Olivierlejardinier
Jedi Council Member
Noted yesterday, a surge in proton flux :
A MAJOR EXPLOSION ON THE SUN (UPDATED): We've been waiting for this. Big sunspot AR3363 just produced a major M6-class explosion (0006 UT on July 18th). NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the long-duration event:
Although this explosion was not X-class, it was more powerful than many X-flares would be. Why? Because it lasted so long. The flare's X-ray output was above M5 for more than an hour. It had plenty of time to lift a substantial CME out of the sun's atmosphere.
Indeed, SOHO coronagraphs have detected a bright CME emerging at high speed from the blast site: movie. There are not yet enough data to determine if it has an Earth-directed component.
LONG DURATION FLARE. Solar activity has been at moderate levels. The largest solar event of the period was a M5.7 event observed at 00:06 UTC on July 18 from AR3363 (S22W75) it caused a Moderate R1 radio blackout over North Pacific Ocean
A CME IS COMING: NOAA models confirm that a CME will graze Earth's magnetic field on July 20th. It came from yesterday's potent M6-class eruption in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR3363. G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms are likely with a slight chance of escalating to G3.
SpaceWeather.com
RARE REVERSED-POLARITY SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3376 is breaking the law: Hale’s Law. Its magnetic polarity is reversed compared to other sunspots in the sun’s northern hemisphere:
According to Hale’s Law, Solar Cycle 25 sunspots in the sun’s northern hemisphere should have a -/+ polarity (negative on the left, positive on the right). AR3376 is reversed; its polarity is +/-.
Studies show that about 3% of all sunspots violate Hale’s Law. In most ways, reversed polarity sunspots are totally normal. They have about the same lifespan and size as ordinary sunspots. In one important way, however, they are different.
According to a 1982 survey by Frances Tang of the Big Bear Solar Observatory, reversed polarity sunspots are more than twice as likely to develop unstable magnetic fields in which + and – are mixed together. Reversed polarity sunspots are therefore more likely to explode. SpaceWeather.com
CME IMPACT (THE FIRST OF TWO): A CME just hit Earth's magnetic field (July 20th at 1651 UT): data. This is the first of two CMEs forecasters have been tracking en route to Earth. The second should reach our planet tomorrow, July 21st. The combined effect of these two CMEs could cause G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms with high-latitude auroras especially after the second CME arrives. SpaceWeather.com
X-ray Solar Flare: M3 at 03:37 UTC from AR3372 (N23W52 size 340MH) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Japan region
QUIET SUNDAY: There are 6 big sunspot groups facing Earth. None of them is likely to produce an X-flare today. Over the weekend their magnetic fields have variously decayed and/or simplified, sharply reducing the odds of a strong solar flare. SpaceWeather.com
A HALO CME IS COMING (UPDATED): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible during the early hours of July 27th when a faint halo CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled toward us on July 23rd (~1530 UT) by a complex eruption involving a C5-class solar flare in sunspot AR3376 and the liftoff of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. SpaceWeather.com
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 25_2023
● A M1.6 event was recorded at 21:16 UTC from AR3376 (N24W64) which caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North Pacific Ocean▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 02:03 UTC it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean
MYSTERY CME SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Unexpectedly, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 25th (2235 UT), sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm. It is unclear if this is the early arrival of a CME originally expected on July 27th or a completely different CME which was previously overlooked. Because of the uncertainty, a minor geomagnetic storm watch is still in effect for July 27th. SpaceWeather.com
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JULY 26_2023