Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 14_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 13:31 UTC from Region 3484 (S15W76) on November 13.

A partial solar eclipse viewed by GOES-SUVI today, up in geosynchronous orbit. This marks one lunar-cycle since we saw the annular eclipse on Earth last month! The Moon will drift from Sun-Earth alignment for a while, before returning for a total eclipse on April 8th ☀️🌑 pic.twitter.com/5Sqzzaz0mj

— Dr. Ryan French (@RyanJFrench) November 13, 2023

There are currently 5 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3483, AR3484, AR3485, AR3486 and new region AR3487

AR3477 & AR3481 are gone

RAPIDLY GROWING SUNSPOT GROUP: It is just south and west of the one I tweeted about yesterday. In about 12 hours it has grown a complex of spots, both leading (-ve) and trailing (+ve) spanning over 50,000 km (~4 Earth diameters). Will it start interacting with its new neighbor? pic.twitter.com/kNLIfy69id

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 13, 2023

Total number of sunspots has increased to 85 (24 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 25% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3483 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. On November 13 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1205 km/s at 02:41 UTC. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 17:08 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 8.99 nT North


● Current Conditions at 03:30 UTC on November 14

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 424 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 3 4 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 12.2 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 20.21x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.0 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0201 UT Nov14
▪︎ Sunspot number: 85 (SN 78 November 13)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 15_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. On November 14 the largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 23:05 UTC from AR3485 (S19W79) the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South west Pacific Ocean​

M FLARE! Sunspot region AR3484 produced an M1 flare near peaking at 23:05 UT on 14 November near the SW limb of the Sun. It was an impulsive flare lasting only 20 minutes from beginning to end. No sign of any significant ejecta. pic.twitter.com/MGPOAWUwKT

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 15, 2023

There are currently 6 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3483, AR3484, AR3485, AR3486 AR3487 and new region AR3488

Total number of sunspots has increased to 86 (26 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 85% chance for C flares, 20% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3483 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares but it will be leaving solar disk in the next few hours.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On November 14 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 00:22 UTC. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 00:00 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.99 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on November 15

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 371 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5.18 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.22 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 20.21x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.0 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 2305 UT Nov14
▪︎ Sunspot number: 86 (SN 85 November 14)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Ca.]

SO2 Detected In Grindavik Triggers Evacuation, Eruption Seems Imminent - Winter Blackouts Predicted

4 hours ago
Related: Europe Taps Record-High Natural Gas Storage As Temperatures Drop

After Blue City Invested in 'Green' Snow Plows - They Get Hit With Harsh Reality

Bad idea...

pjnewsletter.com

By Mick Farthing| November 13, 2023

What’s Happening:​

Since Joe Biden entered office, Democrats have been pushing for a “green” revolution. Washington has dumped billions into green technology–with middling results.

Believing this was the future, some blue states aggressively started transitioning to “alternative” energy. New Jersey installed wind turbines off the coast–which some claim are killing whales.

Another blue state thought it was time to switch to electric snow plows. But with the first whiff of snow, they learned a harsh reality.

From Breitbart:
New York is staying with traditional diesel-powered snow plows after rejecting electric vehicles proposed as a replacement…
Essanews reports the move has been a failure. The reason was given as a simple lack of power…
Consequently, the electric vehicle’s power supply was insufficient for the demands of a New York winter, known for its heavy snowfall.

New York City considered buying electric Mack trucks for the upcoming winter snowfall. The goal was to equip these trucks with snow plows while removing garbage. But they quickly learned these “clean” electric trucks could not provide enough power to do the job.

Studies showed that electric vehicles needed to be in “constant movement,” which made collecting trash impossible. The buildup of snow in front of the vehicle proved to be too much for the electric motors.

We remind you, snowplows… plow snow, so there will always be resistance.

The trucks’ power supplies could not meet the demands of a New York winter, which often sees large dumps of snow, especially in January and February.

The city has been forced to ditch this plan and stick with traditional diesel-powered snow plows.

