The stock markets are already crashing

---- Sorry this should have been posted in the thread "The stock markets are already crashing"

"Show me the charts and I'll tell you the news"

"All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by crowd psychology."

- Bernard Baruch

Guys it's not the news that is causing the markets movements, it's the charts (which are led by crowd psychology, by the emotions of the investors).
News are only triggers (at most), and likely not even that, but simply a timed narrative purposely placed to explain the movement of the charts (that was already about to happen/'scheduled' to happen, due to crowd psychology/the state of the charts themselves).

Trump's tariffs announcement didn't cause the markets to drop. There is no such thing as news controlling the charts. Really there is not and it is a completely wrong concept and wrong way to look at the markets, charts and (economy) news. Like I said above, it's the other way around.

That suggests that Trump's tariffs is purposely placed narrative to explain (or maybe even trigger) the current behavior of the charts (which would have gone down regardless) of the markets. To what additional purpose or purposes I don't know for sure. One is likely to cause fear and uncertainty based capitulation of the market sentiment (which is already happening or has already happened), and the capitulation of the sentiment towards markets is what causes (or at least adds to) the reversal of the chart movement.

That's one of the indicators in the charts (where things originate from) that the market's are about to reverse and start to move up and likely even in an epic fashion (based on the extreme fear and uncertainty based capitulation, worse even than during the bottom of the covid crash). And maybe, just maybe (based on a mosaic like picture of different information bits in my mind) this is all just a preparation, a smoke and mirrors show, for a big, global economy transformative event, that is scheduled for this exact time period right now ('April drop dead date' anyone?), and may about to happen in May.

(L) Anyway. I'm tired. I'm ready to be done. No more questions. Is there any message or any question we should have asked that we didn't ask to, which we could get an answer here at the end?

A: Yes, things may get dire as summer approaches. Just sit tight and hang on! Goodbye.
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Has something big been planned for this May? Is a summer that's approaching a metaphorical one (including a summer of the markets)?

This is one of the good/informed chart analysts/traders on youtube (who understand how markets really work).

 
Zerohedge has been pounding the table about the US Treasury basis trade, which no one here has mentioned. So I'm mentioning it and here is their latest article about it. The US Treasury basis trade involves hedge funds buying a treasury bond and selling the same duration treasury future, with huge leverage 100x, for trillions of dollars of treasuries. Zerohedge has been saying the basis trade is now busted, putting the hedge funds into giant losses and forcing the hedge funds to sell the treasury bonds they bought, which drives down the treasury bond price and thereby drives up the treasury bond yield (so not China, Japan, or Europe selling their treasury bonds). The article is behind a paywall now, but it wasn't when I grabbed it.
Here We Go Again: Basis Trade Disintegrates Sending Gold, Euro, Yen Soaring, Yields Trip Bessent's "Redline" As Dollar Plummets
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Apr 10, 2025 - 06:14 PM

Here we go again.

We won't waste your time repeating virtually everything we have said in the past few days, suffice to say that we once again we find ourselves where we were on Tuesday morning, right just as the basis trade was disintegrating, as indicated by the sudden, rapid collapse in the 30Y Swap Spreads which are now where they were before Trump's pivot on Wednesday...

... which is again slamming Treasuries and pushing the 10Y yield above the so-called Bessent "red line" above 4.45%, which on Tuesday prompted Trump to pivot on his tariff vows and spark a brief relief rally...

... but just as more importantly has sent the dollar crashing in a sudden jerk spasm which saw 100DXY stops triggered, sending the dollar to the weakest level since July 2023 (as a reminder a core pillar of the Mirant Mar-A-Lago plan is just this, to nuke the strong dollar from orbit)...

... while the currencies of such prominent exporters as EU and Japan are soaring (the EURUSD briefly spiked as high as 1.1383, the highest since the start of the Ukraine war (as if Europe had found some magical source of cheap, abundant energy and was about to start making profitable cars again), assuring exports flows grind to a halt and their economies slide into recession, forcing their central banks to panic ease by either cutting or injecting much more liquidity in the system.

