The stock markets are already crashing

[Puma]

We are now in a 90-day pause for the application of tariffs to the world, but the war continues with China.

Goldman Sachs "rescinds their call for a recession after President Trump pauses tariffs for 90-days."

Stock market now in green. life is good again

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910044070895927724

​

 

[Niall]

Another plausible theory for Trump's trade tariffs:

Schasfoort pieces together comments (and articles/papers) by those advisors closest to Trump (Bessent & Miran).

The theory is that the current 'tariffs chaos' is a means of creating negotiating leverage with which to attract 'most-favored nations' into a 'new club' in which they agree to pegging their currency to the dollar in return for US military protection.

This, the US hopes, will ensure that the USD remains, de facto, global reserve currency. This end-goal would also formally define all participating countries as tribute-paying vassals of the US.

So, same dynamic as before under the 'neo-liberal order', just henceforth 'explicitly locked-in'. Or, "you're either with us, or you're with China!"

Theory supported by this statement from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today:

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that countries considering closer economic ties with China amid Washington’s recent draconian tariff policies “would be cutting [their] own throat.” The official expressed confidence that the US would eventually secure deals with allies, and then “approach China as a group.”

They're trying to 'lock in' as much of the world as possible to 'stop China from taking our place' as global hegemon. It's a 'coalition of the willing' to defend the American Way of Life™.

 

[Niall]

The Americans are really chuffed with themselves!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910022477373227166

I doubt the post-1971 Neoliberal Order can be so simply 'reset' by a big bluff and '75 countries accepting the new rules', but I've been surprised in the past by Americans' ability to 'will' things into reality.

 

[Carl]

The Americans are really chuffed with themselves!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910022477373227166

I doubt the post-1971 Neoliberal Order can be so simply 'reset' by a big bluff and '75 countries accepting the new rules', but I've been surprised in the past by Americans' ability to 'will' things into reality.

Trump is using what amounts to a cheap trick to fight nature for a short term gain, IMO. Of course the goal of this whole gambit was to isolate China, but it comes across as rash, you could say desperate even. It's short term thinking and might attain some quick sugar high, which is increasingly how the West deals with the world, but it won't countervail the prevailing trend of steady growth in China, the Global South and the changing world order. For that, they need all out war with China. But they still haven't finished in Ukraine, and still haven't even taken out Iran. They are way behind schedule!

Maybe he is trying to do something else in his 4D chess way, but so far he has only provided the PTB with a different version of achieving this over all goal. The agenda doesn't seem to have changed. It's possible I too am falling for his super belligerent stance on China, Iran, Yemen etc but I have my doubts that he's gonna roll any of this agenda back.

 

[Carl]

Stock market now in green. life is good again

​

Yea see.. We're probably gonna see many cycles of "IT'S SO OVER" and "WE'RE SO BACK", and it's important not to get sucked into the headlines or Youtube rabbit holes on either side of the coin. A lot of people probably wish they bought that dip and are now trapped sellers or sidelined. One thing's for sure, Trump always gives you another dip, whether it's months or just days down the line. Most likely it comes when everyone is optimistic again.

 

[michaelrc]

History rhythms.

 

[Niall]

The pro-China analysts are equally convinced that the US has gone bonkers. From Arnaud Bertrand:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910161114564001951

The full text of his post on X:

It is indeed "one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of Trump's presidency" in the sheer level of gaslighting at play: he's trying to make one of the biggest and clearest humiliations in US history look like a win.

But there's no amount of lipstick that can disguise this pig. What happened is remarkably similar to the 2022 Liz Truss fiasco in the UK: Trump came out with a remarkably foolish and terribly executed policy that created a market panic—including in the bonds market—and he had to walk it back.

But unlike the British system that—for better or worse—can get rid of woefully incompetent Prime Ministers (that is, more incompetent than the average), the U.S. is stuck with Trump.

And unlike Liz Truss, Trump remains insulated by a circle of sycophants like Lutnick who reframe humiliating capitulations as 'extraordinary' triumphs, and a voter base that interprets even his most flagrant policy failures as masterful 4D chess moves.

In fairness to Truss, she was hung out to dry by the Bank of England, which leaked her plan to 'the markets'...

Fact is, even after this retreat, the U.S. is in a far worse position than it used to be.

Contrary to what Lutnick and Trump are saying, what this episode proved beyond doubt is that the world is NOT ready "to work with President Trump to fix global trade". In fact, besides Israel's Netanyahu, I haven't seen a single country on earth come out publicly to support Trump's plan.

Sure, a couple of weaker countries who are heavily dependent on trade have reluctantly come forward to find a way to mitigate the damage Trump would do to their economies but to conflate this with enthusiastic cooperation is pure fantasy.

