Russia Begins Operations in Syria: End Game for the US Empire?

[Keit]

Trump weights in.

 

[Thebull]

This is very sad news. It appears Assad has been left to the Wolves. How does Israel have such power. Mossad seems to be everywhere.
The Syrians had, with Russian support held firm over the years, why now I ask? What the hell is going on behind the scenes. Sky news here just stated is good for middle east stability!!
I'm sure they'll be a lot more to it than what western MSM share. I did think the Syrians army were battle hardened. More turmoil for the Syrian people and probably the head choppers are back at it!

 

[Mr.Cyan]

Just a thought crossed my mind - there is another backroom deal considering Trump's post :

Maybe the deal was for Russia to cease to support Assad - and negotiations to end the war with Ukraine and the removal of sanctions etc can begin when Trump's takes office with positions and options more favorable to Russia. This off course will also benefit Israel with Assad gone.

It would be uncharacteristic of Putin if this was the case, but im still trying to figure out why Assad left the country despite having strong support from Russia and Iran previously. Maybe we have to consider great power politics, and Russia wanting to avoid a two-front war in Syria and in Ukraine.

 

[Ben]

Trump weights in.

View attachment 104109

Mostly nonsense, but there is a grain of truth. Obviously Russia does not see any point in expending further resources to hold territory in most of Syria. Their efforts were not reciprocated by the Syrians themselves, when put to the test.

Israel licking their lips now, looking at the Golan heights and all sorts of opportunities for chaos.

 

[Bobo08]

The speed of the collapse of Syria is indeed inexplicable to me. From what I read on Twitter, it seems that there was no will to fight on the part of the Syrian army and Syrian people. And when the Syrian people themselves would not put up a fight, there was nothing the allies, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, could do to help. And true enough, the Russian military in Syria did not do much, apart from a few bombing runs at the beginning.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865630687757230397

The next few days may shed more information on what has happened.

 

[mabar]

Mostly nonsense, but there is a grain of truth. Obviously Russia does not see any point in expending further resources to hold territory in most of Syria. Their efforts were not reciprocated by the Syrians themselves, when put to the test.

Not in Syria but might lose the access to Europe through Mediterranean Sea.

The speed of the collapse of Syria is indeed inexplicable to me. From what I read on Twitter, it seems that there was no will to fight on the part of the Syrian army and Syrian people. And when the Syrian people themselves would not put up a fight, there was nothing the allies, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, could do to help. And true enough, the Russian military in Syria did not do much, apart from a few bombing runs at the beginning.

Syrian army had been decimate by 11 years of ongoing war, the explanation of preserving lives (man power) by Syrian Girl seems accurate to me.

It's very unfortunate, I feel sad, I wish something, could stop short Israel and it's minions but... It seems we have to cope with it for some reason and I don't even live there, I can only imagine the sadness, frustration, anger, fear of the syrians.

 

[Jones]

Not in Syria but might lose the access to Europe through Mediterranean Sea.

Syrian army had been decimate by 11 years of ongoing war, the explanation of preserving lives (man power) by Syrian Girl seems accurate to me.

It's very unfortunate, I feel sad, I wish something, could stop short Israel and it's minions but... It seems we have to cope with it for some reason and I don't even live there, I can only imagine the sadness, frustration, anger, fear of the syrians.

Yeah, Syrian Girl is seeing it as a strategic withdrawal:

ANALYSIS

What happened in #Syria in the last few days has left many in shock, how could the Syrian army cede so much territory within a matter of days? As the fog of war settles the picture becomes clearer.

The first step in understanding this is to note that the Syrian army were ordered to retreat from Aleppo/Hama. The soldiers didn't run and there was no mutiny. The AlQaeda hordes didn't defeat the Army, because they didn't fight them in the first place. They simply ceded the ground. To understand why such a gut wrenching decision had to be made we must have to look at the wider chessboard.

