Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 13

Sun activity may be picking up. There were seven minor C class flares in the past day. Plus we saw filaments and prominences dancing all around the solar disk. The largest solar event of the period was a long duration C6.9 that started at 07:14 UTC and end at 07:48 on August 13, 2022 from AR3079 In fact, all seven solar flares came from the same region.

▪︎Another Sundiving comet

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558291008718221314

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3071, AR3074, AR3076, AR3077, AR3078, AR3079, AR3080 and new region AR3081

AR3081 Is a group of nine sunspots located on the northeast (N12E50) with a beta magnetic field and a size of 100MH. This region has the energy to produce class C eruptions with a 50% chance of occurrence.

All of these sunspots have stable magnetic fields, no threat for strong flares M or X. The total number of sunspots has increased to 97

OPINION: 2003 Halloween event as an example (in modern times) that refutes the alleged "worst case scenario" during solar cycle 25 that is promoted by the media

In June 21 the Ministry of the Interior and Communications (MIC) published the report of the "Study Group on the Advancement of Space Weather Forecasting". This was covered in the media, and "solar flares" seemed to be a trending topic.

More than a month after the release of the MIC report, "solar flares" are still attracting attention in various media. I would like to take this opportunity to explain about extreme solar flares, which are the premise of the "worst-case scenario assumption,"

The worst-case scenario for space weather is based on the assumption of "a series of X10-class or larger flares over a two-week period". This two-week period corresponds to half of the Sun's rotation as seen from the Earth (see below). In other words, a sunspot will emerge from the Sun's eastern rim and produce a series of flares until it dips to the western rim.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558043202354962432

The scale of a flare is determined by looking at the peak X-ray values measured by the U.S. GOES meteorological satellite and combining the scale labels A, B, C, M, and X, from smallest to largest, with a number between 1 and 10

X10 is one digit above the normal X class scale range.

Intense activity with multiple X10-class flares while sunspots are visible on the solar surface has occurred in the past, though rarely. The most recent well-known example is the "2003 Halloween Event" which occurred in late October/early November 2003.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558046410800373761

During the 2003 Halloween event, X17.2, X10.0, and X28+ flares occurred over an eight-day period from October 28 to November 4. The X28+ flare on November 4 exceeded the upper limit (X17.4) of the GOES satellite's onboard X-ray sensor, so the peak is an estimate and the largest flare measured in X-rays. It is the largest flare ever measured in X-rays.

The 2003 Halloween event was also accompanied by frequent coronal mass ejections (CMEs), in which a portion of the solar corona is ejected into space in a blast-like manner in conjunction with a flare. Some CMEs arrived at Earth and caused severe magnetic storms, resulting in a red low-latitude aurora in Rikubetsu, Hokkaido, Japan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558309160336273408

Large flares occur in large sunspot groups, and the X17.2, X10.0, and X28+ flares of late October and early November 2003 were caused by AR10486, a sunspot group in the southern hemisphere of the Sun with an area as large as Jupiter's diameter. Sunspot groups of this size can be seen with the naked eye using eclipse glasses even without a telescope.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558311503073198081

The current peak of the 25th solar activity cycle is expected to occur around 2025. Focusing on the number of solar flares, both C-class and above flares and X-class ones increase with the number of sunspots (see graph). However, based on this, we cannot say with certainty that extreme solar flares of X10 or higher will occur in 2025.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 12/01:59 UTC Geospace is expected to be unsettled during August 13, as high-speed solar wind from a equatorial coronal hole diminishes.

Current Conditions at 13:30 UTC August 13

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 516.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.61 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.5% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 97 (SN 58 Aug 12)
▪︎Solar wind flowiing from this long equatorial coronal hole should reach Eath on August 18-19.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 14

Sun activity is still low, but continues to increase steadily. The largest solar event of the period was a C6.7 event observed at 13:05 UTC on Aug 13 from Region 3079 The flare is seen emitting light in the mid-southwest (lower right) direction.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558452349693177856

AR3078 is crackling with C-class solar flares too, this day has produced three minor class C solar flares.

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3071, AR3074, AR3076, AR3078, AR3079, AR3080, AR3081. AR3077 is gone and soon AR3071 and AR3080 will be gone as well.

