The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

Voyageur

Ambassador
Ambassador
FOTCM Member
In the lower parts of the interior of BC the thermometer decided to announce its winter drop over the last few days. Snow has been building at higher elevations, and now steadily inching its way down slope. Frost this morning followed by light snow - cold winds. Tomorrow is to be colder, so stripped the greenhouse and covered some flowers with hope, which will likely not 'show' again. The little chart on my phone shows - 3 c in the am tomorrow, and by Sunday it comes in at lovely -13 c, with snow (great :rolleyes:). Halloween is weeks away, so will have to see if the weather become more entrenched or it eases off for a charitable late October and early November (there is more to do outside before the crunch of winter).

Seems just the other week it was wildfires and dry furnace heat; all forgotten now.
 

Lukasz

Jedi
Early snow in Polish mountains. Biggest since 10 years.


At least 20 centimeters of snow has fallen. What fell from the roof totally blocked us and we just can't go down - said Janusz, the owner of one of the guesthouses. He added that the snow is very wet. - There hasn't been so much snow for 10 years as I am here yet - he said.
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes
First published: 28 April 2015 A. C. Maycock 55-69 minutes

Current space weather NOAA Saturday, Oct. 17, 2020
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY: Departing active region AR2775 unleashed a pair of C-class solar flares on Oct. 16th. The strongest (C3.5) propelled a cloud of plasma into space; it will not hit Earth. UV radiation from the flares briefly ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing minor shortwave radio brownouts over South America: map. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.




Just a lot of hokum. Just speculation with lots of red flags. Buzz words, drought, heat etc. equals Climate pron 101 vs Reality.

U.S. Winter Outlook: Cooler North, warmer South with ongoing La Nina
October 15, 2020 Weather Climate climate outlooks winter Snip
Persistent drought dominates the Western landscape
NOAA’s winter forecast for the U.S. favors warmer, drier conditions across the southern tier of the U.S., and cooler, wetter conditions in the North, thanks in part to an ongoing La Nina. Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — are also closely monitoring persistent drought during the winter months ahead, with more than 45% of the continental U.S. now experiencing drought.

"NOAA's timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts are the result of improved satellite observations, more detailed computer forecast modeling, and expanding supercomputing capacity," said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. "From expansive and multi-hazard winter storms to narrow but intense lake effect snow, NOAA will provide the necessary information to keep communities safe."



 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member



 

treesparrow

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Here's an interesting take on the latest snowy October situation developing in Canada by a local meteorologist -

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'Get your shovelling practice in': Southern Manitoba snow dump could be here to stay

Unseasonably cold temperatures mean October melt might not be forthcoming, Environment Canada says

Winnipeggers awoke Wednesday morning to snow blanketing rooftops and roads, and unseasonably cold weather means the white stuff might not be going away before spring.

"Unfortunately, with five or six centimetres and with our below-normal temperatures looking like it's going to continue at least until Halloween, it's probably a pretty good bet that the snow is going to stick around here," said Chris Stammers, a meteorologist with Environment Canada.

"Get your shovelling practice in."

Many Winnipeg roads and Manitoba highways were covered in ice and snow ahead of rush hour, the provincial highway conditions map said.

A crash closed Highway 1 at the Portage la Prairie bypass, between Highway 240 and Angle Road, but it reopened around 9:30 a.m. A semi-trailer truck was seen being pulled from a ditch in the area.

There were five to eight centimetres of snow in Winnipeg, and six to eight centimetres from the Dauphin area south to the U.S.-Canada border.

It's normal to get snow in October, but it often melts away. Stammers recalled that when Winnipeg got walloped with over 30 centimetres during a Thanksgiving weekend snowstorm last year, it disappeared before winter later set in.

With temperatures around 10 C below normal for this time of year, he isn't confident Winnipeg will be snow-free again in 2020.

"When the temperatures are that far below normal at this time of year, any snowfall is probably going to stick," he said. "That part of it is unprecedented, but the fact that we're getting snow in October is not really."

There is a chance of more snow on Thursday, Stammers said.

