that was on fire just six months ago.

Meanwhile, Sydney is expected to be windy and wet again on Monday after a soggy weekend.
Steady rain will fall for much of the city on Sunday afternoon and evening.

On Monday the bureau expects up to 15 millimetres and southerly winds up to 45km/h. The forecast top is a chilly 16 degrees.

The rain will clear during the week with Thursday tipped to reach 21 degrees, before another wet weekend with up to 25 millimetres of rain on Saturday.

Meanwhile:
 

mrtn

Dagobah Resident
The C2.0 flare that occurred in Active Region 12770 on August 15 seems to have been accompanied by corona mass ejection (CME).
After that CME that faced away from earth there was another one on August 16.
Then on 16 August, a B1 event (17:26UT) took place in a spotless region in the southeast solar quadrant. The region rotated onto the solar disk as a spotless faculae field, and -remaining spotless- did not receive a NOAA number. Though a B-class event is weaker than a C-class event, the EUV images showed some coronal dimming (alias "transient coronal hole") to the northwest (upper right) of the blast site, as well as a series of post-flare coronal loops which may have contributed to the somewhat atypical x-ray and EUV curves. Also a coronal wave (also known as EIT wave) can be seen emanating from "ground zero" as a somewhat whitish hue, which is better visible in the difference images. Both the coronal dimming, the post-flare coronal loops, and the coronal wave are strong indicators that the event was associated with a CME. And that was indeed the case, as confirmed by coronagraphic imagery from SOHO. This CME was significantly wider than the 15 August CME, and though the bulk of the CME is not directed to Earth, a weak earth-directed component cannot be excluded.
I think this is what we can currently see on
as arriving on 2020-08-19 21:00
Screenshot_2020-08-18_12-49-50.png
I don't know if this will have any effect, but from what I'm used to from these displays it is quite pronounced and touches earth directly, so I'm prepared for some dizziness that I often get from these.
 

mrtn

Dagobah Resident
BTW, I just subscribed to the newsletter of the site above, Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE), because it was recommended in a article on spaceweatherlive article.
Enter the Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The STCE is a collaborative network of the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, the Royal Observatory of Belgium and the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium and they issue a weekly newsletter which often contains interesting space weather news and facts.
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The brightness of the Sun seems much more radiate as of late. Ad the intense UV light with the constant bombardment of Cosmic Rays.
Even the early morning rising of Neptune had a little more sparkle to it. I suppose this is just one part of the current celestial activity's.

Space Weather.com
Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020
RESEARCHERS PREDICT A SURGE OF COSMIC RAYS: Interplanetary space is about to become a more dangerous place. A new study just published in the research journal Space Weather predicts that galactic cosmic rays will surge in the decades ahead--a result of the sputtering solar cycle. This could limit deep space missions for astronauts to as little as 200 days. FULL STORY.

Cosmic Rays and the Weakening Solar Cycle
August 11, 2020 / Dr.Tony Phillips
August 18, 2020: Cosmic rays are bad–and they’re going to get worse. That’s the conclusion of a new study entitled “Galactic Cosmic Radiation in Interplanetary Space Through a Modern Secular Minimum” just published in the journal Space Weather.

“During the next solar cycle, we could see cosmic ray dose rates increase by as much as 75%,” says lead author Fatemeh Rahmanifard of the University of New Hampshire’s Space Science Center. “This will limit the amount of time astronauts can work safely in interplanetary space.”

Cosmic rays are the bane of astronauts. They come from deep space, energetic particles hurled in all directions by supernova explosions and other violent events. No amount of spacecraft shielding can stop the most energetic cosmic rays, leaving astronauts exposed whenever they leave the Earth-Moon system.

Back in the 1990s, astronauts could travel through space for as much as 1000 days before they hit NASA safety limits on radiation exposure. Not anymore. According to the new research, cosmic rays could limit trips to as little as 290 days for 45-year old male astronauts, and 204 days for females. (Men and women have different limits because of unequal dangers to reproductive organs.)

