The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

[Ca.]

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Thursday, Mar. 3, 2022

FARSIDE SUNSPOT: NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring a large ultraviolet hotspot behind the sun's northeastern limb. It is definitely a concentration of hot plasma and magnetic fields; it might be an active sunspot. We will soon find out as it rotates into view before the end of the week. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

THE TERMINATION EVENT HAS ARRIVED: Something big just happened on the sun. Solar physicists Scott McIntosh (NCAR) and Bob Leamon (U. Maryland-Baltimore County) call it "The Termination Event."

"Old Solar Cycle 24 has finally died--it was terminated!" says McIntosh. "Now the new solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, can really take off."

The "Termination Event" is a new idea in solar physics, outlined by McIntosh and Leamon in a December 2020 paper in the journal Solar Physics. Not everyone accepts it--yet. If Solar Cycle 25 unfolds as McIntosh and Leamon predict, the Termination Event will have to be taken seriously.​

Above: Predictions for Solar Cycle 25. Blue is the official prediction of a weak cycle. Red is a new prediction based on the Termination Event.​

The basic idea is this: Solar Cycle 25 (SC25) started in Dec. 2019. However, old Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) refused to go away. It hung on for two more years, producing occasional old-cycle sunspots and clogging the sun's upper layers with its decaying magnetic field. During this time, the two cycles coexisted, SC25 struggling to break free while old SC24 held it back.

"Solar Cycle 24 was cramping Solar Cycle 25's style," says Leamon.

Researchers have long known that solar cycles can overlap. The twist added by McIntosh and Leamon is the realization that overlapping cycles can interact. This makes sense. In the early 20th century, George Ellery Hale discovered that the magnetic polarity of sunspot pairs reverses itself from one cycle to the next; indeed, the sun's entire global magnetic field flips every ~11 years. When adjacent, opposite-polarity solar cycles overlap, they naturally interfere.

Termination Events mark the end of interference, when a new cycle can break free of the old.​

Above: Bands of coronal bright points linked to old Solar Cycle 24 vanished in Dec. 2021, signalling a Termination Event. A Twitter thread from Scott McIntosh explains this in more detail.​

The timing of the Termination Event can predict the intensity of the new cycle. In their Solar Physics paper, McIntosh and Leamon looked back over 270 years of sunspot data and found that Termination Events happen every 10 to 15 years.

"We noticed that the longer the time between terminators, the weaker the next cycle would be," explains Leamon. "Conversely, the shorter the time between terminators, the stronger the next solar cycle would be."

So when did the latest Termination Event happen? Dec. 2021. This yields a specific, testable prediction for Solar Cycle 25.

"We have finalized our forecast of SC25's amplitude," says McIntosh. "It will be just above the historical average with a monthly smoothed sunspot number of 190 ± 20."

"Above average" may not sound exciting, but this is in fact a sharp departure from NOAA's official forecast of a weak solar cycle. It could be just enough to catapult Terminators into the forefront of solar cycle prediction techniques. Stay tuned. We'll be back.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499132301179031560

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499255440277790724

Explanation: What's happened to our Sun? Last month, it produced the largest prominence ever imaged together with a complete solar disk. The record image, featured, was captured in ultraviolet light by the Sun-orbiting Solar Orbiter spacecraft. A quiescent solar prominence is a cloud of hot gas held above the Sun's surface by the Sun's magnetic field. This solar prominence was huge -- spanning a length rivaling the diameter of the Sun itself. Solar prominences may erupt unpredictably and expel hot gas into the Solar System via a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). When a CME strikes the Earth and its magnetosphere, bright auroras may occur. This prominence did produce a CME, but it was directed well away from the Earth. Although surely related to the Sun's changing magnetic field, the energy mechanism that creates and sustains a solar prominence remains a topic of research.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499167232928083968

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498710910612828160

Opinion:

Grand Solar Minimum in 2021 will apparently bring the big freeze to planet earth

Get ready for the big freeze, famine and global devastation. We have about two years left. In 2021 the Mini Ice Age will hit as Sunspot Cycle number 25 kicks in. Or so some visionary scientists are…

julescape.wordpress.com

 

[Ca.]

