Wandering Star
The Living Force
The sun is winking at us today
Sol (Sun) and its phenomena
- Thread starter mabar
- Start date
The sun is winking at us today
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 10_2024
X-FLARE
a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)
We see that most of the active regions have stable magnetic fields (alpha & beta) while AR3703 and AR3709 have unstable magnetic fields (beta-gamma) that harbor energy for M-flares. This is why the NOAA forecast indicates that there is a 70% chance of seeing M-class flares, in fact, during the transition from AR3697 to the west, 4 M-class events were observed.
X-FLARE
An X1.5 flare was recorded at 11:08 UTC from the AR3697 region which is already on the far side of the sun so it was partially eclipsed by the edge of the star, that is, it could have been brighter than observed or higher than X1. The explosion did not record a coronal mass ejection heading to Earth, however, a Strong R3 radio blackout over Africa and Europe was recorded.
A polar cap absorption event affecting shortwave radio inside the Arctic Circle was recorded as aftermath from strong M9 flare.
Around 17:00 UTC on June 10 the edge of the CME from the M9 event hit the Earth's magnetic field.
The solar wind speed increased to 428 km/s, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) points to the south which announces the presence of auroras while the Bt value is 14.23 nT, which indicates a strong solar magnetic field.
Let's see if the impact of the CME and the strong IMF have any impact on volcanoes or seismic activity.
The total number of sunspots is now on the order of 148 of which 35 are grouped into 9 active regions, as shown below:Around 17:00 UTC on June 10 the edge of the CME from the M9 event hit the Earth's magnetic field.
The solar wind speed increased to 428 km/s, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) points to the south which announces the presence of auroras while the Bt value is 14.23 nT, which indicates a strong solar magnetic field.
Let's see if the impact of the CME and the strong IMF have any impact on volcanoes or seismic activity.
| Active Region | Sunspots | Size (MH) & class |
| AR3701 | 1 | 10 a |
| AR3702 | 3 | 80 B |
| AR3703 | 2 | 70 By |
| AR3704 | 1 | 10 a |
| AR3707 | 5 | 40 B |
| AR3708 | 2 | 60 a |
| AR3709 | 14 | 230 By |
| AR3710 | 4 | 40 B |
| AR3711 | 3 | 60 B |
We see that most of the active regions have stable magnetic fields (alpha & beta) while AR3703 and AR3709 have unstable magnetic fields (beta-gamma) that harbor energy for M-flares. This is why the NOAA forecast indicates that there is a 70% chance of seeing M-class flares, in fact, during the transition from AR3697 to the west, 4 M-class events were observed.
The sun's magnetic field is about to flip. Here's what to expect.
The sun's magnetic field is about to flip. Here's what to expect.
The reversal could have a beneficial effect on Earth.
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 15_2024
a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)
Sunspot AR3712 is of special interest given its unstable beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that commonly produces strong flares that can reach X-class and for this reason NOAA forecasts a 50% chance of M-class flares and 10% for X-class in the next 24 hours. Sunspot 13712 has been the most active region, It appeared in the southeast region of the solar disk last June 12 and so far has generated a number of C-class flares and three M-class solar flares: one M2.4 on June 14 and two almost simultaneous M1.3 on June 15. These flares recorded minor R1 radio blackouts in Southeast Asia and in the Indian region respectively.
This unexpected CME impact caused the solar wind stream to reach 457km/sec which is an elevated level, while IMF: Bt (strength) reached 13nT.
Subsequently, at 13:10 UTC an increase in Active Geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) was recorded and at 13:29 UTC a minor geomagnetic storm G1 (Kp5) occurred, which subsided around 15:00 UTC.
"This is probably due to the coronal hole (see earlier tweet) that is on the solar disk. Will the storm intensify possible but unlikely - not a very large coronal hole" Published on X the Solar Physicist Keith Strong.
If this was the case, what caused the solar storm was not a CME but a high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. And in my opinion this is correct, so there is no solar conspiracy.
Stay tuned
In recent days a phenomenon of solar tornadoes occurred. Solar tornadoes are different from those of the Earth because while those that happen on Earth are due to different atmospheric pressure sources, in the sun the magnetic difference is what causes the movement. A solar tornado is the size of several Earths combined.
According to solar science, the tornadoes occur at the poles, where lines of magnetic force point out into space, these tornadoes reach speeds of up to 200 thousand kilometers per hour.
Keith Strong wrote on X:
SOLAR TORNADOES? You are seeing here huge columns of relatively cold material (50,000K) suspended by magnetic fields in the 1MK (millions of kilometers) solar corona. The magnetic fields insulate the cold plasma but also moves creating what looks like a dance. Some call these tornadoes, but they aren't.
HERE & HERE you can see other tornadoes
The total number of sunspots is now on the order of 117 of which 62 are grouped into 7 active regions, as shown below:According to solar science, the tornadoes occur at the poles, where lines of magnetic force point out into space, these tornadoes reach speeds of up to 200 thousand kilometers per hour.