Many have been critical of Democrats’ mad dash for “green” technology. Biden’s ban on drilling for oil and gas has seen dramatic increases in the cost of electricity. Car companies are losing billions after making too many EVs.

Americans are refusing to buy electric vehicles because they lack the range of a gas-powered car.

Critics have also questioned why Democrats are focusing solely on EVs when there are other viable alternatives. Diesel-powered cars use less fuel than regular gas-powered cars, yet they are overlooked by Democrats.

Fuel cell-powered cars have been largely rejected, in favor of EVs that put huge demand on the grid.

It is possible that Democrats are pushing EVs at the behest of corporate lobbyists, despite the best interests of Americans.

Key Takeaways:​

• New York attempted to switch to electric-powered snow plows.
• The EV trucks could not handle the job, as their power supplies were too weak.
• The city will stay with diesel-powered trucks to handle the snow.

Source: Breitbart

How to Survive When Society Goes Dark (Lessons from Somalia)

I had a chance to speak with Craig Simpson from Radiant Creators about his time in Somalia after law and a complete infrastructure occurred, what happened, and how people get along in life.https://t.co/q4qBaKcQTU

— David DuByne (@adapt2030) November 15, 2023

NASA's AIM Satellite Mission | AIM Project Science

The Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) NASA satellite mission is exploring PMCs/NLCs.

aim.hamptonu.edu

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724513303676809724

19 Resorts Open, New Multi-Resort Pass, Aspen Lawsuit, & FIS Racing Results - SnowBrains News Ep. 7

https://t.co/f0efae24Z7

— SnowBrains (@SnowBrains) November 14, 2023

 

[dennis]

Shaken and Stirred: When Bond Meets Suess–de Vries and Gnevyshev–Ohl

We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess–de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can all be explained by combined synchronization with the 11.07-year periodic tidal forcing of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-year periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system.

Shaken and Stirred: When Bond Meets Suess–de Vries and Gnevyshev–Ohl - Solar Physics

We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess–de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can all be explained by combined synchronization with the 11.07-year...

link.springer.com

Abstract We propose a self-consistent explanation of Rieger-type periodicities, the Schwabe cycle, and the Suess-de Vries cycle of the solar dynamo in terms of resonances of various wave phenomena with gravitational forces exerted by the orbiting planets. Starting on the high-frequency side, we show that the two-planet spring tides of Venus, Earth and Jupiter are able to excite magneto- Rossby waves which can be linked with typical Rieger-type periods. We argue then that the 11.07-year beat period of those magneto-Rossby waves synchro- nizes an underlying conventional α − Ω-dynamo, by periodically changing either the field storage capacity in the tachocline or some portion of the α-effect therein. We also strengthen the argument that the Suess-de Vries cycle appears as an 193-year beat period between the 22.14-year Hale cycle and a spin-orbit coupling effect related with the 19.86-year rosette-like motion of the Sun around the barycenter.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.00666.pdf

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 16_2023

ANOTHER SHARP DROP IN SUNSPOT NUMBERS. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. On November 15 the largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04:01 UTC from AR3485 (S18W93)​

There are currently 3 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3486 AR3487, AR3488

AR3483, AR3484 & AR3485 are gone.

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 41 (11 of these are grouped into 3 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 85% chance for C flares, 20% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On November 15 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s (Elevated speed) at 18:00 UTC. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21:08 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.14 nT North

● Current Conditions at 03:50 UTC on November 16

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 397 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.32 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.8 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 20.20x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.8 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0333 UT Nov16
▪︎ Sunspot number: 41 (SN 86 November 15)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 17_2023

WHERE ARE THE LARGE SOLAR FLARES?

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 04:33 UTC on November 16

🌞 Sun activity for Nov 16, 2023: Far-side action could head our way

🫣 😱 A huge filament erupted this morning; see the rope of plasma and magnetic fields soar out over the SW limb. Yesterday, SOHO observed a huge CME erupting from the north.