Oppenheimer Ranch Project @Diamondthedave
Manam Erupts to 50.000ft - Arctic Blast Threaten Records - NWS Rates

SpaceWeather.com
Wednesday, Mar. 9, 2022

POSSIBLE CME IMPACT THIS WEEK: A faint CME (movie) might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on March 10th. It left the sun on March 7th following the eruption of a magnetic filament; no sunspots were involved. The glancing blow could spark minor G1-class geomagnetic storms later this week. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

A YEAR OF SUNSPOTS, SOUTH VS. NORTH: In late 2020, Indian amateur astronomer Soumyadeep Mukherjee decided to photograph the same sunspot for 7 days in a row. At the end of the week, he found he couldn't stop. "I kept going and photographed the sun for 365 days in a row," says Mukherjee.​

​

"This image is a blend of all the pictures I took," he says. "It shows every sunspot that crossed the solar disk from Dec. 25, 2020, to Dec. 31, 2021. Only 6 days are missing due to complete cloud cover."

The composite image reveals two things: First, all of the sunspots are concentrated in two bands--one north and one south of the sun's equator. Second, the south seems busier than the north. The southern band is wider and there are more sunspots.

Sunspot data from the Royal Observatory of Belgium confirm the assymetry. Take a look at this plot of hemispheric sunspot numbers:​

​

Red represents an excess of southern sunspots, while green denotes the opposite. The beginning of Solar Cycle 25 is all red, in accord with Mukherjee's photo.

Solar physicists have long known that the two hemispheres of the sun don't always operate in sync. The great Solar Cycle 19 of the 1960s, for instance, was mostly northern, an assymetry which persisted for more than 15 years. More recently, Solar Cycle 24 had a strong southern peak in the year 2014. Other cycles have been a seesaw mix of north and south with only razor-thin margins separating the two.

How will Solar Cycle 25 shape up? So far it is speaking to us with a southern accent. Stay tuned, y'all.​

CME Impact Should Produce Clear Signal
Premieres Mar 9, 2022

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501203713310007298

Eruption occurs at Manam volcano in Papua New Guinea It has reached over 15,000 m https://youtu.be/EdC_ZxygaKY #Manam #噴火 #津波 #パプアニューギニア噴火 #パプワ #噴火 #パプアニューギニア #大規模噴火

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501482482818064384

Earthquake swarm East China Sea region.. West coast California update.. Tuesday night 3/8/2022​

TheEarthMaster

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501945886301044748

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501928426315333633

March is often a month of wild temperature swings, and this year has been no different. AccuWeather forecasters say that harsh cold will send temperatures trending downward through the remainder of this week in the Plains and Midwest with the official start of spring less than two weeks away.

The cold air began to pour into the northern Plains on Thursday. Minneapolis is forecast to top out at only 28 degrees Fahrenheit Thursday, and while that is not harsh by Minnesota standards, the normal high for this time of year in the Twin Cities is around 39 degrees as average temperatures begin to climb at a rapid pace in March.

Temperatures across the central U.S. ranged from the single digits in the northern Plains to the upper 50s along the Gulf Coast on Thursday morning, March 10, 2022.
However, it will take until Friday for the truly frigid air to arrive.

Minneapolis will struggle to reach the mid-teens on Friday as temperatures remain about 25 degrees below normal. The mercury is likely to plunge below zero on Friday night, forecasters say.

The cold air will not only affect the northernmost states and has already set record lows as of Thursday morning.

Denver set a record low of 7 below zero Fahrenheit, breaking the previous daily mark for March 10 of 3 below zero that had stood since 1932.

"Below-normal temperatures will surge across the South Central states on Friday and Saturday as the jet stream dips southward and ushers in a blast of Arctic air," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer.

One such location will be Wichita, Kansas. After each of the first five days of the month had temperatures 76 degrees or higher, the mercury each day since then in Wichita has failed to top 50 degrees. Typically, a high temperature of 57 degrees is expected heading into the middle of March.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP

Snow is expected on Thursday night, and temperatures will not recover much on Friday.

"Residents around Wichita can expect highs in the middle 30s on Friday," stated Smithmyer.

The Arctic plunge will even reach the Lone Star State. Highs have reached 80 degrees twice already this month in Dallas, but temperatures will be nowhere near that as the week winds down.

The forecast high of 68 degrees on Thursday, very close to the normal high of 66, will be a distant memory in Dallas by Friday. In fact, some wintry precipitation is expected.

"Temperatures on Friday will only be in the 30s with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow in the forecast, followed by a freeze-up Friday night," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

With the sun getting higher in the sky and the days getting longer as March presses on, cold air does not often have the same staying power that it would have a month or two ago. The temperature roller coaster will continue into the weekend as warmth begins to build.

Residents in Wichita, and other cities such as Springfield, Missouri, will experience daytime temperatures in the 60s as a more forgiving pattern develops across the Central states near the end of this weekend, according to Smithmyer.