BLITZKRIEG
A surprise attack that uses a concentrated force to quickly overwhelm the enemy. This is what the Syrian army was facing. Once the AlQaeda hordes breached the M4 highway, attempting to hold the city in the chaos way would have caused mass casualties among both civilians and soldiers. To defeat a Blitzkrieg you must:

A) Fall back, to over stretch the enemy until they reach a point where they don't have enough resources to keep pushing. That point is being reached in Homs.

B) Air superiority. It's much easier to bomb convoys of AlQaeda terrorists on highways from the air than fight them inside cities. This way their man power is depleted.

C) Flanking, counter attack from the flank of a spear head. If the over exuberant enemy has gone to far ahead they can be separated into more easily manageable pockets. Part of this strategy could be seen when Russia blew Rastan the bridge that leads from Hama to Homs.

MANPOWER

Have you observed that there wasn't many Syrian army casualties during the retreat? That is rather the point, preserving man power.#Syria is a country of less than 20 million people. There's not that large of a pool of recruits to draw from, and after fighting 13 years of war the numbers depleted. Hezbollah's war with "Israel" and Russia's war with Ukraine, added to the man power shortage. As such the soldiers lives have to be preserved. If large number had been lost in an attempted to hold Aleppo from an unlimited number of Turkic and central Asian hordes then Damascus would subsequently soon later fall and all would be lost. In cold weather, the body pools blood away from the exterminates to keep up ones core temperature, Syria must consolidate it's man power to maintain the core. What's more is, the Syrian army is fighting a war on multiple fronts, the Turkic hordes from the north, the Americans to the east, the Americans and Takfiris to the south, and finally Israel. Which, brings us to the next point.

ISRAELI INVASION LOOMS

This is perhaps the most important reason for the withdrawal from Hama and Aleppo. An Israeli invasion is very likely if not imminent. The intention is to create a land grab and label it a "buffer zone". The Zionist scourge would like nothing more than the Syrian army to deplete it's resources fighting the AlQaeda hordes, then come in to steal the land unopposed. The Syrian army deployed extra man power near the Golan front after Oct 7th. They can't afford to spend man power on the north. Israel is the biggest threat to Syria, the AlQaeda hordes are merely a distraction. It is this threat for which the Syrian army must maintain it's resources. Israel, the eternal enemy. This is Syria's existential war. Just as it is for Palestine and Lebanon.

So maybe all is not lost yet.

 

[mkrnhr]

I think that at this point it's wishful thinking. Once an army is demoralized, once it disarms, it's over. An army that evacuates cities to save lives (which lives? those of the civilians left in those cities?) has failed and even a loyal citizenship would see it as a betrayal (and if they're not killed, per Stockholm syndrome become allies to the invaders). A prime minister handing over power to an ISIS leader is not a strategic retreat, it's a capitulation. It is also quite likely that Bashar, his wife, and kids have already been killed.
My impression is that this war, if one sets aside Ukrainian drones, is more psychological than military. In addition to high mobility, intense propaganda, the element of surprise, saturation of the news through social media, etc., it wouldn't be surprising if some sort of beaming technology hasn't been used as well.

 

[SOTTREADER]

It will be very tragic if the Russians did not evacuate Assad and his family. I'm not sure what to say.

Btw, Vanessa Beeley is in Damascus. She better get out if she hasn't already.

I'm listening to a podcast she was doing yesterday with UK Column and she seems to be in denial saying the stuff on social media is misinformation. Is it misinformation that Damascus has fallen today?

 

[SOTTREADER]

I can see from social media that the international airport in Damascus was captured last night. I think Vanessa Beeley may be trapped in Damascus.

I can also see some posts claiming that Asad was meant to have gone to a Russian military base around midnight last night but no news since. The russian bases also appear to be deserted as they are being looted. Iranian embassy too.

It appears like pure anarchy. Russia seems like it has failed in this situation from the face of things. Basically it all makes it appear that Russia doesn't have the resources people think - it certainly has the bombs, but maybe not the manpower to operate both in Ukraine and Syria. I note Trump said Russia lost 600k soldiers in his latest post last night .

 

[mkrnhr]

Apparently Beeley made it out safe

 

[f1esk]

Iranian official media has released explanations on why Iran did not go all the way in for Assad.