Since both economies are in desperate need of exporting as much as they possible can at a time when the global economy is careening into a recession, we wonder if their central banks will huddle up tonight to announce emergency liquidity injections... or wait a day or two more when it will be too late.

To be sure, equity futures are also slumping (we won't show you the chart since everyone is now tired of seeing US stocks plunging), which brings to one conclusion: as we explained on Tuesday, the collapse of the basis trade is sucking up every last bit of oxygen from the market, a market where the Emini top of book hit a record low $1 million earlier (meaning it takes a laughable, oddlotish $1 million to move spoos by 1 point)...

... and this will continue to do so until the Fed, which refuses to see the deflationary maelstrom developing before its eyes and instead is stubbornly waiting for June until Trump's tarrifs push CPI higher by 0.1%, steps in with a bailout facility. Although since said bailout will be of the hedge funds of some of the world's richest men, this may be a problem... which brings us to what DB's George Saravelos said two days ago: the only way to short-circuit the current funding crisis is to launch QE. Which of course would mean that Trump (and Bessent) win.

And now we wait to see who is the winner in the world's biggest game of chicken.
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Here We Go Again: Basis Trade Disintegrates Sending Gold, Euro, Yen Soaring, Yields Trip Bessent's "Redline" As Dollar Plummets | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
US will tariff China on everything but the 99% of what they import

Smartphones, computers, chips as well as other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, flash drives, memory cards and solid-state drives are now exempt from Tariffs.​


The ancient art of war beat the novel art of deal, which only works if your opponent is small and defenseless.

20250412_104254.jpg
 
A: Yes, things may get dire as summer approaches. Just sit tight and hang on! Goodbye.
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My theory is that markets will rebound and have a really green "summer", an epic parabolic blow out of top phase (which is usually how large cycles end). And that hands behind the scenes are aware of those cycles and are also pulling the strings of the show, which is just a show (like the tariffs), a narrative for the masses, and likely even an additional fuel to create a bigger spring for the green summer (summer is a phase of growth). Before the ultimate fall (crash of the traditional markets/end of the grand cycle which pushers and pullers behind the scenes are aware of).

Remember that almost always the majority (the thinking of the crowd) is wrong, and that is especially true in the case of the charts. Now there is so much fear, uncertainty and capitulation going on, and a bogus narrative of trade war, while at the same time stock markets chart is hugging the upper part of the historical channel and is exhibiting a similar behavior as prior to breaking out of the middle line of the channel in 1995 (sort of like a spring phase) and having a 'summer' phase until dotcom crash (fall). And take notice of what happened during 1929 bubble and crash - parabolic breakout of the channel to the upside and an epic crash that followed (breakout of the channel was a summer, which was followed by the fall). Is a parabolic breakout of the upper channel coming? A "summer" phase.

WhatsApp Image 2025-04-12 at 20.16.18_da8b54ac.jpg
 
Serendipity said:
My theory is that markets will rebound and have a really green "summer", an epic parabolic blow out of top phase (which is usually how large cycles end). And that hands behind the scenes are aware of those cycles and are also pulling the strings of the show, which is just a show (like the tariffs), a narrative for the masses, and likely even an additional fuel to create a bigger spring for the green summer (summer is a phase of growth). Before the ultimate fall (crash of the traditional markets/end of the grand cycle which pushers and pullers behind the scenes are aware of).

Remember that almost always the majority (the thinking of the crowd) is wrong, and that is especially true in the case of the charts. Now there is so much fear, uncertainty and capitulation going on, and a bogus narrative of trade war, while at the same time stock markets chart is hugging the upper part of the historical channel and is exhibiting a similar behavior as prior to breaking out of the middle line of the channel in 1995 (sort of like a spring phase) and having a 'summer' phase until dotcom crash (fall). And take notice of what happened during 1929 bubble and crash - parabolic breakout of the channel to the upside and an epic crash that followed (breakout of the channel was a summer, which was followed by the fall). Is a parabolic breakout of the upper channel coming? A "summer" phase.

