Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 16/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 15/0523Z from Region 3213 (N28W0)

A SOLAR EXPLOSION OF INTEREST: A magnetic filament loosely connected to sunspot AR3226 erupted during the early hours of Feb. 15th. NOAA forecasters say the resulting CME is "very likely to hit Earth." SpaceWeather.com

Partial halo CME observed early on Wednesday will possibly pass close to Earth by Feb. 18th. Enhanced geomagnetic activity will be possible at higher latitudes. This was the result of a filament eruption near center disk. https://t.co/aqK4Q6XdAY pic.twitter.com/yRsXhNayLo

— SolarHam (@SolarHam) February 15, 2023

NOAA/SWPC have updated their CME forecast model to predict a stronger than anticipated passage past Earth by late on February 17th and into the 18th. A moderate (G2) storm watch was officially added beginning on Friday. Aurora sky watchers should be alert this weekend. pic.twitter.com/USYsAS3G5j

— SolarHam (@SolarHam) February 16, 2023

There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3214, AR3216 AR3217, AR3219, AR3220, AR3221, AR3224, AR3225, AR3226, AR3227, AR3228

AR3213, AR3218 are gone

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 140 (42 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

NOAA reduces its estimate of M- and X-class solar flares because AR3213 has left the solar disk. On the other hand, AR3226 (N11E07) has modified its magnetic complexity to beta-delta that harbors energy for M-class solar flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 348 km/s at 03:57 UTC on February 15 Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 08:25 UTC Maximum planetary index Kp5

CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH A CME: A coronal mass ejection (CME) passed close to Earth on Feb. 15th. It wasn't a direct hit. Nevertheless, its arrival triggered a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with auroras in the USA as far south as Montana

The CME (movie) was hurled into space by an erupting magnetic filament (movie) in the sun's northern hemisphere on Feb. 11th. It took 4 days to get here and was somewhat off-target--hence the relatively minor storm.

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625945145454522369

● Current Conditions at 06:30 UTC on February 16

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 392.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.7 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.4% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 00:32 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 140 (SN 206 Feb 15)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 17/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 00:32 UTC on February 16 from Region 3229 (N30E70) it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Oceania.


There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3216 AR3217, AR3219, AR3220, AR3225, AR3226, and new region AR3229

AR3214, AR3221, AR3224, AR3227 and AR3228 are gone

LARGE SUNSPOT COMING OVER NE LIMB. It is possibly the return of sunspot region AR3201. It has already produced some flaring. pic.twitter.com/rstgXpksaQ

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) February 16, 2023

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 101 (31 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

NOAA reduces its estimate of M- and X-class solar flares because all regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached: 06:27 UTC. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold Reached: 07:00 UTC (first period) Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold threshold reached at 17:59 UTC (second period) Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 20:21 UTC on February 16 Maximum planetary index Kp5

A CME IS COMING: Yesterday, Feb. 15th, a magnetic filament straddling the sun's equator erupted and hurled a partial halo CME toward Earth. Earth is the yellow dot in this NASA model of the approaching CME:​

​

A similar NOAA model agrees: The CME should arrive during the late hours of Feb. 17th. First contact is expected to produce a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm, intensifying to moderate G2-class storming on Feb. 18th. During such storms, auroras can spill into the United States as far south as, e.g., New York and Idaho (55 deg. geomagnetic latitude).SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval

"Hmm... I wonder why the ground is so green?"
*pans camera*
😯 pic.twitter.com/4NTciRVEr5

— Vincent Ledvina (@Vincent_Ledvina) February 17, 2023

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on February 17

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 496.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.09 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.5% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 22:07 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 101 (SN 149 Feb 16)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

X-FLARE

A X2.2 solar flare was observed at 20:16 UTC on February 17 from AR3229 it produced a Strong R3 radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean. There is a CME associated.

STRONG X2-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: New sunspot AR3229 erupted on Feb. 17th (2016 UT), producing a strong X2-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet pulse:


Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas: map. Mariners, aviators and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal and other unusual propagation efftects at frequencies below 30 MHz for more than an hour after the flare.