What we're witnessing instead is damage control by nations caught in the crossfire of his insane economic policies. And you can be sure that the long-term strategy of these countries will now be to reduce dependencies and trading links to the U.S. in order to avoid being caught in a similar situation in the future.

More importantly, the countries that together make up about 50% of trade with the U.S.—namely Canada, the EU and China—have all announced retaliatory tariffs and measures, which a) means that Trump's claim that countries other than China "aren't retaliating in any way, shape, or form against the United States" is a complete lie and b) shows that his approach has accomplished the remarkable feat of uniting geopolitical rivals in opposition to him.

Which is undoubtedly why his new approach seems to be to single-handedly focus on China, with a retreat to the good old U.S. strategy of trying to get others to help them contain China.This has zero chance of working either, for 2 main reasons.

The first one is that if Trump has demonstrated one thing in the past 3 months, it's that he's fundamentally unstable and unreliable, and so is the United States. His chaotic governance sends a clear message to the world: America's word means nothing beyond the next Truth Social post.

If the notion that a country would take the risk of putting all its eggs in the American basket was already delusional before his presidency; it is now beyond absurd. What he's done is transform America from a cornerstone of global trade into a risk factor that must be hedged against.

The second one is that the "deal" on the table for these countries is absolutely repugnant, from their standpoint.I mean, think about it: the "deal" would presumably be for these nations to abandon or significantly reduce their economic relationship with China—their largest trading partner in many cases—in exchange for a trading relationship with the U.S. that is worse than it used to be, with 10% additional tariffs. In effect it's asking countries to sacrifice their economic sovereignty and strategic flexibility for a lesser punishment.

It's a lose-lose proposition that might play well on Truth Social, but will get you laughed out of the room in the world of international relations. Unless you're say a tiny country that has the misfortune of being too weak and dependent on the American market.

But even in this latter case, these countries might amuse Trump in the short-term but they'll undoubtedly put in place long-term strategies to de-hitch themselves from the US crazy train as fast as possible in the medium term.

So all in all, what we're looking at here is not a strategic masterstroke but the desperate flailing of an administration that didn't anticipate how markets and trading partners would respond to economic coercion.

Trump has admitted that the bond market response spurred him to climb down with his "90-day pause."

Trump is "teaching the world a lesson" all right: he taught them that America is now the biggest threat they face for their prosperity and the result of this won't be to "work with him", but to hedge themselves as much as they can from the American madness he's unleashed.

History will remember this not as an "extraordinary" moment of American strength, but as the point when the world concluded that diversifying away from the American market was no longer just economically prudent but existentially necessary for their own economic security.

 

[Puma]

I think one thing Trump exposed was how easily, people with power. can manipulate markets. On Monday itself, the test was given. A fake news story gave the market a boost before a "black Monday". Quite a success indeed. Then the 90-day pause announcement gave Trump a graceful way out of the mess he got the world into. You have to be flexible, Trump told reporters when questioned about his decision.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910050567927505084

The war continues with China which he won't be able to bring to its knees so easily. Even Putin remarked that the U.S. efforts to curb China's rise are futile, comparing it to trying to stop the sun from rising, and suggesting that America is "15 years too late" in its attempts to hinder China's economic ascent.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910036056109633770

Incidentally, Russia's position so far has been stoic, that of an observer of the world stage. Putin referred to a Chinese proverb, stating, "When tigers fight in the valley, the clever monkey sits back and watches how it ends." This suggests that Putin sees Russia as strategically staying out of the fray, watching the economic conflict between the two world powers unfold.



Putin is wise unlike the white house bully.

Do nothing is the strategy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1909728273287753813

​

 

[daddycat]

Trump has admitted that the bond market response spurred him to climb down with his "90-day pause."

I read the article, and didn't see a quote from Trump admitting he acted because of the bond market.

 

[Niall]

The war continues with China which he won't be able to bring to its knees so easily. Even Putin remarked that the U.S. efforts to curb China's rise are futile, comparing it to trying to stop the sun from rising, and suggesting that America is "15 years too late" in its attempts to hinder China's economic ascent.

Can we find out when he said that? Did he say it in response to Trump's tariffs?

 

[Niall]

I read the article, and didn't see a quote from Trump admitting he acted because of the bond market.

Not a quote per se, but a reasonable inference from what he did and didn't say:

President Donald Trump has admitted that his decision to delay further tariff hikes was driven in part by a sharp downturn in US financial markets, saying he was closely monitoring investor sentiment as people grew too “yippy” and “afraid” before announcing a 90-day freeze.

On Wednesday morning, Trump urged Americans to “be cool” and told investors that “this is a great time to buy,” after US markets lost more than $1.5 trillion in capitalization the day before. The sell-off came ahead of the implementation of a 104% tariff on Chinese imports and sweeping new levies on dozens of other countries.

