Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 03_2023

AR3380 (S09W67) continues with high levels of solar activity. This region has produced 5 moderate flares in the last 24h. The largest solar event of the period was an M1.6 event observed at 1452 UTC on August 02 that caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean​

Other events from the same region

●M1.3 at 08:12 UTC it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over India
●M1.2 at 10:50 UTC it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa
●M1.3 at 16:22 UTC it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North America
●M1.1 at 19:14 UTC it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3380, AR3384, AR3386 AR3387, AR3388, AR3389, AR3390, AR3391 AR3392, AR3393

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686741284684173312

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 135 ( 47 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

Sunspot AR3380 poses a threat for M-class solar flares. It continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field. This Active region will be leaving the solar disk in the weekend.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On August 02 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s (Elevated speed) at 01:27 UTC. Active geomagnetic conditions threshold reached at 14:36 UTC Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05:01 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.37 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on August 03

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 352.8 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 8.76 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.26 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.1 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 02:14 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 135 (SN 160 August 02)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686751235825680384

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 04_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2 event observed at 11:55 UTC on August 02 from AR3380 It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean


There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3380, AR3386 AR3387, AR3388, AR3390, AR3391 AR3392, AR3393 and new regions AR3394, AR3395

AR3384 and AR3389 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 124 (35 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687068721225830400

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On August 03 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s (Elevated speed) at 15:09 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20:55 UTC
​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Aug. 4th-5th when one or more faint CMEs are expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. They were hurled in our direction by a series of M-class eruptions from active sunspot AR3380 on Aug. 1st and 2nd. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras later this week. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.75 nT North

​

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on August 04

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 0)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 339.7 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3.02 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9.53 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.1 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C7 at 23:49 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 124 (SN 135 August 03)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687063395990753280

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687062339139387392

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 05_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1.9 event observed at 04:24 UTC on August 04 from AR3386 (N11W62) It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southeast Asia



There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3380, AR3386 AR3387, AR3388, AR3391 AR3392, AR3393, AR3394, AR3395

AR3390 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 122 (32 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

Earth-facing sunspot AR3392 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class

Nemesis?
​

THE EVERSHED EFFECT: Something is sucking plasma out of big sunspots. Earlier today Maximilian Teodorescu observed the process in action from the Bucegi mountains of Romania:​

​

"This is an animation of big sunspot AR3392," he explains. "It shows material flowing out of the sunspot's core for 17 minutes."​

This is known as "the Evershed Effect." British astronomer John Evershed discovered the phenomenon in 1909 while he was working at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory in India. (The government of India made a postage stamp to celebrate his work -- the first-ever stamp to highlight sunspot dynamics.) More than 100 years later researchers still aren't certain what causes the flows. A leading theory holds that material is being siphoned out of the sunspot through magnetic flux tubes much like a milkshake sucked out of a straw.​

The animation above is only a fraction of what Teodorescu saw. The full field of view shows the Evershed Effect happening around the complete circumference of the sunspot. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. On August 04 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s (Elevated speed) at 06:20 UTC. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4)
threshold reached at 17:59 UTC Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 02:59 UTC Total IMF reached 16 nT at 08:24 UTC
​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a CME on Aug. 5th (0230 UT). Sensors at the Canberra Magnetic Observatory in Australia measured a jolt of 22 nT to Earth's magnetic field. After such an impact there is a chance the storm will escalate to category G1 SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687684604029788161

Aurora Oval Bz: -15.26 nT South
​

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on August 05

▪︎ Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (kp 6 )
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 415.6 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 12.95 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 20.15 nT at 04:40 UTC
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C9 at 02:54 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 122 (SN 124 August 04)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

X-FLARE

Active Region 3386 has produced an X1.6 class flare which registered threshold at 22:21 UTC on August 05. The flare caused a Strong R3 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​

Indications are that a CME will be associated. More

X-FLARE! Active sunspot AR3386 erupted again on Aug. 5th (2221 UT), producing a long-duration X1.6-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:​

​

The flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere. This, in turn, caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal and other propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.​

A CME is almost certainly emerging from the blast site. It won't be heading directly for Earth, but its flank might deliver a glancing blow on Aug. 8th or 9th, adding its energy to that of another CME already en route.​

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

As we have seen in other occasions, once an active region is in the west about to leave the solar disk it produces significant flares. This is what happened in the past few days with AR3380 which before leaving the solar disk produced a series of M-class flares, the largest event being an M3.6 on August 01 when it was in southwest (S10W53)​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 06_2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

Active Region 3386 has produced a X1.6 class flare which registered threshold at 22:21 UTC on August 05. The flare caused a Strong R3 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687999387845185536

Other significant flares

● M1.6 at 07:18 UTC from AR3386 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over India
● M2.1 at 09:36 UTC from AR3380 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North Africa

