voyageur said:
sitting said:
sitting said:
This exchange rate consideration may outrank other issues as a causal factor for direct force confrontation. A great power will NOT permit a thrashing of its currency.
Crude went under $30 this morning. And the ruble nearing 80 (presently at 78.)
My guess (only a guess) is Putin, and Russia, will not just sit idly watching. Saudis beware.
Fwiw too, back in December 2015, the business insider published this hit on Iran's oil production: "
Iran is about to start selling oil that may cost just $1 a barrel". This of course comes with the refining/distribution costs added; yet the headline!
http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-oil-costs-1-per-barrel-2015-12
With oil, Col. Fletcher Prouty had some things to say and how the players induced its veneer of scarcity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdSjyvIHVLw In this respect, the above article openly mentions:
The world is awash with oil. Everyone expects it to stay that way for decades.
Those are not particular words the producers want talked about. With Iraq and Libya, the talk, with observations, was on the Western nations stealing oil for their own control, which seems so. And yet others have speculated that the control is not to put it on the market, its to keep it in the ground, which is what Prouty seems to be talking about - creating scarcity.
If you were ExxonMobil, Shell, BP etc. with your fingers in every Western geopolitical puzzle, what would they be hopeful for?
I don't know exactly, yet is it possible that the game (notwithstanding Turkey's theft of Syrian oil for their own pockets) was to first try to break Russia on dropping oil prices instigated by the House of Saud, and when that failed, further contain Syria (like Iraq and Libya) with proxy armies and try to nullify Iran and any others that could feed new oil into the system as they emerge post sanctions?
What do we see? We see a provocation with the U.S. Navy in Iran's waters - testing the waters?
With Turkey's Erdogan theft of Syrian and Iraq crude oil coming to light and the evidence that Russia/Putin has since exposed, I noticed a curious correspondence in an approximate timeline - of when Turkey/U.S. Military forces first entered Syria and the sudden "forced" manifestation of the Fracking Oil and Gas Industry in the U.S. Many of us here in Northeastern Pennsylvania have been personally affected with it's "Gasland" environmental destroying affects. So, it goes without saying, the U.S. elites and their cohorts have had a heavy hand in what is transpiring on the World Market. Around this same timeline, Israel Military pushed it's way into the Golan Heights.
Russia has a good grasp on the geopolitical climate and is taking steps to protect itself. In the meantime, Shell and Total Oil Giants' Executives are rushing to Iran - to be first in line, as the U.S. lifts Sanctions. Obama is trying to get Congress to lift a 56-year-old embargo on Cuba - probably to tap into it's Oil Wells?
Russians Hurt By Falling Oil Prices, Sanctions
http://learningenglish.voanews.com/content/russia-faces-pain-over-falling-oil-prices-sanction/3144704.html
Russia’s economy is struggling at the beginning of 2016. Low oil prices and Western sanctions against Russia continue to affect the country’s economy.
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev thinks the economy is looking better than one year ago. But he told a conference this week that Russia must prepare for the worst-case scenario. In such a case, conditions would worsen, not improve.
Medvedev spoke in Moscow at the yearly Gaidar Forum on economics. He noted that 2015 was probably the most difficult year for Russia economically in the past 10 years. The level of economic activity shrank 3.8 percent last year.
Two main reasons for this were the sharp drop in the price of oil and Western economic sanctions. Oil is Russia’s main export. Its price has dropped about 70 percent to $30 a barrel over the past 12 months.
“Russia is in (the) top 10 countries with the lowest public debt and greatest foreign exchange reserves. And, that really provides for the resilience of our financial system,” he said.
The prime minister admitted the federal government would likely face budget cuts. About half of Russia’s budget depends on oil export revenues.
PM Medvedev: Cabinet of Ministers to cut costs and scrap projects
http://tass.ru/en/economy/849922
GORKI, January 15. /TASS/. The government has to substantially reduce costs, scrap a series of projects and perform staff downsizing, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday at the meeting on the 2016 federal budget. "We will look at expenses that should be slashed and decide what projects we will have to abandon or postpone. I tasked all ministries and departments to make such proposals — on reduction of costs and downsizing," the prime minister said. The Prime Minister urges to mobilize budget revenues, particularly in terms of privatization and receivables reduction, and to adjust expenditures to meet expected revenues "to ensure delivery of social commitments and finance protected items even in such a challenging budget situation."
Russia refuses to rein in oil production in 2016
http://www.dw.com/en/russia-refuses-to-rein-in-oil-production-in-2016/a-18982706
Russia is keeping oil production at record levels in 2016 - following similar strategies by other oil producers like Saudi Arabia based on preserving market share against more cost-intensive products like US shale.
"From our point of view, it is unlikely that all the countries within OPEC can agree on production cuts, let alone those countries which are not in the OPEC coalition," the RIA news agency quoted Novak as saying in an interview with RBC TV.
"Such consultations have been underway for the past year and a half since oil prices started to fall in mid-2014," he said. "But we see that in 2015 countries like Saudi Arabia in OPEC have increased total production by 1.5 million barrels per day.
"Oil prices have fallen by more than 70 percent since June 2014. Although the price edged upwards several times in 2015, it's already fallen to below $30 per barrel this year - a far cry from the $90 price tag an oil barrel normally carried over the last decade, and uncomfortably close to the $5-10 cost of production per barrel.
