Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

A one-two blow will bring some spectacular auroras in the next couple of days, and GOD knows what else.

Space Weather Snapshot 18 July 2024
I am furiously working on a new forecast since returning home from my family reunion. (I fell ill near the end of the trip, and I cannot overstate how good it is good to be home and working in my big studio again.) This snapshot is part of a bigger forecast in which I will go over the details of what is headed our way. We have multiple solar storm launches en route to Earth. Before you get too excited, only two of them are near direct hits. The others are flanking blows to some degree. However, all together they could mean some decent aurora starting July 20th. By July 21, aurora could be visible down to mid-latitudes. On top of that, these storms may be enhanced by some fast solar wind flow, which could strengthen the impact as well as extend the duration of the overall disturbance of these storms. I will go over the complexities in detail in my forecast. (I might even choose to do this forecast live, if it proves challenging to do formally). Below, I have included the coronagraph imagery and the solar storm model prediction run from NOAA/SWPC. NOAA has chosen to model the back-to-back storms that comprise the full halo in the coronagraph imagery (I labelled that signature "Full Earth-directed solar storm launch" in the coronagraph animation). Strangely enough, none of these solar storms were launched during the X-class flares we had back on July 14 and July 16. I will be sure to go over the details of the X-flares in the forecast as well.

Let me know if you would rather I do a live forecast for this set of events. I know these machine-gun solar storm launches can get quite complicated, which makes it hard to fully understand what is happening. I can make myself available for questions should you have them!

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Screenshot 2024-07-20 at 04-24-44 enlil_swpc_overlay_July_annotated.gif (GIF Image 800 × 500 p...png
 
Just ran into some reports about something they're calling the "Cold Solar Flares" or "dark plasma explosions" which are expected to hit earth tomorrow and the day after, potentially causing some radio disruption.

From Space.com

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) watched as two loops of cool, dense plasma erupted from the sun's surface, looking eerily similar to a pair of dementors from Harry Potter hovering over the sun.
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Video below
https://twitter.com/x/status/1815507501216927782

SpaceWeather reports that a G2 Watch is in effect

https://twitter.com/x/status/1815339376089395342

The DailyMail also reported on this with the following headline

Warning Earth could be hit with radio blackouts this week as NASA captures dark plasma eruption from the sun​


In the past 24 hours, at least six M-class solar flares have caused radio disruptions internationally, including one M1 flare that caused radio blackouts in parts of the Western Hemisphere, and three in Asia.

The largest of these was an M3.2-class flare that led to a radio blackout in the Pacific late Sunday, according to University of Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center.

Experts have warned that Earth is set to weather increasingly more severe solar storms over the next year.
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So, we can perhaps expect some shenanigans in the next few days.
 
Alejo said:
So, we can perhaps expect some shenanigans in the next few days.
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SpaceWeather.com gave an update regarding these plasma eruption :

INEFFECTIVE CME IMPACT: Arriving 6 hours earlier than expected, a halo CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd (2010 UT). Normally, an early CME would strike harder than forecast due to its higher-than-expected speed. In this case, however, the impact was not effective. Magnetic fields within the CME did not connect to Earth's magnetosphere and, thus, no geomagnetic storm occured.
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Despite some activity in the past week, magnetic conditions remained quite stable. The only notable event is the sunspots' number, here's Dr Keith Strong comment from X :

BUSIEST SUN IN 22 YEARS: Last week the daily sunspot number exceeded 200 every day. The last time that happened was 22 years ago near the peak of solar cycle 23. The question is will it sustain this torrid rate of sunspot production, decay, or continue up? Only time will tell.
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Sun has been very active this past days, and today started with a strong M9.9 flare (video on twitter) :

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: Sunspot complex AR3765-67 is turning toward Earth, and it is crackling with strong solar flares. This eruption on July 28th (0157 UT) registered M9.9, only percentage points below X-class:​


​


A pulse of extreme ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over Japan, southeast Asia, and half of the Pacific Ocean: map. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.


We don't yet know if this explosion hurled a CME into space. If so, it could add to the Cannibal CME already en route to Earth. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs.
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And a few days back, on July 23, there was an estimated X14 flare on the far side.

MAJOR FARSIDE SOLAR FLARE: The biggest flare of Solar Cycle 25 just exploded from the farside of the sun. X-ray detectors on Europe's Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft registered an X14 category blast:​


​


Solar Orbiter was over the farside of the sun when the explosion occured on July 23rd, in perfect position to observe a flare otherwise invisible from Earth.
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A reminder from session 18 May 2024 :

Laura said:
Q: (L) Okay. So, there is no opening and closing of the Sun's window as long as the Sun continues to exist as a spherical object. And therefore, the question about coronal mass ejections is not relevant to the window state of the Sun. So, let's ask the next question: Are coronal mass ejections significant in some way, in a more than just, you know, ‘exploding thing’ sense?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) And what are they exactly?

