Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 13_2023

ALL QUIET. It seems that Solar Physicist Keith Strong is right when he mentioned that we have reached a peak of solar activity and that the next peak would come in September or October. So, as of August 10 and after an intense activity with M-class flares, we have for the third consecutive day low levels of solar activity. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09:15 UTC on August 12 from Region 3395 (N13W44)​

There are currently 4 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3394, AR3395 AR3397, AR3401
AR3391, AR3399, and AR3400 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 91 (21 of these are grouped into 4 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3395 (N13W44 size 180MH) continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On August 12 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s (Elevated speed) at 09:48 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21:03 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.17 nT South


● Current Conditions at 03:10 UTC on August 13

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 396 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.82 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.49 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 23:52 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 91 (SN 105 August 12)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
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SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 14_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.The largest solar event of the period was a C2.4 event observed at 09:53 UTC on August 13 from Region 3395 (N13W57)

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3394, AR3395 AR3397, AR3401 snd new regions AR3402, AR3403, AR3404

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 61 (30 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3395 (N13W57 size 100MH) continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On August 13 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s (Elevated speed) at 00:06 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 00:31 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.37 nT Norte


● Current Conditions at 03:50 UTC on August 14

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 359 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.82 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.31 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.1% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 22:37 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 91 (SN 105 August 12)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
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SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 15_2023

QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: The sun has gone quiet with a sudden (and almost certainly temporary) drop in the sunspot number. However, there is still a chance of flares. Remaining sunspot AR3395 has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class explosions SpaceWeather.com

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.The largest solar event of the period was a C8.9 event observed at 21:10 UTC on August 14 from AR3405 (N11E75)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691258336652435456

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3394, AR3395 AR3397, AR3402, AR3403, AR3404 and new region AR3405

AR3401 is gone


Total number of sunspots has increased to 85 (26 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On August 14 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s (Normal speed) at 06:08 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01:34 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.54 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on August 15

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 304 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5.02 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 2.59 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.9% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 03:10 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 85 (SN 91 August 14)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
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[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 16_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 06:57 UTC on August 15 from AR3395 (N12W87)

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3395, AR3397, AR3403, AR3404 AR3405 and new regions AR3406, AR3407​

AR3394 and AR3402 are gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 107 (37 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields​

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: A new sunspot (AR3405) is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb, and it appears to pose a threat for M-class solar flares. Just hours ago it produced a flare only percentage points below M-class. The same explosion hurled a bright CME into space. According to a NASA model, the CME will hit Mercury sometime tomorrow. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On August 15 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 336 km/s (Normal speed) at 03:27 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17:17 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.12 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on August 16

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 276.5 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.68 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.69 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.9% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 21:55 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 107 (SN 85 August 15)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
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[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 17_2023

QUIET WEDNESDAY: The sun is peppered with sunspots--usually a sign of high solar activity. In this case, however, all of the sunspots have stable magnetic fields that pose little threat for strong flares. NOAA forecasters say there is no more than a 1% chance of X-flares on Aug. 16th. SpaceWeather.com

Lots of missing data so very few events to report.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691991055686672562

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21:52 UTC on August 1 from AR3405 (N10E65)

There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3397, AR3403, AR3404 AR3405, AR3406, AR3407 and new regions AR3408,
AR3409, AR3410

AR3395 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 140 (50 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On August 16 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s (Normal speed) at 14:13 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19:10 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.08 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on August 17

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 329 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3.3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7.06 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.4% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 02;46 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 140 (SN 107 August 16)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
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SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 18_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 12:40 UTC on August 17 from AR3397 (N17W83)

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3397, AR3403, AR3404 AR3405, AR3406, AR3407, AR3408, AR3409, AR3410
and new region AR3411

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 135 (47 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

THE WILSON EFFECT: The air in the French Alps was unusually steady on Aug. 15th when Thierry Legault pointed his telescope at the sun and captured a phenomenon rarely seen by amateur astronomers. It's called the "Wilson effect:"​

"The sunspot's umbra is lower than the average solar surface, with surrounding penumbral filaments dipping down into it," says Legault. "The filaments are visible on the far edge of the 'bowl,' but not on the near edge, highlighting the depression."

