Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Ca.]

A one-two blow will bring some spectacular auroras in the next couple of days, and GOD knows what else.

Space Weather Snapshot 18 July 2024

I am furiously working on a new forecast since returning home from my family reunion. (I fell ill near the end of the trip, and I cannot overstate how good it is good to be home and working in my big studio again.) This snapshot is part of a bigger forecast in which I will go over the details of what is headed our way. We have multiple solar storm launches en route to Earth. Before you get too excited, only two of them are near direct hits. The others are flanking blows to some degree. However, all together they could mean some decent aurora starting July 20th. By July 21, aurora could be visible down to mid-latitudes. On top of that, these storms may be enhanced by some fast solar wind flow, which could strengthen the impact as well as extend the duration of the overall disturbance of these storms. I will go over the complexities in detail in my forecast. (I might even choose to do this forecast live, if it proves challenging to do formally). Below, I have included the coronagraph imagery and the solar storm model prediction run from NOAA/SWPC. NOAA has chosen to model the back-to-back storms that comprise the full halo in the coronagraph imagery (I labelled that signature "Full Earth-directed solar storm launch" in the coronagraph animation). Strangely enough, none of these solar storms were launched during the X-class flares we had back on July 14 and July 16. I will be sure to go over the details of the X-flares in the forecast as well.

Let me know if you would rather I do a live forecast for this set of events. I know these machine-gun solar storm launches can get quite complicated, which makes it hard to fully understand what is happening. I can make myself available for questions should you have them!