Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 18_2023

LONG DURATION FLARE. Solar activity has been at moderate levels. The largest solar event of the period was a M5.7 event observed at 00:06 UTC on July 18 from AR3363 (S22W75) it caused a Moderate R1 radio blackout over North Pacific Ocean
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A MAJOR EXPLOSION ON THE SUN (UPDATED): We've been waiting for this. Big sunspot AR3363 just produced a major M6-class explosion (0006 UT on July 18th). NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the long-duration event:​
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Although this explosion was not X-class, it was more powerful than many X-flares would be. Why? Because it lasted so long. The flare's X-ray output was above M5 for more than an hour. It had plenty of time to lift a substantial CME out of the sun's atmosphere.​
Indeed, SOHO coronagraphs have detected a bright CME emerging at high speed from the blast site: movie. There are not yet enough data to determine if it has an Earth-directed component.​

There are currently 8 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3363, AR3371, AR3372, AR3373, AR3374 and new regions AR3375,
AR3376, AR3377

Total number of sunspots has increased to 129 (79 of these a re grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 20% chance for X flares.

●AR3363 (S22W75 size 700 MH) continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares however it will be leaving the solar disk in a few hours.

●AR3372 (N23E00 size 700 MH) has lost its delta component however it harbors energy for M-class flares.

●AR3373 (N07E25 size 450 MH) is growing and it has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.On July 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 615.5 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 17:38 UTC Total IMF reached 14 nT at 00:00 UTC (strong solar magnetic field) Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 23:58 UTC

▪︎ Minor S1 Solar Radiation Storm Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions. (2023-07-18. 01 :38 UTC)​
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▪︎ Moderate S2 Solar Radiation Storm Minor Infrequent effects on HF radio through polar regions and satellite operations (2023-07-18. 02 :38 UTC)​
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Aurora Oval Bz: -1.25 nT South
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 03:40 UTC on July 18

▪︎ Geomagnetic storm G1 in progress (kp 5)
Earth's magnetic field continues to reverberate from a CME impact two days ago.
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 531.1 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 9.15 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.39 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.0 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M5 at 00:06 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 129 (SN 99 July 17)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
...
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PROTON EVENT
LONG DURATION FLARE. Solar activity has been at moderate levels. The largest solar event of the period was a M5.7 event observed at 00:06 UTC on July 18 from AR3363 (S22W75) it caused a Moderate R1 radio blackout over North Pacific Ocean

A Solar proton event occurs when protons emitted by the Sun become accelerated to very high energies during a solar flare accompanied by a coronal mass ejection or in interplanetary space by the shocks associated with coronal mass ejections. Protons are finally guided by the interplanetary magnetic field lines.

Energetic proton storms can electrically charge spacecraft to levels that can damage electronic components. Solid state memory can be altered.

Energetic solar protons are a significant radiation hazard to spacecraft and astronauts. They can cause spacecraft to lose their orientation. Flashes and streaks of light occur when energetic protons strike the sensitive optical electronics in spacecraft and can also destroy the efficiency of the solar panels. Significant proton radiation exposure can be experienced by astronauts who are outside a protective shield in the space.



 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 19_2023

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASES. Solar activity has been at high levels. The largest solar event of the period was a M5.7 event observed at 00:06 UTC on July 18 from AR3363 (S22W75) This one was already reported however, the same region, already on the far side of the sun, has produced other class M flares in the last 24 hours.​

▪︎M1.5 at 06:56 UTC
▪︎M1.3 at 19:48 UTC

On the other hand, AR3376 (N23E29 size 180MH) has produced 2 M-class flares. At the moment there is no data on the location on Earth where the flashes impacted and which probably generated minor radio blackouts.​

▪︎M1.4 at 20:16 UTC
▪︎M2.1 at 20:35 UTC
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There are currently 8 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3363, AR3371, AR3372, AR3373, AR3374, AR3375, AR3376, AR3377
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Total number of sunspots has increased to 149 (62 of these a re grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 20% chance for X flares.