There are currently 8 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3386 AR3387, AR3388, AR3391 AR3392, AR3393, AR3394, AR3395

AR3380 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 121 (31 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3386 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class. This region will be leaving the solar disk in the next hours.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to strong storm levels for the past 24 hours. On August 05 a Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7) was reached around 03:00 UTC Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s (Elevated speed) at 10:17 UTC. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 02:30 UTC
​

CME SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: As predicted, a CME struck Earth during the early hours of Aug. 5th (0253 UT). Sensors at the Canberra Magnetic Observatory in Australia measured a jolt of 22 nT to our planet's magnetic field. The impact sparked a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm with auroras in the USA as far south as Arizona.​

​

"The aurora was not visible to the unaided eye," says David Blanchard, who took the picture outside Flagstaff, "but my camera picked it up in a 30-sec exposure as a band of pink just above the horizon."​

Additional sightings in Missouri, Colorado and the Carolinas confirm that photographic auroras spread to low latitudes. "Photographic auroras" are nearly invisible to the human eye but easy targets for cameras with nighttime exposure settings. This storm also produced bright naked-eye auroras at higher latitudes such as Minnesota, Washington and Michigan.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687786556080201728

ANOTHER CME IS COMING: A magnetic filament connecting two sunspots erupted this morning, Aug. 5th (~0500 UT), hurling a CME into space. NOAA models predict a glancing blow on Aug. 8th. The impact could spark G1-class geomagnetic storms with a chance of escalating to G2 or G3 because Earth's magnetosphere is already energized by a CME impact on Aug.05th SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 5.27 nT North


● Current Conditions at 03:20 UTC on August 06

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1 )
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 344 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.32 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 8.14 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 6.0 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: X1 at 22:21 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 121 (SN 122 August 05)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 07_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M5.4 event observed at 18:40 UTC on August 06 from AR3386 (N11W90) It caused a Moderate R2 radio blackout over North America

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688266773081075713

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3386 AR3387, AR3388, AR3391 AR3392, AR3394, AR3395

AR3393 is gone.

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 100 (28 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. AR3386 said so long with an M5.4 flare. All current regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On August 06 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s (Elevated speed) at 07:37 UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03:14 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): One and perhaps two CMEs could deliver glancing blows to Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 8th. Both left the sun on Aug. 5th--the first launched by an erupting magnetic filament, the second launched by an X1.6-class solar flare. A single hit is likely to cause a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. A double blow could escalate the storm to category G2 (Moderate) or G3 (Strong). SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.66 nT South
​

● Current Conditions at 02:40 UTC on August 07

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 394.5 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.88 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9.92 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 21:27 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 100 (SN 121 August 06)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

X-FLARE

Active Region 3386 on the far side has produced an X1.5 class flare at 20:46 UTC on August 07. The flare caused a Strong R3 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean. Due to the location behind the limb, it is possible that it could have been somewhat stronger than detected. Any associated CME will be directed away from Earth.





​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 08_2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an X1.5 event observed at 20:46 UTC on August 07 from AR3386

As has happened on other occasions, significant M or X clade flares occur when the sunspot is either on the eastern edge or about to exit the solar disk from the west.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688713067276992512

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688693353469431810

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688718777456693248

Other significant flares

● M2.4 at 04:41 UTC from AR3386 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over China
● M1.0 at 16:11 UTC from AR3387 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North America
● M1.0 at 16:26 UTC from AR3387 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North America
● M1.0 at 16:27 UTC from AR3387 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North America
● M1.0 at 19:51 UTC from AR3387 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

There are currently 8 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3387, AR3391 AR3392, AR3394, AR3395 and new regions AR3396, AR3397,
AR3398

AR3386, AR3388 are gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 101 (28 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. AR3386 said so long with an M5.4 flare. All current regions have stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On August 07 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s (Moderate speed) at 19:42 UTC. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 11:56 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.05 nT North

● Current Conditions at 05:250 UTC on August 08

▪︎ Geospace active (kp 4) threshold reached at 22:54 UTC on August 07
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 488 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 6.93 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.04 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 22:40 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 101 (SN 100 August 07)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 09_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 09:31 UTC on August 08 from Region 3387 (N18W89). It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Arabia Saudi
​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689109452153057281

There are currently 8 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3387, AR3391, AR3392, AR3394 AR3395, AR3396, AR3397, AR3398​

Total number of sunspots has increased to 115 (25 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. AR3386 said so long with an M5.4 flare. All current regions have stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On August 08 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s (Moderate speed) at 22:16 UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21:32 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.45 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on August 09

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 416.2 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 6.13 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.49 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.6 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 22:58 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 115 (SN 101 August 08)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Antony]

Interestingly that the scientists researched the model on a binary star systems...