But analysts predict that the oil market will come back into balance by the third quarter of this year, and that the price per barrel will go up to around $50 by the end of 2016.
Oil Prices Decline Friday as Iran Prepares to Enter Energy Market
http://sputniknews.com/business/20160115/1033183028/oil-prices-iran.html
World oil prices continued to decline Friday as Brent crude fell by over 3 percent against yesterday's close (1-15-2016), while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by over 5 percent, according to trading data.
Generic Brent futures fell to $29.47 per barrel by 10:20 GMT after the trading day's previous low of $29.84 per barrel on 8:55 GMT, while WTI crude declined to $29.49 per barrel by 10:20 GMT after the 09:00 GMT low of $29.66 per barrel. The oil blends fell to Thursday's closing value by over 4.5 and five percent respectively.
Oil prices have been at 11-year and 12-year lows, depending on crude blend classification, since Monday. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its 2016 oil price forecast down by over one fourth in its short-term energy outlook published Tuesday.
Brent crude prices plunged from $115 per barrel to $48.5 per barrel between June 2014 and January 2015, hitting the lowest levels since 2004 by January 2016. The recent decline comes as markets brace for Iranian supplies to kick off, reportedly as early as next week.
The price free fall has been attributed to global overcapacity, OPEC's decision to maintain output as well as economic turmoil plaguing the world's leading energy consumers, notably China.
Plummeting oil prices may challenge the established geopolitical status-quo and even result in war and turmoil, experts warn.
End of Petroleum-Centric World? Falling Oil Prices to Shake Up World Order
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160114/1033136934/falling-oil-prices-shake-up-world-order.html
The current slump in oil prices has affected giant oil corporations and the ancillary businesses; it also threatens to undermine economies of major energy-producing countries resulting in a "profound shake up" in the political order, according to Michael T. Klare, a Professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College (Massachusetts, United States).
The American academic feels that the continuing depression in oil prices may stretch into the 2020s and beyond.
Klare refers to the temporary economic slowdown in China, the surge of oil output in North America (up to 9.2 million barrels per day), and most notably to Saudi Arabia's "steadfast resistance" to decrease its own production or that of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
What lies beneath the Saudis' refusal to curtail their oil output? Riyadh is possibly determined to punish Russia and Iran for its support of Syria, the US academic notes. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is apparently making attempts to drive US shale producers out of the oil market.
To add more fuel to the fire, Iraq and Iran continue to increase their output as well. As Daesh (Islamic State/ISIL) is losing ground in Syria and Iraq, Baghdad's oil production is expected to continue its growth, Klare remarks.
As for Iran, its nuclear deal with Washington has opened doors for Tehran's re-entering the oil market. According to US Energy Information Administration forecast released in August 2015, "Iran has the technical capability to increase crude oil production by about 600,000 b/d by the end of 2016."
"Only three developments could conceivably alter the present low-price environment for oil: a Middle Eastern war that took out one or more of the major energy suppliers; a Saudi decision to constrain production in order to boost prices; or an unexpected global surge in demand," Klare believes.
Shell, Total Oil Giants' Executives Rush to Iran Ahead of Sanctions Relief
http://sputniknews.com/business/20160116/1033243347/shell-total-iran.html
Representatives of the Anglo-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell company and the French Total corporation are expected to discuss the boosting of bilateral ties with Iran's National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) on Sunday, Iran's Mehr news agency reported.
"Relevant negotiations with all world’s major oil companies have begun," NITC Managing Director Ali Akbar Safaei said as quoted by the news outlet. Iranian oil tankers are now set to return to the European energy market, he added.
The visit comes ahead of the expected lifting of anti-Iran international sanctions, which have prohibited the country from selling its energy products on international markets.
Obama calls on US Congress to lift Cuba embargo
http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/topstory-Obama-calls-on-US-Congress-to-lift-Cuba-embargo-28944.html
WASHINGTON, USA (ACN) -- US President Barack Obama called on the US Congress on Tuesday to lift the over-50-year economic, commercial and financial embargo of Cuba.
The president said that 50 years of isolating Cuba had failed to promote US interests and that led to a setback for the US in Latin America and "that's why we restored diplomatic relations, opened the door to travel and commerce..."
Obama for the first time asked the US Congress to lift the trade embargo on Cuba in his previous State of the Union Address shortly after the historic December 17 announcement that diplomatic relations would be restored.
Oil reserves in Cuba - Cuba has three producing offshore oil fields within 5 km of its north coast
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Cuba
US Calls UN Vote to End Embargo Against Cuba 'Unfortunate'
http://www.voanews.com/content/un-members-urge-us-to-lift-cuba-embargo/3025032.html
UNITED NATIONS—
A vote by the U.N. urging the United States to lift its economic embargo against Cuba will "not help move things forward," U.S. Ambassador Ron Godard said.
The international community voted nearly unanimously Tuesday for an end to the 50-year-old economic, commercial and financial embargo against Cuba.
One hundred ninety-one members of the U.N. General Assembly called for Washington to end the measures put in place during the height of the Cold War.
Only the U.S. and Israel voted against it.
Last December, President Barack Obama ordered full restoration of diplomatic relations with the island nation. He also eased some travel restrictions,
but only Congress can lift the 56-year-old embargo.