The most active sunspot region is AR3079 (S10W40) however AR3081 (N09E37) is growing rapidly and could soon become a source of Earth-directed flares. The total number of sunspots has increased to 116

The forecast is for a 90% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

BREAKING WAVE: Yesterday in the core of sunspot AR3078, an S-shaped strand of magnetism erupted. What happened next was a little unusual. A blast wave shot out sideways and broke against the wall of a nearby coronal hole:

Coronal holes are voids in the sun's atmosphere where magnetic fields open up, allowing solar wind to escape. The hole's nearly vertical magnetic walls and outflowing stream of solar wind stopped this blast in its tracks.

The S-shaped filament, called a "sigmoid," re-formed after the explosion. Sigmoids are notoriously unstable, so more eruptions may be in the offing. SpaceWeather.com

A coronal hole stretching across the sun's northern and southern hemispheres will be sending a stream of high-speed solar wind toward Earth.

Solar physicists call it a transequatorial coronal hole because it crosses the solar equator. In a few more days, this hole could pass in front of Earth, increasing our chances of geomagnetic activity and auroras.


▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 22:02 UTC on Aug 13. The magnetic field is expected to be unsettled in the next 24 hours as high-speed solar wind from an earlier coronal hole continues to diminish.

Current Conditions at 13:40 UTC August 14

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 485.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.46 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.7% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 116 (SN 97 Aug 13)
SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

DRAMATIC EXPLOSION ON THE SUN: The sun just hurled a plume of dark plasma into space following a dramatic explosion around sunspot AR3076. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast, which began on Aug. 14th around 1130 UT:

Traveling faster than 600 km/s (1.3 million mph), the plume tore through the sun's outer atmosphere, creating a coronal mass ejection (CME). Newly arriving images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) confirm that the CME has an Earth-directed component. It could sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 17th, producing minor to moderate geomagnetic storms
SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558880988339396608

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558897187580284929

Remember that in addition to this CME we will have a solar wind stream coming from the transequatorial coronal hole which is V-shaped.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558694469053992960

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558965652882305029

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 15

Solar activity has been increasing steadily for the last two days, however, remains at low level for solar records. Most of the flaring is now confined to low-level C flares with 11 C flares and only 2 B flares in the last 24 hours The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 1400 UTC on Aug 14 from Region 3079 (S11W39).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559146295989878784

An Earth-directed CME associated with the filament eruption from AR3076 (see previous post) is estimated to reach Earth on August 16 or August 17. Material was blasted away from the sun at more than 1.3 million mph (2.1 million kph).

Type II radio emissions were detected from the the two solar eruptions (AR3076 and AR3079) indicating a CME.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559149354723774467

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3071, AR3074, AR3076, AR3078, AR3079, AR3081. AR3080 is gone

The most active region is 3079 which has grown in size from 70MH at the beginning to 150MH at present, as well as the number of sunspots from 8 to 12.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 104. The forecast for the next 24h is 90% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 0010 UTC on August 14

Current Conditions at 14:20 UTC August 15

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 441.6km/sec
▪︎density: 1.46 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.4% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 104 (SN 116 Aug 14)
▪︎Expect increasingly unsettled conditions, with a good chance for a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm, as high-speed solar wind from the long coronal hole combines with the expected CME impact.

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

Well, it looks like our sun is coming back from vacation.

DRAMATIC EXPLOSION ON THE SUN: The sun just hurled a plume of dark plasma into space following a dramatic explosion around sunspot AR3076. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast, which began on Aug. 14th around 1130 UT:
View attachment 62522
Traveling faster than 600 km/s (1.3 million mph), the plume tore through the sun's outer atmosphere, creating a coronal mass ejection (CME). Newly arriving images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) confirm that the CME has an Earth-directed component. It could sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 17th, producing minor to moderate geomagnetic storms
SpaceWeather.com

▪︎AR3076 Update.

REVERSED POLARITY SUNSPOT: The sunspot (AR3076) that produced yesterday's dark plasma explosion is a little unusual. It has its signs backwards.

According to Hale’s Law, Solar Cycle 25 sunspots in the sun’s northern hemisphere should have a -/+ polarity; negative on the left, positive on the right. However, the magnetogram above shows the opposite. AR3076 is a reversed polarity sunspot.

Studies show that about 3% of all sunspots violate Hale’s Law. In many ways, reversed polarity sunspots are just like other sunspots. For instance, they have the same lifespan and tend to be about the same size as normal sunspots. In one key way they are different: According to a 1982 survey by Frances Tang of the Big Bear Solar Observatory, reversed polarity sunspots are more than twice as likely to develop complex magnetic fields mixing + and – together. Reversed polarity sunspots are therefore more likely to explode.