●AR3372 (N24E10 size 560 MH) is decaying but continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

●AR3373 (N07E12 size 500 MH) is growing and it has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

●AR3376 (N23E28 size 180MH) has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.On July 18 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545.2 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 00:52 UTC Total IMF reached 6.9 nT at 00:25 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.77 nT North
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on July 19

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 483.1 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 7.22 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.37 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.7 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C8 at 22:44 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 149 (SN 129 July 18)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
...
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 20_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels. The largest solar event of the period was a M3.7 event observed at 17:25 UTC on July 19 from AR3363 (S21W0*) already in the far side. Most of it was eclipse by the solar limb and it was probably a much bigger, high M or low X flare however It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North America​
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There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3371, AR3372, AR3373, AR3374 AR3375, AR3376, AR3377 and new regions
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AR3363 is gone, AR3378 has grown rapidly

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 142 (61 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. With the exception of AR3373, all other regions have stable magnetic fields.​

●AR3373 (N08W02 size 550MH) is growing and continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.On July 18 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s (Elevated speed) at 00:47 UTC Total IMF reached 5.8 nT at 00:00 UTC
A CME IS COMING: NOAA models confirm that a CME will graze Earth's magnetic field on July 20th. It came from yesterday's potent M6-class eruption in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR3363. G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms are likely with a slight chance of escalating to G3.
SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.12 nT North
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 02:10 UTC on July 20

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 380.2 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.58 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.83 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.7 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 23:17 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 142 (SN 149 July 19)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
...
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 21_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 19:49 UTC on July 20 from Region 3373 (N08W15).​

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3372, AR3373, AR3374, AR3376, AR3377, AR3378, AR3379
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AR3371, AR3375 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 141 (61 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. With the exception of AR3372 and AR3373 all other regions have stable magnetic fields.

● AR3372 (N15W37 size 380MH) has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. This active region will be leaving the solar disk this weekend.

●AR3373 (N08W16 size 520MH) continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.
RARE REVERSED-POLARITY SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3376 is breaking the law: Hale’s Law. Its magnetic polarity is reversed compared to other sunspots in the sun’s northern hemisphere:​
According to Hale’s Law, Solar Cycle 25 sunspots in the sun’s northern hemisphere should have a -/+ polarity (negative on the left, positive on the right). AR3376 is reversed; its polarity is +/-.​
Studies show that about 3% of all sunspots violate Hale’s Law. In most ways, reversed polarity sunspots are totally normal. They have about the same lifespan and size as ordinary sunspots. In one important way, however, they are different.​
According to a 1982 survey by Frances Tang of the Big Bear Solar Observatory, reversed polarity sunspots are more than twice as likely to develop unstable magnetic fields in which + and – are mixed together. Reversed polarity sunspots are therefore more likely to explode. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours.On July 20 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s (Elevated speed) at 17:50 UTC Total IMF reached 12 nT at 16:27 UTC Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 17:08 UTC​
CME IMPACT (THE FIRST OF TWO): A CME just hit Earth's magnetic field (July 20th at 1651 UT): data. This is the first of two CMEs forecasters have been tracking en route to Earth. The second should reach our planet tomorrow, July 21st. The combined effect of these two CMEs could cause G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms with high-latitude auroras especially after the second CME arrives. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.07 nT South
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● Current Conditions at 02:10 UTC on July 21

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 433.6 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 12.3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7.93 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.3 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 19:55 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 141 (SN 142 July 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
...
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 22_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 23:51 UTC on July 22 from Region 3379 (N16E63).​

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk:AR3372, AR3373, AR3374, AR3376, AR3377, AR3378, AR3379
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Total number of sunspots has decreased to 131 (62 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. With the exception of AR3373 all other regions have stable magnetic fields.​

●AR3373 (N08W30 size 550MH) is growing and has developed a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.On July 21 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s (Elevated speed) at 05:21 UTC Total IMF reached 11 nT at 20:26 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.72 nT North
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● Current Conditions at 04:10 UTC on July 22

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 417.1 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.4 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 8.51 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 1.4 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M3 at 03:37 UTC from AR3372 (N23W52 size 340MH) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Japan region
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▪︎ Sunspot number: 131 (SN 141 July 21)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
...
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 23_2023

X-ray Solar Flare: M3 at 03:37 UTC from AR3372 (N23W52 size 340MH) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Japan region

After the M3 flare at 03:37 solar activity returned to low levels. So the largest solar event that followed was a C9 flare observed at 04:16 UTC July 22 from Active Region 3373 (N07W40).

