The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

Meanwhile in the fruit basket of my own province:
Over a few valleys from this fruit basket, and just over the midway point of October, temps here plummeted to -10 c and -15 c over a number of days, and overnight, and warmed during the day; somewhat. The snow also came to the valley while green leaves were in the transition of a normal fall and froze green. The cold (and snow) then moved West hitting the fruit basket you mention last week. It was January in October.

The mountains here are now pregnant with snow - a good month earlier than usual. Can even recall certain December times when the bears were desperately want for snow in the mountains to bury and hibernate in.

The Beginnings of a Mini - Ice Age - COAST TO COAST AM - September 23, 2020
Good talk, c.a.!

Robert Felix: glaciers rising, sea water lowering...
 
After catching up on last few pages of this thread, I thought it important to share a site I found a little while ago. The site is plateclimatology.com by James E Kamis.
From his About page:
James Edward Kamis is a Geologist and AAPG member of 41 years and who has always been fascinated by the connection between Geology and Climate. Years of research and observation have convinced him that the Earth’s Heat Flow Engine, which drives the outer crustal plates, is also an important driver of the Earth’s climate.
He received a BS in Geology from Northern Illinois University in 1973 and an MS in Geology from Idaho State University in 1976. He is proud to have worked for mining and oil companies that practiced responsible harvesting of materials necessary to sustain human life; Becker Industries, ARCO, Cross Timbers, Texaco, Fina, Union 76, and BTA Oil Producers LLC. He is currently retired.
James has developed the Plate Climatology Theory entirely on his own non-working hour time and with no funding from BTA Oil Producers LLC or any other entity.
He is also proud to state that he is an actively practicing Christian who believes science and spirituality are completely compatible. However, he developed the Plate Climatology Theory entirely based on scientific observations, geological intuition and inclusion of many published scientific research articles, many geological in nature.
The Plate Climatology Theory is built on the premise that there is a strong connection between geology and climate. The theory is intended to promote interaction between many branches of science primarily; geology, climatology, meteorology, biology, and oceanography. As such, it is not intended to debunk the Global Warming Theory, rather it is intended to offer a alternative theory that explains observed natural phenomenon.
The basic tenants of the Plate Climatology are sound; however it is a working theory which like all theories will likely need modification. This is invited, because that is how science should operate, formulate a good theory and then put it to many tests.
The development and intent of this theory is in no way politically motivated. It is not an attempt to demean any particular political group, university, government agency or group of scientists. James does in fact believe that climate scientists have been “atmospherically” biased in their interpretation of many observed climate trends and climate related. He believes that the vast majority of these scientists are highly skilled and dedicated individuals. James does not subscribe to utilizing his Plate Climatology Theory as a political or personal weapon to demean others. They have the right to disagree with this theory.

...how refreshing to find such an open-minded scientist! Kamis' theory doesn't challenge any of the working theories previously presented in this thread (he sounds sooooo humble, or maybe just cautious), but in my opinion, this information greatly enhances and fleshes out all current working climate change theories.
The Adapt2030 video approached the subject of Gakkel Ridge in the Artic Basin being possibly/partly responsible for anomalies on Nullschool maps. I thought he was going to expand on it and include Kamis' findings in the Arctic, but stopped short of the big reveal.
Davidson, of Suspicious Observers, has great science on spaceweather effects on climate and earthquake activity, but is missing this geological symptom which could also be contributing to climate change. If the solar activity can contribute to earthquake activity, why not to vulcanism on plate boundaries, as well? Also, Davidson credits the solar wind exclusively for the increasing ozone hole over Antarctica with nary a mention to the increased volcanic activity in western Antarctica. Activity that releases ozone depleting CFCs. (CFCs were one of the causes of global warming transmitted by the C's, but didnt' indicate whether CFCs were man made or "natural"; but Niall shares a great article in this post, suggesting the latter.)

Kamis' hour long video, The Plate Climatology Theory, fills in a LOT of gaps as he shares his expertise in geology and educates us on what's going on under the ice and waves?
He not only covers what he knows about the ocean floor up at the North pole, but also covers the Antarctic areas, The Galapogos Island area, as well as the Pacific Ring of fire and the origin of La Nina/El Nino occurrences.

I highly recommend his video to anyone interested in learning about this highly dismissed player(submarine volcanism) in climate change theories. I'm not promoting it as a complete theory, but rather a BIG piece of this huge puzzle which could help make other theories more comprehensive and converge with each other.

 

80% of Russia is Buried in Snow​

On October 30, “very cold weather was established” in north Siberia, reports hmn.ru. Unusually chilly lows of -20C (-4F) were suffered in Salekhard which resulted in hard frosts. Even during the day, highs in the region only climbed to -12C (10.4F) — readings that are some 16C below the seasonal average.