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

www.spaceweather.com

First Look at the coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by the X2.2 solar flare courtesy of STEREO Ahead. Although hard to tell in this image, the eruption is full halo and does appear to have an Earth directed component. Stay tuned for Earth facing LASCO imagery. pic.twitter.com/CPoir6XBBy

— SolarHam (@SolarHam) February 17, 2023

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 18/2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 2016 UTC from emerging sunspot region 3229 (see previous post) SC25 has produced 14 X flares compared to just 9 by the same stage of SC24.

Awesome X2.2 class #SolarFlare on the limb of the Sun just now. Looks like it was eruptive, with a beautiful system of flare ribbons too! I look forward to seeing what other data comes in of this flare. #spaceweather pic.twitter.com/ZaQlDYj8SI

— Dr. Ryan French (@RyanJFrench) February 17, 2023

https://twitter.com/x/status/1626771477419663360

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3216 AR3217, AR3219, AR3220, AR3225, AR3226, AR3229

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 86 (29 of these are grouped into 7 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. NOAA increases its estimateof M- and X-class solar flares because AR3229 (N30E56) has grown in size and sunspots number. This region has already produced M a X-class solar flares.


● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 03:01 UTC on February 17 Maximum planetary index Kp3

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (UPDATED): Photographers, warm up your cameras. A CME is heading for Earth, and it could spark a good display of auroras when it arrives later today or tomorrow. NASA's computer model of the CME suggests it will reach Earth on Feb. 17th at 1800 UT. (Update: This time has passed with no CME yet.) First contact is expected to produce a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm, intensifying to moderate G2-class storming on Feb. 18th. During such storms, auroras can spill into the United States as far south as New York and Idaho. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1626673318819684352

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on February 18

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 447.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 5.11 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -2.0% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M6 at 21:19 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 86 (SN 101 Feb 17)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

WORLDWIDE EARTHQUAKE REPORT FEBRUARY 19/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 12:00 UTC on February 18 from Region 3226 (N10W33).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1626919582240841728

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3216 AR3217, AR3220, AR3225, AR3226, AR3229 and new region AR3230, AR3219 is gone

The total number of sunspots has increased to 109 (39 of these are grouped into 7 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares. AR3229 (N26E45) has grown in magnetic complexity to beta-delta that poses a threat for strong X-class solar flares.This region has already produced M a X-class solar flares.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1626933269500395521

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 23:48 UTC on February 17 Maximum planetary index Kp2

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627082972150263811

● Current Conditions at 05:50 UTC on February 19

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 373.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 3.29 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.6% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C7 at 18:36 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 109 (SN 85 Feb 18)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 20/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 08:17 UTC on February 19 from Region 3226 (N10W47).

Filament eruption with a CME associated, possibly Earth directed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627368982536650752

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627469382665355264

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627303324176289793

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3217, AR3220, AR3225, AR3226, AR3229, AR3230, and new region AR3231, AR3216 is gone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627483265287290880

The total number of sunspots has increased to 112 (42 of these are grouped into 7 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.AR3229 (N26E18) has grown in sunspots number and maintains a magnetic complexity to beta-delta that poses a threat for strong X-class solar flares.


● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 14:54 UTC on February 19 Maximum planetary index Kp3

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627388604736499713

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on February 20

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 387.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 3.38 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.5% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 00:07 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 112 (SN 109 Feb 19)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 21/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4.3 event observed at 14:58 UTC from Region 3234 (N24E76) it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627738268367290368

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627801746691981313

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3217, AR3220, AR3226, AR3229, AR3230, AR3231, and new regions AR3232, AR3233, AR3234
AR3225 is gone.


