The stock markets are already crashing

The Magnificent Seven suffered today (April 03) Reports indicate that their combined market capitalization dropped by approximately $800 billion during the trading session. Individual performances varied, but the overall trend for these stocks today was notably negative:​

AAPL -8.95
META -7.3
AMZN -6.93
NVDA -5.48
GOOGL -3.62
TSLA -2.87
MSFT -2.77

This was because most of the Magnificent Seven's products are manufactured in China, primarily taking advantage of cheap labor. China now faces import tariffs from the U.S. of up to 54%.

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Apple's stock fell almost 9% wiping out approximately $225 billion in market capitalization.

In the case of META, approximately 10% of Meta's total revenue came from Chinese companies advertising on Facebook or Instagram. Temu and Shein are the main companies buying advertising space from META. So it is possible that Chinese companies may reevaluate their advertising strategy. On the hardware side, Meta imports components and products from China for its Reality Labs division, which produces devices like the Meta Quest virtual reality headsets. Most of these headsets are manufactured in China.

Now, NIKE is not a technology developer and is not part of the Magnificent Seven, yet its production is 24% dependent on factories in China. Nike (NKE) had a substantial drop of 14.4%.


Will Trump succeed or will the global economy collapse in the attempt?

 
daddycat said:
1 point to get straight. Tariffs did not cause the Great Depression. The Great Depression was caused by the popping of the financial bubble mania which preceded it, and it obviously popped in 1929 as shown by the stock market crash.

Conditions are similar today in the sense that we have another huge financial bubble, and it probably popped.

The stock markets have been at or below the 200 day moving average for several weeks, and today was a bad day for markets.
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Actually there were a lot of other factors as well, most of which had to do with the incompetence of Hoover and later FDR, otherwise you could have had a quicker rebound like what happened in the last speculative bubble crash depression of 1920-1921. People forget that even though he was a Republican, he was a hard core interventionist in the economy and FDR borrowed from his public works spending ideas with his "New Deal" interventions. He not only raised tariffs, he jacked up income and corporate taxes in 1932. He specifically pressured businesses not to allow wages to drop, which was a normal response to deflationary pressures...and this predictably led to more unemployment. FDR then went crazy with the New Deal where competition was literally made illegal and other such notions. This prolonged the Depression so that it became the "Great Depression" There are numerous books chronicling this thesis with a mountain of evidence. The US did not truly come out of it until WWII.

I am okay with tariffs if done smartly. All taxes are negative externalities to an economy. Tariffs are less harmful than income taxes that literally discourage productivity and cause massive changes in behavior that are not good for the economy. Tariffs at least have national security benefits of keeping some minimal production onshore, etc. If you raise tariffs while also equally lowering taxes on income (as best possible...one of the many problems with income taxes is they are the hardest to budget for because of all the accounting games people can play; people making $10+ million a year can pay 0 taxes legally if they know what they are doing), it should be a net positive on the externality front.

However, the tariffs need to make sense. Executive order tariffs, besides violating the US Constitution (the power of tax is in Congress) are not long lasting (can be undone with a stroke of a pen) so no one has any incentive to actually build long lasting factories. And factories take time to be built. In the interim all the tariffs do is jack up prices on good with little to no production capacity in the US (which are a lot of goods these days). So you need to set tariffs to go into effect in the future, on a timeline everyone knows, so as to not create unnecessary shocks to the economy. If he did it on autos, sure assuming we have the spare capacity (we might not...). But just a straight line tariff on everything including stuff we cannot hope to manufacture in the US any time soon is just lazy and a recipe for disaster. Especially when you want to go to war with Iran (something even more stupid) which will provide even more inflationary pressures at the same time.

This only makes sense if the plan is to crash the US economy and pull and Argentina style repudiation / markdown of the debt, etc.
 
daddycat said:
It might be a good time to put on your seat belts. US Federal Reserve cut its rates by -0.50%, ending rate increases and starting rate decreases. This rollercoaster down at the end of increases and beginning of decreases has marked the beginning of many crashes.

Sept 18, 2024 -50 4.75% to 5.00%

March 3, 2020 -50 1.0% to 1.25% [covid crash]
Aug. 1, 2019 -25 2.0% to 2.25% [this was start of rollercoaster down though only -0.25% cut]

Sept. 18, 2007 -50 4.75% [housing crash]

Jan. 3, 2001 -50 6.00% [internet crash]
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It took a little longer than 6 months. Now the stock markets are below where they were on 9/18/2024 when Federal Reserve rate cut -0.50%, which was during Biden, not Trump. I sounded a crash warning then. Now has a pre-crash look, so the weekend and Monday could be ugly.
 
daddycat said:
It took a little longer than 6 months. Now the stock markets are below where they were on 9/18/2024 when Federal Reserve rate cut -0.50%, which was during Biden, not Trump. I sounded a crash warning then. Now has a pre-crash look, so the weekend and Monday could be ugly.
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Post election seasonality shows a drop in the markets from Feb/March till beginning of April and then the markets rally back. During Biden we saw the same type of scenario. What's different now is the degree of movement in a relative short period of time, which is what you typically see during a crash. The drop in the past few days is the sharpest drop in recent history but considering the overinflation we are experiencing it doesn't mean it's the worse percentage wise, though a crash is a crash. During 2008 for example, the markets dropped by 50% in that year. Covid was 30% I believe. We're seeing a 6% drop in 2 days, which is very very quick price movement and If the markets keep dropping through the following week then we're entering recession levels in the market.