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3372, AR3373,AR3374, AR3376 AR3377, AR3378, AR3379
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Total number of sunspots has decreased to 121 (43 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.On July 22 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s (Elevated speed) at 17:28 UTC Total IMF reached 14 nT at 22:23 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.56 nT North
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● Current Conditions at 03:00 UTC on July 23

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 439.4 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.58 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.65 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 0.8 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 23:24 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 121 (SN 131 July 22)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
...
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 24_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 04:54 UTC on July 23 from Region 3373 (N09W57)​

There are currently 7 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3372, AR3373, AR3376,AR3377 AR3378, AR3379, and new region AR3380
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AR3374 is gone

QUIET SUNDAY: There are 6 big sunspot groups facing Earth. None of them is likely to produce an X-flare today. Over the weekend their magnetic fields have variously decayed and/or simplified, sharply reducing the odds of a strong solar flare. SpaceWeather.com
Total number of sunspots has decreased to 103 (47 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields with the exception of AR3379

●AR3379 (N16E21 size 280MH) has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.On July 23 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s (Elevated speed) at 19:44 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18:11 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -4.27 nT South
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● Current Conditions at 02:30 UTC on July 24

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 422.5 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 3.06 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.66 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 0.8 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C8 at 08:21 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 103 (SN 121 July 23)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
...
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 25_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 04:26 UTC on July 24 from Region 3372 (N24W91)​

There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3373, AR3376,AR3377 AR3378, AR3379, AR3380, and new regions AR3381, AR3382, AR3383
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Total number of sunspots has increased to 117 (40 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields with the exception of AR3373

●AR3373 (N08W67 size 240) recovered its gamma component in its magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.On July 24 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s (Elevated speed) at 21:24 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18:06 UTC​

A HALO CME IS COMING (UPDATED): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible during the early hours of July 27th when a faint halo CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled toward us on July 23rd (~1530 UT) by a complex eruption involving a C5-class solar flare in sunspot AR3376 and the liftoff of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.78 nT South
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on July 25

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 381 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.14 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -1.7 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 02:03 UTC it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean
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▪︎ Sunspot number: 117 (SN 103 July 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
...
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 25_2023

Screenshot 2023-07-25 at 09-38-45 Space Weather Australian Bureau of Meteorology.png
Screenshot 2023-07-25 at 09-41-08 Halo CME on Twitter.png

In the past 24 hours, nearly 32,000 lightning strikes have been recorded in France! Thunderstorms were strong from the southwest to the eastern borders. ( © @KeraunosObs)

A good refreshment this morning, it is between 0 and 1 degrees around 2800 m with some snowflakes mixed with the rain @destinationtpm


Screenshot 2023-07-25 at 09-46-59 TheEarthMaster on Twitter.png

Tuesday, Jul. 25, 2023
A HALO CME IS COMING (UPDATED): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible during the early hours of July 27th when a faint halo CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled toward us on July 23rd (~1530 UT) by a complex eruption involving a C5-class solar flare in sunspot AR3376 and the liftoff of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 26_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Two M-class were recorded from AR3376​
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 02:03 UTC it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean
● A M1.6 event was recorded at 21:16 UTC from AR3376 (N24W64) which caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North Pacific Ocean
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There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3373, AR3376, AR3377, AR3378 AR3379, AR3380, AR3381, AR3382, AR3383 and new region AR3384

Total number of sunspots has increased to 141 (37 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.On July 25 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s (Moderate speed) at 21:55 UTC. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 22:06 UTC
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4)
threshold reached at 22:33 UTC. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 23:59 UTC​

MYSTERY CME SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Unexpectedly, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 25th (2235 UT), sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm. It is unclear if this is the early arrival of a CME originally expected on July 27th or a completely different CME which was previously overlooked. Because of the uncertainty, a minor geomagnetic storm watch is still in effect for July 27th. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -9.53 nT South
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on July 26

▪︎ Geospace active (kp 4)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 492.4 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 1.36 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 12.58 nT

▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -1.7 % (Below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 00:40 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 141 (SN 117 July 25)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
...
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 26_2023


Continuing heavy rain

Screenshot 2023-07-26 at 11-48-21 神山亜哉 on Twitter.png
Kanoya area forecast M4.5 Hyuga-nada M4.4 Prediction error M0.1



Notice the higher atmospheric cooling within the Latitude and Longitude of Pic du Midi de Bigorre

Bonjour ,le pic du midi ouvre au public pour la journée. 26/07/2023 — 08:26
Screenshot 2023-07-26 at 07-50-11 Pic du midi L'incontournable des Pyrénées.png
 

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