The total number of sunspots has increased to 135 (45 of these are grouped into 9 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.AR3229 (N26E18) maintains beta-delta magnetic complexity that poses a threat for strong X-class solar flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 13:01 UTC on February 20 Maximum planetary index Kp3

WEAK IMPACT: A CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 20th at 10:39 UTC. The impact was weak and did not cause a geomagnetic storm. If this was the CME from Friday's X2.2 flare (the jury's still out) then NOAA's forecast of a weak glancing blow was correct, and the geomagnetic storm watch can be cancelled. SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627621927677198336

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627763082997932032

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on February 21

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 396.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.02 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.2% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C9 at 04:44 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 135 (SN 112 Feb 20)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 22/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 20:17 UTC from Region 3234 (N24E60) it produced a Modetate R2 Radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628130744332652559

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628146776397033472

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628059795755343872

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: , AR3220, AR3226, AR3229, AR3230, AR3231, and new regions , AR3233, AR3234
AR3217 and AR3232 are gone.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 124 (36 of these are grouped into 7 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.AR3229 (N24E06) maintains beta-delta magnetic complexity that poses a threat for strong X-class solar flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached: 10:28 UTC solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 19:03 UTC on February 21 Maximum planetary index Kp4

CME FAILS TO SPARK GEOMAGNETIC STORM: As predicted, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 20th. However, the impact was weak and it did not cause a geomagnetic storm. The CME came from the powerful X2.2-flare of Feb. 17th. The bulk of the CME missed Earth, which is why its glancing impact was so ineffective. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 03:30 UTC on February 22

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 418.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.08 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -2.9% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C8 at 21:51 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 124 (SN 135 Feb 21)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 23/2022

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 1350 UTC on February 22 from Region 3234 (N25E47) it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean.


Filament eruption on the northwest

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628440914048782338

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3220, AR3226, AR3229, AR3230, AR3231 , AR3233, AR3234.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 106 (41 of these are grouped into 7 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.AR3229 is gone but AR3234 (N32E50) has grown in size (300MH) sunspots number and magnetic complexity to beta-gamma

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628573209414041600

THE SUN IS CRACKLING WITH FLARES: Growing sunspot AR3234 is crackling with solar flares, including more than half a dozen M-class events since Monday. Pulses of radiation are ionizing the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a rolling series of shortwave radio blackouts around all longitudes of our planet. This sunspot will become even more geoeffective in the days ahead as it continues to turn toward Earth. SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 06:02 UTC on February 22. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 02:33 UTC on February 23 Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 02:59 UTC
Maximum planetary index Kp5

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on February 23

▪︎ Geomagnetic storm G1 in progress
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 5
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 535.2 km/sec
▪︎density: 11.51 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.8% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 23:01 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 106 (SN 124 Feb 21)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 24/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.5 event observed at 06:14 UTC on February 23 from Region 3235 (N19E08) it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over India.


Prominence on the southern

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628786456792629249

Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole could reach Earth on Feb 27-28.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628926092827324416

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3229, AR3230, AR3234. and new regions AR3235 and AR3236

AR3220, AR3226, AR3231 , AR3233, are gone.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 108 (58 of these are grouped into 5 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance for M flares and 20% chance for X flares. AR3234 (N25E33) has grown again in size (580MH) sunspots number (25) and magnetic complexity to beta-delta

SUNSPOT EVOLUTION: Active sunspot AR3234 is not only turning toward Earth, but also growing. This 48-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows AR3234 quadrupling in size as it comes around the solar limb:

AR3234 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Any eruptions in the days ahead will be geoeffective as the sunspot lines up with our planet. SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 06:54 UTC on February 23.
Maximum planetary index Kp5

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on February 24

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 553.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 13.33 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.7% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C6 at 23:13 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 106 (SN 124 Feb 21)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 25/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3.7 event observed at 2030 UTC on February 24 from Region 3229 (N25W32) It caused a huge eruption of plasma from the Sun. Also the M-class flare produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean.

A CHAIN REACTION ON THE SUN: A magnetic filament connected to sunspot AR3229 erupted on Feb. 24th (1949 UTC), producing a chain reaction of events. First, the filament sliced through the sun's atmosphere:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629241309130096640

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629230011617054720

Its liftoff destabilized the sunspot, sparking a long duration M3-class solar flare (2030 UTC). The flare, in turn, ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, blacking out shortwave radio transmissions around the Pacific Ocean: map.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629254072615469056

Next, a CME emerged from the blast site. Coronagraph images from SOHO show a lopsided halo with an Earth-directed component:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629344852474298368

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629256299866202112

Type II solar radio emissions from the leading edge of the CME suggest a departure speed of 1200 km/s (2.7 million mph). The flank of the CME could reach Earth on Feb. 27th. NOAA analysts are modeling the storm cloud now, so stay tuned for a refined forecast.​

That's not all.

