Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Geomagnetic Storm update

Around 22:00 UTC the geomagnetic storm subsided, but the magnetic field remained disturbed (Kp=4) with a solar wind speed of 576.3 km/sec. At 23:30 a new period of minor geomagnetic storm G1 (Kp=5) started, with a solar wind speed of 545 km/sec. At the moment of this update the solar wind speed is 570.4 km/sec
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Conditions might increase to active levels G3 (strong) with the arrival of more CMEs
SpaceWeatherlive.com
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 19

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.6 event from AR3078 observed at 04:44 UTC on August 19 that generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Southeast Asia

AR3078 is the most active region, its magnetic field has evolved from beta to Beta-Gamma-Delta (beta-gamma magnetic configuration but contains one or more delta sunspots). This region started with a single sunspot of 50 millionths of hemisphere on August 10 and has grown to 16 sunspots, its maximum size was 270MH on August 16 but its size is 200MH at present.

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3078, AR3081, AR3082, AR3083 and new region AR3084

AR3084 is a group of 3 sunspots located onthe southeast (S11E01) with a beta magnetic field, size 20MH and poses no threat of major M or X class flares

The total number of sunspots remain to 83. The forecast is for a 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s 12:54 UTC on August 18.

Around 04:00 UTC on Aug 19 the geomagnetic storm G1 subsided, the magnetic field returned to quiet levels (Kp=3)

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--DON'T GIVE UP: The past two days have had multiple geomagnetic storms--the result of a CME strike on Aug. 17th. None was as strong as the G3-class event originally forecast, but don't give up! G1 and G2-class storms are still possible Aug. 19th, 20th, and 21st in response to additional CMEs on the way. High-latitude auroras remain likely as we enter the weekend. SpaceWeather.com

BLUE SKY AURORAS: Darkness has not yet returned to Arctic Norway. No problem. The auroras on Aug. 19th were bright enough to see in blue twilight:
norway_strip.jpg
"The sky is very bright, but with aurora alarms beeping all day I just had to go out and try," says photographer Marianne Bergli, an aurora tour guide in Tromso. "Just after midnight I was lucky and captured our first auroras of the season." SpaceWeather.com

Last night’s auroral displays were reported from places as south as Southern Ontario, Canada

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC August 19

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 541.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 8.63 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.7% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 83 (SN 83 Aug 18)
▪︎Earth is inside a stream of solar wind speed from a equatorial coronal hole

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Geomagnetic Storm in progress

Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were recorded at 17:56 UTC on Aug 19 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632.3 km/s at 18:06 UTC and it remained variable reaching another peak of 671.3 km/sec at 19:14.

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) threshold Reached: 19:44 UTC
SpaceWeatherlive.com

These geomagnetic storm conditions in the last three days possibly have some effect on the weather around the world (see last post in the.Crazy storm weather around the world thread)
 

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 20

Sun activity dropped to low levels in the past 24 hours. The largest event of the period was a C6.77 flare from AR3078 observed at 20:30 UTC

There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3078, AR3081, AR3082, AR3084 AR3083 Is gone.

During the week AR3078 (S17W73) produced 10 M-class flares, 62 C-class, 11 B-class and multiple CMEs that reached the Earth and helped to provide conditions for geomagnetic storms and auroral displays. Now the sun’s rotation has carried AR3078 westward, so it can no longer produce Earth-directed CMEs. This sunspot decreased in size considerably once it moved further west, it is now 50MH in size, the loss of delta sunspots changed its magnetic configuration to beta-gamma.