 

N1mTzo

Jedi
On October 20, a thunderstorm passed in Crete (Greece), accompanied by heavy rain and hail - snowdrifts appeared on the roads and streets.
The main blow of the elements fell on Heraklion, Chania and Malia - the inhabitants of these cities woke up in the middle of the night due to the noise of the rain. Greek media showed footage of the main highway on the island, covered in white snowdrifts from hail, and workers shoveling rainfall from the streets of the coastal town of Malia.

In addition, 3745 lightning strikes on the island of Crete and around it, of which 337 were on land and 3409 were at sea.










 

Gary

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
From the Washington Post.

Rare October ice storm hits Oklahoma, knocks out power to 300,000

* A disruptive and dangerous ice storm is underway in Oklahoma, with ice storm warnings plastering the map and more than 300,000 people without power.

* It was the first time that the National Weather Service in either Norman or Tulsa had issued an ice storm warning during the month of October, and the pre-Halloween glaze was the worst ice storm to strike at any time of year in at least five years.

* Oklahoma City Memorial and Oklahoma Forestry Services crews were scrambling to save the "Survivor Tree," an American elm at the Oklahoma City National Memorial. The monument honors the 168 people who lost their lives at the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in a terrorist bombing on April 19, 1995.

* The time of year, when trees are still fully-leafed and vegetation is somewhat verdant, means the ice event is even more disruptive, since there is greater surface area on trees where ice can accrete. That allows more weight to build up, making it easier for limbs and branches to collapse.

* The cause of the ice storm is a narrow layer of cold air at the surface below a mile in altitude. At 7,800 feet, it was nearly 47 degrees Tuesday morning over Oklahoma City, yet temperatures at ground level have remained below freezing since midmorning Monday. That permits liquidwater to fall and hit the ground, quickly freezing on contact.


 

HyperdimensionalApe

The Force is Strong With This One
Arctic Sea Ice is not freezing In October for the first time since measurements began, now having an unknown effect on weather development towards Winter

Arctic sea ice melt season usually lasts from March till September. After reaching the minimum extent in September, sea ice starts to grow back in October. But this year, the growth is much slower than last year, with almost no growth in some places.
Growth has obviously begun since mid-September, but the rate was rather weak and is not increasing with time, evident by the recent daily increase rate on the image below. At this point, the daily growth should slowly increase over time, but we can see the daily growth area is not increasing and has rather been almost decreasing over time.
Also looking at the raw temperatures, we can see the eastern Arctic ocean is actually in positive surface temperatures, which means a low to zero chance of freezing over at this point. In normal conditions, almost the entire Arctic ocean should be at or below the freezing point – 0°C (black color) by the end of October.

This citations are basicially just an intro to the article, there is a lot more. Basicially this could cause harsh winters in Europe and North America, and as I've read from an article from my country that broadcasted this, it says that this is causing temperatures 20 °C (68 F) below average in some parts of the U.S.

What about Winter 2020/2021? As we head towards winter, the connection/effect of the lack of sea ice is getting blurred or not so clear. There is a known effect on the jet stream, as we discussed. But when winter arrives, we have a lot of external factors that mask or reverse a potential sea ice effect.

The first factor is that by the time winter arrives, the Arctic sea ice is already regrown to a certain extent, not exposing so much (or none) open water. The second factor is the Stratospheric Polar Vortex. A strong polar vortex can influence the jet stream and potentially make it stronger, creating a more west-east flow and milder winter across North America and Europe.

But the strength of the polar vortex is also determined by the weather patterns, so here we have a very delicate feedback loop. The sea ice (or lack thereof) can influence the weather patterns, which affects the polar vortex, which then affects back at the jet stream and the weather patterns.

The third factor is the tropical ENSO region, with its developing La Nina phase. A La Nina has a very specific effect on the jet stream, which can override other potential effects from the sea ice. And it can also affect the polar vortex.
 

N1mTzo

Jedi
The invasion of the Canadian cold has turned the head of the American winter. Without waiting for November, she bound a huge territory in the middle of the United States with ice and frost. For example, in Denver, the temperature dropped to -15. Although a week ago in the capital of Colorado it was +25.
It's hard to believe, but at the end of October, the states with subtropical climates were hit by 20-degree frosts! In the town of Pueblo, Colorado, the thermometer showed −22.2. Frosts similar in strength were noted in Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho and Utah. The small town of Craig in Moffat County, Colorado, where the temperature was -25.6 in the early morning of October 28, became the "pole of cold" of the United States these autumn days.