Just hours later, the president announced his decision to keep most tariffs at a “baseline” 10 percent – except for China, which saw its rate raised even further to 125 percent. Speaking to reporters later that day, Trump said he had been tracking the markets closely before taking action.

“I was watching the bond market. The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it’s... it’s beautiful,” he said. “But, yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy. I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy, you know? They were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit… afraid."

 

[Carl]

I read the article, and didn't see a quote from Trump admitting he acted because of the bond market.

Bond yields are inverse to the price of the bond, and US government bond yields can guide the market on over all interest rates. During last year we saw this in action, with the fed cutting their rates but bond yields remaining stubbornly high, diverging and pushing higher.

When "Liberation Day" dropped, investors fled into USTs, raising their value and pushing down yields (presumably this is the result Trump was looking for). But then a couple days in, the reverse happened. Bonds were dumped aggressively, sending yields way higher than the tariff announcement day. Presumably this was due to retaliatory action by China. There's a possibility that this is what spooked him, so Niall's comment makes sense. Anyway, if he wants yields down then he's talking nonsense, they certainly do not look "beautiful" now either, with rates still >10 basis points higher than last Thursday.

 

[Puma]

It was not China but Japan.

The main creditor of the United States, in terms of foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities, is Japan. As of the latest data from January 2025, Japan holds approximately $1.078 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, making it the largest foreign creditor. China follows as the second-largest foreign holder.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910096159835594786

 

[Puma]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910220382067384825

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910097227646665170

Grok. How much wealth was transferred from the retirement accounts of working-class people to the pockets of the ultra-wealthy by Trump’s recent tariff policies?

There is no definitive evidence to confirm an exact amount of wealth transferred from the retirement accounts of working-class people to the ultra-wealthy due to Trump’s actions over the last week.

Market fluctuations have indeed occurred recently, with reports indicating significant stock market declines following Trump’s tariff announcements. For instance, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 10.5% in the days following, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 2,200 points on April 4, 2025. Such declines would naturally impact retirement accounts like 401(k)s, which are heavily invested in stocks.

Economic analyses suggest that tariffs and resulting market volatility can disproportionately affect working-class retirement savings while potentially benefiting wealthier investors who can hedge or capitalize on such conditions. For example, wealthy individuals and institutions might profit from short-term market movements or have the resources to adapt, whereas working-class individuals with 401(k)s tied to broader market indices may see losses.

The S&P 500 Index jumped the most since 2008 following Trump’s surprise mid-day announcement, reversing steep losses over the past few days and boosting the fortunes of the world’s 500 richest people by an average 3.5 per cent. The Nasdaq Composite Index also rebounded, climbing the most in more than 24 years

The largest individual gainer Wednesday was Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk, who added $36 billion to his fortune as the EV manufacturer’s stock jumped 23%, followed by Meta Platforms Inc.’s Mark Zuckerberg, who gained almost $26 billion. Nvidia Corp.’s Jensen Huang saw his wealth rise $15.5 billion as the chipmaker’s shares rebounded 19%, nearly offsetting its 13% decline in the week to Tuesday’s close.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-09/billionaires-score-best-ever-day-as-tariff-pause-jolts-market?embedded-checkout=true

Grok fact-check the gains Bloomberg is claiming.

The $304B gain on April 9 is legit—financial reports confirm it, tied to a market surge after tariff pauses, with Musk alone gaining $36B. Wild swings!

Grok how much did billionaires lose during the market crash leading up to the claim of the largest single day gains?

Billionaires lost ~$536B over 2 days (April 3-4, 2025) due to a market crash from Trump’s tariffs.

Reports indicate that the market crash was severe, with Wall Street losing approximately $8 trillion in market value since Trump’s return to office, including nearly $6 trillion lost in just two trading sessions following the tariff announcement. Specifically, on Thursday, April 3, 2025, the world’s 500 richest people collectively lost $208 billion, marking the fourth-largest single-day decline in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index’s 13-year history and the most significant since the 2020 COVID-19 downturn. The following day, Friday, April 4, 2025, saw an additional $329 billion erased from the markets, the largest single-day reduction since the COVID-19 crisis. Together, these two days (April 3 and 4) resulted in a combined loss of $536 billion for the top 500 billionaires, as noted in posts on X and financial analyses.

Well, the ultra-wealthy haven't recovered what they have lost in the last few months but it looks promising right? This was just a foretaste of a succulent cake.

​

 

[BHelmet]

Business as usual: the markets started to rebound before the pause announcement. IOW, the news was leaked and key players liquidated their shorts and/or bought massive longs. It was both a rescue operation and It was an insider rally…no integrity…there will be no SEC investigation…no diff than Pelosi’s trading. Todays reversal is more evidence of that: no follow through on the bounce up.