I was anticipating a recession in 2026 and a normallish drop this year but all bets are off. Considering the C's warning about early summer... It's hard to say for now. It could be the beginning of a minor recession now, with implementation of next level evil shenanigans, and a bigger one next year but the markets are extremely volatile right now, so we'll see what happens soon.
 
From Trump Elected: The True MAGA Era Begins, Now What?

SummerLite said:
Boom! Trump shakes the entire world. Whats going on? Will he change course quickly into something else as we've seen before? Here's another theory, the objective is no tariffs world wide. I'm clueless, wait and see.



A very quick response from Vietnam.



No tariffs on Russia

All nations are forced to the table for negotiations. The 2nd clip came with the 1st which is what I wanted to post.

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Canada also.
 
Monday starts the margin calls, so that should help with the OWO planned collapse... all the factors in that equation seem to be aligning well, with the puppets not yet realizing they are on the cull list as well, but last, to keep them doing what needs to be done.
 
Seeing the hysteria and emotion over this everywhere, it seems people still haven't recognised the most consistent of obvious feature of Trump's negotiating style. So far it's just the same thing as 2018/19, albeit on a bigger scale.


Regarding the stock market, many people stress over every crash, but for some reason very few people ever google the actual chart to see proper context of what they're freaking out over. I present that context below, with the past 8 years of the S&P500.

1) Trump is not afraid of crashing the market short term. In the first box you'll see many crashes. They look small now due to the inflation since, but at the time they were very scary and there was much freaking out. Many of them were caused by Trump's eratic trade-war moves.

2) When it looked like it was finally over, there was much interest in stocks and nothing but optimism. They dropped COVID as a final FU, and took out the whole range, forcing everyone to sell to the big boys at a discount.

3) After the covid collapse, they expanded the money supply dramatically, leading first to inflation of asset prices, then later to commodities and consumer prices. Tech stock and crypto mania happened in this period.

4) At the back end of 2021, basically too many plebs were getting rich on tech stocks/crypto and quitting their job. This is not allowed in our system. So the fed needed to raise rates and send people back to work. Many tried to short this by betting big on volatility, so they made sure to make it as calm and managed as possible and slow-bleed it out.

5) The market was once again re-inflated by outrageous government spending, this time accompanied by the AI narrative. The movement in 2024 was on very thin volume, moving like a zombie.

6) Now we're seeing a quick unravelling of the major Biden fluff pump in the stock market. It's not a surprise to see price cut like a hot knife through butter back to the previous high volume place below 5000. Price often moves down quickly to re-test when it has previously moved up on low volume. This is true in all markets in all assets.

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To give some basic takeaways, the stock market is still higher than in 2021/22/23 and is still strongly trending up. Trump has done this exact same thing before. In the end the president doesn't control the market, the money masters do. They throw out hot takes like "DOWN 1 TRILLION" or "WORST CRASH SINCE COVID (wasn't covid a great buying opportunity?), but the context matters and you should know it.

Unless you're actively trading or deeply invested into stocks, I wouldn't worry until it breaks the yellow line. If that happens, it would look like they are finally pulling the plug.
 
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This interesting perspective from a Canadian podcast, for those interested. Is it the truth, one has to judge, but it does beg the question why now? This was posted yesterday. Lots of moving parts and all the Trump haters and MSM in the US also in Canada are writ large to take glee in the possible fall (so they think) of the Trump administration.

Stock Market Panic! Watch This Video To Learn The Truth.​

 
Carl said:
but the context matters and you should know it.
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Just one more note on context with the 100 year chart. See the structured pump that has taken place since the fed was created. Every one of those little dips could've been the end. Does it look like they don't know what they're doing?

There's a little secret when it comes to markets that no analyst with a PHD will ever mention for some reason, but all you need is 3rd grade maths.

The price of a stock index, like anything else, is not just a number but a fraction. The numerator is the asset and the denominator is the currency.

In this case you're not looking at stonks, you're looking at

STONKS
———
USD

Which equals price.

If the USD is decreasing in value, along with all global currencies, what happens to the price?