A: Surges in heliogap field.

Q: (L) Okay. Surges in heliogap field. What… [laughs] I'm gonna do it, what is a heliogap field?

A: Field surrounding solar system.

Q: (L) Okay. So, I read about this Voyager spacecraft that they sent up years and years ago, and it was going into the outer reaches of the solar system and there were some strange effects on it when it started getting close to the reach of the Sun's... What would you call it? Its electrical reach.

(Andromeda) Electromagnetic field?

(L) Yeah, something like that. Yeah.

(Scottie) There's a name for it.

(Andromeda) Yeah, I know...

(L) I don't exactly remember what they call it. Do you know, honey?

(Joe) The heliofield.

(Niall) The heliosphere.

(L) That's it. Okay. So, does this have anything to do with the end of the heliosphere?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) And is there a gap outside this heliosphere?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) And you're saying that there was a surge. Where does that energy come from that surges across this gap and enters the heliosphere?

A: Other systems.

Q: (L) ‘Other systems’, as in solar systems or star systems?

A: Yes. Also galactic current.

Q: (L) So, there is a galactic current that's flowing in the galaxy, yes?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) And this galactic current crosses the gap into our heliosphere?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) And causes surges because it adds energy to our system. Is that it?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) And those surges can cause CMEs?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) And can those surges also cause very, very big ones?

A: Yes. Some surges can cause a star to explode.

Q: (L) Well, that's pleasant. Is that what's going to happen here?

A: No.

Q: (L) How do you know it's not going to happen? [Laughter]

A: Current is not that strong at present.
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Olivierlejardinier said:
Sun has been very active this past days, and today started with a strong M9.9 flare (video on twitter) :
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Hot off the press by Dr.Tamitha Skov

Multiple Earth-Directed Solar Storms & X-Flares on All Sides | Space Weather Spotlight 28 July 2024
Jul 28, 2024
This Space Weather News forecast is sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen

In the last 24 hours our Sun has gone from mild to wild. Not only do we have X-flare players on all sides of the Sun, but we have at least four, Earth-directed solar storms and a few glancing blows on their way as well.

All of the front-sided activity is mainly due to Regions 3762, 3764, and 3766 with the farsided activity due mainly to old Region 3738. The first set of solar storms is expected to arrive sometime on July 29, with the largest of these storms arriving around mid-day July 30.

Model predictions are still being processed at the time of this post, as this is a quickly evolving scene so all predictions will be updated as more information comes in. Right now, it looks like aurora chances will increase dramatically starting mid-day July 29, with conditions peaking late on July 30- 31.

We could easily see G2 to G3-level conditions by July 30th Also, the active region clusters comprising 3763, 3764, and 3766 as well as Region 3762 are continuing to grow in complexity and could continue firing big flares over the next few days.

This means more possible R2 to R3-level radio blackouts and possibly more Earth-directed solar storms as they rotate through the Earth-strike zone over the next few days.

Lean the details of these coming solar storms, find out when aurora will likely be visible & see what fireworks are lurking on the Sun's farside.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1817613876671967437
 
Ca. said:
Hot off the press by Dr.Tamitha Skov

Multiple Earth-Directed Solar Storms & X-Flares on All Sides | Space Weather Spotlight 28 July 2024
Jul 28, 2024


https://twitter.com/x/status/1817613876671967437
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CANNIBAL CME ALERT: A series of M-class flares over the weekend hurled multiple CMEs toward Earth, as many as four or five. According to a NOAA model, the first two CMEs are merging to form a single Cannibal CME.

Strong G3-class geomagnetic storms are possible when it reaches Earth on July 30th.

the sequence of images(in link below)are from a computer animation illustrating an artist's concept of Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) cannibalism. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are clouds of electrified, magnetic gas weighing billions of tons ejected from the Sun and hurled into space with speeds ranging from 12 to 1,250 miles per second (about 20 to 2,000 kilometers per second). The first CME blasts from the right side of the sun (bright, white area), and as it expands into space, it becomes fainter. A second CME erupts from near the same region on the Sun as the first CME, appearing as another bright burst on the right side of the Sun. The second CME is moving faster than the first, and it overtakes and assimilates the first CME in frames four through six. Solar researchers believe cannibal CMEs may be the source of 'complex ejecta' CME clouds; those with a larger and more complex structure than typical CMEs. These traits cause complex ejecta CMEs to trigger protracted magnetic storms when they envelop the Earth

NASA Scientific Visualization Studio | Cannibal CME

This sequence of images is from a computer animation illustrating an artist's concept of Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) cannibalism. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are clouds of electrified, magnetic gas weighing billions of tons ejected from the Sun and hurled into space with speeds ranging from 12...
svs.gsfc.nasa.gov svs.gsfc.nasa.gov
 
I am not sure of the effect of this in the grand scheme of things on the planet. But, thought interesting.

www.indiatoday.in

May's intense solar storm created an invisible ring around Earth

Earth is typically surrounded by two giant, donut-shaped rings of particles known as the Van Allen Belts.
www.indiatoday.in www.indiatoday.in

In May 2024, a series of powerful solar storms not only dazzled the world with stunning auroras but something even more mysterious.

