Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 03_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 0850 UTC from Region 3697 (S18E07). The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Middle East region​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797438070587118064

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 186 of which 98 of them are grouped into 10 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3690	1	10 a
AR3691	18	180 By
AR3693	2	10 B
AR3695	11	30 B
AR3697	33	410 Byd
AR3698	11	160 B
AR3699	8	70 B
AR3700	8	180 B
AR3701	5	40 B
AR3702	1	50 a

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

The current magnetic field of AR3691 harbors energy for M-class flares while AR3697 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta that harbors energy for X-class flares.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 35% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On June 01, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 07:27 UTC. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16:17 UTC.​

● Current Conditions at 04:33 UTC on June 03

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.9 nT South

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp2 (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 299 km/s pointing south with a negative Bz value of -2.9 nT which offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): NOAA forecasters say that a G1-class geomagnetic storm is possible on June 4th when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled into space on June 1st by a complex X1-M7 double solar flare. Much confusion has attended this forecast because there were actually two CMEs at the same time--one toward Earth and one away from Earth. Analysts unraveled the two storm clouds to produce a likely model of the Earth-directed CME's trajectory. SpaceWeather.com

SpaceWeatherlive.com on X

Yesterday's asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) turns out to be a hard to catch curveball!

After a lot of discussion the general consensus is that the large asymmetrical halo coronal mass ejection likely came from an energetic far side event that occurred just before the X1/M7 flare combination. It is likely a far side CME and not earth-directed.

However, based on SDO imagery we do see some coronal dimming and a possible release of ejecta which was triggered by the M7 event. Did this eruption launch a coronal mass ejection? Possibly. Is it earth-directed? Hard to tell.

We turn to SEEDS where this SOHO/LASCO animation comes from. At the 20:24 UTC frame it starts to track what we believe is the M7 flare ejecta. It is so hard to tell due to the larger far side halo but it looks like this ejecta is slow and rather lackluster, perhaps not even earth-directed.

All in all, hard to say how much was released and its exact trajectory but we expect little to no impact at Earth unfortunately. Sunspot region 3697 is however in a prime earth-facing position right now so should it manage to produce an eruptive solar flare, any ejecta from it will likely have an earth-directed component.

On June 03 Solar activity is likely to be moderate while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 299 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 4.5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C8 0030 UT Jun03
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 186 (SN 194 June 02)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Beau]

Puma, while we appreciate you tracking the daily sun activity, the posting of tweets and large images causes many browsers to crash and/or load very slowly. It would be better if you used your own Twitter account for such tracking, or even creating a social media account dedicated to sun activity. See this thread for more explanation about why we are trying to curb this kind of forum behavior.

 

[Puma]

Puma, while we appreciate you tracking the daily sun activity, the posting of tweets and large images causes many browsers to crash and/or load very slowly. It would be better if you used your own Twitter account for such tracking, or even creating a social media account dedicated to sun activity. See this thread for more explanation about why we are trying to curb this kind of forum behavior.

OK I will stop the reports to publish them in X

Thank you !!

 

[Wandering Star]

OK I will stop the reports to publish them in X

Thank you !!

I will miss your articles.

We'll have to look at the space weather page and discuss the space summit incidents with... well, with no one.

Thank you.

 

[Puma]

I will miss your articles.

Thank you for reading !!

 

[Vajra2]

Disappointing. I have to say also that your regular posts of available data on both geophysical and astrophysical matters were on my list every day...

 

[washable_orbit]

I can see how the high load of images can be considered a hindrance for some. I too look forward to these updates. Maybe as a way to compensate, @Puma can limit the posts to more ‘notable’ events? Like when we are experiencing high levels of solar activity, for example.

Edit: Would hiding the images behind a spoiler help?

 

[Beau]

I can see how the high load of images can be considered a hindrance for some. I too look forward to these updates. Maybe as a way to compensate, @Puma can limit the posts to more ‘notable’ events? Like when we are experiencing high levels of solar activity, for example.

Yeah, certainly more notable events could be discussed. One of the issues with the way this thread has progressed is the lack of discussion.

 

[meadow_wind]

Well, I'm sure Puma will find a decent alternative to publish the data where forum members will be able to follow and/or comment.

@Puma, how about a free "Blog" type webpage? These usually look a bit like here and can even allow comments on them. You could still publish the first lines here while avoiding the large images, and just link your Blog URL?

And if ever there are some unusual strong events, would the admin be ok with some images?

 

[Alejo]

Well, I'm sure Puma will find a decent alternative to publish the data where forum members will be able to follow and/or comment.

@Puma, how about a free "Blog" type webpage? These usually look a bit like here and can even allow comments on them. You could still publish the first lines here while avoiding the large images, and just link your Blog URL?

And if ever there are some unusual strong events, would the admin be ok with some images?