The total number of sunspots has dropped to 74. For the weekend the forecast is for a 55% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 20:55 UTC on August 19. Around 22:45 UTC the geomagnetic storm G1 subsided, however the magnetic field remained to unsettled levels (Kp=4) Solar wind speed dropped to 299.6 km/sec at 23:02 UTC, then regain force to a peak of 662.6 km/sec at 23:07

A CME JUST HIT EARTH, MORE ON THE WAY: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 19th at 1734 UT, sparking a G1-class (minor) geomagnetic storm. Two more CMEs are on the way: #1, #2. Both are on the edge of the Earth strike zone; they could deliver weak glancing blows on Aug. 20th and 21st. Even a weak CME strike can cause a G1-class storm, so stay tuned. SpaceWeather.com

Current Conditions at 13:45 UTC August 20

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 499.3km/sec
▪︎density: 7.73 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.8% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 74 (SN 83 Aug 19)
▪︎Earth is inside a stream of solar wind speed from a equatorial coronal hole

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 21

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 0459 UTC on Aug.21 from Region 3081 (N16W59).

There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3078, AR3081, AR3082, AR3084

The star of the last week AR3078 is far to the west on the visible face of the sun. Although it has increased its size to 60MH the loss of gamma sunspots changed its magnetic configuration to beta.

Regions due to return: AR3068, AR3072, AR3073

The total number of sunspots has dropped to 56. The forecast is for a 55% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours due to high-speed solar wind from a coronal hole combined with CME effects. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were reached at 23:05 UTC on Aug 20
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545.8 km/sec at 01:09 UTC

GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 20th at 1812 UT. The weak impact caused an episode of geomagnetic unrest (Kp=4) but not a full-fledged geomagnetic storm. Another similar CME is expected to arrive on Aug. 21st, and it could push Earth's magnetosphere over the threshold of minor G1-class storming. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. SpaceWeather.com

More Auroras


HELIANTHUS BOREALIS: Earth's magnetosphere is buzzing with activity. At least three CMEs have hit since Aug. 17th, none with great force, but together sufficient to spark multiple geomagnetic storms and substorms. On Aug. 20th, auroras spilled over the Canadian border into North Dakota:
dakotasunflowers_strip.jpg
Photographer Elon Gane watched the lights spread over a field of Helianthus annuus--the common sunflower. SpaceWeather.com

Current Conditions at 14:30 UTC August 21

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 580.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.28 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.9% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 56 (SN 74 Aug 20)

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 22

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2.44 event observed at 23:30 UTC on Aug 21 from Region 3085 (N29E09).


There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3081, AR3082, AR3084 and new region AR3085

AR3085 located on the northeast, started as a group of 6 sunspots on August 21 and as of today has grown to 9 sunspots, likewise its size increased from 50MH to 150MH This region has a beta magnetic configuration and so far has produced 2 B-class and 2 C-class eruptions. It does not represent for the moment a danger of major M or X class eruptions.

The total number of sunspots remain at 56. The forecast is for a 25% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 03:55 UTC on August 21 and active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were reached at 16:36 UTC
THE STORMS ARE OVER: NOAA forecasters say that G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Aug. 22nd. More likely, the storms are over. A final minor CME launched toward Earth by old sunspot AR3078 might indeed graze our planet's magnetic field today. However, it is already late, and thus slow; the impact is unlikely to produce a geomagnetic storm. SpaceWeather.com

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC August 22

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 557.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.91 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.3% Below Average
▪︎Sunspot number: 56 (SN 56 Aug 21)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 23

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours but prominences were observed all around the solar limb.
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Image via NASA SDO.


A prominence on the southeast limb, over the new active region now rotating into view, erupted in a swirl this morning,

The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 14:09 UTC on August 22 from Region 3085 (N30E01) So far, most of the flares are B-class

There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3081, AR3085 and new region AR3086,
AR3082 and AR3084 have rotated to the other side

AR3086 is a group of 4 sunspots with beta magnetic configuration located on the southeast (S22E51) with size 50MH. It does not represent for the moment a danger of major M or X class eruptions, so far it has generated C-class and B-class flares.

AR3085 (N23W07) continues growing, currently its size is 200MH and generating C-class solar flares.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 44. The forecast for the next 24h is for a 40% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Expected to be quiet to unsettled as the effects of high-speed solar wind from a coronal hole and combined with CMEs wane.

Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 00:03 UTC on Aug 22

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC August 23

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 449.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 3.48 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.0% Below Average
▪︎Sunspot number: 44 (SN 56 Aug 22)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Aug. 29th.
SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

'Solar clock' could predict rhythms of dangerous weather in the sun's cycle​


New research suggests that a 'solar clock' based on the sun's magnetic field could be a more precise way of predicting dangerous solar flares that threaten communications systems on Earth, years in advance.

Suggested by Partnership for Heliophysics and Space Environment Research (PHaSER) scientist, Robert Leamon, the new framework is based on research that indicates notable and sometimes abrupt changes in the solar cycle occur with a rhythm at each one-fifth of a cycle.

If correct, the solar clock concept could supersede the current method used to measure the solar cycle: Observations of sunspots  —  dark patches that appear across the sun's surface the photosphere  —  which has been in place for four centuries.

The sun has an approximate solar cycle of 11 years, with the reduced solar activity  (the solar minimum ) used to determine the start of each cycle. Leamon thinks that this method of tracking the sun's cycles is both arbitrary and imprecise.

His new framework builds upon a study published two years ago that pointed to the existence of a phenomenon in the solar cycle the authors called 'the terminator.'

In each new solar cycle, the sun's magnetic field changes orientation from one pole to the other, but there is an overlap between cycles in which change isn't complete. The terminator describes the point in a cycle at which the orientation of the previous cycle has completely vanished from the surface of the sun.

This point is accompanied by a sudden and rapid rise in solar activity, and Leamon suggests that landmarks in the solar cycle from terminator to terminator are clearer and more consistent than sunspot activity. This potentially makes the use of terminators a better way of measuring the sun's cycle.

Leamon and his colleagues found that changes occurred at exactly one-fifth of a cycle. At two-fifths of a cycle dark regions known as polar corona holes formed at the sun's poles. At the three-fifths mark, the sun blasted out that cycle's last X-class flare . At four-fifths of a cycle, sunspots at the sun's photosphere reach a minimum. Then the final event of the cycle the sun passes through another terminator.

"The max number of sunspots doesn't quite align with when the polar field reverses, but the polar field reversal happens at exactly one-fifth of the cycle going from terminator to terminator," Leamon said.

The framework suggested by Leamon and his colleagues suggests the sun's current cycle began in December 2021 after the last terminator and ends in mid-2027.

 

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 24

Sun back to minimal flaring, has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1.34 event observed at 01:56 UTC on August 24 from AR3086

There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun, AR3085, AR3086 and new region AR3087
AR3081 Is gone.

AR3087 is a sunspot located on the southeast limb (S17E53) with size 40MH and a alfa magnetic configuration. It does not represent a danger of major M or X class eruptions.

AR3086 has grown to 100MH and it is the most active region on the sun’s visible face now so far, although it only has generated minor solar flares

Is AR3086 a Anemone type region?
Many of the active regions (ARs) appearing in coronal holes show a structure that looks like a sea anemone. Such active regions are called anemone ARs. About one-fourth of all active regions that were observed with SXT from their births showed the anemone structure.
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The total number of sunspots has increased to 52. The forecast is for a 60% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares in the next 24 hours

Giant ropes of solar material and magnetic fields, arcing up continue to steal the show so far. In particular, the southeast limb.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 22:20 UTC on August 23

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC August 24

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 401.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 3.95 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.6% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 52 (SN 44 Aug 23)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Aug. 29th.
SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

Towards the Great Modern Solar Minimum and terrestrial cooling

According to Valentina Zharkova, Professor of Physics and Mathematics at Northumbria University, the Earth is heading towards a global cooling similar to the Maunder Minimum, known from Breughel's winter landscapes.

Signs of solar activity are seen in the 11-year cyclic variations of a series of sunspots on the solar surface using the monthly average of sunspots as an indicator of solar activity over the last 150 years. The solar cycles were described by the action of the solar dynamo mechanism in the solar interior generating magnetic strings at the bottom of the solar convection zone.

These magnetic strings travel through the solar interior and appear on the solar surface, or photosphere, as sunspots indicating the points where these magnetic strings are embedded in the photosphere.