This one sure did, and a CME is now heading for Earth. Don't miss the impact.

SpaceWeather.com Dark plasma explosion

▪︎AR3078 has generated two M-class solar flares this morning/afternoon both produced minor Radio blackouts

The first was a long duration M1.02 that began at 14:27 UTC (peak 14:36, end:14:42) of today Aug.15 it generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over north Atlantic Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559198513518432256

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559187993042239488

The second was a long duration M2.7 that began at 16:40 UTC (peak 16:54, end 16:58) it generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Gulf of Mexico and Caribe

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559222705278287872

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 16

Sun activity has increased to moderate levels with flares, eruptive filaments, CMEs.

AR3078 has rapidly grown in complexity. It now harbors a lot of magnetic energy. This region alone produced 4 M-class solar flares,
an M1, then an M2.7, (see previous post) another M1 then an M5 flare, it also generated 9 C-class solar flares.

▪︎A long duration M1 flare was observed at 21:52 UTC on Aug 15 it generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over north Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559298201852706822

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559346965472841729

▪︎The largest solar event of the period was a M5 observed at 07:58 UTC on Aug 16 it generated a Moderate R2 Radio blackout over India and Middle east

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559450663322587137

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559469984228818944

(It was updated to M5)

Currently, this has given us at least three Earth-directed CMEs.

A CANNIBAL CME IS COMING: On Aug. 14th, a dark plasma eruption hurled one CME toward Earth. On Aug. 15th, an exploding magnetic filament launched another one right behind it. The two CMEs will arrive together on Aug.18th, according to the latest forecast model from NOAA:

This could be a "Cannibal CME" event. In other words, the second CME might overtake and gobble up the first, creating a mish-mash of the two. Cannibal CMEs contain tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can spark strong geomagnetic storms.

In this case, NOAA forecasters expect G1 (minor) to G2-class (moderate) geomagnetic storms. During such storms naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as New York and Idaho (geomagnetic latitude 55 degrees). SpaceWeather.com ​

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3074, AR3076, AR3078, AR3079, AR3081. AR3071 is gone. Two regions will leave the solar disk in the next few hours AR3074 and AR3079

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 92. The forecast is for a 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 01:27 UTC on Aug 15

Current Conditions at 13:50 UTC August 16

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 382.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.8 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.9% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 92 (SN 104 Aug 15)
▪︎Expect increasingly unsettled conditions, with a good chance for a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm, as high-speed solar wind from the long coronal hole combines with the expected CME impact.

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 17

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. Sunspot region AR3078 (S23W18) is once again the main player of the day with 9 flares on August 16 and 7 flares so far, most of them class C. The largest solar event of the period was a long duration M1.86 flare on August 16 at 21:21 UTC. It generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over north Pacific Ocean.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559726620004474884

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559652310950764548

Earth facing sunspot region 3078 has now a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559472470058483713

The second most active sunspot region today is new AR3082 it has generated three C class flares so far.

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3074, AR3078, AR3079, AR3081 and two new regions AR3082 and AR3083

AR3082 is located on the northeast (N27E36) It has grown rapidly from a group of 3 sunspots and a size of 10 MH at its inception on August 16 to 8 sunspots and a size of 50MH so far. AR3082 has a beta magnetic field and poses no threat of major M or X class flares.

AR3083 Is a group of 3 sunspots currently located on the southwest (S24W42) with size 30MH and a beta magnetic field. Poses no threat of major M or X class flares.

AR3076 is gone and two regions will leave the solar disk in the next few hours AR3074 and AR3079

The total number of sunspots has increased to 119 The forecast is for a 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

THE IMPACTS HAVE BEGUN: A minor CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 17th (0303 UT). It could be the first of several CME strikes in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters say their cumulative effect could cause strong G3-class geomagnetic storms, especially on Aug. 18-19. During such storms naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as Illinois and Oregon (geomagnetic latitude 50 degrees). SpaceWeather.com

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC August 17

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 461.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.74 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +3.9% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 119 (SN 92 Aug 16)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from the trans-equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on August 18-19

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

AR3078 and Geomagnetic storm update Aug 17

SUNSPOT AR3078 KEEPS EXPLODING: For the 3rd day in a row, active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong M-class solar flares. The latest, an M2-category explosion on Aug. 17th (1345 UT),