🧐 MORE at https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/grmEhdlsWN

— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) November 16, 2023

More filament eruptions from the Sun this morning! I’ve lost count of how many that is this week, the Sun has a seemingly endless supply. But the question on everyone’s mind, where are the large solar flares? #spaceweather pic.twitter.com/c3Igkioj0m

— Dr. Ryan French (@RyanJFrench) November 16, 2023

There are currently 2 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3486 AR3487,

AR3488 is gone??

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 28 (8 of these are grouped into 2 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 15% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares. These two Active regions are stable and quiet, posing no threat for strong solar flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On November 16 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s (Elevated speed) at 13:08 UTC. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23:53 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.01 nT North


● Current Conditions at 03:40 UTC on November 17

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 380 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 2.17 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 20.20x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.8% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 2130 UT Nov16
▪︎ Sunspot number: 28 (SN 41 November 16)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

Found this site, offering composite maps of the farside of the sun, updated everyday.
Bolded numbers in the list gives an idea of the strength of each region and his distance to the near side in days.
Today's ones:

"

2023-11-16.5
Far-Side Vantage: CLon = 287.0, Lat = -2.7

Designation Centroid Strength ETA at Days from
-------- Longitude Latitude East Limb East Limb


FS-2023-100 9.3 -14.8 453 2023-11-16.6 0.6
FS-2023-101 325.7 -15.1 2855 2023-11-19.9 3.9
FS-2023-098 321.7 22.1 6649 2023-11-20.2 4.2
FS-2023-104 292.8 -13.1 464 2023-11-22.4 6.4
FS-2023-105 281.1 -20.9 550 2023-11-23.4 7.4
FS-2023-103 278.2 20.4 144 2023-11-23.5 7.5​

Top image shows composite map of the Sun in Carrington format.Seismic signature of activity in the far hemisphere is rendered in amber.Line-of-sight magnetogram in the near hemisphere is rendered in blue-gray.Bottom image identifies "Strong Active Regions (SARs)" recognized in the farhemisphere by the Strong Active Region Discriminator (SARD)."

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 18_2023

OVER 100,000 KM LONG LOOP ERUPTS OFF THE NE LIMB.

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 1010 UTC on November 17

OVER 100,000 KM LONG LOOP ERUPTS OFF THE NE LIMB: It is clear that the loop erupts from behind the limb so probably was much larger than it appears to us. pic.twitter.com/wPJYAO83wf

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 18, 2023

🌞🤩 👏 Sun activity for Nov 17, 2023: Here comes the sun or at least a piece of it. Yesterday's CME should bring geomagnetic storms Nov 19. Filaments activate as a prominence dances over the North Pole.

🤔 🧐 More at EarthSky: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e #sunfun pic.twitter.com/7DVGH1hRKL

— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) November 17, 2023

There are currently 2 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3486 and new region AR3489

AR3487 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 26 (6 of these are grouped into 2 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 20% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares. These two Active regions are stable and quiet, posing no threat for strong solar flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On November 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s (Normal speed) at 21:00 UTC.

WEEKEND GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A CME (movie) is expected to hit Earth this weekend--probably on Nov. 19th. The impact could spark minor G1-class geomagnetc storms on the 19th and 20th. During such storms, naked-eye auroras typically fill the Arctic Circle. Fainter photographic auroras (best seen using cameras) may cross the US-Canadian border, dipping into states from New York to Washington. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.28 nT North


● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on November 18

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 0)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 316 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 8.27 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 1.73 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.84x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.5% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0432 UT Nov18
▪︎ Sunspot number: 28 (SN 41 November 16)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 19_2023

HAT-TRICK FROM NEW REGION: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Three M1 events were observed from new region AR3490 (N18E69) on November 18

🌞Sun activity for Nov 18, 2023: Top News

🤩🥳A new region brings on the action

😱One of the new regions has begun to rotate into view on the east limb (edge), and brought sun activity up to moderate levels. Thanks to an M1.2 flare

🧐MORE at EarthSky: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/lOFo0FbU8S

— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) November 18, 2023

● M1.2 at 05:42 the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over India Ocean