The magnetic field of the sunspots forms a toroidal field, while the solar background magnetic field forms a poloidal field. The solar dynamo cyclically converts the poloidal field into a toroidal field reaching its maximum at a solar cycle maximum and then the toroidal field returns to the poloidal field toward a solar minimum.

During these large solar minimums, there is a significant reduction of the solar magnetic field and solar irradiance, which imposes the reduction of terrestrial temperatures derived for these periods from the analysis of terrestrial biomass during the last 12,000 years or more.

The most recent grand solar minimum occurred during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1710), which led to a reduction in solar radiation by 0.22% relative to modern times and a decrease in average Earth temperature by 1.0 to 1.5°C.

This discovery of the double dynamo action on the Sun brought us a timely warning about the next great solar minimum, when the solar magnetic field and its magnetic activity will be reduced by 70%. This period began on the Sun in 2020 and will last until 2053. During this modern grand minimum, we would expect to see a reduction in the average Earth temperature of up to 1.0 °C, especially during the periods of solar minimums between cycles 25-26 and 26-27, e.g., in the decade 2031-2043.

The reduction in land temperature over the next 30 years may have important implications for different parts of the planet for vegetation growth, agriculture, food supply, and heating needs in the northern and southern hemispheres. This global cooling during the next grand solar minimum (2020-2053) may offset for three decades any signs of global warming and would require intergovernmental efforts to address the problems of heat and food supply for the Earth's entire population.
 

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From SpaceWeather 08-25-2022

A STRANGELY MAGNETIZED SUNSPOT: A new sunspot (provisionally numbered AR3088) is emerging in the sun's southern hemisphere. Its magnetic field is not normal:


The sunspot, which didn't even exist yesterday, is inset in this Solar Dynamics Observatory map of magnetic fields on the sun. According to Hale's Law, the magnetic poles of this southern sunspot should be arranged +/-, that is, positive (+) on the left and negative (-) on the right. Instead, it is rotated 90 degrees; positive (+) is on top and negative (-) is on the bottom.
This is a rare "perpendicular sunspot." Its magnetic poles are orthogonal to the sun's equator. What's going on? Something unusual may be happening to the sun's magnetic dynamo beneath the surface where this sunspot is growing. We'll keep an eye on AR3088 to see what happens next.
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 25

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Regions AR3088 and AR3089 have been flaring with minor B-class and C-class flares. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.6 event observed at 10:01 UTC on August 25 from AR3089

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun, AR3085, AR3086, AR3087 and new regions AR3088 and AR3089

AR3088 is a group of 10 sunspots located on the southwest limb (S26W38) with size 240MH and a beta magnetic configuration. (See @Olivierlejardinier post very interesting what has happened) It does not represent a danger of major M or X class eruptions, but since its apparition has been producing C-class solar flares.
A new sunspot has appeared on the southwest side of the sun (lower right) and has developed to a certain size in about a day

AR3089 is the most active region it has generated 5 C-class solar flares so far. It is a group of 9 sunspots located on the southeast (S24E63) with size 150MH and a beta magnetic configuration. It does not represent a danger of major M or X class eruptions, But it has big chances of still generating C-class solar.

The rare AR3086 anemone type region
We often focus on coronal holes because they’re the origin of high-speed solar wind that can impact Earth, creating auroral displays. But, today, a large coronal hole in the sun’s southeast quadrant appears to have a sunspot region inside of it. This is rare. Coronal holes are regions where the magnetic field from the sun has only one polarity, either positive (north) or negative (south). Sunspot regions contain areas of both polarities, like a bar magnet, positive and negative (north and south). So here we have a sunspot region emerging within a coronal hole. Solar physicists have remarked that this sort of region resembles a sea anemone, and the name has stuck. We now call them anemone regions. Sun scientists first noticed this type of region in the 1970s, with observations by the soft x-ray telescope aboard Skylab. They studied anemone regions more extensively in the 1990s with the soft x-ray telescope on the Yohkoh spacecraft. These regions are complicated! They’re one of the many weird things about the sun that scientists are actively researching. EarthSky.com
Aug-25-22-Sun-activity-coronal-hole.jpg

This region reminded me of the 2009 Kingston Coombes Medusa crop circle that is commonly associated with a solar event.

images (1).jpeg

... Just a curiosity

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 46. The forecast is for a 60% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares in the next 24 hours

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 16:41 UTC on Aug 24

Current Conditions at 14:30 UTC August 25

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 403.1 km/sec
▪︎density: 2.68 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.0% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 46 (SN 52 Aug 24)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Aug. 29th.
SpaceWeatherlive..com
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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Two flares at once.