View attachment 107714
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They did not say things will get better, but worse and no indication it will get better in summer for a while how the things are going and how it all comes in series and multiplying with time I am not so sure in it, would say it will be even worse in summer, but wait and see. When the clock starts ticking there is no way back.
 
Corvus said:
They did not say things will get better, but worse and no indication it will get better in summer for a while how the things are going and how it all comes in series and multiplying with time I am not so sure in it, would say it will be even worse in summer, but wait and see. When the clock starts ticking there is no way back.
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Most people are thinking like that, and that is the current narrative being used to describe this drop in the markets, which is relatively small in the grand scheme of the historical chart. And that is exactly why it will likely do the opposite (it's just an indicator, a counter indicator). Be greedy when others are fearful is a rule of the thumb when it comes to markets.

And the chart's historical behavior suggests a likelihood of the repeat of the breakout of the upper line of the historical channel (just like in 1920s but on a smaller scale), before the epic fall afterwards. The chart's history agrees with the current sentiment (overly fearful - which usually is preceding the uptrend).

A: Yes, things may get dire as summer approaches. Just sit tight and hang on! Goodbye.
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Cs message seems to point to what I see too.
- things may get dire as summer approaches = global scare before the summer/historical growth period
-just sit tight and hang on = don't be shaken by the bogus panic narrative (remember it's just a show), but sit tight and when 'summer' comes 'hang on' (like during rollercoaster ride going up? wild volatile ride upwards ahead?)

Look at the chart similarity on the large time frame (3 monthly candles) between 1920s and today. And remember charts are doing their own things and have tendency to repeat the historical patterns/fractals, and almost always the big drop (grand cycle end drop) comes after a big parabolic 'blow of top' phase (which could be described as 'summer of the markets').

WhatsApp Image 2025-04-13 at 18.50.44_60b9dafe.jpg
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And notice the years difference and that it might be a 100 year cycle coming to an end/repeating.
And also the year 2030 from the agenda 2030 fits well in the time frame of the proposed end of 'markets summer period'/the top and reversal (like it was in 1929).

Carl said:
I would caution against adopting any deeply held beliefs on how things work, especially if you're less than 10 years studying it. So many people have a view that they know it all and that the market should do this, or should do that based on the tea leaves, and they all get ruined. Many times you truly believe in something, then later you see there's a bigger picture, like russian dolls always expanding.
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I have around 8 years of studying the charts in depth. It's not 10 but I do have very high intelligence and pattern recognition skills and dot connecting skills, and I didn't just study the theory but lived through and practiced extensively and quite intensively through the market cycles and the emotional moods and narratives that accompany them (and are used to explain them), so my 8 years might be worth as someone's 20 years or more (it depends on the person). I'm confident I have knowledge/high level of understanding in this arena.

But like I said, I'm just sharing what I see (to be the most likely scenario and interpretation), it's not a gospel or a deeply held belief. More of an informed belief.
 
You might find this informative.

Armstrong gives his take on the tariffs. He says 10% tariffs are reasonable and sees the media blowing this up into fear mongering as a media political attack on Trump, the usual thing. His computer program (Socrates) predicted the major dive in the market for April 7. Covers the bonds and treasury notes to some degree. He speaks mostly about EU's situation and economic vulnerability. The threat of war sends capital out of Europe into the US for safety which makes the Dow go higher. He covers a lot of history. Much is predicated with NATO defeating Russia!
China is working on removing itself economically from US. Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan. Mostly scare tactics on economy, war looms with NATO, Iran afraid of war with US. Socrates says the Dow will continue to be high.

 
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My last few posts are gone. Ah well (why now?) I will just give a short recap. I believe this information is on point (or very near to reality). Please consider it.

What I see going on right now is the end of the grand supercycle (2+ centuries long) of the financial markets. Look at the historical chart in the screenshot from the video.
The cycles are in control of the chart and the markets.
Elliott waves (5-3 wave pattern) is the main structure of the financial chart.