Scottish astronomer Alexander Wilson discovered the effect in 1769 during Solar Cycle 2. In daily observations, he noticed that sunspots approaching the sun's limb were foreshortened and often appeared to be sunken or depressed in the middle. (The same observations proved that sunspots were features on the solar surface, not, say, dark satellites orbiting just above the sun.)

The Wilson effect has been debated for more than 250 years. Is it real? Some researchers in the 1950s argued that it was a purely psychological effect. Others retorted that observers couldn't be crazy; there was too much photographic evidence. Although the cause of the Wilson effect is still debated, many modern researchers take it at face value: Sunspots are shallow depressions. One idea holds that high pressure systems trapped in the magnetic canopies of sunspots press down on the underlying umbra, creating a dark bowl. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On August 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 348 km/s (Normal speed) at 16:27 UTC. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29:30 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.18 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on August 18

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 428 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5.54 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 12.73 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.2% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 23;40 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 135 (SN 140 August 17)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
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SpaceWeather.com

 

[mabar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692529259028336967

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 19_2023

QUIET WEEKEND: Although the sunspot number remains high, we should not expect any strong flares this weekend. All eight sunspot groups on the solar disk have stable magnetic fields, which are unlikely to explode. SpaceWeather.com

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.The largest solar event of the period was a C3.7 event observed at 19:30 UTC on August 18 from AR3409 (N20W42)

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3403, AR3404 AR3405, AR3406, AR3407, AR3408, AR3409, AR3410, AR3411 and new region AR3412

AR3397 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 112 (47 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On August 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 12:46 UTC. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 02:08 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.72 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on August 19

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 507 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 9.2 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.06 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.2% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 21;59 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 112 (SN 135 August 18)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692732143661666323

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 20_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 06:48 UTC on August 19 from AR3410 (S30W75)

There are currently 8 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3403, AR3404 AR3405, AR3407, AR3409, AR3410, AR3411, AR3412

AR3406 and AR3408 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 104 (47 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.

Strange... the sun affects Neptune's weather, but not the earth's since climate change is man's fault according to the UN and other climate authorities

SUNSPOTS MAKE CLOUDS ON NEPTUNE: A new paper published Aug. 17th in the research journal Icarus offers dramatic proof that solar activity can affect planetary weather. The big surprise: That planet is Neptune, 2.5 billion miles from the sun. Twenty-six years of images taken by the Hubble Space Telescope show bright clouds forming in sync with the 11-year solar cycle:The connection between Neptune and solar activity is surprising to planetary scientists because Neptune is our solar system's farthest major planet and receives only 0.1% of the sunlight Earth receives. Yet Neptune's cloudy weather seems to be driven by solar activity, and not the planet's four seasons, which each last approximately 40 years
"This is extremely exciting and unexpected," says Erandi Chavez, a graduate student at Harvard-Smithsonian's Center for Astrophysics, who led the study when she was a student at UC Berkeley.
The research team confirmed Hubble's results using data from the Webb Space Telescope, the Keck Observatory, and the Lick Observatory. The link between sunspots and Neptune's clouds appears to be solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, which peaks when sunspot counts are high.
Our findings support the theory that the sun's UV rays, when strong enough, may be triggering a photochemical reaction that produces Neptune's clouds," says Imke de Pater, emeritus professor of astronomy at UC Berkeley and a senior co-author of the study
Based on the data so far, it seems to take about two years for Neptune's clouds to fully form once the solar cycle reaches its peak. Solar Cycle 25 is rising now with a peak expected in 2024. This means Neptune's cloudy season is about to begin--a development amateur astronomers may be able to observe.
SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On August 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 07:41 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19:39 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.45 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on August 20

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 508.5 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 2.43 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7.75 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.4% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: B8 at 23:51 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 104 (SN 112 August 19)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ðekel]

Hi Puma,

What is the significance in the map imagery of the Americas being darkened and the green lines ?

 

[Wandering Star]

Hi Puma,

What is the significance in the map imagery of the Americas being darkened and the green lines ?

Perhaps the darkened area is where it is night and the green areas are northern lights areas.

Maybe.

 

[Ðekel]

Perhaps the darkened area is where it is night and the green areas are northern lights areas.