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Interesting take on how tariff's (%) are calculated even though it was labeled as 'reciprocal'.
  • It is not calculated with reciprocal %'s. It is calculated based on trade deficit balancing aim. So even if one country has 10% traffic, tariff is as high as 34%. In this calculation, what US gets in the form of tourism and services are ignored.
  • Trump is using his real estate business model which works when the interest rates are low. But currently interest rates are high. He wants to create conditions to reduce interest rates.
  • approach may be painful initially , but may provide conditions doe his aim of bringing some manufacturing back, though uncertain.
 
Jim Cramer has warned of a potential stock market crash reminiscent of the "Black Monday" event of 1987. He suggested that if Trump does not adjust his tariff policies or reach out to countries and companies adhering to trade rules, the markets could face a severe downturn similar to the one on October 19, 1987, when the DJIA dropped 22.6% in a single day. However, he also mentioned that strong U.S. job data might mitigate the risk of a recession, offering a slight buffer against a full crash.


In March 2025, the U.S. economy added 228,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This figure exceeded economists expectations, which had forecasted a gain of around 140,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate, remained relatively stable at 4.2% in March, up slightly from 4.1% in February. A rate below 5% generally means most people who want jobs can find them.

March numbers reflect a robust labor market before Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Now there is a new scenario which cannot be minimized with "trust the plan" type comments because we have to add to the analysis what we know here in the forum, an advantage that financial experts do not have.

● More severe Earth changes are coming.

● TPTB plan to collapse the economy and then rebuild it won't work, it's wishful thinking.

● Between April 3rd and 4th, billionaires lost -$536 billion of net worth. This is $83 billion MORE than March 11th and 12th, 2020. Except Warren and his cash! Someone has to pay.
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● Trump doesn't have time, he needs a third term.

●"Trump is easily misled by those of eloquent persuasion" also has blind spots like horses wear.

● Israel could lead US into conflict with Iran. A war between the US and Iran would likely have profound and far-reaching economic effects, both domestically and globally, driven primarily by disruptions to energy markets, trade routes, and broader geopolitical instability.

● Trade war. Trade disruptions or retaliatory tariffs from countries like China will start to take their toll. Trump should not minimize China, which has a millennia-old culture. The devil knows more for being old than for being a devil.

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Grok Elon Musk opposes Trump's tariffs?
Yes, Elon Musk has expressed opposition to President Donald Trump's tariffs. While Musk has been a close ally and advisor to Trump, particularly as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), he has publicly diverged from Trump’s tariff policies. On April 5, 2025, Musk advocated for a "zero-tariff situation" between the United States and Europe during a video-link interview with Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, suggesting the creation of a free-trade zone across the Atlantic. This stance contrasts with Trump’s announcement on April 2, 2025, of sweeping tariffs, including a 20% tariff on goods from the European Union, as part of his "Liberation Day" trade policy.

Musk has also criticized Peter Navarro, a key Trump trade advisor and proponent of the tariffs, on social media platform X, mocking Navarro’s credentials and economic experience. This followed a significant market downturn after the tariff announcement, which reportedly cost Musk billions in personal wealth due to Tesla’s stock decline. Additionally, Tesla, under Musk’s leadership, has warned the U.S. Trade Representative about the negative impacts of tariffs, noting in a letter that they could increase production costs and expose the company to retaliatory measures from other countries, despite Musk’s efforts to localize Tesla’s supply chain.

While Musk has not directly confronted Trump, his public statements and Tesla’s official concerns indicate a clear opposition to the tariff approach, favoring free trade over protectionism. This tension highlights a rift between Musk’s global business interests and Trump’s isolationist trade agenda.
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US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on April 06 that he sees "no reason" to anticipate a recession based on President Trump's tariffs, while Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed that April 9th tariffs will not be postponed. All of this crushed hopes of a tariff delay before the futures open.
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On officials' announcements, cryptocurrencies recorded declines:
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Absolute comedy

There was a fake news headline that Trump was supposedly going to announce a 90-day tariff pause and magically the markets in the US turned green while the previous day in Asia the markets fell mainly Hong Kong.

●The Nikkei 225 index saw a sharp decline, closing down 7.9%
●The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 7.3%
●Taiwan Taiex index closed down 9.7%
●Hong Kong's stock market closed down 13.2%, the biggest one-day drop since 1997.

The chronology so far from The Kobeissi Letter​
What just happened?

At 10:10 AM ET, rumors emerged that the White House was considering a "90-day tariff pause."

At 10:15 AM ET, CNBC reported that Trump is considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for ALL countries except for China.

By 10:18 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added over +$3 TRILLION in market cap from its low.

At 10:25 AM ET, reports emerged that the White House was "unaware" of Trump considering a 90-day pause.

At 10:26 AM ET, CNBC reports that the 90-day tariff pause headlines were incorrect.

At 10:34 AM ET, the White House officially called the tariff pause headlines "fake news."

By 10:40 AM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 TRILLION of market cap from its high, 22 minutes prior.

Never in history have we seen something like this.
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The trade war will escalate

 
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