In addition to the cold, approximately 80% of the transcontinental nation is buried under early season snow — a feat rarely achieved this early in the season (Oct 29) since records began in 1998, and one particularly impressive given the far-west’s lingering warm setup (a phenomenon driven by the positioning of the jet stream, not a trace gas in the atmosphere).

Looking at data from Rutger’s Global Snow Lab (shown below), the pack also descends as far south as China, and as far west as Scandinavia. This impressive cover has contributed to the Northern Hemisphere, as a whole, experiencing a record-breaking snowy start to the season.

In fairness, it must be said that there is still no snow either in Moscow or in St. Petersburg (as of November 3, 2020).

So in St. Petersburg, last October became the warmest over the past 100 years (+ 9.1C average temperature) and one of the warmest in history (+ 9.3C was in 1775).

In Moscow, October 2020 became the warmest in the history of observations (+ 9.2C average temperature, norm + 5C)

November is also promised warmer than normal, but the weather has become so unpredictable that it is impossible to say what will happen in 10 minutes outside the window (sun, rain, wind).

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In addition, it is necessary to note the next tropical storm in the Atlantic. The 28th tropical storm for 2020 was named Eta.

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On Monday November 2, Eta developed into a Category 4 hurricane in the western Caribbean. Eta is expected to have a disastrous impact on Central American countries due to its initial strength and very slow displacement.
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Eta has a rare intensity for the end of the season. Only three Category 4 hurricanes (Lenny in 1999, Michelle in 2001 and Paloma in 2008) and one Category 5 hurricane (Cuban Hurricane 1932) occurred in the Atlantic during November ...

Combined, Eta can have the same catastrophic impact as Hurricane Mitch in 1998. "Mitch" wandered around Central America for several days. More than 10 thousand people died due to the catastrophic flood.

In terms of the number of tropical storms, the 2020 season caught up with the record 2005 season. Eta was the 28th tropical storm and 12th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season.

In many regions of Central America up to 600-900 mm of precipitation is predicted (more than in Moscow for a year!). Up to 1200-1500 mm is expected in the mountains. This amount of precipitation can lead to catastrophic flash floods and devastating landslides.
 
From Electroverse:

Record smashing snow and ice storms cause 'havoc' in Alaska and the Yukon


Record volumes of snow and ice began building Sunday afternoon across Alaska and NW Canada, and continued accumulating through Monday. The unprecedented storms soon strangled roads, knocked the power out for tens of thousands, and forced the closure of schools and businesses.

A boundary of cold Arctic air moved farther south than forecasters had originally expected, dramatically dropping temperatures across Alaska and the Yukon.

...Snowfall records were set across the state of Alaska, including in Juneau.

"On Nov. 1, Juneau Airport broke a record when it got 7.6 inches of snow," said NWS meteorologist Kimberly Vaughan, a reading that busted the old mark of 6.6 inches.

...In Fairbanks, located a short 17 hours drive to the NW, the 22 below zero observed at the city's International Airport marks November 2's third coldest temperature in recorded history. Only 1907's 33 below and the 24 below logged in both 1992 and 1975 beat yesterday's reading.

Meanwhile, the NWS reported lows of 25 below in North Pole and Manley Hot Springs, 27 below for Eagle and the Goldstream Valley, 24 below in Wiseman, 30 below in Circle and a whopping 40 degrees below zero in Chicken.

...Doug Lundquist, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, has worked in B.C. and Yukon for over three decades, but says he's "never quite seen a storm like this."

On Monday alone, accumulating snow in Whitehorse topped 47 cm (1.54 ft) — an amount that far exceeds daily records for November, which Lundquist said range from 5 to 15 cm (2 to 6 inches). In fact, it turns out that Monday's snow was Whitehorse's highest daily snowfall for any day in any month!



 
Atlantic hurricane season breaks records: storm 30 has formed - Iota



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According to the National Hurricane Center in the United States, on November 13, in the center of the Caribbean Sea, another tropical storm, named "Iota", developed from a low pressure area.

Currently, the weather system is located north of Colombia and is moving south-west at a speed of about 5 km / h, wind speed in gusts reaches about 18 m / s. Based on forecasts, on November 15, Iota will intensify to a hurricane, coming ashore on November 16 near the Nicaraguan-Honduras border.

This season of hurricanes in the Atlantic has already broken all records - 30 named storms and an ended list of names for hurricanes, which forced meteorologists to start using letters of the Greek alphabet. The record was previously set in 2005 - 28 storms.

However, the season is not over yet. The 31st storm will be named Kappa, and the next will be named Lambda. The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but Atlantic hurricane history has seen tropical weather systems occur after that date.