M FLARE FROM BEHIND THE LIMB: There is obviously a very active sunspot region behind the NE limb of the Sun. This is this morning's M1.3 flare seen in AIA's 131A channel (10MK). As the limb is cutting off much of the event from our sight it was a much bigger event than GOES saw. pic.twitter.com/OOJjLlEISC

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 18, 2023

● M1.1 at 16:44 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America

ANOTHER M FLARE: At 16:40 UT the unnumbered sunspot region behind the NE limb produced an M2 flare. It was much lower so more eclipsed by the limb, hence probably that much larger. The X-ray background is steadily rising as the group becomes more visible. pic.twitter.com/JsBNomlgNP

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 18, 2023

● M1 at 22:34 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

ANOTHER M FLARE: At 22:30 U.T. the new region on the NE limb produced an M1 flare. That is the third one today. Large spots are beginning to show up on the limb, it seems to be more than one group, but we will have wait for them to rotate further on to disk to see their structure pic.twitter.com/sPrvVGBtfQ

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 19, 2023

There are currently 3 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3486, AR3489 and new region AR3490


Total number of sunspots has increased to 39 (9 of these are grouped into 3 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 25% chance M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

New sunspot AR3490 is crackling with M-class solar flares. At the moment all regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On November 18 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 315 km/s (Normal speed) at 02:08 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 1633 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.35 nT North


● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on November 19

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 333 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 4.4 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.45x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.1% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 2249 UT Nov18
▪︎ Sunspot number: 39 (SN 28 November 18)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 20_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 08:34 UTC from Region 3489 (S18E43)

🌞Sun activity for Nov 19, 2023, is moderate. Fun filaments and CMEs galore

🤩👏Today’s top news: It’s a day of flying filaments. Looking along the limb, we see many eruptions, small/large, front/back-sided. It makes for quite a show.

🧐More at EarthSky: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/pdS3ccaNyS

— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) November 19, 2023

There are currently 3 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490 and new region AR3491​

AR3486 AR3486 will leave in the next few hours

A BIG NEW SUNSPOT GROUP: A large and active sunspot group is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. This 24-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows seven Earth-sized dark cores, with more to come:​

​

Newly-numbered "AR3490," the sunspot group is cracking with flares. Earth-orbiting satellites have registered three M-class flares and nearly a dozen C-class flares since the weekend began.​

The sunspot group is so large, it is affecting the way the whole sun vibrates. Helioseismologists used the tremors to detect this sunspot group while it was still on the farside of the sun. Their latest seismic maps confirm that we haven't seen all of it; some of the group is still wrapped around the edge of the sun. SpaceWeather.com​

NOT ONE, NOT TWO, BUT UPTO SIX NEW SUNSPOT REGIONS: All the flare activity we have seen in the last 36 hours did not come from a single sunspot region but from a complex of ~6 sunspot groups. So there are multiple chances of interactions between them and any regions in the South. pic.twitter.com/zggv8CvcZF

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 19, 2023

Total number of sunspots has increased to 51 (21 of these are grouped into 3 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

New sunspot AR3490 is crackling with M-class solar flares. At the moment all regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On November 19 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s (Elevated speed) at 08:05 UTC. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 07:59 UTC​

WAITING FOR THE CME: A CME (movie) expected to hit Earth on Nov. 19th has not yet arrived. NOAA forecasters still think it's coming, and they say that a G1-class geomagnetic storm is possible on Nov. 20th when the belated CME reaches our planet. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.91 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on November 20

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 343.5 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 7.7p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.85x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.1% (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0311 UT Nov20
▪︎ Sunspot number: 51 (SN 39 November 19)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 21_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 0903 UTC from Region 3492 (N18E64). The flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean​

There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490 AR3491 and new regions AR3492, AR3493, AR3494, AR3495,
AR3496, AR3497

Total number of sunspots has increased to 127 (37 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

Sunspot complex AR3490-91-92 has a beta-gamma class magnetic field that poses a growing threat for M-class solar. Sunspot AR3489 has developed a beta-delta class magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class flares. ​

