The official start of winter is just over two months away, and even though many Europeans may be getting settled into fall routines, AccuWeather's team of long-range meteorologists has already pieced together an outlook for what Old Man Winter will bring to Europe this upcoming season.
Climbing electricity and gas costs across the continent are putting additional pressure on the prospect of what this winter will bring. Periods of cold weather could mean a ripple effect throughout different aspects of the European economy. It could bring long-lasting impacts to the day-to-day lives of residents as well as repercussions to tourism and commerce that can expand on a global level.
This winter season, experts say that the overall pattern will be largely influenced by
La Niña, an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the cold counterpart to El Niño. During La Niña, unusually low ocean temperatures expand across the Equatorial Pacific, which in turn creates an ocean-atmospheric feedback system that can impact weather across the globe--particularly the winter temperature and snowfall patterns.
Climatologists say La Niña is still undergoing strengthening and is predicted to continue through the rest of the autumn and winter months.
"La Niña is expected to peak in November,"
AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said, adding that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signature should return to a neutral phase -- neither La Niña or El Niño -- in January. Despite that change during the latter part of the season, atmospheric conditions should remain La Niña-like throughout the entirety of winter due to a lag between the climate phenomenon and altered weather conditions.
What does this mean for the 2022-2023 winter outlook across Europe? Since this winter is the third consecutive winter season under the influence of La Niña, this season may bring a handful of similarities to last year's winter weather. However, AccuWeather forecasters say that this year contains a rare piece of the puzzle that recent years have not.
“A triple La Niña has occurred only three times since record-keeping began, the most recent being the start of the century from 1998 to 2001,” explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert. By looking back at the few times in recent history when there were three La Niña winters in a row, forecasters can analyze these unique years and use them as part of their toolkit to help piece together what this winter may hold.
How cold will it get this season, and which areas can expect stormy conditions? AccuWeather meteorologists answer that and more in a region-by-region breakdown below.
Southern Europe to take brunt of potent storm
AccuWeather forecasters say there are indications that the general storm track this winter will often aim for southern Europe.
Locations across Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and the Balkans stand a greater chance of receiving more frequent rain and wind-driven events than other parts of the continent. In some ways, residents from the Iberian Peninsula to southeastern Europe could see some similarities to the previous two years.
This could mean an increased risk for heavy rain events, especially in southeastern France, north-central Italy and the western Balkans. Those living in cities, such as
Venice, Italy, should closely monitor any storms in the area this winter due to their location's vulnerability to flooding. A dominant southerly storm track across Europe would also mean the potential for higher snowfall along the southern slopes of the Alps, explained Roys.
Windstorms are known for bringing damaging winds, torrential rainfall and even unloading snow in higher terrain. Last year, many of the named storm events in Spain and Portugal occurred later in the windstorm season in the springtime. However, numerous impacts from Storm Blas were felt during the first half of November across portions of eastern Spain and southern France.
Blas was named by Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET), the Spanish Meteorological Agency, on Nov. 5, 2021. The storm spread heavy rain and gusty winds to the eastern coast of Spain before tracking over the western Mediterranean and bringing additional rain and wind to parts of Algeria and France.
Blas was named by Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET), the Spanish Meteorological Agency, on Nov. 5, 2021. The storm spread heavy rain and gusty winds to the eastern coast of Spain before tracking over the western Mediterranean and bringing additional rain and wind to parts of Algeria and France.
Two snowmen frame the snow-draped dome of St. Peter Basilica. The snow blanketed ancient arches in the Roman Forum. (AP Photo/Alberto Pellaschiar)
Mountainous areas that can have higher snowfall totals this winter over the Iberian Peninsula include the Cantabrian Mountains, Central System and Pyrenees Mountains across northern and central Spain. The upcoming pattern could lead to ideal stretches of weather for area ski resorts and winter vacation destinations. However, low-lying areas outside the higher terrain will also stand a chance of getting normal to slightly above-average snowfall amounts as temperatures drop throughout the winter.
Following a remarkably dry summer in some regions with periods of sweltering temperatures, the yields from crops such as maize (corn), sunflower, sugar beet, potatoes and soybeans took a direct hit, according to the European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS. Experts have noted that the milder weather and periods of much-needed rainfall that arrived in some regions by late summer came too late for it to benefit many summer crops significantly. The prospects for this winter's growth and the upcoming harvest have moved into the spotlight.
Europeans have rising concerns that dry soil and depleted water reservoirs across southern Europe will need above-average winter precipitation to be restored. With this in mind, winter is typically the wettest season across this part of the continent, and the pattern favors rounds of unsettled weather that could help to put a dent in the ongoing drought. However, it is not expected that the upcoming stormy pattern could completely erase the drought. It may take years of above-average rainfall seasons to replenish the current low water levels.
Temperatures will likely trend near normal to slightly above normal across southern Europe this winter. However, periods of unsettled weather can be accomp
anied by spells of cooler weather, according to Reppert.
United Kingdom and Ireland can face cold bursts
By the start of December 2021, parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland had already observed some impacts from windstorms, including the named storms Aurore, Arwen and Barra. Storm Arwen was the notable storm that
trapped 61 concertgoers inside the Tan Hill Inn, England's highest pub, for several days in late November 2021.
Last winter in mid-February,
Storm Eunice brought substantial damage to infrastructure across the United Kingdom. The O2 Area's roof in
London was badly torn by extreme wind gusts during this period. The Needles, a landmark in southern England, observed a wind gust of 122 mph from Storm Eunice, which the U.K. Met Office confirmed as the
highest wind gust ever reported in England. To put the strength of winds into perspective, a Category 3 major hurricane in the Atlantic has winds ranging from 111 to 120 mph.