PS Let's not forget that the recently ended hurricane Eta killed more than 160 people, with Guatemala and Honduras hit harder than others. And another hurricane Iota will strike in the same place.
 
The weather in Russia turned upside down: in Arkhangelsk +7, in the Rostov region −21

An unusual temperature distribution was noted on November 19–20 in the European part of Russia. It was much warmer in the Russian North than in the south of the country. In particular, in Arkhangelsk the maximum thermometer showed +7, while in Rostov-on-Don it was only -3.

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The difference of 10 degrees was a consequence of the transfer of tropical heat to the north of Russia and the transfer of the Siberian cold to the south of the country. We reported on the exit of the former tropical Atlantic hurricane "ex-Eta" to the north of Europe. The posttropical heat wave involved in it brought heat records to the Northwestern District. On November 19, in St. Petersburg (+10.9), Arkhangelsk (+7.0), Petrozavodsk (+9.8) and Pskov (+11.0), the absolute temperature maximums were updated.

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In the south of Russia, on the contrary, a cold continental anticyclone with the center in the Trans-Volga region ruled. The eastern atmospheric process brought 20-degree frosts to the region!

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In Vladivostok, about 30 mm of precipitation fell in 1.5 days. There, something similar happened to what happened not so long ago in the United States, when a cold front from Canada reached the southern United States and caused glaciation on plants and trees.

There are many photos from Vladivostok, I could not insert them into the message - Владивосток стал хрустальным: фотообзор
 

POSSIBLE CME IMPACT: A CME launched by yesterday's M4.4-class solar flare might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 1-2, according to NOAA analysts. The glancing blow, if it occurs, is expected to cause no more than minor G1-class geomagnetic storms with auroras over high-northern latitudes. Scroll down for the full story. Instant geomagnetic storm alerts: SMS Text.

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): Yesterday (Nov. 29th at 1311UT), Earth-orbiting satellites detected the biggest solar flare in more than 3 years. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme-ultraviolet movie of the M4.4 category blast:

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway.
The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.7% High
48-hr change: +0.8%
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Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 30 Nov 2020 @ 1700 UT



Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020


We are coming in December which also means entering the meteorological winter! This year, December is set to get off to a cold and hectic start. A bit like the image of three years ago in 2017, although every situation is never the same ...

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The weather will change from Tuesday afternoon with the arrival of a disturbance from the north, driven by a cold drop in altitude (-30 ° c to ~ 5500m and -4 ° c to ~ 1500m). This disturbance will be of low intensity with a rain-snow limit which will drop to 1000m on Tuesday evening.

Wednesday morning, the cooling will be important under the influence of this cold drop and it will snow until the Pyrenean foothills, in the form of showers from 500 / 600m. No large quantities to expect, with ground resistance from 700m and cumulative amounts which should be around 5 to 10cm above 1000m, or even 15cm, especially on the Ariège side. These flurries will gradually subside on Wednesday afternoon. Note that the ends of the chain will rather stay apart. The tramontane will blow between 60 and 80km / h in its domain.

Thursday will be a day of transition between two disturbances. A little warmth will occur with a 0 ° C isotherm rising to 1900m in the afternoon. The sky will be divided everywhere between clouds and clearings.

From Friday, the famous descent of maritime polar air that we spoke about in the previous article, will land in the country. This should bring some winter hustle and bustle into the entire weekend. However, the deadline is approaching and many uncertainties are still relevant, especially regarding the accumulation of precipitation and snow in the mountains!

This polar descent indeed gives a hard time to our models! The placement of low pressure excavation in the British Isles is still poorly understood and secondary excavation in the Mediterranean over the weekend remains possible.

All this will therefore have repercussions on the sensitive weather in the Pyrenees with more or less heterogeneous rainfall.

We retain two scenarios for the moment:

The first sees a northwesterly flow penetrating enough inland which would cause heavy snowfall in the mountains up to fairly low altitude (~ 800m). The western Pyrenees could experience significant amounts of snowfall in the mountains: 50cm to 1 meter of snow. But these accumulations would be clearly decreasing by going east with no more than 15cm at Font-Romeu, for example.

The second scenario envisages much more modest and scattered snowfall until the weekend with around 10 to 20cm generally on the massif. The dynamism would indeed be pushed off the ocean in this context.

Within 48 hours, we will normally have more information to anticipate this first real winter assault of the season.

See you soon…The Pyrénées Weather Team


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Russian Emergencies Ministry warned of abnormal cooling in Chelyabinsk region.
The Southern Urals for five days will become an area of abnormal cooling. According to the press center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia in the Chelyabinsk region, from 1 to 5 December in some areas of the region is expected abnormally cold weather with an average daily air temperature of seven degrees below normal.