A BIG SUNSPOT IS TURNING TOWARD EARTH: It's 200,000 km wide, contains a dozen dark cores, and is crackling with M-class solar flares. Sunspot complex AR3490-91-92 is so big it takes 3 numbers to label it. The active region is turning toward Earth and will pose a threat for Earth-directed flares by mid-week. SpaceWeather.com

NEW SPOTS APPEARING: On the SE limb there is a large region, AR 3489, but 2 new large spots come over the E limb. A new spot emerges just E of AR3489. Then 2 new spots emerged AR3489 and the two larger spots on the limb. That's 5 new regions appearing in the last couple of days. pic.twitter.com/irsX5pcOIC

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 20, 2023

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On November 20 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 353 km/s (Normal speed) at 0140 UTC. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 1002 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.8 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on November 21

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 333.3 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5.45 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9.52 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.70x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 1.9 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C6 0345 UT Nov21
▪︎ Sunspot number: 127 (SN 59 November 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 22_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 13:52 UTC on November 21 from Region 3492 (N18E50).

HOW MANY EARTHS? A large filament erupted from the SE limb of the Sun yesterday. How many Earths do you think would pass through the loop without touching the sides? pic.twitter.com/2ZtUg0j2pN

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 21, 2023

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490 AR3491, AR3492, AR3493, AR3494, AR3495, AR3496, AR3497 and new region AR3498

Total number of sunspots has increased to 138 (49 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

Sunspot complex AR3490-91-92 has a beta-gamma class magnetic field that poses a growing threat for M-class solar. Sunspot.

🌞 Sun activity for November 21, 2023: It’s a potpourri of sunspots

😱 🥳 Today’s top news: Yesterday started with three active regions (sunspot groups), then bang, there were nine. Wow, that is crazy.

🧐 MORE at EarthSkay: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/c5SPoNoEzI

— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) November 21, 2023

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On November 21 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s (Normal speed) at 20:44 UTC. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06:47 UTC
​

THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: Earth is inside a stream of high-speed (>500 km/s) solar wind threaded with stronger-than-usual magnetic fields. The action of the stream is disturbing Earth's magnetic field, although it has not yet triggered a geomagnetic storm. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras after local nightfall. SpaceWeather.com​

The solar wind has suddenly jumped to nearly 600km/s and the temperature has increased from 50,000K to 400,000K indicating a source region nearer the corona. If Bz (the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field) turns south then a geomagnetic storm is quite possible pic.twitter.com/NzT2KGMH60

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 22, 2023

Aurora Oval Bz: -7.63 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on November 22

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 510 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 5.55 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 13.84 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.70x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 1.9 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C7 0111 UT Nov22
▪︎ Sunspot number: 138 (SN 127 November 21)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 23_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 06:28 UTC on November 22 from Region 3492 (N18E36).​

CME WATCH - 2023.11.22: HAPPY THANKSGIVING - A big eruption off the NE limb, followed by an even bigger one off the SE limb (see previous tweet), an finally yet larger one off the S limb. Will the later affect the Earth, have to wait and see! pic.twitter.com/qrxPyYfDpp

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 23, 2023

SPECTACULAR 'CANYON OF FIRE' ERUPTION (UPDATED): A dark filament of magnetism erupted from the sun this morning (Nov. 22 @ 0600 UT), carving a deep 'canyon of fire' in the sun's atmosphere. First-look forecast models suggest that a CME emerging from the blast site will just miss Earth later this week. SpaceWeather.com​

A GRAND PROMINENCE/FILAMENT ERUPTION: A large magnetic loop stretching from near disk center to over the SE limb rises and erupts. It must be over 500,000 km long. Compare to size of the Earth (inset). pic.twitter.com/D30pQMBcHV

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 23, 2023

There are currently 10 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490 AR3491, AR3492, AR3493, AR3494, AR3495, AR3496, AR3497, AR3498

Total number of sunspots has increased to 174 (85 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