Solar X-Rays reached moderate levels with a peak of M1.8 at 19:30 UTC (Aug 25). Both AR 3088 and 3089 were flaring at the same time, although it looks that the event around 3089 was the brightest of the two.

SolarHam.com
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We don't know who shot first. 😅

The M1.8 generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over north Pacific Ocean

▪︎Meanwhile in the southeast
PLASMA FOREST: Astronomers are monitoring a large prominence on the southeastern limb of the sun. If trees were made of plasma, this is what the forest would look like:
forest_strip.jpg
Photographer Philippe Tosi inserted a picture of Earth for scale; the 'trees' are ten times taller than our entire planet. "The seeing was only medium today in Nîmes, France, but the prominence is so large I was able to take a good picture anyway," says Tosi. SpaceWeather.com
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 26

All of a sudden, sun activity has increased from a very low to strong level. The reason lies in the abrupt appearance of the region AR3088 which is located on the southwest and the emergence of AR3089 on the southeast. (In fact they have been working in tandem) As we already know both regions had a simultaneous solar flare yesterday. But the activity did not end there, 4 hours after the simultaneous eruption, AR3089 triggered another M-class flare, this time a M1.04 flare at 23:27 UTC on Aug 25. It generated also a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Southeast Asia


Next, it was the turn of AR3088 which generated at 10:55 UTC on August 26 an M2.1 flare causing a minor R1 radio blackout over Africa and the Mediterranean.

Then it was the turn of AR3089, which at 11:15 UTC triggered an M1 flare that also caused a small radio blackout over the same area, but it was only a warning of what was to come at 12:16 UTC.

STRONG SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY: Sunspot AR3089 is crackling with a series of intensifying M-class solar flares. The strongest so far (Aug. 26 @ 1216 UT) registered M7 and caused a shortwave radio blackout over much of Europe and Africa. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:
m7_strip.jpg
We do not yet know if this explosion hurled a CME into space. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. Meanwhile, AR3089 appears to be on the verge of producing an X-flare. SpaceWeather.com

The two regions have been the most active so far. In fact as I write this AR3089 has generated an M3.6 and a M1.8

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun, AR3085, AR3086, AR3087, AR3088, AR3089 and a new AR3090

AR3090 is a sunspot located on the northeast (N14E60) with size 10MH and a alfa magnetic configuration. It has a low probability (1%) of generate minor or strong flares

The total number of sunspots has increased to 94 The forecast is for a 60% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares in the next 24 hours
hmi200.gif

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 14:25 UTC on Aug 25

Current Conditions at 15:30 UTC August 26

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 319.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.59 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.0% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 94 (SN 46 Aug 25)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Aug. 29th.
SpaceWeatherlive..com
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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
A long duration M4.8 solar flare from AR3088 occurred at 02:54 UTC on Aug 27


Previous to this eruption and at 12:31 UTC on the 26th, the AR3089 region produced an M5.4 eruption. As shown in the following table, this region located southeast is the most active one.