In addition, yesterday there was news that

Hurricane Zeta hits Yucatan and moves towards Louisiana
Hurricane Zeta entered the territory of the Yucatan Peninsula, known all over the world for its resorts. The weather system is located northwest of the city of Tulum and moves northwestward at a speed of about 22 km / h. The wind speed reaches 112 km / h.

In the north and north-east of the peninsula, there are showers, strong gusts of wind blowing away roofs and trees, a storm warning has been announced. Waves in coastal areas reach 7 meters in height. Already today, Zeta will enter the Gulf of Mexico, moving towards the south of the United States. Tomorrow the weather system will enter the United States near the border of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Louisiana Governor John Bel Edward has declared an emergency in the state. He urged residents to prepare for the disaster, paying particular attention to the correct handling of generators. The disaster is expected to have the greatest impact on Louisiana on October 28 and 29.




PS We see that almost SIMULTANEOUSLY two forces hit the US territory, a cold from the north and a hurricane coming from the south. This is a bit like The Day After Tomorrow. I wonder what will happen on the planet this winter?
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Hurricane Zeta hits Yucatan and moves towards Louisiana

Snip: 7-9 minute Read:
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Hurricane Zeta slammed into the storm-weary Gulf Coast on Wednesday, pelting the New Orleans metro area with rain and howling winds that ripped apart buildings, knocked out power to thousands and threatened to push up to 9 feet of sea water inland in a region already pounded by multiple storms this year.

The storm killed at least one person, a 55-year-old man who a Louisiana coroner said was electrocuted by a downed power line in New Orleans, and officials said life-threatening conditions would last into Thursday.

St. Bernard Parish President Guy McInnis said emergency workers were doing their best to respond to reports of people in distress after their roofs were blown off.

“Guys, we received the brunt of Zeta, and Zeta gave us a good punch,” McInnis told WDSU-TV.

Roads were flooded near the coast, where forecasters said Zeta made landfall around Terrebone Bay near Cocodrie, an unincorporated fishing village at the end of a highway with few if any full-time residents and a marine laboratory where a building was inundated.

Streams of rainfall ran off roofs in New Orleans' famed French Quarter, signs outside bars and restaurants swayed back and forth in the wind and palm trees along Canal Street whipped furiously. Officials said a person was hospitalized with minor injuries after a structure collapsed, but further details weren’t available.

With much of the city in the dark and more than 200 trees reported down, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell implored residents to stay home and let city officials assess the damage instead of going out and doing it themselves.

More than 875,000 customers were without electricity in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, including about 350,000 in metro New Orleans. Outages were mounting quickly as the storm moved northeastward across the Deep South.

#Huracán#Zeta weakened to category 1 on the scale #Saffir -Simpson. It remains on land 70 km northeast of Hattiesburg, Mississipi, United States of America. Details in the link https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/pronosticos
 

Laurs

Jedi Master
FOTCM Member
I've took this photo two days ago while flying from Frankfurt to Zagreb, over the Austrian Alps. Seems quite extensive snow cover for this time of year.
Wow indeed a magnificent sight and you are right, it is quite extensive for this time of the year as official snowfall stats aren’t usually reported this early into the season, but numbers of up to 20cm (8 inches) were widely registered across the Austrian and Italian peaks, with some areas saying they had received 80+cm (nearing 3 feet) by Tuesday morning. In total, around 25 ski areas are already open in the Alps and Scandinavia, and the first ski areas have also opened in U.S. and Canada where recent vast accumulations of record-smashing snow has helped drive the Northern Hemisphere Total Snow Mass to a staggering 300 gigatons above the 1982-2012 average.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.


Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.


Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.
 

treesparrow

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

The capital of Libya, Tripoli has been hit by an unprecedented severe supercell storm on Tuesday, Oct 27th, 2020. The storm produced exceptionally large, *giant* hail, possibly more than 8 inches (20 cm) in diameter. The first reports indicate that hailstones could be one of the largest ever recorded on Earth!

Such hail size would definitely fit into the world's Top 3 giant hailstone events reported globally. Besides the Vivian (south Dakota) hailstorm from 2010 and the so-called 'gargantuan' hailstorm in Argentina in 2018.
 
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