A CME will almost certainly emerge from the blast site (confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO). But will it hit Earth? Like other CMEs AR3078 has produced this week, this one will skate the southern edge of the Earth strike zone. If it does hit us, the blow will be grazing, not full strength. SpaceWeather.com

The long-duration M2 flare started at 13:26 UTC, peaked at 13:45 UTC, and ended at 13:50 UTC. It generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean. There is a coronal mass ejection associated and possibly in the direction of Earth.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559899881426280448

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559944715788865542

A second event was a M1.07 solar flare that started at 14:28 UTC, peaked at 14:52 UTC, and ended at 15:10 UTC. It generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559970470576914432

▪︎Geomagnetic storm has begun

Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) threshold Reached at 17:27 UTC. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) began at 18:54 UTC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559975633698029568

Alert for the effects on the weather that could be generated as a consequence of this solar storm.

▪︎The sound of the Sun... is frightening (turn the sound on)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559887400423153665

 

[Puma]

Geomagnetic storm in progress update

Moderate Geomagnetic storms G2 now (Kp=6) Threshold Reached: 20:08 UTC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559997146325291009

What are the hazards of magnetic storms?

Our technology based infrastructure can be adversely affected by rapid magnetic field variations. This is especially true during “magnetic storms."

Because the ionosphere is heated and distorted during storms, long range radio communication that relies on sub-ionospheric reflection can be difficult or impossible and global-positioning system (GPS) communications can be degraded.

Ionospheric expansion can increase satellite drag and make their orbits difficult to control.

During magnetic storms, satellite electronics can be damaged through the build up and discharge of static-electric charges. Astronauts and high altitude pilots can be subjected to increased levels of radiation.

Even though rapid magnetic field variations are generated by currents in space, very real effects can result down here on the Earth’s surface. That includes voltage surges in power grids that cause blackouts.

What are the hazards of magnetic storms? | U.S. Geological Survey

Our technology based infrastructure can be adversely affected by rapid magnetic field variations. This is especially true during “magnetic storms." Because the ionosphere is heated and distorted during storms, long range radio communication that relies on sub-ionospheric reflection can be...

www.usgs.gov

Geomagnetic Storms and their Influence on the Human Brain Functional State

An investigation of the influence of geomagnetic storms of various intensities on healthy adults' human brain activity and its functional state was conducted. Results of electroencephalogram (EEG) investigations were used as the most objective method reflecting functional state of the human brain. Studies on the influence of geomagnetic storms on the human brain functional state of healthy adult women patients (permanent group) in states of relaxation, photo-stimulation and hyper-ventilation have revealed a negative influence of severe geomagnetic storms on functional state of the human brain. As a rule, during periods of strong geomagnetic disturbances, indisposition, weakness and presence of indistinct localized headaches were recorded for majority of patients. Complex of nonspecific shifts on EEG reflects disorganization of functional activity of cortex of large hemispheres of the human brain at geomagnetically disturbed days, which is likely connected with dysfunction of integrative subcortical systems, with disbalance of its ascending synchronizing and desynchronizing influences. Imbalance of activating and deactivating mechanisms including dysfunctions of ergo- and tropho-tropic over-segmentary centers was registered. Strengthening cortical connections in the right cortical hemisphere and their short circuit on temporal sections during geomagnetically disturbed days were observed, while, in geomagnetically quiet days, a profile of correlation interrelations reflected weak internal- and inter-hemispheric connections. The threshold of convulsive (spasmodic) readiness of the human brain is reduced, which is especially dangerous for risk group persons. It is established that, in general, weak and moderate geomagnetic storms exert stimulating influence while strong disturbances of geomagnetic conditions activate braking (inhibiting) processes.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228762769_Geomagnetic_Storms_and_their_Influence_on_the_Human_Brain_Functional_State

 

[Wandering Star]

Today I woke up with a very strong head pressure. It's not pain, it's like something squeezed my brain and it worked slower.

So I thought that the cme announced by Puma was already upon me.

As I write this the "pressure" has dropped a bit or I have "acclimatized".