Keith Strong wrote on X:
SOLAR TORNADOES? You are seeing here huge columns of relatively cold material (50,000K) suspended by magnetic fields in the 1MK (millions of kilometers) solar corona. The magnetic fields insulate the cold plasma but also moves creating what looks like a dance. Some call these tornadoes, but they aren't.
HERE & HERE you can see other tornadoes
| Active Region | Sunspots | Size (MH) & class |
| AR3702 | 1 | 39 a |
| AR3708 | 1 | 40 a |
| AR3709 | 8 | 100 B |
| AR3711 | 5 | 10 B |
| AR3712 | 18 | 850 Byd |
| AR3713 | 10 | 130 By |
| AR3716 | 19 | 140 B |
Sunspot AR3712 is of special interest given its unstable beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that commonly produces strong flares that can reach X-class and for this reason NOAA forecasts a 50% chance of M-class flares and 10% for X-class in the next 24 hours. Sunspot 13712 has been the most active region, It appeared in the southeast region of the solar disk last June 12 and so far has generated a number of C-class flares and three M-class solar flares: one M2.4 on June 14 and two almost simultaneous M1.3 on June 15. These flares recorded minor R1 radio blackouts in Southeast Asia and in the Indian region respectively.
This unexpected CME impact caused the solar wind stream to reach 457km/sec which is an elevated level, while IMF: Bt (strength) reached 13nT.
Subsequently, at 13:10 UTC an increase in Active Geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) was recorded and at 13:29 UTC a minor geomagnetic storm G1 (Kp5) occurred, which subsided around 15:00 UTC.
"This is probably due to the coronal hole (see earlier tweet) that is on the solar disk. Will the storm intensify possible but unlikely - not a very large coronal hole" Published on X the Solar Physicist Keith Strong.
If this was the case, what caused the solar storm was not a CME but a high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. And in my opinion this is correct, so there is no solar conspiracy.
Stay tuned
SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 23_2024
a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)
This is basically what we should be aware of at the moment. Thank you
Do you remember the AR3664 region? It is about to return to the solar disk. In mid-May this sunspot produced a series of X-class flares and at one time reached a size of 2400MH.
X8.7 at 16:51 UTC from AR3664 the flare produced a Strong R3 radio blackout over Americas
AR3664 now carries the designation AR3723 and has produced a strong M9.2 flare at 13:01 UTC on June 23 which produced a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean and West Africa
The flare was partially eclipsed by the Sun's curvature, so it could have been an X-class flare.
The flare was partially eclipsed by the Sun's curvature, so it could have been an X-class flare.
SpaceWeather
So, we are possibly in for a week where AR3723 has some surprises in store. At the moment this sunspot has a stable magnetic field, which will change once it is better positioned in view of the instruments.
How is the sunspot situation at the moment?
The total number of sunspots is now on the order of 139 of which 92 are grouped into 11 active regions, as shown below:
So, we are possibly in for a week where AR3723 has some surprises in store. At the moment this sunspot has a stable magnetic field, which will change once it is better positioned in view of the instruments.
How is the sunspot situation at the moment?
The total number of sunspots is now on the order of 139 of which 92 are grouped into 11 active regions, as shown below:
| Active Region | Sunspots | Size (MH) & class |
| AR3712 | 18 | 850 By |
| AR3713 | 10 | 130 Byd |
| AR3716 | 19 | 140 B |
| AR3719 | 14 | 230 B |
| AR3720 | 13 | 140 B |
| AR3721 | 1 | 100 a |
| AR3722 | 1 | 60 a |
| AR3723 | 5 | 159 B/ new |
| AR3724 | 1 | 60 a/ new |
| AR3725 | 4 | 90 Bd/ new |
| AR3726 | 6 | 30 B/ new |
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours thanks to the M9.2 flare. The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unstable for the past 24 hours and FMI total reached 12 nT at 07:30 UTC on June 23, after several days of staying below 5nT.
This is basically what we should be aware of at the moment. Thank you
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 26_2024
a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)
The NOAA forecast for the next 24 hours is 99% probability for C-class flares, 55% for M-class flares and 5% for X-class flares which indicates that the trend of solar activity will remain low to moderate.
As if it were a solar biorhythm, we must wait for the next strong phase.
The spectacular CME referred to by Keith Strong occurred around 09:00 UTC on June 25 and was the result of the breakup of a magnetic filament in the southern hemisphere of the sun.
HERE you can see the CME HERE the filament. As a result of this event, a minor G1 geomagnetic storm is predicted to occur on June 28 when a component of the CME grazes the Earth's magnetic field. In the meantime, on June 27 the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the interplanetary magnetic field reached 12 nT at 03:29 UTC on June 26. We will have to wait and see what geophysical and weather effects this could have in the coming days.
Sunspot AR3723 (ex AR3664) has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class flares. However, it is no longer the sunspot that reached the size of 2400 millionths of a hemisphere. Its current size is 170MH which is equivalent to the size of the Earth. Since its appearance on June 23, it has mainly produced minor C-class flares and only two M-class flares, one of which was its presentation with a M9.2
The rest of the active regions have stable magnetic fields, either alpha or beta, so solar activity has remained at moderate to low levels.