While this may be the final cold push of the season in Texas, snow and cold can persist well into April and early May farther to the north. However, it appears that temperatures in much of the Plains and Midwest will range 5-15 degrees above normal for most of next week.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501658918585516032

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501924219046842369

 

[Ca.]

Meanwhile in Spain:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503042121292464134

Since yesterday, a meter of snow has sometimes fallen in the Cévennes! Impressive images of Mont Lozère this Sunday afternoon. ( © Samuel Martinez)

Elevation	1,702 m (5,584 ft)
Coordinates	44°25′34″N 03°44′21″E

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502872090864766978

This Sunday: rain from the north in Languedoc (floods in the Hérault)! Snow on the Massif Central. http://meteo-express.com/previsions

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502780732049174533

CNN

Over 25 million people are under freeze warnings across the South this morning behind yesterday's winter storm that dumped around foot of snow across portions of the Northeast.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503004235654479881

73-car pileup occurred amid whiteout conditions in Pennsylvania, drivers said A massive winter storm wreaked havoc on roadways Saturday as it dumped heavy snow and unleashed damaging winds up and down the East Coast.
Mar. 12, 2022 8:36 PM PDT

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503745211842846730

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503431362442764296

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503755616250212358

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503770499796545536

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503409363456864257

 

[iamthatis]

From the latest Suspicious 0bservers video (March 16th), I found these two maps to be telling quite the tale.

The first is the mainstream interpretation of weather data, apparently using climate variability of the 1800's as a base (according to Ben Davidson), which distorts the average temperatures. I checked on the NOAA website, and sure enough:

​

• Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° F (0.08° C) per decade since 1880, and the rate of warming over the past 40 years is more than twice that: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade since 1981.

So this makes things look rather warm.



When a different data presentation is used, based on more recent average temperatures (1991-2020), this is what occurs on the map:



In this presentation, things are looking frosty in North America, Central Africa, China and Australia. I can't help but notice someone turned up the heat over Moscow...

 

[XPan]

From the latest Suspicious 0bservers video (March 16th), I found these two maps to be telling quite the tale.

The first is the mainstream interpretation of weather data, apparently using climate variability of the 1800's as a base (according to Ben Davidson), which distorts the average temperatures. I checked on the NOAA website, and sure enough:
So this makes things look rather warm.

View attachment 56684

When a different data presentation is used, based on more recent average temperatures (1991-2020), this is what occurs on the map:

View attachment 56685

In this presentation, things are looking frosty in North America, Central Africa, China and Australia. I can't help but notice someone turned up the heat over Moscow...

I read two years ago (i believe it was at notrickszone.com), about comparisons between various, global temperature deviation maps (present and recent past), how deceiving those can be.

E.g. the coarse grid is very sloppy and will bundle countries and regions together as if they all are (for example) too warm. And in comparison with a much finer grid, you spot interesting deviations where some areas can be colder than normal (but are not shown in maps with too coarse grids).

Of course maps who go back 100 years become even more sloppy than sloppy due to the extreme thin weather observation network around the world back then.

Surprise : Usually the finer grid maps of modern climate - are not that often used in popular articles about our climate.

So, NOAA charts etc, need to be seen with some caution. Didn’t they also change temperature series over time in order to fit the climate change agenda ?

 

[JEEP]

When a different data presentation is used, based on more recent average temperatures (1991-2020), this is what occurs on the map:

Mmm - how do you like me now?

Major Update! Antarctic Temps Spiking 90 Degrees Above Average/3 Days Now.​

 

[Vulcan59]

Tony Heller's explains the data - Cherry Picking Antarctica - Rumble

Cherry Picking Antarctica

In a few hours the sun will set at the South Pole for six months and Penguins will struggle to keep their eggs alive through the winter. But climate scientists and journalists say Antarctica is burnin

rumble.com

 

[XPan]

Tony Heller's explains the data - Cherry Picking Antarctica - Rumble

Cherry Picking Antarctica

In a few hours the sun will set at the South Pole for six months and Penguins will struggle to keep their eggs alive through the winter. But climate scientists and journalists say Antarctica is burnin

rumble.com

I love your reference to Tony Heller, Vulcan59 !

Because as I just read JEEP’s entry about the spectacular warming over Antarctica - - my first thought that flashed into my mind was… I wonder if Tony Heller might have written about It, too. And BAM, he did !