Iran's Fars news agency published an article that explains why Iran did not commit troops to Syria.

With the emergence of ISIS in Syria and deteriorating security conditions, the government of that country has officially sought Iran's help.

Over time, the terrorists experienced a “genetic mutation”, stopped committing violence and adopted a diplomatic stance. The Syrian people no longer support the Syrian army to fight the terrorists like they used to.

The Syrian army also had no motivation to fight the terrorists for various reasons including religious and economic weakness.

But the main change took place in Bashar al-Assad himself. During his last meeting with him on June 10, 2024, Rahbar Ali Khamenei gave the Syrian president an important and justified warning.

In addition, before the Lebanon war, Iran repeatedly warned Assad about the strengthening of terrorists and even made him necessary proposals, but they were not heeded.

This process continued until the last hours of Assad's fall. The presence of the highest level Iranian officials to negotiate with him showed Iran's serious determination to strengthen Damascus. But Assad made the strategic - and fatal for himself - mistake of relying on promises from other Arab countries and the West.

Upon learning of this, Iran decided not to intervene, but tried to persuade Assad to the last. However, he realized too late the emptiness of his enemies' promises.

link

 

[Keit]

The russian bases also appear to be deserted as they are being looted.

Do you have a source of this information? According to the official Foreign Ministry statement, the Russian bases are safe and are on high alert.

Russian military bases on Syrian territory are on high alert. There is currently no serious threat to their security.

I note Trump said Russia lost 600k soldiers in his latest post last night .

The only reason I didn't say anything about his remark when shared it, because he said "close to 600000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead". It sounds a more appropriate number for Ukraine, and even this number is too small. He said that 400000 casualties for Ukraine. He should at least double it.

 

[SOTTREADER]

Do you have a source of this information? According to the official Foreign Ministry statement, the Russian bases are safe and are on high alert.

I have re-looked at the footage and they appear to be of the surrounding area as opposed to the actual bases. There is a clip from Tartus and one from Latakia both of which I understand are locations for Russian military bases.

The clips are being posted on telegram, specifically I've seen them on Slavangrad and intel slava z.

The only reason I didn't say anything about his remark when shared it, because he said "close to 600000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead". It sounds a more appropriate number for Ukraine, and even this number is too small. He said that 400000 casualties for Ukraine. He should at least double it.

I don't know what the truth is. All I know is how things appear. This latest episode has brought doubt to the information of control that Russia was projecting. I'm not saying Russia has lost control, just the perception of doubt has now been introduced. You have to wonder how secure the military bases in Syria will be if all the surrounding area is held by hostile terrorists? That's a bit of a security nightmare!

Also recommend this analysis:

 

[Keit]

I don't know what the truth is. All I know is how things appear. This latest episode has brought doubt to the information of control that Russia was projecting. I'm not saying Russia has lost control, just the perception of doubt has now been introduced.

Ok, that's understandable. Something like this probably happens or can happen to many pro-Russian Westerners, aspecially after such events. Many such Westerners hold an unrealistically positive view about Russia or whatever Russia does, so such events can definitely throw people off balance. If so, an introduction of doubt is a good thing.

As it happens, there are no harsher critics of what Russia is doing than Russians themselves. In many cases they even overdo it. There is even a name for them: "vsepropalshiki". It's from the phrase "vse propalo" (all is lost). They are usually pro-Russian and consider themselves patriots. But they have a knee-jerk reaction to any Russian loss, real or perceived, doesn't matter on what scale or area. Now they have been activated again big time.

I am sharing all of this just to provide perspective, that if Russian bases were indeed lost and looted, we would hear about it on the Russian TG even before the bases would be actually lost. Or if Russian causulties were that high. But it doesn't mean that they would share a reliable information either. The problem with looking for any tiny failure means that often they buy into the Western propaganda and share it as proof of Russia's failure, just to maintain their "all is lost" view. Luckily there are many others who have a more measured approach.

Also recommend this analysis:

This is indeed a very good analysis. Very balanced and realistic.