 

[dennis]

Here is a study of data through 2016 illustrating some observed changes in the sun

26 May 2017
ABSTRACT
We examine the frequency shifts in low-degree helioseismic modes from the Birmingham Solar- Oscillations Network (BiSON) covering the period from 1985 – 2016, and compare them with a number of global activity proxies well as a latitudinally-resolved magnetic index. As well as looking at frequency shifts in different frequency bands, we look at a parametrization of the shift as a cubic function of frequency. While the shifts in the medium- and high-frequency bands are very well correlated with all of the activity indices (with the best correlation being with the 10.7 cm radio flux), we confirm earlier findings that there ap- pears to have been a change in the frequency response to activity during solar cycle 23, and the low-frequency shifts are less correlated with activity in the last two cycles than they were in Cycle 22. At the same time, the more recent cycles show a slight increase in their sensitivity to activity levels at medium and higher fre- quencies, perhaps because a greater proportion of activity is composed of weaker or more ephemeral regions. This lends weight to the speculation that a fundamental change in the nature of the solar dynamo may be in progress.
...
Upton & Hathaway (2014) have suggested that it was actually a weak Cycle 23 that was responsible for the following, extended minimum and weak Cycle 24. Jiang et al. (2015) have proposed that observed weak polar magnetic fields, and as a result the weak Cycle 24, may have resulted from the emergence of low-latitude flux having the opposite polarity to that expected (which then hin- dered growth of the polar fields). Predictions for Cycle 25 are now beginning to appear (e.g., see Pesnell 2016)
..
We have used the latest BiSON helioseismic data to show that pre- viously uncovered changes in the structure of the near-surface lay- ers of the Sun, which date back to the latter stages of Cycle 22 (around 1994), have persisted through the declining phase of the current, weak Cycle 24. The acoustic properties have as such failed to re-set to their pre-1994 state.

https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/archivos_pdf/sun-in-transition.pdf

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUG 18

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event from Region 3078 (S20W34, see post #368) Today August 18 AR3078 has generated 8 C-class solar flares and two M-class:

▪︎ A M1.4 event observed at 10:09 UTC generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa and Europe. Later at 10:55 UTC a M1.6 generated a R1 Radio blackout in the same zone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1560207907513401344

https://twitter.com/x/status/1560136407309377537

https://twitter.com/x/status/1560243850530004993

There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun: AR3078, AR3081, AR3082 and AR3083
AR3074 and AR3079 are gone

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 83. The forecast is for a 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.

A G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp =6) was recorded at 20:08 UTC on August 17 and around 10:00 UTC the geomagnetic storm subsided.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1560058064908214273

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say that strong G3-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Aug. 18-19 when a series of CMEs is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. During such storms naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as Illinois and Oregon (geomagnetic latitude 50 degrees). Satellites and power grids will not be affected, however. An extreme storm would be required for that. SpaceWeather.com

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC August 18

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now KP=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 580.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.08 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.5% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 83 (SN 119 Aug 17)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from the trans-equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on August 18-19

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

Hi @dennis

Here is a study of data through 2016 illustrating some observed changes in the sun

The current solar activity Cycle 24 has been significantly weaker than the previous few cycles (e.g., see Hathaway 2015). These
changes were signposted by the unusually extended and deep solar minimum at the boundary of Cycles 23 and 24. Very few of the predictions collated by the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel (Pesnell 2008, 2012) forecast the extent of the minimum or the low levels of activity that followed.

Very interesting, the same is being said about this cycle 25, it is even weaker than cycle 24.

 

[dennis]

Hello Puma,

Very interesting, the same is being said about this cycle 25, it is even weaker than cycle 24.

observed weak polar magnetic fields, and as a result the weak Cycle 24, may have resulted from the emergence of low-latitude flux having the opposite polarity to that expected (which then hindered growth of the polar fields)

Magnetic flux is a measurement of the total magnetic field which passes through a given area.
...
If we use the field-line picture of a magnetic field then every field line passing through the given area contributes some magnetic flux. The angle at which the field line intersects the area is also important. A field line passing through at a glancing angle will only contribute a small component of the field to the magnetic flux. When calculating the magnetic flux we include only the component of the magnetic field vector which is normal to our test area.

https://www.khanacademy.org/science/physics/magnetic-forces-and-magnetic-fields/magnetic-flux-faradays-law/a/what-is-magnetic-flux

 

[Puma]

Geomagnetic Storm update

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) began at 14:54 UTC up to this moment (20:19) we have had 5 hours of geomagnetic storm. Currently the solar wind speed is 552.1 km/sec


Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

...we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320949807_Will_Solar_Cycles_25_and_26_Be_Weaker_than_Cycle_24

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536269611079028736