Maybe.

but all the maps have the same day / night time.
Just wondering if it's always being sampled at a certain time or.... ?

 

[Puma]

Hi Puma,

What is the significance in the map imagery of the Americas being darkened and the green lines ?

It represents the intensity of the northern lights. If you look at other maps on other days, the green lines are more or less bright depending on the intensity. Commonly the northern lights are more intense when a geomagnetic storm occurs or the solar wind speed exceeds 400 km/s, the Bz (Aurora Oval) component points south then the northern lights can be seen at lower latitudes.​

OVATION Auroral Forecast​

This model gives a short-term forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval for both the northern and the southern hemisphere. It is based on the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the right-hand corner of the map. Locations up to 1.000 kilometers (600 miles) north or south of the auroral oval might still see aurora near their horizon during optimal viewing conditions. This model does not take into account the local weather or the altitude of the Sun at your location. SpaceWeatherlive.com ​

Here is an image of what the northern lights would look like during a severe geomagnetic storm (G4)


This happened on April 23, 2023 and the auroras were seen in California, with a beautiful violet color instead of the common green.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650356385237053440

On August 19, 2023 (Solar activity at low levels)


​

but all the maps have the same day / night time.
Just wondering if it's always being sampled at a certain time or.... ?

I usually post the report between 03:00 UTC or 04:00 UTC (GMT stands for 'Greenwich Mean Time' and is equivalent to UTC or Coordinated Universal Time) that means for me (being in Mexico) between 9 or 10 o'clock at night, that's why the Americas appear at night while for people in Europe, for example, it would be 5 or 6 o'clock in the morning.​

Thank you for asking, I hope I have solved your question satisfactorily.

 

[Ðekel]

It represents the intensity of the northern lights. If you look at other maps on other days, the green lines are more or less bright depending on the intensity. Commonly the northern lights are more intense when a geomagnetic storm occurs or the solar wind speed exceeds 400 km/s, the Bz (Aurora Oval) component points south then the northern lights can be seen at lower latitudes.​

Here is an image of what the northern lights would look like during a severe geomagnetic storm (G4)
View attachment 80128

This happened on April 23, 2023 and the auroras were seen in California, with a beautiful violet color instead of the common green.
View attachment 80129

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650356385237053440

On August 19, 2023 (Solar activity at low levels)
View attachment 80130

​

I usually post the report between 03:00 UTC or 04:00 UTC (GMT stands for 'Greenwich Mean Time' and is equivalent to UTC or Coordinated Universal Time) that means for me (being in Mexico) between 9 or 10 o'clock at night, that's why the Americas appear at night while for people in Europe, for example, it would be 5 or 6 o'clock in the morning.​

Thank you for asking, I hope I have solved your question satisfactorily.

Amazing !

Thanks for the explanation ;:-}

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 21_2023

WE ARE STILL IN THE SOLAR PAUSE. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 06:26 UTC on August 20 from AR3409 (N22W70)​

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3403, AR3404 AR3405, AR3407, AR3409, AR3411, AR3412

AR3410 is gone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693427686931066886

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 93 (23 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.​

A SUNSPOT BIG ENOUGH TO SEE FROM MARS: NASA's Mars Perseverence rover looks at the sun once a day to check the air for dust. A dim sun = lots of dust. Over the weekend, the rover found a large sunspot. This animation shows the behemoth crossing the solar disk Aug. 17th through 20th:​

​

Perseverance's images of the sun come from its MASTCAM (stereo mast camera), which puts about 90 pixels across the solar disk. It takes a large sunspot to show up in these low-resolution images. Because Mars is orbiting over the farside of the sun, Perseverance can see approaching sunspots more than a week before we do. Consider this your 1-week warning: A big sunspot is coming. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On August 20 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 690 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 12:00 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05:28 UTC​

ARCTIC AURORA SEASON BEGINS: Earth has entered a stream of high-speed (600 km/s) solar wind, sparking the first Arctic auroras of the season. Sightings in Finland and Sweden show the green glow of geomagnetic activity mixed with twilight blue from the fading Midnight Sun. Soon, Arctic skies will be completely dark and the show will really begin. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.2 nT South


● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on August 21

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 621 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 1.15 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.4% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 01:24 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 93 (SN 104 August 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
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