I was going to say that... I think it would be a lot more beneficial for Puma, and everyone is perhaps he presented the information in his own words instead of simply pasting it from somewhere else... so that we can see Puma behind the post and not him simply being a vehicle of delivery, if that makes sense.

I think it would be super interesting if we got a post here from him, saying "I've been following this daily and just noticed this pattern that looks interesting..." it would generate interest and discussion, if we simply get the copy paste, which I know requires work.. then we won't ever see him behind the information, and I'd be more interested in seeing what he has to say than what the reports are reporting.

 

[washable_orbit]

Yeah, certainly more notable events could be discussed. One of the issues with the way this thread has progressed is the lack of discussion.

Per the thread you linked:

Some threads are not for discussion, but for collecting data (such as the Earth Changes thread) or humor.

I think this applies here to some extent. Not everything requires a discussion. I really enjoyed what they had going on here — direct and to the point; and when something notable happened, then we would all chime in. Of course, as discussed above, it could be streamlined.

I know you replied to my post before I had the chance to edit it, but do you know if hiding images behind spoilers would help at all?

Anyway, some great advise and ideas above! Although it does sound like a full time job at this point and Puma is very active and involved in many threads already, so this is ultimately up to him.

Personally, I know for sure I won’t be going anywhere else. Sometimes the last thing I want to do is read a bunch of filler words and people’s ‘flavor’ and personality. But I love that we are all so different. I guess I’ll find out about the catastrophic solar flair when it hits, lol.

 

[Liliea]

Solar wind: On June 2 two large flares unexpectedly occurred on the Sun synchronously (with an accuracy of about 5-10 minutes) , one of which headed towards Earth and is still moving towards us, and the second, created by a flare from the antipodes, now flies in the opposite direction. to meet Venus, (above you can read Puma). The video from space is a superposition of two events projected on the picture plane. The plasma arrives at 18 hours Europa time.

Specialists from the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the ISTP SB RAS still adhere to the point of view that there was only one ejection and is moving towards the Earth. The arrival of solar plasma to the Earth , based on the current understanding of what happened on the Sun on the night of June 1 to 2, is expected on Tuesday at about 19 hours Moscow time, and may be accompanied by weak magnetic storms of class G1.

https://xras.ru/info/images/20240602_full.gif

Âñïûøêè íà Ñîëíöå 2 è 3 èþíÿ 2024 ãîäà

Èíôîðìàöèÿ î âñïûøå÷íîé àêòèâíîñòè Ñîëíöà 2 è 3 èþíÿ 2024 ãîäà. Ãðàôèê ðåíòãåíîâñêîãî èçëó÷åíèÿ Ñîëíöà çà ýòîò ïåðèîä.

xras.ru

Так в какÑÑ ÑÑоÑÐ¾Ð½Ñ Ð´ÑÐµÑ ÑолнеÑнÑй веÑеÑ?

СÑеди ÑÑÑнÑÑ, наблÑдаÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð·Ð° пÑоÑеÑÑами на СолнÑе, ÑазгоÑелÑÑ ÑÐ¿Ð¾Ñ Ð¾ Ñом,...

www.meteovesti.ru

 

[Pat]

I really enjoy your threads @Puma because of the researches you do And compile together. I always look forward to them. They all require lots of your time, I am sure. I learned so much because of explanations you added when asked. Thank you again and look forward to reading you in predictions, earthquakes, Mexico... etc.

 

[Puma]

I think this applies here to some extent. Not everything requires a discussion

Thank you for reading

More than anything with the reports (rather than an opinion) I intended to give an answer to the questions of the solar phenomena by giving a context, i.e. where, how and when the phenomena happened and to broaden the knowledge regarding the subject. These data are there, they are measurable so it only gives room for discussion when you know what you are talking about.

I remember recently there was a thread in the forum where it was announced that a part of the sun had disappeared or something like that. When you know why the phenomenon happened and what it is about it is difficult to fall into sensationalism like those that are propagated on YouTube where every week the Sun is about to annihilate us.

Finally, yes, images are important, they are not there for decoration since they illustrate where the phenomenon is happening and why or why not it can affect us. From my point of view, there have to be images, now, I don't have a PC or laptop, I do everything from my cell phone, so, sorry but I was not aware that the images I posted were of large size.

I can recommend you to follow the blog of Dr. Alex Young who also daily updates the information in a very concise way.

| EarthSky

earthsky.org

Thank you all!

 

[Possibility of Being]

Not everything requires a discussion.

It's not so much a discussion problem, though discussion never hurts, it's mostly a problem with loading, at least for some (many?) of us. It CAN be done differently. Smaller pictures, tweets' content copied, pasted and hyperlinked, etc. And then, for major events, we can afford the format used so far. How does it sound?