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"There is an increase in the probability of emergencies caused by accidents at facilities and power lines, emergency shutdown of life support systems in case of power supply failure, the growth of fires in the residential sector, an increase in cases of general overcooling and frostbite, an increase in the number of accidents, - predict the Ministry of Emergency Situations. - Children and elderly people are in the risk group: they are most exposed to hypothermia. In older people, as a result of certain diseases, thermoregulation can be disrupted, and in children this function of the body is still imperfect.

By the end of the week in the Chelyabinsk region it is predicted up to minus 27 degrees in some areas. In Chelyabinsk, the coldest will be the environment when the thermometer column falls below 25 degrees Celsius.
Source: МЧС предупредило об аномальном похолодании в Челябинской области
 
From the BBC...I'm wondering why this would happen? It's not as if they didn't know when the satellites would need replacing! The timing seems suspicious. Is this really about a 'gap' or are they finding early excuses for communication interruption caused by solar/cosmic activity?

 
From the BBC...I'm wondering why this would happen? It's not as if they didn't know when the satellites would need replacing! The timing seems suspicious. Is this really about a 'gap' or are they finding early excuses for communication interruption caused by solar/cosmic activity?

Upon further reading, the 2-5 year gap they state seems like a worst case scenario if no action was taken to remedy it. There are 2 satellites right now patrolling the ice caps: CryoSat-2 and IceSat-2. According to the article, CryoSat-2 will not last much longer given that it's way past its operation time and also has battery/fuel issues. IceSat-2 however, is still within its design life of 3 years (launched in 2018). However, seeing as how CryoSat-2 has outlived its design life for about 6 years now, it seems safe to say that IceSat-2 will be quite alright.

Back in late September, a deal was made between Airbus Defense and the European Space Agency to develop a polar-monitoring satellite nicknamed CRISTAL. Perhaps this is the replacement to the old CryoSat-2 and is their response to this potential gap.
 
After sunset on December 21st, 2020, the start of the winter solstice, Jupiter and Saturn will look like a double planet. This has not been seen since March 4, 1226. Robert Felix mentions in his book: "Not by Fire but by Ice" that these alignments cause what is known as a solar retrograde cycle. From the book:

On earth, the solar retrograde cycle triggers fluctuations in geomagnetic-field intensity while causing abrupt – and extreme – changes in climate. The changes are so severe that at every other beat of the cycle – approximately every 360 years – the earth plunges into a Little Ice Age.
This cycle has plagued our planet for hundreds of millions of years.
“The 360-year Little Ice Age cycle shows up in the Morrison Formation clear back in the Jurassic,” says research geologist Jack Sauers. “It correlates with the fall of the Roman Empire. It correlates with the fall of the Sumerian Empire. It correlates with the fall of the Ottoman Empire (when Ghengis Kahn swept out of the north). It correlates with the fall of the Greek Empire. And it is now coinciding with the collapse of several modern-day empires.”

Unfortunately, the last beat of the Little Ice Age cycle occurred almost exactly 360 years ago. “If this pattern holds,” said Fairbridge and Sanders, “then a comparable Little Ice Age can be expected to begin . . . early in the twenty-first century.”

But wait. It gets worse. Multiply the Little Ice Age cycle by four, and you get a 1440-year cycle of even harsher climate conditions. This cycle, discovered in the Greenland Ice Sheet, was reported by Paul Mayewski et al. in 1997. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 30 Nov 1997)
The 1440-year cycle brings with it “dramatic and rapid” changes in climate (dry in some areas, wet in others) and worldwide glacier expansion. The cycle appears to be related to internal oscillations in the ocean-climate system, says Mayewski (which I attribute to underwater volcanism, triggered by changes in geomagnetic intensity, triggered by the changes in the sun).
Whatever causes it, a similar 1440-year cycle has been found in North Atlantic deep sea cores (Bond et al., Science, 14 Nov 1997). Our climate plunged into frigid conditions about 4200 years ago, said Bond. Similar declines occurred about 2800 years ago and 1400 years ago, which means – you guessed it – that the next beat of the 1400-year cycle is due.

As if that weren’t enough, multiply the 1440-year cycle by eight, and you come up with 11,520, which is suspiciously close to the 11,500-year ice-age cycle.

So here we sit. The next beat of the 179-year solar retrograde cycle is due. The next beat of the 360-year Little Ice Age cycle is due. The next beat of the 1440-year ice-age cycle is due. The next beat of the 11,500-year ice-age cycle is due. The next beat of the 100,000-year ice-age cycle is due . . . and we’re worried about global warming?
 
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