Setting the records straight, explaining that what looks so deep red, isn’t so warm after all (at -30°C), putting things straight. Great guy, this Tony Heller. I’ve been following him since 2016/17. He is incredible in explaining and puncturing official advertising scams revolving climate, weather and sea levels.

It was several years ago I believe, when Swedish politicians where officially stating that the warming over Greenland and North Pole had become so extreme during winter… but completely failed to mention / to show / that even if the weather can be “milder” at times during winter, the temperatures were still way below freezing. So, no melting during winter… Kind of the same phenomena over Antartica right now, failing to tell the public, that the temperatures are, no matter deviation, still a whopping -30°C.

 

[JEEP]

Tony Heller's explains the data

It should be noted that the person who posted the youtube absolutely doesn't associate the spike as being ACC or AGW and gives his ideas of what's happening starting at 0:43. He discusses the "scientific" data released and rejects the human caused climate change conclusion, but probably doesn't suspect that the data could be falsified. He may think the scientists are wrong but not that they are conniving liars. Nonetheless, the second map posted by @iamthatis shows more spots of above average temps than those of below average temps with an eastern area showing the warmest above average temps - not sure if that's the same area with the spike:

I'm inclined to believe volcanic activity is responsible for the spike. And Tony Heller is hilarious - gotta love his debunking!

 

[iamthatis]

It should be noted that the person who posted the youtube absolutely doesn't associate the spike as being ACC or AGW and gives his ideas of what's happening starting at 0:43. He discusses the "scientific" data released and rejects the human caused climate change conclusion, but probably doesn't suspect that the data could be falsified. He may think the scientists are wrong but not that they are conniving liars. Nonetheless, the second map posted by @iamthatis shows more spots of above average temps than those of below average temps with an eastern area showing the warmest above average temps - not sure if that's the same area with the spike:

I'm inclined to believe volcanic activity is responsible for the spike. And Tony Heller is hilarious - gotta love his debunking!

Apparently in previous cold times, not every region on the planet becomes cold. The cold is not a uniform phenomenon. Some areas even warm up, according to this article by Cap Allon:

Also not addressed is NASA’s longstanding research showing that while Earth’s overall temperature trends colder during prolonged bouts of low solar activity (such as today’s descent into the next Grand Solar Minimum, which likely commenced during Solar Cycle 24), not all regions experience the chill. As visualized in NASA’s ‘Maunder Minimum Reconstruction Map’ (shown below), areas such as the Arctic, Alaska and the North Atlantic actually warm during spells of otherwise ‘global’ cooling.

Temp change between 1780 (a year of normal solar activity) and 1680 (a year within the depths of the Maunder Minimum) — NASA.

So the big red zone over Moscow (in the NOAA global temp map posted above) has an historic precedent, according to Cap Allon. The difference is that the warm spot during the Maunder Minimum was over the North Atlantic. Now it appears to be over Moscow. I wonder if that pattern will remain stable as the ice age deepens?

About the Antarctic temp spike, I noticed that in the NOAA map that there is no data showing for the Arctic and Antarctic. They are simply grey. No data. Ya think that keeping track of the polar regions and reporting on them would be in their interest, no? No, no, forget about the polar regions, just enjoy been driven by your electric car to the local bug-burger and think anti-Russian thoughts...

 

[Beau]

Setting the records straight, explaining that what looks so deep red, isn’t so warm after all (at -30°C), putting things straight. Great guy, this Tony Heller. I’ve been following him since 2016/17. He is incredible in explaining and puncturing official advertising scams revolving climate, weather and sea levels.

I still think it's something that should not be dismissed (not that I'm saying you are doing that, but maybe Heller). As this tweet points out, temperature records are being broken by huge margins, which are definitely anomalies:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504857662944645120

 

[JEEP]

The cold is not a uniform phenomenon.

"Earth’s overall temperature trends colder during prolonged bouts of low solar activity (such as today’s descent into the next Grand Solar Minimum, which likely commenced during Solar Cycle 24)"

The accompanying map has all of the US in blue with Ohio and NC dark blue! The midwest bread basket along with California, Texas, and Florida won't be providing food like they used to. Will Alaska have to be stepped up for food production? The environmentalists will be going nuts!

 

[XPan]

You are right Beau

in what you point out - and no I didn’t truly intend to dismiss all of it. Realizing that when i re-read my style of expression, it sounded as if i ignored all of it. I meant by soul, that Tony Heller took the edge out of the spectacularism; e.g. shaved off what was over the top.

While it still is interesting to investigste, what exactly caused record temperatures to occur over parts of the Antartica !