The total number of sunspots is now on the order of 135 of which 45 are grouped into 9 active regions, as shown below:
The rest of the active regions have stable magnetic fields, either alpha or beta, so solar activity has remained at moderate to low levels.
The total number of sunspots is now on the order of 135 of which 45 are grouped into 9 active regions, as shown below:
| Active Region | Sunspots | Size (MH) & class |
| AR3719 | 7 | 170 B |
| AR3720 | 18 | 130 B |
| AR3721 | 2 | 100 a |
| AR3722 | 1 | 60 a |
| AR3723 | 7 | 170 Byd |
| AR3724 | 1 | 50 a |
| AR3727 | 3 | 100 B |
| AR3728 | 2 | 10 B |
| AR3729 | 4 | 60 B |
The NOAA forecast for the next 24 hours is 99% probability for C-class flares, 55% for M-class flares and 5% for X-class flares which indicates that the trend of solar activity will remain low to moderate.
As if it were a solar biorhythm, we must wait for the next strong phase.
The spectacular CME referred to by Keith Strong occurred around 09:00 UTC on June 25 and was the result of the breakup of a magnetic filament in the southern hemisphere of the sun.
HERE you can see the CME HERE the filament. As a result of this event, a minor G1 geomagnetic storm is predicted to occur on June 28 when a component of the CME grazes the Earth's magnetic field. In the meantime, on June 27 the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the interplanetary magnetic field reached 12 nT at 03:29 UTC on June 26. We will have to wait and see what geophysical and weather effects this could have in the coming days.
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 28_2024
a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)
HERE you can see an image of the active regions.
The forecast failed and what was expected to be a minor G1 storm became a severe G4 (kp8) storm whose threshold was reached at 14:15 UTC June 28 an hour later the storm subsided to G1 (Kp5) level. In fact, the geomagnetic event started at 02:02 UTC when active conditions (Kp4) were reached and from here on conditions progressed until a strong G3 class geomagnetic storm (Kp7) was reached at 13:27 UTC.
The brief and severe G4 geomagnetic storm, which implies the potential for widespread electrical problems or failures, was due not only to a component of the CME that brushed the Earth's magnetic field, but also to a sudden increase in solar wind density.
As can be seen in the following SpaceWeatherlive graph around 15:00 UTC a density of almost 75 p/cm³ was reached.
Solar activity has remained at low levels with a number of minor C-class flares mostly from AR3723 which has lost its gamma and delta components.
The total number of sunspots is now on the order of 146 of which 42 are grouped into 12 active regions, as shown below:The brief and severe G4 geomagnetic storm, which implies the potential for widespread electrical problems or failures, was due not only to a component of the CME that brushed the Earth's magnetic field, but also to a sudden increase in solar wind density.
As can be seen in the following SpaceWeatherlive graph around 15:00 UTC a density of almost 75 p/cm³ was reached.
Solar activity has remained at low levels with a number of minor C-class flares mostly from AR3723 which has lost its gamma and delta components.
| Active Region | Sunspots | Size (MH) & class |
| AR3719 | 3 | 240 B |
| AR3720 | 5 | 80 B |
| AR3721 | 3 | 110 a |
| AR3722 | 1 | 90 a |
| AR3723 | 6 | 50 B |
| AR3724 | 1 | 80 a |
| AR3727 | 2 | 230 a |
| AR3728 | 5 | 100 B |
| AR3729 | 8 | 240 B |
| AR3730 | 5 | 50 B |
| AR3731 | 1 | 10 a new new |
| AR3732 | 2 | 40 a |
HERE you can see an image of the active regions.
All regions now have stable magnetic fields and this implies that solar activity in the next 24 hours is expected to be low to moderate while the magnetic field remains at quiet to minor storm levels.
The Bt component of the interplanetary magnetic field exceeded 20nT around 14:00 UTC and during the severe geomagnetic storm the Bt component registered 18.35nT. Let's see what effects the strength of the solar magnetic field has on the weather and geophysical events in the coming days.
Screenshots are included because the SpaceWeatherlive graph is continuously updated.
Thanks for reading.
The Bt component of the interplanetary magnetic field exceeded 20nT around 14:00 UTC and during the severe geomagnetic storm the Bt component registered 18.35nT. Let's see what effects the strength of the solar magnetic field has on the weather and geophysical events in the coming days.
Screenshots are included because the SpaceWeatherlive graph is continuously updated.
Thanks for reading.
meadow_wind
Jedi Master
I saw a G4 warning this afternoon from NOAA and got all excited thinking we might have a repeat like the last event. I ended up disappointed when I saw it occurred around 11 am EST :(
I was going to post about it, but then I refrained because I did not know how to present the data; your posts are so much better!
I was going to post about it, but then I refrained because I did not know how to present the data; your posts are so much better!
Dr. Tamitha Skov opens an informal briefing on the current G4 solar storm.
RT 1hr+
From the Royal Observatory of Belgium Solar Influence Data Center
Cosmic Radiation Raining Down on Earth and Malignancy (PDF)
Meanwhile, under this current Solar Cycle
The ongoing stormy deterioration in the South-West of the country is causing a remarkable drop in temperatures reaching up to -14°C compared to yesterday at the same time in #Aveyron !
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