Why are cosmic rays growing stronger? Blame the sun. The sun’s magnetic field wraps the entire solar system in a protective bubble, normally shielding us from cosmic rays. In recent decades, however, that shield has been growing weaker–a result of the sputtering solar cycle.
sunspotcycles.png

The sunspot cycle has been trending weaker since the 1950s. The red curve is a prediction for upcoming Solar Cycle 25. [More]
Solar activity isn’t what it used to be. In the 1950s through 1990s, the sun routinely produced intense Solar Maxima with lots of sunspots and strong solar magnetic fields. Now look at the plot, above. Since the heyday of the late 20th century, the 11-year solar cycle has weakened, and the sun’s magnetic field has weakened with it.

Rahmanifard and colleagues believe we could be entering a Grand Minimum–a long, slow dampening of the 11-year solar cycle, which can suppress sunspot counts for decades. The most famous example of a Grand Minimum is the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century when sunspots practically vanished for 70 years.

“We are not in a Maunder Minimum,” stresses Rahmanifard. “The current situation more closely resembles the Dalton minimum of 1790-1830 or the Gleissberg minimum of 1890-1920.” During those lesser Grand Minima, the solar cycle became weak, but didn’t completely go away.
grandminima.png


In these plots, Rahmanifard et al compare the Dalton and Gleissberg minima (top panels) to recent solar cycles (bottom panels).

For years, researchers have been monitoring cosmic rays using CRaTER, a sensor orbiting the Moon on board NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). Recent data show that cosmic rays are at very high levels–the highest since LRO was launched in 2009. (See Figure 1 in their paper.)

“We took the latest readings from CRaTER and extrapolated them forward into Solar Cycle 25 (the next solar cycle),” says Rahmanifard. “We found that radiation doses will probably exceed already-high values by 34% for a Gleissberg-like minimum to 75% for a Dalton-like minimum.”

Study co-author Nathan Schwadron, also of the University of New Hampshire, wonders if NASA should rethink its safety limits to allow longer voyages. “Or,” he suggests, “maybe we should wait, and only conduct long-duration missions during Solar Maximum when galactic cosmic radiation falls to lower levels.”

For astronauts, it begs the question — How much can you get done in 200 days? Barring improvements in shielding technology, future space missions may be limited to only 6 or 7 months, probably too short for a Mars voyage. Lunar exploration could be safer because the body of the Moon itself blocks radiation. But in interplanetary space, the researchers caution, “the next decade or two may be more dangerous than previously realized.” Stay tuned for updates as Solar Cycle 25 unfolds.


A CME IS COMING--MAYBE: Sometime today, a CME (coronal mass ejection) might hit Earth. The solar storm cloud was hurled into space on Aug. 16th by a slow-motion solar flare in the sun's southern hemisphere. Click to play a NOAA forecast model of the CME sweeping past Earth on Aug. 20th:

enlil_strip.png

The UV Index forecast for Friday , August 14, 2020 at 43350 is: ... Reduce your exposure to the sun's most intense UV radiation by seeking shade ... know that white sand and other bright surfaces reflect UV and can double UV exposure.

As the forecast animation shows, the CME was never heading directly for us. The bulk of the plasma cloud is expected to sail to the south of our planet. However, its outer edge could graze Earth's magnetic field, and that might be enough to spark a minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storm. There's also a chance the CME will miss, and space weather will remain quiet. Either way, high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on August 20th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text


 

Esprit

Jedi Master
FOTCM Member
Mysterious dent in Earth's electromagnetic field — & it's growing

Scientists have discovered a bizarre anomaly above South America, a massive and expanding "dent" in Earth's electromagnetic field that is posing a challenge for satellites.

Call me paranoid, it could be an excellent excuse to shut down communications. But I guess there are some real phenomenons out there...


 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Current Cosmic Ray data Via Spaceweather.com

"Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak."
Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +10.2% Very High
48-hr change: +0.7%
uparrow.png

Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 06 Sep 2020 @ 0600 UT
oulu.png



Q&A Mini-Course: Coronal Holes and Sources of the Solar Wind - Part 2
Streamed live 11 hours ago / 2:56:12 Dr. Tamitha Skov
 
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