The intense flurry of solar storm also led to the formation of a new, temporary ring of charged, high-energy particles around Earth. This remarkable discovery was made by NASA’s Colorado Inner Radiation Belt Experiment (CIRBE) CubeSat, revealing a third radiation belt encircling our planet.

Earth is typically surrounded by two giant, donut-shaped rings of particles known as the Van Allen Belts.

These belts, discovered in 1958 by astrophysicist James Van Allen, are regions of trapped high-energy particles from the Sun and cosmic rays. However, during especially large solar storms, a temporary third belt can form between the two permanent ones.

The newly discovered belt could last from months to years, and scientists are actively studying the data to understand its properties and longevity.


The solar storms of May 2024, particularly intense due to multiple X-class solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), marked the most powerful geomagnetic event in two decades.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1818678612762988570

The geomagnetic storm reached a G5-class rating, the highest on the geomagnetic storm scale, and produced auroras visible as far south as Florida and northern India.

The CIRBE CubeSat detected the formation of the third radiation belt, a rare occurrence that adds a new layer of complexity to our understanding of space weather.

"The CMEs all arrived largely at once, and the conditions were just right to create a really historic storm," said Elizabeth MacDonald, NASA heliophysics citizen science lead.

The Van Allen Belts play a crucial role in space exploration. In 1968, NASA's Apollo Mission 8 was the first crewed spaceship to fly beyond these belts to orbit the Moon. The belts' discovery was key to enabling exploration of the outer solar system by identifying safer routes through weaker radiation regions.

The new radiation belt's formation highlights the dynamic nature of Earth's space environment and the importance of continuous monitoring.
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Puma said:
Major X1.73 flare from sunspot region 3765 ionized the atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean causing a Strong R3 radio blackout.
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According to spaceweather.com, in fact two X flares occured from two distant sunspots:

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARES: Earth-orbiting satellites have detected two strong X-class solar flares on Aug. 5th. One (X1.7) came from departing sunspot AR3767 near the sun's western limb, the other (X1.1) from giant new sunspot AR3780 near the eastern limb. Shortwave radio blackouts occured over the Atlantic Ocean and the Americas as a result of the flares. More X-flares are in the offing especially from AR3780.
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Clip from the Xray flux graph :

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X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: Active sunspot AR3777 just produced its most powerful solar flare yet--an X1.3-class explosion on Aug. 8th (1935 UT). NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

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Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio blackout from North America to the Hawaiian islands. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.

Of greater interest is a possible CME. The US Air Force is reporting a strong Type II radio burst. This type of natural radio emission comes from shock waves at the leading edge of a fast CME. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronaraphs. Stay tuned.


The total number of sunspots is now on the order of 246 which are grouped into 8 active regions, as shown below:

Active RegionSunspotsSize (MH) & class
377213310 / By
377447400 / Byd
37751070 / B
377745400 / Byd
37801031250 / Byd
37815160 / Byd
378212260 / By
37831180 / B
a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

hmi200.gif
Sunspots AR3780, AR3781, AR3774, and AR3777 all have beta-gamma-delta magnetic fields that harbor energy for X-class solar flares.

The monstrous sunspot AR3780 will be facing the Earth next weekend, any flares will be geoeffective in that period. So far it has produced one X1.1 class flare on August 05 and six M class flares including one M6.1 on August 05.

Record number of sunspots​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821581710502637932
 
It's going to be another exciting week on the BBM :whistle:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--UPDATED: Geomagnetic storms are possible for the next three days (Aug 10th-12th) in response to a series of CMEs now heading for Earth. NOAA forecasters are predicting moderate G2-class storms. Multiple impacts in quick succession could escalate the storm to category G3 (Strong). If so, mid-latitude auroras might appear in the USA and Europe. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND HALO CME--UPDATED: Active sunspot AR3777 just produced its most powerful solar flare yet--an X1.3-class explosion on Aug. 8th (1935 UT). NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

​

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio blackout from North America to the Hawaiian islands. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.

Of greater interest is the coronal mass ejection (CME). Soon after the flare, SOHO coronagraphs detected a halo CME heading straight for Earth:
​
This CME is moving faster than 1,000 km/s (2.2 million mph) and it will likely arrive no later than Aug. 11th, adding its effect to that of two earlier CMEs already en route. (Update: NOAA says "early on Aug. 12th.")The impact could push geomagnetic storm levels to category G3 (Strong) with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

https://twitter.com/x/status/1822150282513350988
 
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