Modified gravity: a new discovery in physics

Kyu-hyun Che, a professor of physics and astronomy at Sejong University in Seoul, has published a study that provides "irrefutable evidence" of the existence of modified gravity at a low acceleration limit. This discovery could be of great importance for astrophysics, cosmology and fundamental physics in general.

The study, published in the Astrophysical Journal, is based on observations made using the Gaia Space Telescope. Kyu-Hyun Che's team focused on studying wide binary systems - systems consisting of two stars located at a great distance from each other.

The study used a sample of 26,500 wide binary systems. Scientists have studied the gravitational interaction of stars, focusing on calculating the gravitational accelerations that stars experience depending on the distance between them and other characteristics.

The results of the study showed that when two stars rotate around each other with accelerations below one nanometer per second squared, they deviate from the standard model - the predicted values of Newton's universal law of gravity and Einstein's general theory of relativity. For accelerations below 0.1 nanometers per second squared, the observed acceleration turned out to be about 30-40 percent higher than predicted by the theories of Newton and Einstein.

However, at accelerations above 10 nanometers per second squared, the results of the study are in good agreement with the predictions of Newton-Einstein. This discovery raises many questions and is a mystery to scientists. It is also interesting that theoretical physicist Mordechai Milgrom from the Weizmann Institute in Israel predicted this "violation of the Newton-Einstein theory" 40 years ago.

Milgrom proposed a new theoretical framework called modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND), which is now known as Milgrom dynamics. Previously, this theory was considered an alternative and had no practical confirmation. However, new observations of wide binary systems have shown not only a violation of the laws of Newtonian dynamics, but also the manifestation of the effect of the external field of modified gravity, which corresponds to the MOND structure.

Researchers claim that we may be witnessing a new revolution in physics. However, independent analysis is required to confirm these results. If the detected anomaly is confirmed as a factor violating the laws of Newtonian dynamics, this could be of great importance for our understanding of gravity and the universe as a whole.

"The unprecedented accuracy of the Gaia satellite, the large and carefully selected sample that Che used, and his detailed analysis make the results reliable enough to qualify as a discovery," says Xavier Hernandez, professor at UNAM University in Mexico.

Модифицированная гравитация: новое открытие в физике

Профессор физики и астрономии Кю-Хюн Че из Университета Седжонг в Сеуле опубликовал исследование, которое представляет "неопровержимые доказательства" существования модифицированной гравитации при низком пределе ускорения.

earth-chronicles.ru

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 10_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07:01 UTC on August 09 from Region 3387 (N18W0)

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3391, AR3392, AR3394 AR3395, AR3397, AR3398 and new region AR3399


AR3387 and AR3396 are gone.

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 103 (33 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3394 (S24W16 size 270MH) and AR3395 (N13W03 size 110MH) have developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On August 09 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s (Elevated speed) at 00:24 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08:03 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.42 nT South


● Current Conditions at 03:40 UTC on August 10

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 364 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.22 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.98 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.6 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 02:42 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 103 (SN 115 August 09)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

From spaceweather.com:

"

THE GREAT SOLAR STORM OF MARCH 1940:

This story is shocking. On March 24, 1940, a solar storm hit Earth so hard it made copper wires in the United States crackle with 800 volts of electricity. A New York Times headline declared that a "sunspot tornado" had arrived, playing havoc with any signal that had to travel through metal wires.​

​

"For a few hours it completely disrupted all long-distance communication," wrote astronomer Seth B. Nicholson in a recap of the event for the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. Radio announcers seemed to be "talking a language no one could understand." The New York Times reported that more than a million telephone and teletype messages had been garbled: "Veteran electrical engineers unhesitatingly pronounced it the worst thing of its kind within their memory."


So why have you never heard of this storm? Even in 1940 it was fairly quickly forgotten. World War II was underway in Europe, and the USA was on the verge of joining. People had other things on their minds.


Modern researchers, however, are paying attention. A team led by Jeffrey Love of the USGS Geomagnetism Program just published a new study of the event in the research journal Space Weather. Their work confirms that it was no ordinary solar storm.


"It was unusually violent," says Love. "There were very rapid changes in Earth's magnetic field, and this induced big voltages in long metal wires."


Love and colleagues learned about the voltages from old engineering reports. In 1940, the United States was cross-crossed by copper wires hundreds to thousands of miles long. They were not for power distribution; electrical systems were still mostly regional. Instead the wires were used for communications such as telephone calls and telegrams. When the "sunspot tornado" hit Earth, electricity began to move through the system. Technicians jotted down some of the voltages they saw--and the numbers were incredible.