Supercycle 1 (elliott wave 1) ended with a breakout of the upper line of the channel and then the big crash of the price, that went below the lower line of the channel followed (elliot wave 2).
Supercycle 3 (elliott wave 3) ended with a breakout of the upper line of the channel and then the big crash of the price, that went below the lower line of the channel followed (elliott wave 4, 1929 crash).
We are now at the ending stage of the supercycle 5 (the last wave of the grand supercycle) and like I've written in posts above, there are multiple indicators that the chart is preparing to cross the upper line of the current channel, on top of the fact that the last 2 supercycles ended the same way.

Screenshot 2025-04-14 114704.png

Cs said the summer is approaching. I believe that's the summer they are talking about - 'summer'/golden period of the markets. I believe that the chart is going to do it's thing (like it always does) according to the cycles (which are in control of the chart) and will cross the upper line of the channel just like it did at the end of the last two supercycles.

Also, based on the information I know, I believe that the narrative going on in the world right now is just the preparation of the ground (a sort of 'spring' for the coming 'summer'/end of the cycle markets boom/bloom, before the fall that will follow. I believe even Trump was told what is going to happen in the markets, hence him saying "this is a good time to buy".
Trump is just a chosen figure/player on the scene of this show (that is used to explain the natural movement of the market cycle, the very end phase of the grand supercycle). People will say "Trump brought the "golden era", but in reality it's not him, it's just the chart cycle doing its thing.

Also this being the grand supercycle coming to an end, the crash that follows the 'summer' period (blow of top/end of the cycle) will be something never seen before. And thus those running the show behind the scenes are using this exact time/cycle period for the transformation of the financial system. They are simply using the end of the grand supercycle itself as a medium/vessel for the transformation into the new system (with a new cycle). Likely the tranformation itself will be connected/timed to the fall/crash/end of the grand supercycle itself, and it will be a narrative to explain the fall itself. Likely even seen as (explanation of) what caused the drop of the stock market itself - the transfer into a new kind of system. But in reality, it is likely planned to be timed exactly at the fall itself. Remember "cycles are in control", the narrative is pasted on top of the cycles.

Is Trump about to be a progenitor of a golden era ('summer' phase of the markets). And the 'actor' in the financial system transformation itself ('fall' of the traditional markets that will follow the 'summer' and be used as catalyst for the transformation/switch to a new system)?
All I know about the way that markets work, and the way the world works (mostly all being just a grand show) is pointing to that conclusion. Once in a multiple lifetimes big long and subsequent big short opportunity. And a new kind of system with a new kind of digital money (maybe XRP playing a integral role in it).

Anyway, that's just me sharing what I see. Maybe someone finds it usefull.
 
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And this. DJI could reach up to 140k level based on the fibonacci extension levels of the 1929 top and 1932 bottom (supercycle wave 3 top and wave 4 bottom).
You can see that the price chart respected all the fibonacci levels throughout its history.
And you can see that once it crossed and retested the 1.618 (first yellow circle), the price went to 2.618. It's possibly now doing the move from 2.618 (which it retested in the second yellow circle) to 3.618 (although it might peak at 3.272 or 3.414 and not reach 3.618).
Price action and the current narrative is simply retesting the fibonacci extension 3 level at around 35-36k.
It might seem crazy, the target of 140k DJI, but the price does what the price does (it often goes to meet 3.618 level), and especially if the parabolic 'summer' phase is coming, that price is not out of the realm of possibility in the coming few years
Not a financial advise of course, but just a theory.

You can see what the price did once it successfully retested the fibonacci extension level '2' in 1995. It went on a big fast move upwards, to eventually reach 2.618 level. And the retest of the fibonacci 2 happened exactly at the same time as the price crossed the middle line of the historic paralel channel.
This time price is retesting fibonacci extension level '3', at the same time it's hugging the upper line of the historical paralel channel (and is preparing to do the final phase - the 'summer' according to my theory). IMO that's just an additional confluence.
Time will tell :)

DJI_2025-04-14_17-50-55.png

And remember, cryptocurrencies (the good ones) are correlated to the movement of the stock market (and make bigger moves in both directions depending on the direction of the stock markets). (not a financial advise).
 
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