Sunspot complex AR3490-91-92 has a beta-gamma class magnetic field that poses a growing threat for M-class solar. Sunspot.​

SUPER GROUP! This is the biggest spot group so far this cycle. You can try to count the number of sunspots here if you want but it is hard. Counting the number of sunspot groups in this conglomeration: NOAA has numbered 5 but I think there is at least 6 and possibly as many as 8. pic.twitter.com/PcujCQZKpI

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 22, 2023

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. On November 22 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 595 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 02:09 UTC. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 02:12 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.56 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on November 23

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 485 6 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 1.24 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.59 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.70x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.8 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 0338 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean


▪︎ Sunspot number: 174 (SN 138 November 22)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Ca.]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 23_2023

The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!​

Update: first -40°C of the season in Canada reached in Eureka with a preliminary Tmin of -40.8°C.

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) November 23, 2023

Travel Forecast For Thanksgiving And The Weekend - Kīlauea Unrest - The Ozone Hole Isn't Recovering

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

SPECTACULAR 'CANYON OF FIRE' ERUPTION (UPDATED): A dark filament of magnetism erupted from the sun this morning (Nov. 22 @ 0600 UT), carving a deep 'canyon of fire' in the sun's atmosphere. First-look forecast models suggest that a CME emerging from the blast site will just miss Earth later this week. CME alerts: SMS Text

Huge spread today between Iqaluit and Eureka, Nunavut 🇨🇦!

🥶 Eureka had a Tmin of -39.9°C [Tmax -35.6°C], the lowest temperature of the season in #Canada so far.

🥵 Iqaluit had a Tmax of -0.2°C [Tmin -2.5°C], which is 15°C above average. #NUstorm pic.twitter.com/emPLVYCLCW

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) November 23, 2023

California Weather: Pattern Change outlook!​

Nov 22, 2023

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 24_2023

MONSTER ERUPTIONS. Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. On November 23 two M-class solar flares were recorded. The first flare has already been reported and came from an as yet unnumbered region.

X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 0338 UTC the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean.

DOUBLE TROUBLE! The M flare was from behind the east limb. Note there is a dark prominence just on the limb, initially not involved. Then the flare explodes over the limb, ejecting material to the NE and post-flare loops brighten. The prominence then destabilizes and erupts. pic.twitter.com/HDbkaTjXSf

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) November 23, 2023

Second flare a M1 at 14:37 UTC from AR3490 (N21E11) the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Brazil

A series of monster eruptions on the east-edge of the Sun today. These active regions will continue to rotate towards us in the coming days - so let’s see if the activity continues! #spaceweather (data: LASCO & SUVI) pic.twitter.com/eHb9xnuNuz

— Dr. Ryan French (@RyanJFrench) November 24, 2023

Massive eruptions from the limbs of the Sun earlier today simply incredible! #CME #aurora #SpaceWeather CME arrival 20231126T0230Z pic.twitter.com/Yk1bXuPShA

— Harlan Thomas (@theauroraguy) November 23, 2023

A SHARP INCREASE IN SOLAR ACTIVITY: Over the past week, sunspot numbers have increased almost 10-fold with dozens of dark cores now present on the solar disk. It is no surprise that solar activity has sharply increased as well. Just today multiple overlapping CMEs have billowed away from the sun:​

​

Analysts will have to spend some time unraveling these clouds to determine their trajectories. However, a NASA model already suggests one may be heading for Earth. The first, bright southerly CME shown in the movie above could hit our planet's magnetic field during the late hours of Nov. 25th. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 12 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490 AR3491,AR3492, AR3493, AR3494, AR3495, AR3496, AR3497, AR3498 and new regions AR3499, AR3500, AR3501

Total number of sunspots has increased to 176 (67 of these are grouped into 12 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

Sunspot regions AR3490 and AR3500 have developed a beta-gamma-delta class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. AR3492 continues with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On November 23 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 23:23 UTC.​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.7 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:36 UTC on November 24

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 358 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.05x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3.0 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0303 UT Nov24
▪︎ Sunspot number: 176 (SN 174 November 23)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org