Above: Solar storm voltages in March 1940 (red) vs. the Quebec Blackout of March 1989 (blue)​

"Records show 400 V in Minnesota, 750 V in Missouri, and more than 800 V in Massachusetts," says Love. "These are 10 times greater than long-wire voltages recorded during the Great Quebec Blackout in March 1989."


What caused the high voltages? Love's team examined old magnetogram records from the date of the storm and found evidence that two coronal mass ejections CMEs hit Earth only 1.82 hours apart. The double blow rattled Earth's magnetic field in a complicated way most single CMEs do not.


"This could be a harbinger of things to come," says Love. Modern studies show that as many as 5 CMEs leave the sun every day during Solar Maximum. With Solar Cycle 25 underway and intensifying, a double hit could definitely happen again.


A similar storm today might not significantly impact communications; we live in the wireless age of cell phones. Electricity is another matter. Modern power systems depend on long wires to shuttle electricity across the country. A repeat of 1940 could interfere with their operations. Love notes that the 1940 voltages exceed NERC power-grid industry benchmarks for 100-year storms. As a result, some modern power grids might not be ready to handle the shock of another 1940 event.


Read Love's original research here: here.

"

---

"The March 1940 Superstorm: Geoelectromagnetic Hazards and Impacts on American Communication and Power Systems​

Abstract:

An analysis is made of geophysical records of the 24 March 1940, magnetic storm and related reports of interference on long-line communication and power systems across the contiguous United States and, to a lesser extent, Canada. Most long-line system interference occurred during local daytime, after the second of two storm sudden commencements and during the early part of the storm's main phase. The high degree of system interference experienced during this storm is inferred to have been due to unusually large-amplitude and unusually rapid geomagnetic field variation, possibly driven by interacting interplanetary coronal-mass ejections. Geomagnetic field variation, in turn, induced geoelectric fields in the electrically conducting solid Earth, establishing large potential differences (voltages) between grounding points at communication depots and transformer substations connected by long transmission lines. It is shown that March 1940 storm-time communication- and power-system interference was primarily experienced over regions of high electromagnetic surface impedance, mainly in the upper Midwest and eastern United States. Potential differences measured on several grounded long lines during the storm exceeded 1-min resolution voltages that would have been induced by the March 1989 storm. In some places, voltages exceeded American electric-power-industry benchmarks. It is concluded that the March 1940 magnetic storm was unusually effective at inducing geoelectric fields. Although modern communication systems are now much less dependent on long electrically conducting transmission lines, modern electric-power-transmission systems are more dependent on such lines, and they, thus, might experience interference with the future occurrence of a storm as effective as that of March 1940."

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 11_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7.6 event observed at 22:21 UTC on August 10 from Region 3398 (S21W85)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689645043030929410

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689340267156090882

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3391, AR3392, AR3394, AR3395 AR3397, AR3398, AR3399

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 83 (25 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3395 (N13W19 size 130MH) has grown and continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689615638392631296

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On August 10 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s (Elevated speed) at 08:00 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16:57 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.35 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on August 11

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 434 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 6.26 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.93 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.9 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C7 at 22:21 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 83 (SN 103 August 10)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT AUGUST 12_2023

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: This website, Spaceweather.com, began in 1997 with the first stirrings of Solar Cycle 23 (SC23). The timing was right. In the years that followed, SC23 produced the strongest solar flare of the Space Age (X45), the infamous Halloween Storms of 2003, and multiple episodes of Northern Lights as far south as Texas and California. Could it happen again? New Solar Cycle 25 is heading in the same direction:​

​

This summer, sunspot counts have hit their highest values in more than 20 years, sharply exceeding official forecasts and putting them squarely in the ballpark of Solar Cycle 23. It's just like old times.​

With Solar Max not expected for another year (or more), sunspot counts should continue to increase, further widening the gap between Solar Cycle 25 and its historically weak predecessor Solar Cycle 24. If, indeed, Solar Cycle 25 does leapfrog Solar Cycle 24 and land in the vicinity of Solar Cycle 23, we can expect at least 3 to 5 years of high solar activity in the years ahead.​

SpaceWeather Time Machine

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8.2 event observed at 06:45 UTC on August 11 from Region 3395 (N13W31)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1690048981286653952

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689983753148321792

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3391, AR3394, AR3395 AR3397, AR3399 and new regions AR3400, AR3401

AR3392 and AR3398 are gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 105 (35 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3395 (N13W31 size 130MH) continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On August 11 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 22:21 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16:53 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.83 nT North

​

● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on August 12

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 441 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0.82 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.9 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.5 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 23:55 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 105 (SN 83 August 11)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
..
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

​

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

Here's a interesting video, to get a visual impression of sun's activity:

"The video starts in January 2020 and runs through April 2023.
Note the steadily increasing number of active regions (associated with sunspots)
Note that they start at higher latitudes and start t migrate towards the equator."