The top 10 solar flares from sunspot region 13089​

StartMaximumEnd
1M7.22022/08/2612:08
12:14​
12:21​
2​
M5.4
2022/08/26​
12:24​
12:31​
12:38​
3​
M2.1​
2022/08/26​
10:41​
10:55​
11:05​
4​
M1.0​
2022/08/25​
23:21​
23:27​
23:32​
5​
C7.4​
2022/08/25​
17:49​
17:58​
18:13​
6​
C7.1​
2022/08/26​
08:47​
08:59​
09:04​
7​
C6.1​
2022/08/26​
03:05​
03:08​
03:12​
8​
C5.3​
2022/08/26​
08:34​
08:40​
08:47​
9​
C4.4​
2022/08/26​
02:42​
02:53​
03:05​
10​
C3.6​
2022/08/25​
09:53​
10:01​
10:05​
AR3089 SpaceWeatherlive
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 27

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M7 2 from AR3089. This sunspot has been growing in size and magnetic complexity since its appearance, its size went from 150 to 220 millionths of a hemisphere in three days, yesterday its magnetic configuration was Beta-Gamma and it is the most active region followed by AR3088.

AR3088 generated a M1.2 flare at 11:38 UTC on Aug 27 and produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa

AR3088 blasted an M4.2 flare (see previous post)
THE EXPLOSIONS CONTINUE: For the second day in a row, the sun is crackling with M-class solar flares. The strongest today, so far, is an M4-class flare from "perpendicular sunspot" AR3088. The blast sent a towering shock wave through the sun's atmosphere, recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory
m4shockwave_strip.gif
Debris from the explosion might be heading for Earth. Weekend images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) will reveal the trajectory of any emerging CME. Stay tuned for updates as the explosions continue. SpaceWeather.com

We are awaiting confirmation of whether the solar radiation storm recorded around 12:00 UTC is associated with the CME
Solar radiation storms occur when a large-scale magnetic eruption, often causing a coronal mass ejection and associated solar flare, accelerates charged particles in the solar atmosphere to very high velocities. The most important particles are protons which can get accelerated to large fractions of the speed of light. At these velocities, the protons can traverse the 150 million km from sun to Earth in just 10’s of minutes or less. When they reach Earth, the fast moving protons penetrate the magnetosphere that shields Earth from lower energy charged particles. Once inside the magnetosphere, the particles are guided down the magnetic field lines and penetrate into the atmosphere near the north and south poles.NOAA.gov

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun, AR3085, AR3086, AR3087, AR3088, AR3089, AR3090 is gone

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 88 The forecast is for a 90% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field had been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours, however at 12:59 UTC on August 27 was recorded an active geomagnetic field (Kp =4) Solar wind speed reached a peak of 371.8 km/sec at 13:06 UTC

Current Conditions at 13:50 UTC August 27

▪︎Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 364.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 22.93 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.1% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 88 (SN 94 Aug 26)
▪︎Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Aug. 29th when a high-speed stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth. The gaseous material is flowing from a Coronal hole.

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 28

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4.8 from AR3088 on Aug 27. AR3088 is the most active region so far, it has generated on Aug 28th three M-class flares and five C-class flares. The M flares caused minor R1 radio blackouts on Pacific Ocean, on North America and the last one over South Asia


NOAA has confirmed that the M4.8 generated a CME and issued a G1 geomagnetic storm watch for August 28-29 for this possible arrival:

G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for 28-29 August published: Saturday, August 27, 2022 17:15 UTC. A CME was observed emerging from the SE limb near 27/0224 UTC in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery.

It was also confirmed that the M4.8 flare was the cause of a solar proton blast that reached S1 storm levels at 11:30 UTC on August 27
Yesterday's solar wind density was 22.93 protons/cm3.

The same regions remain on the Earth-facing side of the sun, AR3085, AR3086, AR3087, AR3088, AR3089.
hmi200.gif
AR3088 will leave in the next few hours but it is worth noting that the region has grown considerably, its current size is 480 millionths of a hemisphere, in comparison the Earth has an area of 169MH

The anemone region AR3086 is still embedded within a coronal hole and remains stable. Its current size is 70MH and it has generated isolated C-class and B-class flares

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 84 The forecast is for a 95% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 25% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 20:58 UTC on Aug 27. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp= 4) were reached at 11:59 UTC. An isolated G2 storm is possible in late August 29 as the high-speed solar wind from a coronal hole combines with the effects of the CME glancing blow.

Current Conditions at 15:15 UTC August 28

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 432.6km/sec
▪︎density: 6.30 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.5% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 84 (SN 88 Aug 27)

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