Shock waves inside the CME accelerated protons to nearly light speed, and they have already reached Earth. NOAA's GOES-16 satellite detected them. Our planet's magnetic field is funneling the particles toward the poles where a second type of radio blackout is underway--a Polar Cap Absorption Event. Airplanes flying over these regions may find that their shortwave radios won't work due to the ionizing effect of infalling protons: map SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3229, AR3230, AR3234.AR3235, AR3236 and new region AR3237

The total number of sunspots has increased to 130 (70 of these are grouped into 6 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. AR3234 (N25E19) remains the most dangerous region and has halted its growth for the time being.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 23:34 UTC on February 24 Maximum planetary index Kp4

INCOMING SOLAR WIND STREAM: A stream of solar wind is approaching Earth. ETA: Feb. 26-28. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere, and it could spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm when it arrives. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:40 UTC on February 25

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 414.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 3.1 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.7% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C8 at 04:22 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 130 (SN 106 Feb 21)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 26/2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 19:44 UTC on February 25 from Region 3229 (N25W46). It caused a Modetate R2 Radio blackout over Pacific Ocean and a Minor S1 Solar Radiation Storm. Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions. There is a CME associated with the M-class flare

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629620801384202240

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629584575969017857

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629666548242694148

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3229, AR3230, AR3234.AR3235, AR3236 and AR3237

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 129 (68 of these are grouped into 6 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 65% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 22:52 UTC on February 25 Maximum planetary index Kp3

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2-CLASS): The odds of a geomagnetic storm this week are increasing. There are now two CMEs (#1, #2) en route to Earth, both launched over the weekend from the vicinity of sunspot AR3229. Their consecutive arrivals on Feb. 27th and 28th could spark G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms. During such storms, auroras can appear in the USA as far south as, e.g., Idaho and New York. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on February 26

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 456.7 km/sec
▪︎ Moderate density: 21.95 protons/cm3 due to Minor S1 Solar Radiation Storm.
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.6% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 22:00 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 129 (SN 130 Feb 25)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

Minor G1 Geomagnetic storm in progress

As reported, the first of two CMEs arrived this Sunday, Feb. 26. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) at 20:55 UTC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629924965792333829

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629921888301359107

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629930544153722884

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629950591140089858

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629959522126028803

● Current Conditions at 22:55 UTC on February 26

▪︎ Geomagnetic storm in progress
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 5
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 652.8 km/sec
▪︎ Moderate density: 22.12 protons/cm3 due to Minor S1 Solar Radiation Storm.
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.6% Below Average

StackPath

 

[Puma]

UPDATE

Minor G1 Geomagnetic storm in progress

As reported, the first of two CMEs arrived this Sunday, Feb. 26. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) at 20:55 UTC

Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 23:40 UTC. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 755.5 km/s at 23:58 UTC on February 26

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629993504423198720

● Current Conditions at 01:20 UTC on February 27

▪︎ Geomagnetic storm G2 in progress
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 6
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 644.8 km/sec
▪︎ Low density: 2.47 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.0% Below Average
StackPath

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 27/ 2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 26/1200Z from Region 3235 (N19W34).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630036286835765249

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3229, AR3230, AR3234.AR3235, AR3236 and AR3237

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 120 (60 of these are grouped into 6 active regions)

NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 65% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to Moderate Storm levels for the past 24 hours.
●Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 21:45 UTC
●Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 23:40 UTC
●Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 02:48 UTC on February 27
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 755.5 km/s at 23:58 UTC on February 26 Maximum planetary index Kp6

GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storm is underway following the arrival of a CME on Feb. 26th. A second CME is still incoming. Its impact later today or tomorrow could intensify the storm to category G3 (Strong) with possible mid-latitude auroras in the USA. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on February 27

▪︎ Geomagnetic storm G1
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 5
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 609.9 km/sec
▪︎ low density: 19.06 p/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.0% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 22:43 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 120 (SN 129 Feb 26)
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